Post-Globes Breakdown

For the films of 2012
dws1982
Tenured
Posts: 2998
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 9:28 pm
Location: AL
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby dws1982 » Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:05 am

I never saw The Master. Paul Thomas Anderson and I don't get along, so I put it off as long as possible to the point that I missed it altogether. Bad idea, as it'll probably be the only Oscar-nominee in a major category that I won't get to see before Oscar night.

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 825
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Bog » Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:52 am

dws1982 wrote:I said that an Oscar for his performance would be an embarrassment. And I think it would be--Day-Lewis, Cooper, and Washington are simply operating at a different level...


And here is the problem...I absolutely agree with this statement 110%. However, it is missing a final clause: ...and then there is Joaquin Phoenix!

Cooper was better than ever, Denzel (whom I honestly cannot stand) was a revelation, Daniel Day-Lewis magnificent basically as always...but there were good/great/magnificent performances...then there was the case of Joaquin Phoenix, at least as 2012 goes. Interestingly enough, he seems to be the most "also-ran" in the entire category...which is why we might as well be lighthearted about whatever the outcome. The winner will undoubtedly be incorrect if the goal is excellence above all else. Yes, Jackman would be the most embarrassing, but apparently "purposely" not awarding the best in a category, would nice guy Hugh be that big of a dagger?

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15737
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:05 am

The early days of Oscar were a growing/learning period so the wins of Wingsand Grand Hotel without corresponding Best Director nods are not really germaine to the prevailing theory that a Best Picture winner must have that all-important Best Director nod. Grand Hotel is an anomoly, the only Best Picture winner nominated for that award and only that award and it did it in a field of eight nominees.

From 1933 to 1943 when there were ten nominees the Best Picture award consistently went to a film whose director had been a nominee. The practice has held true through last year with only the 1989 exception. What makes this year ripe for another upset is that not one, not two, but three of the perceived front-runners are without a Best Director nomination. While Lincoln under the other long perceived notion that the film with the most nominations generally wins, has to be the favorite, it is only one of several films that people are passionate about and as the precursors have proved is not a film that has to win.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6504
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:50 pm

I realized I didn't even mention best actor in my post last night; it just didn't seem there was much to say, the way Day-Lewis has steamrollered through this season. It might be worth pausing a moment to note, though: no male actor in the Oscars' history has won best actor three times. Only the one, Katharine Hepburn, has done it among women -- and the night she did it, she was only half a winner (and an unexpected one, at that -- as she was on her unreal fourth). It's bizarre that, in a year where several other actors received award-level acclaim, Day-Lewis -- yes, a generally revered actor, but no moreso than Nicholson, Hoffman, DeNiro and others have been just in the past half-century -- should be not just a possible winner but an almost certain one. If anything can stop him, it will be Academy focus on just how nearly unprecedented and hallowed this three-feat is.

Nice catch, BJ, about almost all the best picture candidates coming home with at least one prize. It recalls the wild Globes of 1991, where Bugsy & Beauty and the Beast won the two best film prizes, JFK took director, Thelma and Louise won script, Prince of Tides (Nolte) and Silence of the Lambs (Foster) won lead dramatic actors, and Fisher King won comedy actor & supporting actress.

Since this has turned into the thread for declarations on the animated category: I haven't seen Wreck-it Ralph, but I thought Brave was ho-hum, Paranorman likable enough, and Frankenweenie my easy favorite -- in fact, maybe my favorite Burton film since Ed Wood. Except for the finale turning a lttle too action-y, I thought it was the most touching, personal film Burton's made in years, with tons of witty details (I loved the gravestone "Goodbye, Kitty"), and visuals that were out of this world stunning.

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12547
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:31 pm

It has happened 3 times. I think Magilla was discussing the fact that the last time it happened was 1989 and the prior time before that was 1931/32, which was 80 years ago. Wings was, of course, the first to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, but none of the films nominated for director were even best picture nominees, so there's that.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 2610
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Okri » Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:52 pm

but one time in eighty years isn't the kind of fluke on which I'd bet the house.


But twice (Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy) causes a remortgage at least, right?

