My first Oscar predictions!

For the films of 2020
Big Magilla
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Big Magilla »

Reza, as far as I know the four leads in One Night in Miami are still being split in Amazon's ads between lead and support - the decision to place them all in support was for the Golden Globes only, although it could be a strategy that plays better for them with SAG and Oscar in the long run given the headway of the five you list plus Delroy Lindo.

A more bizarre Amazon decision was to move Uncle Frank from being a theatrical release to being a "Made-for-TV movie" for Golden Globe and Emmy consideration per ads in Variety and the Hollywood Reporter. It was nothing of the kind, but I suspect that was something that was pushed by Miramax which co-produced the film. Harvey may be gone, but his games are still being played.

Stanley Tucci, though clearly a co-lead in Supernova, has little chance of breaking into the crowded Best Actor category but if he's still listed by the film's producers as support he could well grab a SAG spot which in turn could lead to an Oscar nod there as well.

Also, Tahir Rahim, who has the title role in The Mauritanian, really is the film's lead. I don't see how they can shoehorn into support.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Reza »

A few changes / revisions since my last post

Best Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7

This list of 10 remains as before. In case The Mauritanian fizzles then Judas and the Black Messiah or First Cow get in.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yuen, Minari

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

The 6th slot: Michelle Pfeiffer, Sidney Flanigan or Andra Day. Loren is the vulnerable one on my list but I think she will get in.

Best Supporting Actor
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

All the guys in Miami are now apparently being pushed in the supporting category so have moved Ben-Adair down here. Tucci is now being pushed as a lead where I doubt he will make the list allowing Yuen, who I initially had in the 6th spot, to make my list.

Not sure if Judas comes out within the new alloted period but if it does then Daniel Kaluuya will get a slot in this category in place of Tahar Rahim. I put in Rahim on the strength of his film's trailer and the sympathetic part he plays. If the film fizzles and Judas is not released in time then Strathairn will get a nod not because he did anything exceptional in Nomadland (he was good though) but because he may get swept along with the many nods the film is bound to get.

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Foster is in on the strength of her film's trailer. If the film fizzles then Candice Bergen gets in.

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Florian Zeller, The Father
Chloë Zhao, Nomadland

I think these 5 are locked.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even livingi n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.
Interesting to be told that trying to see all the nominees before the Oscars -- something I've been doing for roughly 50 years, and that, as far as I can tell, has been attempted by most others around this site, as well -- makes me some sort of privileged person, and that it's just tough titty I can't do it this year. I can't imagine caring about who wins or loses if I haven't seen the films in question.
Nothing wrong with "trying to see" all the nominees before the Oscars. We all try and largely succeed, but seeing them all before the precursors is virtually impossible and that's the time frame we're in now.

I'm not really excited about any of the releases I've seen so far this year winning Best Picture, but that's true of a lot of years. Releasing all the films that were pushed back to 2021 would not necessarily make it any better. Denying filmmakers a chance at an Oscar this year would be tantamount to Ellen Burstyn's failed suggestion that AMPAS cancel Best Actress nominations in the 1975 Oscars. Ironically, she's not only a major contender this year, but on the verge of making history as the oldest acting nominee thus far.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by anonymous1980 »

Mister Tee wrote: I know I've advanced to Old Man Yells at Cloud status on this issue, but I truly don't see how everyone can walk around pretending this is close enough to normal not to matter. It's not remotely normal.
Yeah, it's definitely NOT a normal year, I agree.

But I disagree in canceling next year's Oscars and just cramming 2020 and 2021 into the 2022 ceremony. The Oscars are all about reflecting and celebrating the film year that was. 2020 film year definitely happened and this is a good opportunity for smaller films to be celebrated and highlighted. Sure, it will be mostly streaming premieres this year and most people will have seen most of the contenders on streaming sites but so what? You gotta work with what you have...and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. It's different for sure.

