Stay Safe Everyone!

[Precious Doll]

What a difference a few days can make....

On Monday (ultra cheap day) we went to the cinema for an afternoon session and there would have been around thirty people scattered evenly throughout the cinema. We went to a late afternoon session and there were only four of us in the cinema and barely a soul hanging around the complex buying tickets to other films either.

Yesterday we went to lunch with two friends and the restaurant was virtually deserted. After the film today we went to a restaurant we usually go to at least one night a week and the number of people dinning was the smallest number of occupied tables we have seen at this restaurant since they reopened about seven weeks ago.

Clearly people are spooked by the outbreak in Melbourne and concerns of it spreading to Sydney. On top of that a number of cases linked to travel to Melbourne have been found in Australia's capital city Canberra. Basically the rest of the country has made it very difficult for Victorians to enter their states and territories and the lockdown of Melbourne will be for a minimum of six weeks. Things are looking bleaker In Melbourne as more cases emerge that cannot be traced back to a known source including cases emerging in hospitals and nursing homes. Populations living in towns in New South Wales on the border with Victoria on within driving distance have been ordered to remain in their towns and only to leave if absoluetly necessary. The next two to three weeks will be critical and should also expose any spread to Sydney. There is no doubt that people would have unknowingly brought the virus into Sydney but the effectiveness of testing, tracing and quarantine will determine which direction things go.

It was rather odd seeing trailers today at the cinema for A Quiet Place 2 & Tenet knowing there is no way those films will be opening in August or frankly anytime this year. I'm doubtful of 2021 release dates too.

I also note that cases are rising in lots of countries that had reasonably successfully contained the virus such as Austria, Hong Kong, Israel & Japan. Things are not looking good almost everywhere. Through in the economic wreckage (which as Sweden illustrates) happens now matter what action a nation takes.

[Precious Doll]

mlrg, I would ask you to compare Sweden with other Scandinavian countries and compare the economic impact to not locking down and having more deaths.

Even in my most nihilistic moments I didn't imagine this course for the USA.

Indeed: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/busi ... virus.html

By the way the New York Times is offering unlimited access to articles relating to the coronavirus. All you have to do is sign-up and doesn't cost anything.

[Okri]

mlrg, I would ask you to compare Sweden with other Scandinavian countries and compare the economic impact to not locking down and having more deaths.

Even in my most nihilistic moments I didn't imagine this course for the USA.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I'll repeat something I said at the beginning of this pandemic: if Hillary Clinton had been president, she'd have acted much earlier -- maybe January, certainly February -- and saved a significant number of the lives we've instead lost. But she'd be pilloried by the entire right-wing-o-sphere, and the economic downturn -- an unavoidable side effect of the shutdown -- would be laid at her feet and likely lead to her defeat in November. And a big selling point would be, she caused all this damage and not all that many people even died.

Yes, she'd save countless lives. And yes, she'd lose in a landslide.

Because it's clear as day (as we withdraw from W.H.O. as I write this), that the only unifying governing philosophy of the right is a feedback loop of whataboutism and nativist Othering.

SIDE-NOTE: I cannot believe I'm about to see this so soon again in my lifetime. During the sad end of the George W. Bush administration when the Great Recession was starting up, the right-wing suddenly developed amnesia (or Romneysia as it was called during 2012 DNC) about who was in power when our financial structures collapsed. The instant the Democrats (and a black guy with a scary name) took over, the right-wing turned into a bunch of deluded Nativists. I can see it happening right now. While Orange Nero fiddled, it's somehow the Democrats fault, except this time the Nativism isn't even hiding under a Tea Party hat. It's wearing a Trump/Pence 2020 legit Nazi shirt in a Politico article apparently actually discussing the prospect of a Tucker Carlson candidacy in 2024.

Maybe the reason our country is falling apart is because everybody currently running it an asshole!

I honestly don't blame other countries for blocking our entry.

[Mister Tee]

So Melbourne will lockdown 5 million people due to having 0,02% of its population infected in the span of several weeks?

You read these statistics like those numbers will freeze in place and not go up. And that's not the case.

It's amazing how many people don't have the mathematical ability to grasp exponential growth.

You may be familiar with this analogy: put one grain of rice on square one of a chess board, twice that in square two, twice the amount in square two in square three...so on, always doubling the previous amount. You'll crack a million before you get through the third row. THAT'S exponential growth.

And, of course, the problem with being successful with shutting down that growth (by extreme sheltering-in-place) is that, the greater your level of success, the more people say, This didn't amount to anything, why did we bother? The same way no one gives you credit for lives saved from foiled terrorist attacks.

I'll repeat something I said at the beginning of this pandemic: if Hillary Clinton had been president, she'd have acted much earlier -- maybe January, certainly February -- and saved a significant number of the lives we've instead lost. But she'd be pilloried by the entire right-wing-o-sphere, and the economic downturn -- an unavoidable side effect of the shutdown -- would be laid at her feet and likely lead to her defeat in November. And a big selling point would be, she caused all this damage and not all that many people even died.

[Sonic Youth]

So Melbourne will lockdown 5 million people due to having 0,02% of its population infected in the span of several weeks?

You read these statistics like those numbers will freeze in place and not go up. And that's not the case. On March 16th, my state closed all schools. On that day, there were 197 reported cases and no deaths. Some people were mystified by this decision. (I thought it came too late.) Two weeks later, on Mar. 30th, there were 5,752 cases and 56 deaths. Two weeks after that, on Apr. 13th, there were 26,867 cases and 844 deaths. Two weeks after that, Apr. 27th, there were 56,462 cases and 3,003 deaths. The rate declined after that, and today we have far fewer active cases than before. But even so, we have a cumulative total of 104,659 cases and 7,953 deaths. I wonder what the numbers would be if didn't take these "draconian" steps, or if we waited 2 or 4 weeks later to take them?

[Precious Doll]

So Melbourne will lockdown 5 million people due to having 0,02% of its population infected in the span of several weeks?

Based more so on the increases in the last week. 191 positive results (all from community transmission) for tests conducted on Monday which may not seem like many but all indications are if left as is the virus will spiral completely out of control within a fortnight.

[mlrg]

So Melbourne will lockdown 5 million people due to having 0,02% of its population infected in the span of several weeks?

[Precious Doll]

An awful lot can happen in less than a week with COVID.

The situation has continued to deteriorate in Melbourne to the point that the city and surrounding areas are going into a six week lockdown from Wednesday morning. I believe over the last three to four weeks over six hundred people have become infected and the contact tracing is becoming harder to maintain even with assistance with states who thankfully have very little work to do in their own states. Lockdown is the only way Melbourne can avoid a mass of hospitalisations and the deaths that go with them. In the last month Melbourne as had 1,139 cases, most of them community transmissions. I suspect the Government will abandon the 'suppression' strategy with an 'elimination' strategy' but I have no doubt it will sneak back in some how.

The state border between New South Wales and Victoria will be closed from midnight tonight with the army brought into to administer any border crossings (they will also be assisting with the lockdown in Melbourne). There are numerous towns along the border and people in those areas need to cross over for numerous reasons on a regular basis (school, shopping, medical services, employment). But beyond those people there is to be very limited crossing of the border.

Another dire development for Australia & New Zealand is that so many people are trying to return home from overseas that it becoming impossible to quarantine them all at the rate that it is going. As a result New Zealand are only allowing a limited number per day. The same applies to Australia which has the added dilemma that no international flights are allowed into Melbourne indefinitely and the other states are not in a position to take up the slack due to the increasing numbers.

[Greg]

If you have the time, here is a greatly informative and inspiring 51-minute-web presentation and Q&A with Prof. Sarah Gilbert from the Jenner institute:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKNavonhXyk

One thing that struck me was how much they were able to build on vaccine work done with MERS and SARS-1, two earlier coronaviruses. This had a lot to do with the speed for developing a Covid-19 vaccine, as they already had a large head start when it broke.

[Precious Doll]

Reading the posts here are very depressing but essential. Everybody's lives have changed to various degrees and it does give a sense of comradeship.

Meanwhile, the USA just purchased the world’s next three -month supply of a drug that improves healing, leaving basically nothing for everyone else. Now, the American approach is unsurprising – Trump’s life is strictly zero-sum. And frankly, given the way they’re headed, I think they probably need it more anyway. It inspired a moment of rage (and I genuinely wonder, based on comments I’ve read here and elsewhere, if Americans understand the damage done) but that passed.

I read about that yesterday. The drug is called Remdesivir and it not only helps some people recover faster it also prevents about one in five deaths. I believe Germany have a good supply of the drug and I know Australia has a huge stockpile of it already. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of Western countries have varying degrees of the drugs avaiable also. I understand that India also has the capacity to manufacture the drug so we'll see what happens.

On the vaccine front I have little hope for most of the ones being explored across the globe. There is one exception and that is a drug developed by the University of Queensland. They have been working on a drug for the 'common cold' for some time know and they expected to have a vaccine for that by the end of next year. Naturally all resources have been now funnelled into a vaccine for COVID-19. They have just started human trails. It would be a real coup for Australia but more importantly if successful the vaccine will be made available worldwide - there will be no hoarding or money games with the making and distribution of a successful vaccine out of Australia. Common decent humanity will come first. Heavens help us if a vaccine is created by China, Russia or the US under Donald Trump. I fear they'll hold the rest of the world to ransom.

[Big Magilla]

And then there's the broader economic impact. A small snapshot, but I just heard today from an actor friend that his long-time agent is folding up her business. She's tried to keep things afloat without income, but her rainy day fund has been depleted, and she sees no prospect of any entertainment business being generated in the foreseeable future... so, she's calling it a career. This in turn leaves my friend, and all her other clients, adrift -- as well as her younger employees who aren't in Social Security range but are suddenly without their positions. This sort of thing is happening on a grand scale, in all businesses, and until the virus is under control, it's not going to get better and could, in fact, get considerably worse. As FL/TX/AZ/CA are about to find out.

I hear stories like this all the time now. They're heartbreaking, but the it's the young people I feel the sorriest for.

