PGA Winners

For the films of 2012
The Original BJ
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:52 pm

Ben Affleck's omission in Oscar's Director category remains this season's most curious wrinkle. And I wonder if it might divide prognosticators into those focused on reading solely this year's tea leaves, and those with a more historic view of the Oscars.

Because if you look at the latter, it's REALLY hard to bet solidly on Argo as your Best Picture frontrunner. But the Ben Affleck pity party narrative really seems to have set in, a narrative which I'm really over, by the way, given that Affleck already has an Oscar, was nominated again this year, and is a gazillionaire with a career most directors would kill for. Given the way people are responding to his Oscar omission, you'd think he just had both his legs chopped off.

I'm curious to know from those Oscar-watching at the time..did Steven Spielberg and Ron Howard receive the same kind of attention after their shocking director omissions? Because to me, the whole idea that voters will choose Argo as Best Picture as a way to AMEND FOR Affleck's snub doesn't seem to hold up very well when one looks at historical precedent.

Not only did The Color Purple and Apollo 13 NOT win Best Picture, they actually both did pretty badly on Oscar night. The Color Purple, of course, became Oscar's biggest loser, losing a lot of categories where it would have seemed competitive. And as for Apollo 13, it missed not only its PGA-endorsed Best Picture race, but SAG-winning Ed Harris, Score, and Visual Effects, all categories where it might have reasonably triumphed.

Which is to say, past stunner Director omissions haven't led much to the sympathy Best Picture votes a lot of people assume Argo will get; in fact, they've generally signaled weakness for the films.

On a similar note, I remember something someone (Dennis Bee?) said about predicting against The Color Purple in Best Picture -- that when he went through and noticed the number of categories he DIDN'T think it would win, it didn't seem to suggest a strong Best Picture winner. And that's my other feeling about Argo -- I still don't think it ends up with that many trophies in the end. Alan Arkin's role feels too lightweight, the score doesn't seem sweeping enough, and the movie just doesn't seem loud enough to snag either sound trophy. So we're basically talking about Film Editing (a probable winner), and if the movie's REALLY strong, MAYBE it wins Adapted Screenplay, though with Lincoln and Silver Linings on the ballot, that's fierce competition, and I can't say I give Argo the leg up at this point. Even when you're generous, that's not a lot of categories to support a Best Picture win.

But...at the same time, I also can't imagine people otherwise planning to vote for Argo NOT voting for the film just because the directors branch didn't cite Affleck. If it has strong enough support, eighty years (okay, okay, seventy-nine) of precedent won't torpedo a movie that's otherwise popular enough. But at the moment, I still think this race is really fluid.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:08 am

If Affleck wins DGA, I think it's possible the film could receive some backlash, but I was feeling a shift in momentum as 2012 was winding down, so Argo seems like a strong contender to roll through the rest of the season. I think Harvey could use the opportunity to push the Russell into the winner's circle. Two years running with a comedy director taking the spot? Of course, the Academy could reject Weinstein's moves this year as they see the Weaver nomination as something of a bizarre decision...at least I hope they would considering she has absolutely nothing of value to do in SLP. I don't see Ang Lee winning a second Best Director prize without a corresponding Best Picture. They did it to him once and I don't think they fancy that kind of thing. If they don't like Picture/Director splits, why would they do it again. And since I don't really see Life of Pi as a Best Picture winner, I think Lee is probably out.

I really think it's going to be Spielberg. He managed to make a rather boring, parliamentary procedure exciting. Granted, much of that work is thanks to the screenplay, but it's Spielberg doing what he does best. Of course, this would be the second time in a row he could win Best Director and not Best Picture, which some voters might not like. But, if there's any modern director I can see them giving a rare third Oscar to, it's Spielberg and this is just the kind of historical film the Academy has always loved. I really don't think Haneke has a chance. As much as his film showed strength this year, he's not at a "must be recognized" level. Sure, voters could throw their support to Haneke as a way to snub their noses at the system, but I think that's more wishful thinking than anything. And if Benh Zeitlin wins this thing, the Academy might want to increase security because angry villagers with torches will make their way there to burn down the Frankenstein monster they've created.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

dws1982
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby dws1982 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:05 am

OscarGuy wrote:However, if as I expect it wins the SAG ensemble award tomorrow night and then the DGA next week, we most likely will have the first film in 23 years to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.

Of course Apollo 13 won those three awards, and we all know how that one turned out.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rudeboy » Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:39 am

If Affleck does win the DGA - which I think is a very real possibility - then who takes the corresponding Oscar? Clearly this has the potential to be up in the air right up until the big night. A consolation for Spielberg? Ang Lee? Dare one suggest Haneke? David O. Russell may actually have the second most popular film of the bunch, so could preferential voting favour him with a batch of votes from those unable to vote Argo in both top categories? Of course the DGA could clear things up, but this could be one hell of a thrilling category this year.

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PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:11 am

Best Picture went to Argo, Best Animated Feature went to Wreck-It Ralph and Best Documentary to Searching for Sugar Man.

Were Affleck nominated for Best Director, we'd know be talking about the steamrolling to the Oscars. However, without that nomination, the film does have its work cut out for it. However, if as I expect it wins the SAG ensemble award tomorrow night and then the DGA next week, we most likely will have the first film in 23 years to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin


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