Since it's happening in April, with vaccines upon the horizon and under a more competent administration, I think it would a good idea for the Oscars to seize the opportunity to encourage people to go back to movie theaters once it's safe.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.
Interesting to be told that trying to see all the nominees before the Oscars -- something I've been doing for roughly 50 years, and that, as far as I can tell, has been attempted by most others around this site, as well -- makes me some sort of privileged person, and that it's just tough titty I can't do it this year. I can't imagine caring about who wins or loses if I haven't seen the films in question.
Big Magilla wrote:rewarding the wealth of product that has been put out there in various forms is not something we have to give up -
I'm sorry, "the wealth of product" makes me laugh. Look at what just triumphed in Boston today (and what many are predicting for the rest of the critics' awards) -- I have to assume Nomadland is a lot better than The Rider, but even dws, who was a far greater fan of The Rider than I, suggests it would go home empty-handed in a standard year. And second place to a Kelly Reichardt film? -- a director who makes films for people who don't mind being bored. A screenplay award to I'm Thinking of Ending Things, a Charlie Kaufman film that makes Synecdoche New York seem accessible. And a best actress prize to Sidney Flanigan for listless, barely verbal work -- the kind of performance sometimes praised by critics but never (in my experience) by actors.

Does anyone really think these films would be central to an Oscar race in a year with a full release schedule? (I'm bypassing Minari, because I have no idea how good or accessible it will turn out to be -- though its foreign quality makes me skeptical it'd be a truly big player.) Yes, there are a few films in the mix -- The Father, Sound of Metal, Ma Rainey -- that could yield acting nominations in any year, but even they're being inflated into major best picture players because there's so little on display. People are talking about everything from Netflix -- Mank, Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods in addition to Ma Rainey -- making the best picture slate, despite no one I know loving any of them. If my friends are any indication, The Queen's Gambit would slay them all. If an HBO MAX movie can be nominated, why not that? (Don't take this question as anything but rhetorical. I know the reasons why. Though I do note that running over multiple nights didn't disqualify OJ: Made in America.)

And, Reza, I think you're very wrong about the release schedule that might have been. Even of those you noted, we can't dismiss Dune out of hand -- not when its director got picture/director nods for Arrival, and multiple top nods of Blade Runner 2049. And I don't think you can say what films might have been added as the year went on. Everything shut down in mid-March -- numerous films still in production, had they been completed as planned, might have impressed their studios and been elevated to Oscar hopefuls by Fall. And the majors by and large passed on the festivals this year, so we don't know what sleepers might have emerged to fill out the slate. Put it this way: I doubt Nomadland would have been the unquestioned top dog if there'd been a normal festival season.

I know I've advanced to Old Man Yells at Cloud status on this issue, but I truly don't see how everyone can walk around pretending this is close enough to normal not to matter. It's not remotely normal.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.
It's only the last 2 or 3 years that I've had the luxury of watching films soon after they came out and that too not every film. Before that it would be months, and for some films a number of years, before I could see them. You guys in the West have had it so easy.

A lot of the films are now uploaded on free sites (illegally?) soon after release in pristine prints in HD.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Sabin »

Okay, NYFCC is voting soon. It's time.

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Florian Zeller, The Father

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Stanley Tucci, Supernova

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hear My Voice” / The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Rocket to the Moon” / Over the Moon
“Speak Now” / One Night in Miami
“Turntables” / All In: The Fight for Democracy
“Wear Your Crown” / The Prom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (no guts, no glory)
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

BEST FILM EDITING
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s  Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Prom

BEST MAKEUP
Birds of Prey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
The Prom
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST SOUND
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Sound of Metal
Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Invisible Man
The Midnight Sky 
Mulan
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Big Magilla »

I certainly can't afford everything, but with my DVD and Blu-ray expenditures greatly reduced, I can afford a few streaming services.

I've had Prime Video for several years, initially to pay shipping costs on Amazon purchases. I've had Netflix for a year now and recently I added Hulu because it's only $5 per month with advertising on non-Hulu originals which are initially advertising free. I also have Peacock because it's free with Xfinity but haven't found anything on it that I either haven't seen or don't wish to see.

