Oscar Predictions Contest!

For the films of 2012
dws1982
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby dws1982 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:06 pm

Greg wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:I wonder if dws or some other math-inclined mind could tell me if my instinct is correct here: that, under these rules, whatever one gains from the stray single points for runners-up is offset by the point one effectively loses for every runner-up designated. Which is to say, I wonder if shooting for the 3-points you’d get for any correct prediction is a better strategy than hedging your bets. (Note that rolotomassi won the Globes contest in precisely that way) I’m going to do separate tabulations and see which way works best this year.


It is all relative to how well your picks for winners do compared to your picks for runner-ups. As an extreme example, if none of your choices for winner wins, but every one of your choices for runner-up wins, you would do much better from hedging.

True...I would guess say that your best option, and the way to truly hedge your bets, would be to only use a runner-up where you feel like you must. There's a definite balance point between being too cautious and and not cautious enough. This year, I would say that caution is the slightly better bet, because here we are on Oscar day, and no one can say with any certainty who will win Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and several below the line categories. (And would you be willing to bet the farm on Picture, Adapted Screenplay, etc.?) If you go all the way with DeNiro in Supporting Actor, and he loses, then you've got nothing for that category. But if you go DeNiro and your runner-up wins, you at least get something. So my advice would be only use runners-up when you're equally split between two nominees. It's tough, especially in a year like this one. Last year or the year before, I would've been fine with only a few runners-up, but this year, so many categories are still up in the air.

So, all that out of the way, here are my picks. The lack of runners-up in a lot of categories doesn't meant I'm confident about those picks. Basically what I did was this: If someone asked me what was going to win Best Picture, I would answer Argo. Not confidently, but I would have an answer. Same thing with Lawrence in Best Actress. So if I can give an answer, I'm not going to put a runner-up. If my answer would be "I don't know", then I give a runner-up.

Picture
Argo

Director
Steven Spielberg (I SHOULD go with a runner-up, but I can't think of any reason to put Lee over Haneke over Russell...none really make sense)

Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis

Actress
Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro (RU: Tommy Lee Jones)

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway

Original Screenplay
Amour (RU: Django Unchained)

Adapted Screenplay
Argo

Cinematography
Life of Pi

Editing
Argo

Score
Life of Pi

Song
"Skyfall"

Production Design
Anna Karenina

Costume Design
Anna Karenina

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables (RU: Life of Pi)

Sound Editing
Life of Pi (RU: Skyfall)

Visual Effects
Life of Pi

Makeup
The Hobbit

Foreign Film
Amour

Documentary Feature
Searching For Sugar Man

Documentary Short
Redemption (RU: Innocente)

Live Action Short
Death of a Shadow (RU: Curfew)

Animated Short
Paperman (RU: Head Over Heels)

Animated Feature
Brave (RU: Wreck-it-Ralph)

Mister Tee
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:55 pm

Hey, Heksagon. Seems like even longer since we hard from you. Welcome back.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:11 pm

Welcome back. Watch as you win.
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Heksagon
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Heksagon » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:48 pm

Hi, everyone. I used to visit this board frequently years ago, but I haven't been here in... is it two years? I suppose this is a good time to check what the board looks like these days.

In any case, here are my predictions. I haven't followed the awards race very closely this year, but on the other hand, it never really helped me in the past when I did do so...


Picture: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Robert De Niro
Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway
Director: Ang Lee
Original Screenplay: Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Foreign Language: Amour
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Les Misérables
Costume Design: Les Misérables
Makeup: Les Misérables
Original Score: The Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: The Life of Pi
Visual Effects: The Life of Pi
Documentary Feature: Looking for Sugar Man
Documentary Short: Open Heart (Inocente)
Short Animation: Paperman (Adam and Dog)
Short Live Action: Asad (Curfew)

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:28 pm

Even before Mister Tee's post, I was planning to play go big or go home with this thread.

