SAG Awards

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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Greg » Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:27 pm

Also, Life Of Pi only got 6 tech nominations, as it did not make it in either Costume Design or Makeup.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:31 pm

And I wish Hollywood Reporter would stop spouting the fallacious statement that Life of Pi was nominated in all 7 tech categories. There are EIGHT tech categories. They conveniently ignore Best Makeup it seems.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:37 pm

Sabin wrote:This is going to be a year where the awards are spread out. I'm starting to think that the movie with the most wins will be Life of Pi.


I think Life of Pi has a good shot at being this year's Hugo, seen as such an overall technical achievement that it manages a healthy down-ballot total of wins.

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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:34 pm

There are several categories that I'm unsure about but Best Film Editing is not one of them. While Silver Linings Playbook should be a lock in that category, it's absolutely going to Argo. There's a small chance of a Zero Dark Thirty upset but one thing is clear: William Goldenberg is taking home an Oscar for something.

This is going to be a year where the awards are spread out. I'm starting to think that the movie with the most wins will be Life of Pi.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:30 pm

Sabin wrote:I'm unsure aout Argo winning Best Picture, but I do think voters love it more than just respect it. The question is how many awards CAN it win? Best Picture, Best Film Editing, and what else? I think Best Adapted Screenplay. That's three. Considering that these days the average Best Picture winner hovers around four, that's not unheard of.


CRASH won Oscars for its editing and its screenplay, and that was enough to win Best Picture. I can believe many precedents will be broken on Oscar night, but there is no way ARGO will win Best Picture without winning anything else. I think the Academy would be humiliated by such an outcome. It would negatively reflect on the Oscars as a whole and they would never stop taking shit for it.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby rudeboy » Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:58 am

Lincoln isn't out here until the Thursday before the Oscars, so I may or may not get to see it prior to Oscar night (morning, for me - fortunately Monday is the start of my weekend!) but, sight unseen, I can very easily see it taking best actor and nothing more.

If Argo takes best picture - and yes, that's still a big 'if' - I suspect adapted screenplay (and editing) will come with it. Tony Kushner may have the most widely-acclaimed screenplay for a major film this year, that's not going to affect voting patterns. Even if Lincoln wins the WGA award - which it very well might - I suspect screenplay and best picture are going hand-in-hand this year. Non-writers will check off the Argo script if that's their preferred film. So many people are suggesting Argo could win best picture and nothing else but there's absolutely no logical reason why that has to happen.

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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 29, 2013 2:55 am

I think so. I see Lincoln winning Best Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay for sure. Anything else is possible, but far from certain.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:59 pm

Sure, but is that enough to make them care?
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:59 pm

I think it's well known amongst Oscar voters that Tony Kushner has been associated with Lincoln for as long as Spielberg has and that he had to re-write his original script which took him five years, scrapping everything but the last part and enhancing that to fit Spielberg's change of focus. I would be shocked if Lincoln failed to take the screenplay award.

Argo is positioned to win Best Picture and Best Picture only.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:39 pm

Argo is not a lock and neither is Tony Kushner.

I was talking to a friend of mine last night about how I don't have a favorite script this year. Last year, no doubt in my mind it was A Separation. No doubt. Every year, there is usually a piece of writing that I just respond to more than any other. This year, I don't really have one. I thought that David O. Russell's work on Silver Linings Playbook and Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola's work on Moonrise Kingdom would do better than they did, but I'm really surprised at how many awards Tony Kushner won for his work on Lincoln. Was it really a better piece of screenwriting than Munich? Were there any fewer pacing problems? When Kushner started winning every award in sight, that more than anything sealed Lincoln as the year's winner in my mind. Which is to say: if Lincoln is viewed as more than a one man show or an actor's showcase, then it's in. Now, I'm thinking that it's going back to being seen as a one man show or an actor's showcase.

I'm unsure aout Argo winning Best Picture, but I do think voters love it more than just respect it. The question is how many awards CAN it win? Best Picture, Best Film Editing, and what else? I think Best Adapted Screenplay. That's three. Considering that these days the average Best Picture winner hovers around four, that's not unheard of.

What I'm wondering is who is going to take Best Director, and if there can be an alternative to Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:23 pm

I don't think Argo's a lock, but you have to admit that Lincoln isn't exactly encouraging passion from its fanbase.