IMDb. and of course, YouTube, allow access to streaming without charge, which is helpful for seeking out old films.

Pay Per View is something I rarely take advantage of, but it's essentially the cost of two movie theatre tickets so that isn't bad if used judiciously

HBO Max and Disney are two streaming services I see no value in, at least at present anyway.

"Because we always have" is a stupid reason to do anything. Because it's a tradition that we want to keep going if we can is the way I would put it. There are lots of things we've had to give up with this pandemic. Going out to see a movie and making a movie under these terrible conditions are certainly things that have had to be put on hold for obvious reasons but rewarding the wealth of product that has been put out there in various forms is not something we have to give up - we just have to do it in a different way. Whether that's totally virtual or in some from of people safely gathered and others in contact remotely we still don't know.

As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Reza »

Mister Tee wrote:Which leads me again to ask, why are we going ahead with all this?, and I haven't heard anyone come up with an answer beyond "because we always have".
It is certainly not a diluted year by any means. Apart from West Side Story, Dune the Bond film and a few others no major 2020 contender has been postponed to 2021. And of these only the Spielberg could have received major nods. Dune and the Bond film are lower ranked contenders if at all. The rest of the important films of 2020 are all getting a release one way or another.

I can understand the frustration of not being able to go to the cinema or not being able to afford various tv channels. Not being able to concentrate on a film at home appears to be psychological. I've been through that phase and the more you watch on tv your brain eventually adjusts to it. You can still find many of the films online for free. You just need to make an effort and accept that in many parts of the world this is how to go about watching films from now onwards until the pandemic ends.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Mister Tee »

Boston Film Critics are apparently voting their awards tomorrow (later today, actually), and it's revealing of just how distant I feel from the whole movie award thing this year that I only found out about this yesterday.

I'm sure people are tired of hearing how I can't work it up to care this year, and it seems everyone's going blithely ahead without me. But I now find a secondary problem: I don't really see how I'm going to see the majority of what movies there are this year. Stipulate that, certainly in my part of the world, movie theatres aren't opening any time between now and the projected April Oscar date. To participate in the season at anything like my normal rate, I will apparently need access to a multitude of streaming services. I have a password to Netflix, so I've seen Da Five Bloods/Trial of the Chicago 7/Mank/Hillbilly Elegy (god help us on the last). But I also evidently need: HBO MAX -- which I can't get, because I have a Roku TV, and the two behemoths can't come to agreement; Amazon Prime, which costs a hundred bucks a year (and, I find to my chagrin, you can't pay for with Amazon gift cards); the Disney channel, which is another monthly outlay...and, after that, I guess pay-per-view if they're available, at (in my area, anyway), exorbitant prices: Ammonite, which no one even thinks will be a contender, is $19.99 per this weekend. Maybe the rest of you have more disposable income than I, but I wonder if I'll be watching the Oscars from afar this year, without my usual informed knowledge. Which, after close to 60 years of devotion to seeing everything, feels like a real kick in the teeth.

That's on top of my distaste for watching everything at home -- I did everything I could to focus in on Mank (shut down my computer, made sure no one was going to interrupt me, turned off the lights), but still kept wishing I could give it the undivided focus that would come naturally in a movie theatre. And, though nobody seems to want to talk about it, the sheer dilution of competition coming from this stunted year still bothers me. Granted I've only seen the Netflix stuff, but there's not one film I'd make a best picture sure-shot in a normal year, and Lindo and Seyfried are the only performances I've seen that feel like slam-dunk nominees (though Oldman and one of the supporting players in Chicago 7 would be acceptable). All of this for a show that, the way I'm hearing Dr. Fauci talk about vaccine roll-out, will probably be done remotely, at a time when it'll still be unsafe for unmasked friends to gather for our standard party.