Picture: Argo
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Original Screenplay: Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Original Song: Skyfall
Original Score: Life of Pi
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Film Editing: Argo
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Short: Open Heart
Live Action Short: Curfew

Greg
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Greg » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:18 pm

Mister Tee wrote:I wonder if dws or some other math-inclined mind could tell me if my instinct is correct here: that, under these rules, whatever one gains from the stray single points for runners-up is offset by the point one effectively loses for every runner-up designated. Which is to say, I wonder if shooting for the 3-points you’d get for any correct prediction is a better strategy than hedging your bets. (Note that rolotomassi won the Globes contest in precisely that way) I’m going to do separate tabulations and see which way works best this year.


It is all relative to how well your picks for winners do compared to your picks for runner-ups. As an extreme example, if none of your choices for winner wins, but every one of your choices for runner-up wins, you would do much better from hedging.
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Mister Tee
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:04 pm

I wonder if dws or some other math-inclined mind could tell me if my instinct is correct here: that, under these rules, whatever one gains from the stray single points for runners-up is offset by the point one effectively loses for every runner-up designated. Which is to say, I wonder if shooting for the 3-points you’d get for any correct prediction is a better strategy than hedging your bets. (Note that rolotomassi won the Globes contest in precisely that way) I’m going to do separate tabulations and see which way works best this year.

Anyway, mine:

Film: Argo (ru: Lincoln)
Actor: Daniel Day- Lewis (Lincoln)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) (ru: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour))
Sup. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) (ru: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained))
(And I still might miss it)
Sup. Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Director: Ang Lee (Life of Pi )(ru: Steven Spielberg(Lincoln)
Ad. Screenplay: Argo (ru: Lincoln)
Or. Screenplay: Amour (ru: Zero Dark Thirty)
Song: Skyfall
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Production Design: Les Miserables (ru: Anna Karenina)
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty (ru: Life of Pi)
Editing: Argo
Score: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Makeup: The Hobbit (ru: Les Miserables)
Foreign Film: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-it Ralph (ru: Frankenweenie)
(the qualm I have about Ralph is I wonder if older voters will find its video game references bewildering)
Doc. Feature: Searching for Sugar Man (ru: How to Survive a Plague)
Doc. Short: Inocente (ru: Open Heart)
Animated Short: Paper Man (Adam and Dog)
Live Short: Curfew (ru: Asad)

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:00 am

PICTURE: Argo
DIRECTOR: Ang Lee (Michael Haneke)
ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones (Robert De Niro)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour (Zero Dark Thirty)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo
ORIGINAL SCORE: Life of Pi
ORIGINAL SONG: Skyfall
EDITING: Argo (Life of Pi)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Anna Karenina (Les Miserables)
COSTUMES: Anna Karenina
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: The Hobbit (Les Miserables)
SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables
SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
FOREIGN LANGUAGE: Amour
ANIMATED FEATURE: Wreck-It-Ralph
ANIMATED SHORT: Paperman
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Buzkashi Boys (Curfew)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Open Heart
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Searching for Sugar Man
Last edited by Franz Ferdinand on Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Reza » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:34 am

PICTURE: Argo (Life of Pi)
ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis (Joaquin Phoenix)
ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva (Jennifer Lawrence)
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert De Niro (Tommy Lee Jones)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway (Sally Field)
DIRECTOR: Michael Haneke (Ang Lee)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour (Zero Dark Thirty)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln (Life of Pi)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi (Skyfall)
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Misérables (Anna Karenina)
SOUND MIXING: Les Misérables
SONG: Skyfall
SCORE: Life of Pi
EDITING: Zero Dark Thirty (Life of Pi)
COSTUMES: Anna Karenina
MAKEUP: The Hobbit (Les Misérables )
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
SOUND EDITING: Zero Dark Thirty (Life of Pi)
ANIMATED SHORT: Papermen (Adam and Dog)
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Asad (Curfew)
DOC SHORT: Open Heart
DOC FEATURE: Looking for Sugar Man (How to Survive a Plague)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
ANIMATED FEATURE: Wreck-It Ralph
Last edited by Reza on Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.

