PGA Winners

For the films of 2012
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rolotomasi99
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:06 am

Well, at least he can admit he was wrong...which is more than I can say about some folks.

Martin Sheen, No Longer a ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ Opponent
By MICHAEL CIEPLY

LOS ANGELES —On consideration, and widespread reports to the contrary notwithstanding, Martin Sheen said he did not believe that Oscar voters or anyone else should shun “Zero Dark Thirty.”

But speaking by telephone Wednesday, Mr. Sheen said that through his own mistake, the actors David Clennon and Ed Asner had included Mr. Sheen in their opposition to what they saw as the film’s tolerance of torture. “It’s my own fault,” said Mr. Sheen, who explained that he had agreed to a statement about the film without fully understanding that it would condemn the movie, rather than simply condemning torture.

Kathryn Bigelow, who directed “Zero Dark Thirty,” and Mark Boal, who wrote it, became aware of Mr. Sheen’s admiration for the movie when he spoke with them recently by telephone, after receiving a handwritten letter from him at the Golden Globes ceremony on Jan. 13, Mr. Boal said on Tuesday.

Speaking separately, Mr. Sheen said he shared Ms. Bigelow’s expressed opposition to the use of torture, and said that the film had “done great, great service to the issue” by bringing it to the fore. Mr. Sheen said he had watched the movie weeks ago and “was very moved and troubled by it.” The misunderstanding with Mr. Clennon, he added, occurred only because Mr. Sheen had failed to speak with him personally about the “Zero Dark Thirty” controversy, relying instead on communication through an assistant.

“He’s one of my heroes,” Mr. Sheen said of Mr. Clennon, whom he has often joined in political actions.

By email, David Clennon responded: None of us, who advocate the abolition of torture, have tried to discourage others from seeing the film. Ed Asner and I have expressed our opposition to the film’s encouragement of the tolerance of torture.”

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2 ... -opponent/
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:58 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I know precedent is against Argo and I expect it to go down in defeat as I said before; however, there's no denying that precedents favor and go against any number of films this year and it's how you pick and choose those precedents that defines what a film's chances look like. I'm almost leaning towards Silver Linings Playbook as an unexpected Best Picture winner. Harvey's done it before, so why couldn't he do it again. The only thing that I think supports Argo's win is that it's a political film that shows Hollywood's relevance in the world of espionage. The Artist was the first film in I can't think of how long about the filmmaking industry to win Best Picture. Before then, they were reticent to recognize it, but I wonder if they are now openly embracing it. Then again, SLP could slip through.


I think this is actually an interesting point. When CRASH won, some speculated the Los Angeles setting helped it. I never agreed with this thinking, and many pointed out the only other L.A.-based Best Picture winner at the time was ANNIE HALL. Now, however, we have the possibility of another Hollywood set film which celebrates the film industry. THE ARTIST was about celebrity, the cultural importance of film, and artists changing with the times/technology. Now we have a film again celebrating the international power of film and how it literally can save lives.

The more I read your posts OscarGuy, the more I am thinking ARGO could actually win this thing. However, it has to win Adapted Screenplay. Even tech heavy films like GLADIATOR, CHICAGO, and BRAVEHEART won one of the three dramatic categories (acting, writing, and directing). Since directing is impossible for ARGO and acting is unlikely, it needs the Adapted Screenplay win. Then it will probably win Editing and Sound (if SLUMDOG MILLIONARE can beat THE DARK KNIGHT, ARGO can win here too). Score and Sound Editing are also possible, but it does not have to win those categories.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:06 am

While Oscar voters have a long history of voting for actors and directors based on popularity as much as anything, I don't think that holds true in the technical categories. Michael Danna's score for Life of Pi is so lovely I don't see voters denying him in order to give an Oscar to the more prolific Alexandre Desplat, or worse, to give Argo more than its now expected sole win for Best Picture.