Which leads me again to ask, why are we going ahead with all this?, and I haven't heard anyone come up with an answer beyond "because we always have".
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by mlrg »

dws1982 wrote:Let me preface all of this by saying I don't know how it'll this year, but in a typical year, I think that on the back of the critical acclaim it would get 4-6 nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, probably Cinematography, and then maybe Score. Can't really see it expanding beyond that. Editing seems like a reach, because its pacing is very measured and deliberate throughout, although that branch doesn't always go for flashy jobs and sometimes just goes for films they like. Cinematography should be an easy nomination, but Joshua James Richards is young, this is only his fourth feature; if this were the 70's, where they would nominate "names" for any piece of junk, I'd say no chance he gets nominated, but now I would think he's got a decent shot. The score is really good, and it actually (somewhat surprisingly) has a very traditional, classical sound (this is the kind of movie that could've been wall-to-wall indie folk music and it wouldn't have been surprising), but you never know how that branch is going to go. The composer, Ludovico Einaudi, has worked for several years, but not really in American movies before (He composed a score for a Kore-Era film a few years ago), and sometimes relatively unknown composers can go all the way through to the win, but a lot of times they fall out before the nominations.

As far as wins would go, it seems like the type of film that gets nominated for several awards but doesn't win any. Screenplay isn't the type that wins; even movies that get screenplay consolation prizes tend to be more obviously written. I don't know how tightly scripted this was, but I honestly felt like it was, or at least could have been, mostly improvised. If McDormand hadn't won just a few years back, she would probably be a frontrunner, but it's not the type of performance that's going to get her a third, at least not in a typical year, although most third Oscars (by my count, all except Daniel Day-Lewis') have been given for much weaker performances than McDormand's performance here.
Ludovico Einaudi’s score is not eligible. He did not write the score specifically for the movie. In fact, during the credits, it’s stated “featuring music by...”.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by dws1982 »

Let me preface all of this by saying I don't know how it'll this year, but in a typical year, I think that on the back of the critical acclaim it would get 4-6 nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, probably Cinematography, and then maybe Score. Can't really see it expanding beyond that. Editing seems like a reach, because its pacing is very measured and deliberate throughout, although that branch doesn't always go for flashy jobs and sometimes just goes for films they like. Cinematography should be an easy nomination, but Joshua James Richards is young, this is only his fourth feature; if this were the 70's, where they would nominate "names" for any piece of junk, I'd say no chance he gets nominated, but now I would think he's got a decent shot. The score is really good, and it actually (somewhat surprisingly) has a very traditional, classical sound (this is the kind of movie that could've been wall-to-wall indie folk music and it wouldn't have been surprising), but you never know how that branch is going to go. The composer, Ludovico Einaudi, has worked for several years, but not really in American movies before (He composed a score for a Kore-Era film a few years ago), and sometimes relatively unknown composers can go all the way through to the win, but a lot of times they fall out before the nominations.

As far as wins would go, it seems like the type of film that gets nominated for several awards but doesn't win any. Screenplay isn't the type that wins; even movies that get screenplay consolation prizes tend to be more obviously written. I don't know how tightly scripted this was, but I honestly felt like it was, or at least could have been, mostly improvised. If McDormand hadn't won just a few years back, she would probably be a frontrunner, but it's not the type of performance that's going to get her a third, at least not in a typical year, although most third Oscars (by my count, all except Daniel Day-Lewis') have been given for much weaker performances than McDormand's performance here.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Sabin »

dws1982 wrote
He's good, and he's in the movie more than some people are saying, but it's not the type of performance that gets nominated.
I haven't seen the film yet. What do you project for its nomination chances?
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by dws1982 »

He's good, and he's in the movie more than some people are saying, but it's not the type of performance that gets nominated.

By design, all the performances are not flashy and are very understated, which would make it very hard for a supporting performer to get nominated. If you put Strathairn in the role played by Bob Wells, I think he'd have a better chance, because that character does something close to an Oscar clip. (But you would lose authenticity, because Wells is essentially playing himself.)
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Post by Reza »

dws1982 wrote:It's how I watched Nomadland last night.
So is David Strathairn no longer part of the conversation?
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