Winner predictions

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MovieWes
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby MovieWes » Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:36 pm

My final winner predictions:

Best Picture: Argo (r.u. Life of Pi)
Best Director: Ang Lee - Life of Pi (r.u. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln (r.u. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master)
Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour (r.u. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook (r.u. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained)
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables (r.u. Sally Field - Lincoln)
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino (r.u. Amour - Michael Haneke)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo - Chris Terrio (r.u. Lincoln - Tony Kushner)
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph (r.u. Frankenweenie)
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (r.u. Nothing)
Best Film Editing: Argo (r.u. Life of Pi)
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi (r.u. Skyfall)
Best Art Direction: Anna Karenina (r.u. Life of Pi)
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (r.u. Les Miserables)
Best Makeup: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (r.u. Les Miserables)
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables (r.u. Skyfall)
Best Sound Editing: Skyfall (r.u. Life of Pi)
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi (r.u. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Best Original Score: Life of Pi - Mychael Danna (r.u. Skyfall - Thomas Newman)
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" (r.u. Nothing)
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man (r.u. No idea)
Best Documentary Short Subject: Inocente (r.u. No idea)
Best Animated Feature: Paperman (r.u. No idea)
Best Live-Action Short: Bukashi Boys (r.u. No idea)
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:26 pm

I would say that at this point Argo is the most likely winner, but far from a sure bet.

It has nothing to do with voters liking to line up Best Picture/Director and not giving top honors to a film without a Best Director nominee. We passed that hurdle when Oscar ignored three of the DGA's nominees and Argo started winning everything in sight. The question is has Argo now won so many precursors that it is no longer an underdog but the front-runner that has to be taken down a peg or two.

Though I certainly hope not, Harvey' Weinstein's big push for Silver Linings Playbook could yield the gregarious producer his third Best Picture win in three years. Both Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln are bloodied but unbowed. We haven't heard a lot lately from Les Misérables supporters within the industry. Could be they're keeping mum but voting for it anyway. And what about Life of Pi which is still going strong at the box office? It could really be any one of the six.

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:00 pm

So I keep going back and forth on the subject of Best Picture. I know that the common sense says that Argo is unbeatable, but I just have a hard time completely coming to terms with that. It is probably the Mister Tee rule, that you should never bet on the abberation, so I just have a hard time believing that something can win Best Picture without the Best Director nomination, no matter how forseen it is told (and the fact that the one time it has happened in recent memory was a suprise victory, not the frontrunner (and remember that the times that frontrunners came without a Best Director nomination, it didn't hold up...Color Purple and Apollo 13).

When predicting the Oscars, we are missing a lot of the data that comes with predicting elections and other similar veins. We will never know how close Crash and Brokeback Mountain really were, but we do know how close Kerry and Bush really were down to the vote. That said, we have three big, broad categories that we can look at that help us figure out what exactly is happening in the race to Oscar night.

The first is the precursors, and here Argo is heads and shoulders beyond the competition. It has taken the top prize at every televised awards show this season, and then has taken victories at all of the smaller guild awards that can mean a lot to the Hollywood community. In this vein, it seems unbeatable (although I hasten to mention that Apollo 13 took almost every one of these awards also, but ran into its own historical epic). If you are going on pure precursors, and with the pretty common assumption that the film that wins the most precursors wins the Oscar, then Argo is the film to beat here. It is how we knew that The King's Speech was taking over front-runner status from The Social Network, it is how films like Slumgod Millionaire and The Artist cemented their juggernaut status to Oscar wins and it is the most common argument for why Argo must be the winner this year (again, though, it is not a guarantee to win...just ask Brokeback Mountain)

The second category to look at, and the one with the least amount of pure data to interpret, is the narrative that is being told. Academy voters love a good story, and they also love to complete the narrative being created by the media and the Hollywood community. Right now, Argo also seems to have a lock on the narrative story. It has painted itself as the underdog from the moment Ben Affleck lost out on a nomination and was immediatly labeled a "snub", its run through the precursors has always highlighted its amazing run in each new story and the likeable status of Affleck and his cast at every awards show has made it so likeable. The film has been painted as the film of the moment (a label that most of us thought was going to be given to Zero Dark Thirty) and has become the right film at the right time. The power of the narrative can drive a lot of films and preformers to Oscar glory...much of Meryl Streep's win last year was propelled by her being "due" a third Oscar, and going back to Elizabeth Taylor the story the voters are being told can be more powerful than anything. Argo is the film that people are being told will and should win Best Picture, the underdog, topical, feelgood story of American patriotism that we are supposed to feel is the winner (although again, remember, Brokeback Mountain can tell you that being the anointed one does not always mean you get the big prize...especially if the liberal, white guilt can kick in to honor a film dealing with racism).