I think of my 23-year-old nephew in the Dallas area who spends most of his time these days posting support for the Black Lives Matter movement. His mother (my 62-year-old sister) works from home, but his immune compromised father, who had been working from home, was forced to go back to work in Dallas on June 1. His immune compromised 29-year-old brother is also home. His 27-year-old brother works from home in New York's East Village. When he does go to his office in midtown, he walks so he's fairly safe.

When the family lived near me in California from 2003-2009, I spent a lot of time with them, especially the 23-year-old who was then 6-12. Because there were no school buses in the town in which they lived, I picked him up from school every day when he was in 4th and 5th grades and kept him busy until his mother picked him up from her way home from work. He spent a lot of them time watching movies with me. He was the only kid I've known in recent years who liked old black-and-white movies and even silent films, as much as he liked contemporary films. Anyway, when he entered college as pre-med student, I wasn't surprised that he went for a minor in theatre. When he dropped out of pre-med, he went for dual majors in computer science and theatre. He joined an improv troupe at his college which even performed once professionally and did a marathon You Tube program with the troupe remotely the week before graduation in May.

He had a night job lined up with an improv troupe in Fort Worth and has been looking for a day job in the area in computer science, all of which is on hold now as is his dream of moving to Chicago in another year to become involved with one of the improv troupes there.

[Big Magilla]

Okri wrote
- My mother (70) is immuno-compromised. We have a weird history of lung disease in our family. Her mother was claimed by a mysterious lung ailment when she was younger than my mother is now. She's a prime target for the Coronavirus. These are sad times because she was emotionally recovering from her divorce from my father and wanted to start dating and maybe move out to Los Angeles to be with my sister and me. I'd like to get tested for COVID and go visit her but I'm still afraid I might somehow infect her. So, we Zoom.

Sabin, I'm sure those Zoom calls make your mother's day. Don't even think about a face-to-face visit until things have gotten a lot safer. When you do go, make sure it's by car, not plane.

[Mister Tee]

This pandemic is just so bad, and the various things people have posted here point out how widespread the damage is. First and foremost is of course the health crisis. Right now, you can draw a line across a U.S. map from Southern California to North Carolina, and assume that anything from there south is a hot zone. (Except for little New Mexico, which must be wondering how long it can forestall contagion.) I feel so bad for Sabin's family, being right in the thick of it. The only encouragement I can offer is that, not long ago, my family was in that scary place -- I'm in NYC, my parents in CT -- and now we're in maybe the safest part of the country. (Though I still haven't seen my parents since Christmas, and am not sure when I'll be adventurous enough to brave a subway/railroad trip to get up to see them.)

Second is the logistics of trying to somehow go on with life, which is what dws is confronting. A friend of mine is in the Psych department at University of Florida/Gainesville, and he said, as at dws' school, student athletes were brought back on campus, resulting in significant infection spike. It appears far too many younger folk absorbed that early (not entirely true) info that the virus wouldn't be any big deal for the young, so a lot of them have been out partying like the Spring outbreak never happened. I appreciate that schooling, maybe beyond everything else, needs to have as much continuity as possible, that students are being deprived of things they may never get back if this goes on much longer. But the bald fact of how opportunistic this virus is cuts against hopes of clinging to normality.

And then there's the broader economic impact. A small snapshot, but I just heard today from an actor friend that his long-time agent is folding up her business. She's tried to keep things afloat without income, but her rainy day fund has been depleted, and she sees no prospect of any entertainment business being generated in the foreseeable future... so, she's calling it a career. This in turn leaves my friend, and all her other clients, adrift -- as well as her younger employees who aren't in Social Security range but are suddenly without their positions. This sort of thing is happening on a grand scale, in all businesses, and until the virus is under control, it's not going to get better and could, in fact, get considerably worse. As FL/TX/AZ/CA are about to find out.

I could devote a fourth paragraph to the paralyzed leadership around the country, but for once I'll leave that be. (I'm sure I'll get to it again before long.) For right now, just the general awfulness is enough to fill the plate.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Arizona is becoming the new Lombardy with who gets health care resources in hospitals.

My whole family lives in Arizona. This is a terrifying new reality for me.

- My grandparents are 100 and 92 in a very posh retirement home. They're not permitted to leave their room and they are slowly driving each other insane. My Grandfather has failing eyesight and hearing while my Grandmother, a Holocaust survivor, is slowly succumbing to pre-Alzheimer's dementia. They've made their peace with the fact that they likely won't see their family in person again. Thank God for Zoom.

- My father (68) is a hospitalist who dresses in a full Outbreak suit every day for work. He had dreams of retiring that are vanishing from view as elective surgery dwindles. He's very healthy man who has taken it in stride that he has a 1.5% chance of dying. He'll probably be fine.

- My mother (70) is immuno-compromised. We have a weird history of lung disease in our family. Her mother was claimed by a mysterious lung ailment when she was younger than my mother is now. She's a prime target for the Coronavirus. These are sad times because she was emotionally recovering from her divorce from my father and wanted to start dating and maybe move out to Los Angeles to be with my sister and me. I'd like to get tested for COVID and go visit her but I'm still afraid I might somehow infect her. So, we Zoom.

This year is terrifying.