The popularity issue does infringe on the much branch, but only in the Best Song category where the emphasis is often more on the singer than the song, which is why the highly popular Adele will win for Skyfall even if it isn't that great a song. This has been the case for the last 75 years beginning in 1937 when Harry Owens' "Sweet Leilani" sung by Bing Crosby in Waikiki Wedding won over George and Ira Gershwin's "They Can't Take That Away from Me" sung by Fred Astaire in Shall We Dance. They could and they did take that away form the Gershwins.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:06 am

I think the only reason The Full Monty won Musical/Comedy Score is that there were enough people in the Academy who loved the film enough to not let it go empty handed. It was simply a consolation prize for the little film that could that had no shot at winning all the other categories it was nominated for.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:24 am

There are precedents against EVERY film winning Best Picture this year. That's the point. Until its SAG win (I discussed that in the SAG thread), Argo wasn't the film Sasha Stone wanted to win. She's been championing Lincoln for a long time. Hell, before the Argo steamroller, I know a lot of people HERE who were suggesting that Lincoln wasn't a very enthusiastic choice and we should never ignore those feelings.

And I'm not saying Awards Daily made up the statistics, but we all know that when one favors a specific outcome, we look to every precedent we can that will put down and push away that which threatens it. So, while I'm not saying Awards Daily made up statistics, it didn't. I'm suggesting that they were looking for statistics in a biased manner.

As to what it can win? I think Score is a possibility. The snippet they played at the Globes sounded like the type of score they've recognized in the past. And why is Mychael Danna a lock? He's never been nominated before, so there isn't exactly a clamoring to recognize his work. After years of no recognition, Danny Elfman broke through the musical-staff ceiling with two nominations in 1997 for Good Will Hunting and Men in Black. They could have easily recognized his typical soundscape for Men in Black but they went unexpectedly with The Full Monty, a film whose score was hardly its most impressive or even noticeable part. Yes, Danna's score of Life of Pi is one of its more memorable aspects, but as Elfman can tell you, finally earning a nomination from the Academy for a distinctive and recognizable score does not guarantee an Oscar win. I think Argo could take Original Score and I think Editing seems possible (I'd much rather a film with low-key, tension-based editing win than something that's frenetic and "action-packed").

I know precedent is against Argo and I expect it to go down in defeat as I said before; however, there's no denying that precedents favor and go against any number of films this year and it's how you pick and choose those precedents that defines what a film's chances look like. I'm almost leaning towards Silver Linings Playbook as an unexpected Best Picture winner. Harvey's done it before, so why couldn't he do it again. The only thing that I think supports Argo's win is that it's a political film that shows Hollywood's relevance in the world of espionage. The Artist was the first film in I can't think of how long about the filmmaking industry to win Best Picture. Before then, they were reticent to recognize it, but I wonder if they are now openly embracing it. Then again, SLP could slip through.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:14 am

Here's something to think about: If Argo is indeed the front-runner for Best Picture, what other Oscars could it win? Film Editing would be the easiest one to get. I guess Chris Terrio could upset Tony Kushner in Adapted Screenplay but I highly doubt it. Supporting Actor? Not likely. Original Score? I guess if they wanna collectively honor Alexandre Desplat's multiple efforts this year, they could but it's gonna be tough to beat Mychael Danna's already Globe-winning Indian-infused score for Life of Pi. Argo doesn't seem the type to win any of the Sound categories where it has to face a giant tech achievement (Life of Pi), a well-received blockbuster (Skyfall), another drama film with louder sound (Zero Dark Thirty) and a musical (Les Miserables).

With these odds stacked against it, Argo could be the Best Picture winner with the lowest number of wins since Grand Hotel. It could only just win 2.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:36 am

I think Sasha and Jeff Wells have thrown in the towell on their heretofore unswerving support of Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, respectively. They're both predicting Argo after the SAG win.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:30 am

OscarGuy wrote:And citing Awards Daily as an unbiased source of information with regard to Lincoln is a dangerous game.


Are you saying they made up those statistics?

I know all precedents can be broken, but I think information on how the Academy behaves is still relevant. I know the film with the most nominations does not always win, but I do think it is significant that ARGO is the fourth most nominated film. Clearly the Academy liked the film, but it did not receive any surprising nominations. When THE HURT LOCKER earned an unexpected score nomination, it was clear the Academy overall was really enthusiastic about the film. If ARGO had been nominated in Costume and Set, then I would have said it clearly has very broad support. However, it received nominations everywhere we expected and was glaringly snubbed in the most important other category to determine a Best Picture winner.

I actually think ARGO and LINCOLN are equally worthy of Best Picture. I want ZERO DARK THIRTY to win, but since its chances are even less than ARGO I am also rooting for either LIFE OF PI or AMOUR. Mostly I just want the Oscars to break out of their comfort zone. LINCOLN and ARGO are great films, but they are definitely the type of safe filmmaking the Academy loves. I might not think it actually is the best film of the year, but at least BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD would be a Best Picture winner unlike any we have ever seen before.

Whatever they end up choosing, it is definitely going to be the most suspenseful Oscar night I can remember.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:45 pm

Crash is the only film in the last 15 years (because I haven't gone back further than that) to win Best Picture with only ONE other precursor to its name. That precursor was Chicago. Lincoln's only win is from Dallas-Fort Worth. For every precedent people cite against Argo, there's a precedent against Lincoln. There are plenty of precedents out there that will dictate any one of these films winning and/or losing. And if it's really as wide-open a race as everyone is claiming, then looking at precedents is mostly pointless. I also see a lot of Argo dissenters trying their hardest to find some way to declare Argo as an impossibility to win. I'm pro-Argo, I'll state that up front, but I also like Lincoln.

And citing Awards Daily as an unbiased source of information with regard to Lincoln is a dangerous game. Sasha Stone has been an ardent supporter of Lincoln for awhile now. She's written a few articles just on Lincoln's chances or its importance in the race. If they were championing something else to win, I'd be more apt to listen to their attempts to tear down the statistical frontrunner, but I see more precedents in favor of Argo or Zero Dark Thirty or Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook than I see precedents that support a Lincoln victory.

Just saying, take your news with a grain of salt. I do my best at being unbiased and I recognize Argo's win is an uphill battle. I also realize that in the last two decades, only two films that topped my list of the year's best were also Oscar Best Picture winners, so I realize that the likelihood of Argo winning Best Picture is slim based on the Best Director precedent. While I will continue to be cautiously optimistic, I'm mostly trying to be measured since the last time I thought my favorite film of the year was supposed to win, Crash happened.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:27 pm

Hmmm, I wish I was as confident as the rest of you........
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:40 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Not only did The Color Purple and Apollo 13 NOT win Best Picture, they actually both did pretty badly on Oscar night. The Color Purple, of course, became Oscar's biggest loser, losing a lot of categories where it would have seemed competitive. And as for Apollo 13, it missed not only its PGA-endorsed Best Picture race, but SAG-winning Ed Harris, Score, and Visual Effects, all categories where it might have reasonably triumphed.


This is actually a really good point. While THE COLOR PURPLE and APOLLO 13 were more popular at the box-office than the respective Best Picture winners, they were not loved more by the Academy. THE COLOR PURPLE tied OUT OF AFRICA in nominations, and then infamously won nothing. APOLLO 13 had one less nomination than BRAVEHEART, and then only won two categories.

Over at AwardsDaily, they made the point that not only is ARGO at a disadvantage due to its missed Director nomination, it is also the fourth most nominated film of the Best Picture lineup. Only one film has won Best Picture while being the fourth most nominated film and that is CHARIOTS OF FIRE. Even when GRAND HOTEL infamously won Best Picture with no other nominations, the most nominations any of the other Best Picture nominees had was four and several other films in the Best Picture lineup had no other nominations.

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/01 ... -imagined/

Also, only four films have had 12 nominations and not won Best Picture.

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/01 ... minations/

LINCOLN may not have passionate support, but it might have enough mild support from the largest contingent in the Academy.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:00 pm

I don't think anyone feels sorry for Affleck in the least. The way I read it is that those who saw Argo as one of the front-runners for Best Picture felt that the Affleck "snub" lessened the film's chances for the big win that they threw their support to it because of its sudden underdog status. Now that it's no longer an underdog, but the new favorite to win, those same supporters coudl turn to something ele. It's a wide open race.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:23 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Because if you look at the latter, it's REALLY hard to bet solidly on Argo as your Best Picture frontrunner. But the Ben Affleck pity party narrative really seems to have set in, a narrative which I'm really over, by the way, given that Affleck already has an Oscar, was nominated again this year, and is a gazillionaire with a career most directors would kill for. Given the way people are responding to his Oscar omission, you'd think he just had both his legs chopped off.


Agreed 100%. Reading someone genuinely suggesting that write-in ballots should be allowed for best director startled me for just how the race been defined by the absence of Affleck. Especially since the line-up is actually quite strong - stronger than it's been in ages. Lee does terrific showmanship in Life of Pi. Spielberg's subtle stewardship of Lincoln allows Kushner's screenplay full focus and gives it clairty. Zeitlin's film feels like one-of-a-kind personal statement and again, strong stewardship of a lot of different elements. Haneke's masterful clinical precision. Haven't seen the Russell yet, but the brilliance of this line-up more than dwarfs Affleck's solid competence.

That said, dws, I think this is sorta akin to the multi-film trainwreck of 2002 or 2000 as much as 1995.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:55 pm

I think the distinction here was that Apollo 13 had already started collapsing as a potential Oscar winner by the time the Oscars happened. Sure, it took PGA and SAG, but it lost out on the Golden Globe. I don't think anyone's voting for Argo out of pity. I may be the only one that was feeling it, but as the precursor season was winding down, it seemed like Argo started surging. Lincoln and ZDT were doing very well towards the beginning, then slowly started fading with Argo starting to build support. I think had Ben Affleck gotten a Best Director nomination, the historical narrative would point towards an Argo Best Picture win. The only reason people aren't jumping on it as a frontrunner is that curious Best Director omission.

I think the "pity" people seem to be seeing out there is more that they had intended to vote for Affleck and Argo this year and without Affleck, they are left without someone to strongly support in Best Director (with Bigelow also missing). So, I think they are more concerned over the fact that they can't vote for him along with Best Picture rather than voting for Argo because he wasn't nominated for director.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby dws1982 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:51 pm

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote, BJ.

I really am shocked at the absurd extent to which everyone (media, critics, bloggers) have overrated Argo in the wake of Affleck's Director snub. Affleck's first two films showed a great deal of promise, but there was nothing at all awards-worthy in Argo. My main problem with Argo (aside from a way over-indulged Alan Arkin and a gallingly sentimental ending) is this: There's no point-of-view. A movie like THIS, about these historical events just settles for being a procedural retelling (with standard Hollywood embellishments). There's no attempt to place the events in anything resembling a larger context, and there are so many opportunities to do so in the material. You could make it about late 20th-century cultural changes--how major, seismic changes happened everywhere, but the consequences were quite different in countries like Iran than in Western countries. You could make it about the beginning of the uncomfortable divide between the Muslim world and the non-Muslim word. You could use the story to do an Olivier Assayas-type take on late 20th-century globalization, and the way governments interact with each other in a globalized world. Argo pays lip service to some of these themes here and there, but it never really engages with them on any meaningful level. Instead, it's content to let Hollywood pat itself on the back for saving the day. No wonder it's the Best Picture frontrunner.

As for Argo and the Oscars, I still don't know what to think. You look down the line (as Dennis Bee mentioned doing with The Color Purple), and it's hard to see an award that it's likely to win: I don't even want to entertain the possibility of Arkin. It would be the likely Adapted Screenplay winner in another year, but so would Silver Linings Playbook, and so would Lincoln, and those have both won more writing awards than Argo. Editing is the most likely spot for it to win, but I could see Zero Dark Thirty or even Lincoln pulling that one off too. Score is possible, but Life of Pi is every bit as likely, Lincoln is a possibility, and that's a category where the voters tend to go off script pretty frequently. The sound categories have more flashy "loud" nominees--I don't think I would rank it above fourth most likely to win in either category.

Let me end with a few more thoughts from Dennis Bee: Never bet the split. Splits are always unexpected. Splits generally occur under two circumstances: Most often, it's when the frontrunner is weaker than anticipated, and gets upset either in Best Picture (Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan) or Director (Roman Polanski over Marshall). Other cases are when there's a sort of multi-film train-wreck that leads to an every-which-way distribution of the awards (Gladiator for Picture, Soderbergh for Director, techs split between those two and Crouching Tiger). However, as Dennis told us, unsettled years oftentimes have a way of looking remarkably settled in the end: For example, The Departed/Scorsese, Million Dollar Baby/Eastwood, Braveheart/Gibson, Out of Africa/Pollack.

That's where I am today, which is to say, in a more-or-less state of not having a clue what's going to happen. And that's nice after several predictable races.


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