The third category, though, is the easy one to overlook. However, it may be the most important category of them all: what do the Oscar nominations themselves tell us. Just 7 years ago, this is why so many of us missed the boat on the Brokeback Mountain upset...we saw all the precursors and all the narrative and said it has to win, but ignored the fact that it did not have the all-important Best Editing nomination. In the end, the preferences of the Academy are the only thing that matter to the Oscars, and when a film is missing an important piece of the puzzle, it is a large gap for the film to overcome. Brokeback Mountain couldn't overcome a lack of Editing nomination, just as Apollo 13, Color Purple and Sense and Sensibility were crippled by their lack of a Directing nomination. In all those cases, it was the film that had the right combination of nominations, and the most across the board support, that was elevated to Best Picture status.

Argo is missing the biggest piece of the Best Picture puzzle, but it also may not have the across the board support that we think they do: the directors branch found other films it preferred, but remember that Argo also missed out on Cinematography and Costume nods, both of which could have been sucked into the wake of a frontrunner, and the acting branch only gave the film one nomination (when at one point two Supporting Actor nods seemed possible). The film is only the fourth-most nominated film of the year and we don't see it winning more than a couple of awards other than Best Picture. If it wasn't for all of the precursors and narratives, it would be a blip on the Oscar radar, the kind of Best Picture nominee that picks up a handful of nominations but leaves the room Oscar night emtpy-handed.

So, what does all this mean? I don't know. Argo certainly has two of the three branches of Oscar prognosticating dominated, but how comfortable are people with ignoring the Oscar nominations? In the end, I have a hunch that Argo will pull this off, but I don't feel as comfortable with it as a lot of you seem to feel, and I don't think it is going to win by the landslide most are predicting (although we will never know that for sure!)
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Reza » Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:57 pm

My final winner predictions

Best Picture – Argo
Best Director – Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress – Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor – Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay – Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay – Lincoln
Best Original Score – Life of Pi
Best Original Song – “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Best Cinematography – Life of Pi
Best Film Editing – Argo
Best Art Direction – Les Miserables
Best Costume Design – Anna Karenina
Best Makeup – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Sound Mixing – Les Misérables
Best Sound Effects – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects – Life of Pi
Best Foreign-Language Film – Amour
Best Animated Film – Wreck-it Ralph
Best Documentary – Searching for Sugar Man
Best Animated Short - Paperman
Best Documentary, Short Subject - Mondays at Racine
Best Short Film, Live Action - Buzkashi Boys

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Jefforey Smith » Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:18 pm

I'm excited to be participating in this year's Oscar pool. Here are my picks:

Picture: Argo
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Director: Steven Spielberg
Original Screenplay: Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Production Design: Lincoln
Original Score: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Sound editing: Skyfall
Sound mixing: Les Miserables
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Makeup/Hair: Les Miserables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Foreign Language: Amour
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Documentary Short: Inocente
Animated Feature: Wrick It Ralph
Animated Short: Adam & Dog
Live Action Short: Asad


I'm based in Lexington, Kentucky. Sally Field visited here to tour The Mary Todd Lincoln House while preparing for Lincoln. She wore a big, floppy hat to sort of disguise herself & she was able to visit the site while other guests toured the home.

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Greg » Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:01 am

My final predictions:

Picture - Argo
Direction - - Steven Speilberg, Lincoln
Original Screenplay - Michael Hanake, Amour
Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio, Argo
Lead Actor - Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Lead Actress - Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Supporting Actress - Anee Hathaway, Les Miserables
Foriegn Language Film - Amour, Austria
Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph
Documentry Feature - Searching For Sugarman
Animated Short Subject - Paperman
Documentary Short Subject - Inocente
Live Action Short Subject - Buzkashi Boys
Original Song - -"Skyfall," Skyfall
Origianl Score - Argo
Film Editing - Argo
Cinematography - Life Of Pi
Sound Mixing - Les Miserables
Sound Editing - Life Of Pi
Production Design - Life Of Pi
Visual Effects - Life Of Pi
Costume Design - Anna Karenina
Makeup: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby mlrg » Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:33 am