:D

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15737
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:52 pm

ParaNorman I liked.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12547
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:40 pm

ParaNorman, Wreck-It Ralph and Brave were the year's best animated features, IMO.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15737
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:08 pm

dws1982 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:If Amour were an American movie, and the role of the sick old woman had been played by, say, Lillian Gish when she was still alive, or by a glorious American actress who's today in her mid-80s (but who? Lauren Bacall?), I could definitely see this happening.


One hopes that if Gish had played it she woudl have still been alive :roll:

Was that necessary Big?

Well Gish did play a corpse in 1978's A Wedding. They could have used her digital image to play the corpse in Amour. Maybe if Hanke remakes it as an American film, he'll do that. :|
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15737
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:06 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Brave's win was probably the biggest disappointment of last night for me. (I'd steeled myself for the Les Mis wins.) I found both Wreck-It-Ralph and Frankenweenie to be considerably more inventive movies, and would like to hope that this category remains competitive at the Oscars.


For what it's worth, I fell asleep on both Brave and Frankenweenie after the first few moments and woke up to see the finale of both. Maybe some day I'll attempt to watch them again, but probably not any time soon.

Too bad A Cat in Paris, the U.S. version of which was released in mid-2012 wasn't eleible this year instead of last. It was better than all the animated features in this year's mix.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

dws1982
Tenured
Posts: 2998
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 9:28 pm
Location: AL
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby dws1982 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:05 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:If Amour were an American movie, and the role of the sick old woman had been played by, say, Lillian Gish when she was still alive, or by a glorious American actress who's today in her mid-80s (but who? Lauren Bacall?), I could definitely see this happening.


One hopes that if Gish had played it she would have still been alive :roll:

Was that necessary Big?

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15737
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:01 pm

ITALIANO wrote:If Amour were an American movie, and the role of the sick old woman had been played by, say, Lillian Gish when she was still alive, or by a glorious American actress who's today in her mid-80s (but who? Lauren Bacall?), I could definitely see this happening.


One hopes that if Gish had played it she would have still been alive :roll:
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4206
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:54 pm

All right, I'll be the grouch to say it: Hugh Jackman's performance in Les Misérables is an utter embarrassment. Russell Crowe has received a lot of brickbats for his singing -- even from his own cast member last night! -- but I honestly don't think Jackman's is all that much better. He's fine within his limited range, but any time the score requires him to stretch beyond that (which in Les Mis, is FREQUENTLY) he's completely out of his element. My friend and I sat in the audience cringing during his painful rendition of "Bring Him Home," and the fact that a lot of his other numbers he just decides to talk-sing -- no, recording singing live to capture the "rawness" of the material shouldn't mean you just don't sing it -- is laughable. Had any no-name Valjean sung this role like this on the Broadway stage, he would have been laughed all the way to New Jersey. But a very well-liked celebrity "stretching" in a movie wins awards. Go figure. By all accounts, Hugh is a tremendously nice guy, but the "A for effort" response this performance has received is mind-boggling to me. A Best Actor nomination over Trintignant and Hawkes is already too much -- a win would be a travesty, especially over such a strong list of competitors.

Aside from the coronation of Les Mis as anything other than utter ineptitude...I must say I am really enjoying the craziness of this season. Waltz was a total shocker -- I probably would have rated him least likely to win -- and then Tarantino's screenplay victory came from even further in left field -- I DEFINITELY would have rated him least likely to win. Whether or not Django repeats either of these victories at the Oscars remains to be seen, but certainly both categories got a big predictability shake-up. (And with Django and Amour out of contention at the WGA, that race won't nearly provide any forecast for how Zero Dark Thirty will fare against either of those candidates -- exciting!)

As for the Argo/Affleck wins, it's worth pointing out that in tandem, they represented catnip to the HFPA. The foreign locale/policy elements of the narrative likely struck a chord with the same voters who pushed Babel to a win, and the chance to reward a huge celebrity in Best Director was just too much to pass up. (I'm not dismissing the movie, which I like, just pointing out that it's probably not so surprising it appealed to this group in a way that the very American Lincoln did not.) As for whether Argo can still win Best Picture...I'm going to wait and see how it fares with the Guilds, and even THEN I'm going to have a hard time betting on it. The Driving Miss Daisy scenario proves exceptions to rules do happen...but one time in eighty years isn't the kind of fluke on which I'd bet the house.

