Coronavirus and the Oscars

[Reza]

There are now talks of the latest Bond film going either to Apple tv or Netflix. Sounds like a good idea. Why keep postponing cinema releases when this pandemic is not going to go away for a long, long time.

[Big Magilla]

I understand that potential 'Oscar Bait' films such as The French Dispatch, The Father, Nomadland & Ammonite are still scheduled for release but with COVID numbers rising almost everywhere I'm somewhat leery that those dates will even remain.

You seem to be doing what I did last week or the week before - confusing The French Dispatch with French Exit. Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch has been pushed back to 2021. The French Exit, starring Michelle Pfeiffer, closes the New York Film Festival and will be given an Oscar qualifying run in L.A. but will be out of consideration for the N.Y. Film Critics as it won't be released until February 12, 2021 which fits the extended Oscar window but not the N.Y.F.C. window which closes December 31, 2020.

Even though most, if not all, N.Y.F.C.C. members will have seen the film before then, it will not be available to the general public before their cutoff date, thus precluding their consideration.

[OscarGuy]

I added a new legend to my Oscar Hopefuls page and labeled all of the films (as of early last month) with whether they were Tentative, Eligible, Streaming, or Unknown. I have found that information quite handy in understanding what is still in contention. I have not updated for the shift of Dune, No Time to Die, or a couple of other titles that have shifted since I last updated.

[Precious Doll]

Dune has been pushed back 12 months and I can't deny that I'm disappointed because it is the only tentpole film from this year that I was actually looking forward to. The only tentpole film still schedules for release this year is Wonder Woman 1984 and there is no doubt that Warners will delay it.

Death on the Nile's international release is still going ahead at this stage.

I understand that potential 'Oscar Bait' films such as The French Dispatch, The Father, Nomadland & Ammonite are still scheduled for release but with COVID numbers rising almost everywhere I'm somewhat leery that those dates will even remain.

And on a bizarre note on Tuesday I went to the early morning session of On the Rocks and there were 20 people at the sessions. I was shocked as I am used to sitting in empty or next to empty cinemas now. Still our annual Italian Film Festival which gets bums on seats and has been doing so for decades went ahead last week and all but one session I have attended had less than 10 people in attendance. I really can't see cinemas remaining in business at least in Australia. Pandemic/financial issues/lack of product = closure within six months here I predict.

[Precious Doll]

The new James Bond movie release date has been postponed from November to April 2021

Along with many industries at the moment I wouldn't want to be running a major Hollywood studio. They are in a no-win situation and Tenet as exhibit one and Mulan as exhibit two. After those experiments the studios are going to either have to keep postponing or bite the bullet and go the Tenet way or the Mulan way on a film by film basis.

Tenet clearly showed the studios that audiences will not or cannot go to the cinema now in the numbers they need to fund big budget event motion pictures. In the case of Tenet the 'will not go' are those that are justifiably concerned about the virus. The cannot are those people living where cinemas are closed or due to the mass financial stress many people are feeling and they either can't afford to go the cinema due to loss of income or are saving their money for a very uncertain future.

Mulan like Tenet underperformed in countries where it was released in cinemas and I did read something a few days ago that the streaming template has been a huge failure.

Until such time as their is a vaccine that is both SAFE and EFFECTIVE cinemas are not going to be getting bums on seats and even then the economic wreckage which worsens with each passing day is no going to help them either - that isn't going to instantly go away.

[mlrg]

The new James Bond movie release date has been postponed from November to April 2021

[Reza]

Imagine the uproar if the Oscars had eliminated the lead actress category in 1975 as was suggested by Ellen Burstyn at the time, and moved Isabelle Adjani in The Story of Adele H and Louise Fletcher in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest to support in place of Sylvia Miles in Farewell, My Lovely and Brenda Vaccaro in Once Is Not Enough and then gave the award to Fletcher.

The year's best female lead performance in my opinion was Romy Schneider in
L'important c'est d'aimer (1975)

[dws1982]

But we also had Mary Lou Retton and other mediocrities foisted on us as Champions. This would be like those Olympics, only instead of just Russia, the entire Eurasian land mass joined in the boycott.

This is fascinating because I have no memory of this in real time (I was not yet two when these Olympics happened), and so many people still try to prop her up as the American answer to Nadia Comaneci. Retton has been firmly on the wrong side of all of the USA Gymnastics controversies over the past half-decade (the ESPN 30 for 30 podcast Heavy Medals shows how corrupt the USA Gymnastics alliance with Bela and Marta Karolyi--who Retton has always vigorously defended--was, and how that enabled a culture of abuse), so I am fine with seeing this assessment!

[Big Magilla]

In 1985, the Tonys eliminated awards for lead actor and actress in a musical and Drama Desk eliminated lead actress.

Ron Richardson, who won the Drama Desk award for lead actor in Big River, won the Tony for featured actor. Leilani Jones who was the female lead in Grind won both awards for features actress. Jones' competition for the Tony included Mary Beth Peil who played Anna Leonowens in that year's revival of The King and I opposite Yul Brynner, a true leading role if there ever was one.

Peil, who is probably best known for the TV series The Good Wife was more recently nominated for both a Drama Desk and Tony awards for featured actress as the Dowager Empress in 2017's Anastasia.

Imagine the uproar if the Oscars had eliminated the lead actress category in 1975 as was suggested by Ellen Burstyn at the time, and moved Isabelle Adjani in The Story of Adele H and Louise Fletcher in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest to support in place of Sylvia Miles in Farewell, My Lovely and Brenda Vaccaro in Once Is Not Enough and then gave the award to Fletcher.

[Okri]

This is very true. There've probably been other cases, but I recall specifically in 1984 the Best Play category was comprised of literally the only four new plays that opened on Broadway that year. (As it happens, three of them were good; the other lasted exactly 5 performances.)

Last year, Oklahoma won for Revival Of A Musical; and, the only other nominee was Kiss Me Kate, as those were the only two musical revivals to open on Broadway that season.

Heck, Sunset Blvd won two Tonys and it was the only nominee in it those categories (book and score) and won two more categories where it had only one show as competition. The Tonys also will omit categories if there aren't enough candidates.

Tee, I didn't realize how thing that 83/84 line-up was, given that, as you said, those three plays are quite good and would've been merited candidates in any field.

As for the 2020 oscars? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not even sure if I want them, truth be told.

[Mister Tee]

Okay, I'm just about talked out on this subject, which is all opinion, anyway. But I'll leave a few final thoughts:

I don't see any way in hell a potential box-office behemoth like Joker is bumped to VOD. What makes anyone think studios would forego the huge amount of theatrical revenue it would bring in?

I also think people underestimate the degree to which the traditional roll-out of non-Netflix smaller films -- like Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Jojo Rabbit -- is vital to their success. Acclaim at festivals begets significant grosses in the major cities, which creates buzz for the films when they become available for home viewing. Audience awareness of such films has much to do with their entering the conversation. Don't assume the fact that film nerds such as ourselves know about these films means anyone else does prior to their theatrical openings -- we represent no more than a tiny sliver of the target audience. Shorter: without festival & big city theatrical runs, most of America would never have heard of these little films. (And Parasite is very much in that category. Its theatrical gross turned it into the Oscar choice. Dumped onto VOD, it might well have disappeared like hundreds of other non-English language films.)

Where do you guys get the assurance that al these small movies are going to be VOD'd in time for Oscars? All I see are announcements of postponed openings; I don't see hardly anything announcing a VOD release. The entire "race" is built on assumptions.

Even say you're all right and I'm all wrong -- that every Searchlight/A24/Neon/whatever planned release goes straight to VOD and America embraces each one. It would still amount to a severely limited field. Many of you are too young to get the analogy, but I'd say it would be like the 1984 LA Olympics, where U.S. folk truly kicked ass, because the Russians (in retaliation for 1980) boycotted the games. Some of the American winners, like Carl Lewis, would have triumphed regardless. But we also had Mary Lou Retton and other mediocrities foisted on us as Champions. This would be like those Olympics, only instead of just Russia, the entire Eurasian land mass joined in the boycott. I just don't see why you'd be overly proud of that. (And, to be consistent, I'm equally dubious of the just-ahead baseball post-season. Even should my team win, I'm never going to view it as a genuine World Series victory.)