My final winner predictions

Best Picture – Argo
Best Director – Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress – Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor – Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay – Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay – Argo
Best Original Score – Life of Pi
Best Original Song – “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Best Cinematography – Life of Pi
Best Film Editing – Argo
Best Art Direction – Les Miserables
Best Costume Design – Anna Karenina
Best Makeup – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Sound Mixing – Argo
Best Sound Effects – Argo
Best Visual Effects – Life of Pi
Best Foreign-Language Film – Amour
Best Animated Film – Wreck-it Ralph
Best Documentary – Searching for Sugar Man
Best Animated Short - Paperman

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Greg » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:35 pm

After glancing over my old ones, there are seven predictions I would change, four of them swithcing an award for Licoln to an award for Argo, which , at that time, I did not predict for a single award.
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:30 pm

We haven't had a prediction posted since Argo's sweep of major precursors, are we still comfortable with our old picks?

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:18 pm

My pre-Globes predictions:

Best Picture – Lincoln
Best Foreign-Language Film – Amour
Best Animated Film – Frankenweenie
Best Documentary – Searching for Sugar Man
Best Director – Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay – Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay – Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Original Score – Life of Pi
Best Original Song – “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Best Cinematography – Life of Pi
Best Film Editing – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Art Direction – Les Miserables
Best Costume Design – Les Miserables
Best Makeup – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Sound Mixing – Les Miserables
Best Sound Effects – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects – Life of Pi

TALLIES
5: Lincoln
4: Les Miserables
3: Life of Pi
2: Amour, Zero Dark Thirty
1: Frankenweenie, The Hobbit, Searching for Sugar Man, Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Sabin » Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:25 pm

Big Magilla wrote
I am so sick of reading Oscar blogs and critics' columns in which they say that the directors' branch of AMPAS has with one full swoop torpedoed the Best Picture chances of Zero Dark Thirty, Argo and Les Miz. They may have wounded their chances, but they haven't killed them.

Zero Dark Thirty maybe, but not Argo or Les Miz. Les Miz and to a lesser extent Argo are the kinds of films that can win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. They're not helped, to be sure, but it's possible. I think the biggest hurdle that Les Miserables faces now is the fact that it wasn't nominated for Best Film Editing. If anything kill it, that's it.

Big Magilla wrote
With 12 nominations, Lincoln has to be the favorite, but the favorite doesn't always win as has been proven all too frequently in recent years.

Especially if it's a soft favorite, like Lincoln.

Big Magilla wrote
The only award I see Lincoln winning for sure is Best Adapted Screenplay. Best Actor and Supporting Actor are also likely, but Spielberg's films have lost before. I see him losing Best Director to Michael Haneke with Best Picture still up in the air.

Really?!? Michael Haneke? I'd be thrilled to see Haneke take this, but I'm not sure.

I think Lincoln is a lock for Best Actor. That's my most certain bet. Because Lincoln is up against Argo and Silver Linings Playbook, two films that would otherwise win Best Adapted Screenplay in a walk, I'm not so sure I'm with everyone in saying that Lincoln is as done a dead for a writing Oscar.

Big Magilla wrote
This year there are five other films that could win. I think the only award Silver Linings Playbook might possibly win is Best Actress, but it's also possible that the film's small but vocal supporters could blast through the competition.

Voters clearly love Silver Linings Playbook. It did about as well as anyone could have imagined on Oscar morning. Better than Sideways, better than Up in the Air, better than As Good As It Gets, better than Jerry Maguire...I keep going back in my head and wondering what was the last movie like it to do this well. It's early obviously, but I think Jennifer Lawrence is a good bet to win Best Actress (again: Jessica Chastain sure sounds like the winner, but you really gotta see her performance to understand what I'm talking about...and you will :) ) and I'd say it's between her and Emmanuel Riva. I also think there's a longshot chance it wins Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor, and (don't laugh) Best Picture. Voters clearly loved this film.

Big Magilla wrote
Amour should win Best Original Screenplay and Foreign Film as well as Director and Actress, but becoming the first foreign language Best Picture in addition to Best Foreign Language Film seems too much of a stretch.

I agree. But Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director (to go along with the destined Best Foreign-Language Oscar)) are in the running.

Big Magilla wrote
Backlash against the U.S. Senate's misguided attacks on Zero Dark Thirty could give the film a resurgent popularity amongst voters and throw in Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound and just maybe, Best Actress. They could also take a fallback position and give it to Argo without giving the film any other awards. That would be a first since the early days of Oscar.

I think Argo has a chance for Best Film Editing and Best Sound. While I think Tommy Lee Jones is the best bet for Best Supporting Actor, on the basis of his great lines Arkin could surprise everyone. So could Argo's script. I can't see Argo winning Best Picture without anything else, but I don't think it's a sure thing that it's going home empty-handed.

Big Magilla wrote
And, yes, they could still give it to Les Miz along with Best Supporting Actress and a technical award or two or three.

I still haven't seen the film but considering how much cross-cutting I'd imagine is in Les Miserables, its unbelievable that it couldn't get a Film Editing nomination.

Big Magilla wrote
The only thing I'm certain about is that nothing is certain, which makes this still the most interesting Oscar race in years.

Truth.
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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:15 am

I am so sick of reading Oscar blogs and critics' columns in which they say that the directors' branch of AMPAS has with one full swoop torpedoed the Best Picture chances of Zero Dark Thirty, Argo and Les Miz. They may have wounded their chances, but they haven't killed them.

Tom Hooper was an iffy nominee thanks, as I've said, more for his patting himself on the back for "inventing" a new way of filming musicals than for the vitriolic bombasts of certain critics. Kathryn Bigelow has more than likely been unfairly sidelined by the controversy surrounding her film, though the controversy didn't hurt anyone else connected with the film. As for Ben Affleck, who knows, but all it really means is that none of the three can win Best Director. It doesn't stop their films from winning Best Picture without them.

With 12 nominations, Lincoln has to be the favorite, but the favorite doesn't always win as has been proven all too frequently in recent years.

The only award I see Lincoln winning for sure is Best Adapted Screenplay. Best Actor and Supporting Actor are also likely, but Spielberg's films have lost before. I see him losing Best Director to Michael Haneke with Best Picture still up in the air.

Two previous years come to mind: 1989 when Driving Miss Daisy won without a Best Director nomination, taking just three other awards for Best Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Makeup and 1972 when The Godfather won with just two other awards for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

This year there are five other films that could win. I think the only award Silver Linings Playbook might possibly win is Best Actress, but it's also possible that the film's small but vocal supporters could blast through the competition.

Amour should win Best Original Screenplay and Foreign Film as well as Director and Actress, but becoming the first foreign language Best Picture in addition to Best Foreign Language Film seems too much of a stretch.

Backlash against the U.S. Senate's misguided attacks on Zero Dark Thirty could give the film a resurgent popularity amongst voters and throw in Original Screenplay, Editing, Sound and just maybe, Best Actress. They could also take a fallback position and give it to Argo without giving the film any other awards. That would be a first since the early days of Oscar.

And, yes, they could still give it to Les Miz along with Best Supporting Actress and a technical award or two or three.

The only thing I'm certain about is that nothing is certain, which makes this still the most interesting Oscar race in years.

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Okri » Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:20 am

OscarGuy wrote:I look at these predictions and I have to ask: why is everyone saying it's such an exciting year? Most of the predictions below are nearly identical with a handful of differences here and there in the big categories, but few...I'd say it looks quite predictable if most people tend to agree who the leaders in the races are.


1. It feels like AMPAS thought for themselves. "These are the films we like" as opposed to "These are the films we're supposed to like."

2. A pleasingly off kilter set of nominees in general: Riva and Wallis over Mirren; Phoenix cracking the line-up despite a massively difficult film and persona.

3. We were wrong before. So even if people are predicting the same films, it doesn't mean we're all gonna be right. We thought Bigelow and Affleck were locks, after all. Who knows if love for Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook will shift the race.

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Re: Winner predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:54 am

Big Magilla wrote:I wouldn't have thought Daniel Day-Lewis would win over Jean-Louis Trintignant and John Hawkes, but considering the actual competition, a third Oscar is well within his grasp.

Tommy Lee Jones has Best Supporting Actor in the bag.


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Re: Winner predictions

Postby criddic3 » Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:56 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I look at these predictions and I have to ask: why is everyone saying it's such an exciting year? Most of the predictions below are nearly identical with a handful of differences here and there in the big categories, but few...I'd say it looks quite predictable if most people tend to agree who the leaders in the races are.


To be fair, what we think are the front-runners may end up being wrong. By this point in the race, post-nominations, it's never a wild-card race. Still, people like to believe that one or two nominees are way ahead of the pack. It makes them feel authoritative, but sadly the Academy voters seem to be prone to this mentality, too. Who knows? There could be a picture/director split or maybe they think they've given Day-Lewis his due. After all, Morgan Freeman was a front-runner at one point for playing Mandela, and he ended up losing that year.
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