We haven't seen what DGA will do. As for WGA. WGA will go for Lincoln and the only way the WGA will impact the Oscar race is if something other than Lincoln wins. If it wins, nothing in the race changes, IMO.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:44 pm

I think it's safe to say at this point that wrt comparisons between Argo and Apollo 13 that people seem to be across the board more passionate about Ben's film than Ron's, and that's really all it needs.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:57 pm

Well, Argo continues to rack up prizes. (This morning on the Today show, one of the hosts led coverage of the SAG segment with the phrase, "Last night's top honor went to Ben Affleck for his CIA thriller Argo" and I thought, bemused, that's a good way to describe what happened.) I continue to be puzzled by the extent of Argo's strength, though I'm relieved that everyone here seems to have a pretty sane attitude toward its candidacy right now. At other sites, and in my real life, the attitude seems to be "game over," as if we've got another Slumdog Millionaire on our hands, and that directing omission is just irrelevant, or, more ludicrously, a feather in the movie's cap. I'm not saying Argo can't win, or even that it won't -- just that there's still reason to be suspicious of its frontrunner status, maybe even until the Best Picture envelope is opened.

I assume the DGA will go pretty easily for Affleck as well. I'm more interested to see where the WGA goes. If Argo prevails there, and becomes the Adapted Screenplay frontrunner, at least it would have more of a leg to stand on in the Best Picture race, and could snag the same trio of prizes Crash did -- Picture, Screenplay, Editing. Plus, Lincoln's script was one of its most praised elements, and Tony Kushner is considered a god among writers, so a loss at that Guild would seem to put the biggest damper on Lincoln's Best Picture candidacy to date. But an Argo loss could bolster even more Apollo 13 comparisons -- WGA was the one Guild it lost.

It's also worth noting that, since the creation of the SAG Awards, several films have snagged 3/4 Guild prizes and lost Best Picture at the Oscars. But no movie has won at all four and failed to win the Best Picture Oscar. (Conversely, several films have won the Best Picture Oscar with only one Guild, but none have won with ZERO Guild prizes.)

I'm hoping the race remains murky over the next month, if only to quiet the "Argo is a LOCK" people a bit. The Academy threw a lot of surprises at us on nomination morning, excluding a number of people cited frequently by the precursors. So the idea that the Academy will just fall in line 100% with those precursors on Oscar night seems a little strange to me this year.

Oh, and one other thing! Many of my friends are SAG members, and the percent who even noticed which actors were listed on the ensemble ballot is virtually zero. So I'm afraid I can't really support the idea that that's why Lincoln lost here. (Actually, y'all would be shocked at how little SAG voters pay attention to this whole affair -- I know plenty of people who voted without seeing numerous nominees.)

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Re: SAG Awards

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:09 pm

flipp525 wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:Flipp, I wasn't referring to the SAG group not voting Lincoln because the others weren't there, merely highlighting the fact that SAG voters almost without incident select the largest cast list on the ballot. I was suggesting that had the Lincoln list been LONGER, it might have won simply because it was the larger list. I say nothing about the quality of the actors in Lincoln because I think they are all excellent (seeing Brit Jared Harris playing the too-American Ulysses S. Grant was amusing). I also think the Argo cast is largely remarkable. I would have accepted either win really, but a Lincoln victory would have surprised me far more than a Les Mis victory would have.

I don't know why you're addressing this to me. I haven't posted anything about it in this thread or elsewhere.


He meant this toward me.

OscarGuy, it seems there are two rules with the Ensemble award. Either the biggest cast wins (CRASH, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, INGLORIOUS BASTERDS) or the cast with several strong performances that were not going to be recognized individually (THE BIRDCAGE, SIDEWAYS, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE). I thought it would either go to LINCOLN for the size of its cast (specifically nominated or not) or SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (but I guess Lawrence winning lead stopped them from recognizing the Ensemble). I guess ARGO is a combination of both those groups since it has a large number of players and none of them were individually awarded.
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Re: SAG Awards

Postby flipp525 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:40 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Flipp, I wasn't referring to the SAG group not voting Lincoln because the others weren't there, merely highlighting the fact that SAG voters almost without incident select the largest cast list on the ballot. I was suggesting that had the Lincoln list been LONGER, it might have won simply because it was the larger list. I say nothing about the quality of the actors in Lincoln because I think they are all excellent (seeing Brit Jared Harris playing the too-American Ulysses S. Grant was amusing). I also think the Argo cast is largely remarkable. I would have accepted either win really, but a Lincoln victory would have surprised me far more than a Les Mis victory would have.

I don't know why you're addressing this to me. I haven't posted anything about it in this thread or elsewhere.
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