FilmFan720
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby FilmFan720 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:26 am

Best Picture: Argo (Lincoln)
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (Ang Lee, Life of Pi)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (Emmanuelle Riva, Amour)
Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained (Amour)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo (Lincoln)
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Best Film Editing: Argo (Life of Pi)
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi (Skyfall)
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina (Life of Pi)
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (Mirror Mirror)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Les Miserables)
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi (Skyfall)
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (A Royal Affair)
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It-Ralph (Frankenweenie)
Best Animated Short: Paperman (Head Over Heels)
Best Live Action Short: Asad (Henry)
Best Documentary Short: Open Heart (Inocente)
Best Doctumentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby ksrymy » Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:40 pm

PICTURE: Argo (Lincoln)
ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence (Emmanuelle Riva)
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones (Robert De Niro)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg (Ang Lee)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour (Django Unchained)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln (Argo)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Misérables
SOUND MIXING: Les Misérables
SONG: Skyfall
SCORE: Life of Pi
EDITING: Argo (Zero Dark Thirty)
COSTUMES: Les Misérables
MAKEUP: Les Misérables
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi
ANIMATED SHORT: Paperman (Maggie Simpson)
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Asad (Curfew)
DOC SHORT: Open Heart
DOC FEATURE: Looking for Sugar Man (How to Survive a Plague)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
ANIMATED FEATURE: Frankenweenie (Wreck-It Ralph)
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:39 am

PICTURE: Les Misérables (Argo)
ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva (Jennifer Lawrence)
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones (Christoph Waltz)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway (Sally Field)
DIRECTOR: Michael Haneke (Ang Lee)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour (Zero Dark Thirty)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln (Argo)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi (Skyfall)
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Misérables (Anna Karenina)
SOUND MIXING: Les Misérables
SONG: Skyfall (Pi's Lullaby)
SCORE: Life of Pi (Lincoln)
EDITING: Zero Dark Thirty (Life of Pi)
COSTUMES: Les Misérables (Anna Karenina)
MAKEUP: Les Misérables
VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi
ANIMATED SHORT: Papermen (Adam and Dog)
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Asad (Curfew)
DOC SHORT: Open Heart
DOC FEATURE: Looking for Sugar Man (How to Survive a Plague)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
ANIMATED FEATURE: Wreck-It Ralph

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby criddic3 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:45 pm

Picture: Argo. Runner-up: Silver Linings Playbook.
Director: Spielberg. Runner-up: Russell.
Actor: Day-Lewis.
Actress: Lawrence. Runner-up: Riva.
Supp. Actor: De Niro. Runner-up: Jones.
Supp. Actress: Hathaway.
Orig. Screenplay: Django Unchained. Runner-up: Zero Dark Thirty.
Ad. Screenplay: Lincoln. Runner-up: Silver Linings Playbook.
Prod. Design: Life of Pi. Runner-up: Les Miserables.
Cinematography: Skyfall. Runner-up: Anna Karenina.
Costume: Anna Karenina.
Makeup: Les Miserables.
Score: Life of Pi.
Song: Skyfall.
Film Editing: Argo. Runner-up: Zero Dark Thirty.
Sound Editing: Life of Pi.
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables.
Visual F/X: Life of Pi.

Animated Feature: Brave. Runner-up: Frankenweenie.
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man.
Foreign-Language Film: Amour.
Short- Animated: Paperman.
Short- Documentary: Mondays at Racine.
Short- Live Action: Death of a Shadow.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby anonymous1980 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:35 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Not to open a debate here, but Brave is terrific, but nothing can be worse than the rancid Happy Feet.


Shrek is worse.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest!

Postby Sabin » Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:54 pm

Haven't seen Happy Feet, which is not continuing or starting any debate. :)
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