It's worth noting, as well, just how much of a spread-the-wealth attitude there was here. With the exception of the Globe-snubbed Beasts, every single one of Oscar's Best Picture nominees took home a trophy last night. And, as Sabin suggested, it still sort of seems like at least SIX of those movies are at least still lingering in this very murky conversation for Best Picture. I doubt things will still seem SO up-in-the-air by Oscar night, but it's an exciting place for us to be in right now.

Mister Tee, thanks for reminding me that the Globes defaulted to Pixar with Cars as well, since Brave's win was probably the biggest disappointment of last night for me. (I'd steeled myself for the Les Mis wins.) I found both Wreck-It-Ralph and Frankenweenie to be considerably more inventive movies, and would like to hope that this category remains competitive at the Oscars.

Oh...and watching Julianne Moore trump Nicole Kidman a decade after their first Globe matchup produced the wrong outcome provided a great moment for me.

ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 3986
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN
Contact:

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:26 pm

It's true that the Golden Globes today have a lesser impact on the Oscar race than they probably used to - the Guilds will soon make things unfortunately clearer. It's also maybe true that, while Lincoln is objectively one of the great men in the history of the world, he might mean more to Americans than to these foreign correspondents. Still - and I wish I had seen Lincoln already - it's obvious that this movie isn't the unbeatable winner we thought it could be. I don't think this means that it won't win Best Picture - but there could be surprises in other categories. Which categories, I don't know - some minor ones, probably, but also, who knows, Best Director or Best Supporting Actor (I mean, if the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice carefully avoid Tommy Lee Jones - the Globes even going for the second time with an Austrian actor who's very good but not exactly their kind of "star" - it must mean something). I still think Lincoln will be THE Oscar movie of 2012, but there could be upsets along the way.

Best Actor won't be, I guess, one of them. The only factor which could in theory prevent Daniel Day Lewis from getting it is the third-Oscar obstacle - and it matters, for actors, of course it does. Voters may not care or even know if a costume designer already has two or even seven Oscars, but it's different for the actors (and for the directors). Still, the double prestige of Day-Lewis AND the character he plays will probably solve this problem. They could even realize that sooner or later he would get a third Oscar anyway, so why not now? Daniel Day-Lewis and Sean Penn are this kind of actors.

Best Supporting Actress was always going to go to Anne Hathaway and of course it will.

Best Actress is more interesting. It's true that this is the typical case when two young actresses could lose to a more respected, and less young, rival, if only because voters perceive that they will have several chances to honor them in the future. This led to Maggie Smith's first Oscar and I'd say even to Katharine Hepburn's fourth (and probably others). If Amour were an American movie, and the role of the sick old woman had been played by, say, Lillian Gish when she was still alive, or by a glorious American actress who's today in her mid-80s (but who? Lauren Bacall?), I could definitely see this happening. But Emmanuelle Riva is, by Oscar standards, a relative unknown. And as for Naomi Watts, The Impossible got just one nomination - hers - so, despite the much-talked-about support from some high-profile colleagues I really don't think she will pull off a surprise victory. And Silver Linings Playbook (which I haven't seen yet) must win something. Best Actress seems to be its more attainable target.

FilmFan720
Tenured
Posts: 3453
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Postby FilmFan720 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:27 pm

Regarding Best Supporting Actor, there is a lot of feeling that Tommy Lee Jones is our front-runner, but could we be unfairly dismissing Philip Seymour Hoffman? He has 4 nominations and one win in less than a decade, he is generally regarded as one of the best actors in Hollywood (who would be deserving of being a multiple Oscar winner), even detractors of The Master praise his work (which isn't necessarily true of DeNiro or Arkin) and he seems to have the most substantive role of all the nominees (I haven't seen The Master yet, so I can't say whether that's true or not). Winning the Critic's Choice Award certainly doesn't hurt him, bringing him not only attention but coming from a group that doesn't always go for the more challenging films. I know The Master doesn't have the strongest support base from the Academy, but Hoffman certainly does.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.


Return to “85th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest