Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

OscarGuy wrote:The people who are predicting Redford to win are probably the same people who keep saying that the year's aging star will take home the Oscar because they are beloved and that is seldom true.

That's always been my contention over and over and yes, I'm always proven wrong

Yet I'm still hoping for a Redford win.

And no I haven't seen his performance. I'm like most of the older Academy members who vote for friends without having seen any or all of the performances.

The people who are predicting Redford to win are probably the same people who keep saying that the year's aging star will take home the Oscar because they are beloved and that is seldom true.

The Original BJ wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:I really don't see anyone beating Ejiofor either, although I wouldn't completely rule out a history making win for Robert Redford, whose nomination alone will set a new record for years between nominations at 40 breaking Helen Hayes and Jack Palance's 38 year spans. A win would make him the first actor/director winner as well. I'm not sure how many AMPAS members think he should have that distinction, especially in light of such strong competition from Ejiofor.

Have you seen All is Lost yet, Magilla? I thought that what Robert Redford did in the movie barely even qualified as a performance. A lot of people have been talking him up as a possible winner, but that's just about unfathomable to me.

Haven't seen it, not expecting a Redford win either.

Mister Tee wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:I really don't see anyone beating Ejiofor either, although I wouldn't completely rule out a history making win for Robert Redford, whose nomination alone will set a new record for years between nominations at 40 breaking Helen Hayes and Jack Palance's 38 year spans.

Research fail: Henry Fonda, 41 years.

Not research, just faulty memory.

Big Magilla wrote:I really don't see anyone beating Ejiofor either, although I wouldn't completely rule out a history making win for Robert Redford, whose nomination alone will set a new record for years between nominations at 40 breaking Helen Hayes and Jack Palance's 38 year spans. A win would make him the first actor/director winner as well. I'm not sure how many AMPAS members think he should have that distinction, especially in light of such strong competition from Ejiofor.

Have you seen All is Lost yet, Magilla? I thought that what Robert Redford did in the movie barely even qualified as a performance. A lot of people have been talking him up as a possible winner, but that's just about unfathomable to me.

Big Magilla wrote:I really don't see anyone beating Ejiofor either, although I wouldn't completely rule out a history making win for Robert Redford, whose nomination alone will set a new record for years between nominations at 40 breaking Helen Hayes and Jack Palance's 38 year spans.

Research fail: Henry Fonda, 41 years.

I just don't believe in"calling" categories while major films are entirely unseen (American Hustle, Wolf of Wall Street) or not yet exposed to audiences (Her, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis). Winslet '08, Bullock '09, Bale & Leo '10 are all recent examples of winners not near-established by this point (Waltz last year wasn't even a clear nominee till the January announcement).

I don't see anyone other than Nyong'o winning this. Winfrey and Spencer will likely be nominated, but neither is nearly as strong a winning candidate this year.

All of the non-black a actresses being mentioned in the blogosphere, including Margo Martindale; June Squibb and Sally Hawkins, remain question marks even so far as a nomination is concerned. We could conceivably even see our first "voice" nominee in Scarlet Johansson (Her).

There will likely be five black performers nominated this year - also a record. Chiwetel Ejiofor and Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) are the others.

I really don't see anyone beating Ejiofor either, although I wouldn't completely rule out a history making win for Robert Redford, whose nomination alone will set a new record for years between nominations at 40 breaking Helen Hayes and Jack Palance's 38 year spans. A win would make him the first actor/director winner as well. I'm not sure how many AMPAS members think he should have that distinction, especially in light of such strong competition from Ejiofor.

For Abdi, the nomination will be deemed enough. Supporting Actor is strictly between Michael Fassbender and Jared Leto.

I'd say she's better than anyone else I've seen -- she makes a vivid impression -- but I was a bit surprised at how little screen time she has. If you stacked all her scenes together, I doubt they'd run more than 15 minutes. If, say, someone like June Squibb has a more dominant role, that might count. (Oprah obviously DOES have a considerably larger role, and is better than usual, but it's hard to see people choosing her lite-FM portrayal over Nyong'o's)

I think it's indeed possible Winfrey/Nyong'o/Spencer all get nominated, which would represent just the high water mark BJ suggests. In that situation, though, I'd dread the recrminations we might hear from pundits like Sasha Stone were one of the other (Caucasian) nominees to win.

flipp525 wrote:

The Original BJ wrote: Overall, I'm generally very much in line with Mister Tee -- I thought the movie was quite good, though not at the masterpiece level many critics found it to be.

BJ - Do you see anyone being able to top Lupita Nyong'o's performance in the Best Supporting Actress race? Yeah, it's super early but I really just can't. She seems like a runaway frontrunner to me. (And you just know that if she wasn't in direct competition with her, Oprah would be all over the place promoting this film and Nyong'o.)

Quality-wise, not really. (I guess of the possible hyped contenders, I'm missing Jennifer Lawrence & June Squibb, along with any candidate that comes from nowhere, so I won't stake my claim on a favorite just yet for sake of fairness.)

Oscar-wise, I don't know. But an Oprah vs. Lupita race would be exciting just simply based on the fact that it would pit one of the titans of the entertainment industry vs. an actress few people had ever heard of until last week. Talk about a unique race. That they would both be black actors would be another exciting wrinkle, especially if Octavia Spencer also joins them on the ballot. (That would be a first, right? Three black actors nominated in the same acting category?)

The Original BJ wrote: Overall, I'm generally very much in line with Mister Tee -- I thought the movie was quite good, though not at the masterpiece level many critics found it to be.

BJ - Do you see anyone being able to top Lupita Nyong'o's performance in the Best Supporting Actress race? Yeah, it's super early but I really just can't. She seems like a runaway frontrunner to me. (And you just know that if she wasn't in direct competition with her, Oprah would be all over the place promoting this film and Nyong'o.)

I live in BFE, so it's not likely to show here for awhile.

flipp525 wrote:I guess no one's really seen this yet besides Tee?

I have, but just haven't had a chance to comment yet. And I think this one requires some detail.

Overall, I'm generally very much in line with Mister Tee -- I thought the movie was quite good, though not at the masterpiece level many critics found it to be.

I guess no one's really seen this yet besides Tee and me?

Mister Tee wrote:

mlrg wrote:If it finally goes down between this and Gravity, who do you think will take best picture?

12 Years seems to have all the makings of a best picture -- weighty subject, great reviews, strong box office. But of course one could have said the same of Lincoln last year.

Oddly, if one thinks about a split (unlikely, as always), Gravity/McQueen would fit the pattern better (tough subject matter wins director, popular favorite takes best picture). But, thinking of Cuaron's work as more bravura, I'd prefer it the other way around.

There's so much excitement over these two films, Captain Phillips' excellent reviews and easy road to $100 million barely register. Plus we have two advance-acclaimed films by Oscar veterans (Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska), a wildly touted foreign entry (Blue), and as yet unseen efforts by Scorsese, Clooney and David O. Russell. Can you imagine, if we were still in the five nominees era, how interesting this race would be?

Also add Saving Mr. Banks, who whas the "feel good Hollywood history" behind it and that can spoil the race.

Mister Tee wrote:

mlrg wrote:If it finally goes down between this and Gravity, who do you think will take best picture?

12 Years seems to have all the makings of a best picture -- weighty subject, great reviews, strong box office. But of course one could have said the same of Lincoln last year.

I also can see a scenario where 12 Years wins three acting awards.