[Sabin]

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/09/the-f ... 234588501/

The French Dispatch is to exit the 2021 race. Wes Anderson is already writing and directing a new movie this coming spring. All is lost, right?

Let me put it this way: if this virus hit last year, how would the race be affected? What movies do we know would stay? The Irishman and Marriage Story, for sure. Neon is ahead enough in the game to release Parasite on demand, I'd imagine. That leaves Ford v. Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I thin it's safe to say that 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would likely get pushed back. Maybe Ford v. Ferrari as well. Would Jojo Rabbit, Joker, and Little Women go VOD? Well... the studios always thought Joker was a bit of a gamble so maybe it's likelier than we suspect, especially if it wins the Golden Lion. Let's say "Maybe." Would Jojo Rabbit? Disney was always lukewarm about the film. I'd also say "Maybe." Little Women. Bigger question mark. Given that the studios were nervous about men not being interested, I think it's also a maybe.

So, let's say two of them do. Roll of the dice. Let's say the nominees are:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
Parasite

Is there anything else in the running? Well... Bombshell, Booksmart, The Farewell, Harriet, Hustlers, Judy, Knives Out, The Lighthouse, Pain & Glory, The Two Popes, Uncut Gems.

Let's round the nominees out to eight and put it at:
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
Parasite
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems

I mean... it's not the worst lineup in the world, is it? It's certainly not as strong as the first one but it's really not bad. Brad Pitt doesn't win Best Supporting Actor but Joe Pesci does. If Joker isn't out, then maybe Adam Driver wins Best Actor or maybe Antonio Banderas? Or maybe Adam Sandler actually gets nominated for Uncut Gems, which I think could be a galvanizing moment.

Let's say Jojo Rabbit, Joker, and Little Women don't make it in. I still think a good lineup can be found as well.

Anyway, my impression of this year's Oscar race is this. Whenever we predict the Oscars in September, we're what? 30% correct? 50% correct? Whatever we think the race is going to look like, we don't know. We never do. Yes, West Side Story is being moved. Was that truly going to be in the Oscar conversation to begin with? Do we know that? It's still far too early to know if we're dealing with an abundance of riches or not. The only thing we know is that a lot of movies that may not have even been in the conversation in the first place will not be participating.

[Precious Doll]

Well I'm still living my life as full as I can. Just had some friends over the a dinner party which was an absolute pleasure minus one of the dogs trying to tug the table cloth off the dinning room table complete with contents

I suppose the concern with the Oscars being held for just 2020 'releases' are that the number of films is much reduced from regular years leading to some possible unworthy wins - but hey, we get a few of those any year so really it is doesn't matter that much. And on the plus side a couple of people who really deserve to win and may do so who might normally get overlooked in most years so there isn't that much to loose.

The rise of Netflix is disheartening but there is no use fighting against an inevitable change. At the very least some interesting historical changes about to take place. It is not every life lived that gets to experience that.

[anonymous1980]

It really is a bit difficult to celebrate anything at the moment with the carnage unfolding around much of the globe.

One needs to keep celebrating the good things. Otherwise is just negativity all around

Yes.

While I don't endorse toxic positivity, wallowing in misery isn't going to be helpful either. The arts and entertainment kept people sane in these troubled times whether it's through escapism, cheering us up or to broaden our minds and enlighten us. I think it's a good idea to celebrate and acknowledge that fact. The world is shit so it's nice to have a little frivolity and normalcy every once in a while.

[mlrg]

It really is a bit difficult to celebrate anything at the moment with the carnage unfolding around much of the globe.

One needs to keep celebrating the good things. Otherwise is just negativity all around