Post-ballot Predictions

For the films of 2012
Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6409
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:56 pm

And narrowing down which of those six films will score under director is also more difficult than in the past years-of-ten. I think nearly everyone sees Spielberg/Bigelow/Affleck, but after that it's fill in the blank from among Tarantino/Anderson/Lee/Russell/Haneke/Hooper. And I DO think lone director is back to being a possibility, esp. if best picture ends up a shorter (6-7) slate.

I'm also interested to see if best picture comes back to reflecting best screenplay, as it did in '09 and '10 (8 and 9 matches, respectively). Last year, even with 9 best picture contenders, a paltry 5 crossed over. I haven't decided if that was due to the screenwriting weakness displayed by such efforts as War Horse and The Help, or if it was a bug of the method by which best pictures were nominated vis a vis the other categories. (You'd have thought that Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, with actor/screenplay/score, was a better bet for best film than Extremely Loud with its 1 acting nod) It's not impossible that the (relatively) low bar of 5% of voters to secure a best picture slot might be persuading some groups to vote en bloc in that category -- much the way studios did in the days when they got Mutiny on the Bounty ('62) and Cleopatra nominated, while the directing/screenwriting slots went to other, much better films with broader support.

I don't know if it's the grouping of films this year -- the sheer number of artistically and commercially successful ones on hand -- or the fact that we have less predictive data on hand than usual this close to nominations day. But I can't recall things feeling this up in the air recently (except in wishful terms). This year, I'm genuinely curious about how a great many categories will shake out. It could obviously go south on us -- SAG could just repeat across the board. But it's also possible we could have a 2007, where both SAG and DGA were significantly contradicted by AMPAS.

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4175
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:27 pm

One other thought I had today: in the past, I've criticized the expansion from five in Best Picture for the fact that it has made the race more predictable. But at this juncture, I have to admit, it seems wildly up in the air, both in terms of how many movies are going to make it and which movies.

As Okri says, in a field of five, this race would probably come down to the six movies he cites, and you'd get the category 5/5 depending on if you correctly predicted which one would be excluded. (Even in the brief must-have-ten period, we had a year like this (2010), where everyone's predictions basically came down to whether or not you had The Town in or out.)

But this year, you've got a pretty big divide between the top six, and a bunch of other movies that seem like they could make it, given the option for available spots, but which seem pretty iffy for various reasons -- Django, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts, Marigold Hotel, Amour. (And I guess Skyfall would have to be considered at least in the conversation, though I think the Academy's historical anathema to Bond makes those folks betting on this are really setting themselves up for another Dark Knight situation.)

I sort of feel like I have no idea which on-the-bubble candidates are going to amass enough support to crack the list, and that's exciting at this stage in the game.

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15640
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:39 pm

1. Kinsey was a much more high profile movie than The Sessions. Its lack of recognition outside of Best Supporting Actress was shocking. Could The Sessions suffer the same fate? Possibly, not because of the subject matter but because of the highly competitive best actor race. I don't think it will happen = Hawkes is playing a handicapped person, which is almost always a sure ticket to a nomination in a highly publicized performance.

2. I was underwhelmed by Moonrise Kingdom and loathed Beasts of the Southern Wild, but both have their supporters, so, yes, they could make it in but only if the nominees stretch beyond eight IMO.

3. Actually I think it's pretty balanced between relative newcomers and those who've been around for a while. It's a bit bizarre to think that Trintignant and Riva would be "newcomers" while Hawkes, Chastain, Lawrence and Hathaway would all be "veterans" of the Oscar races.

4. Lone director is less of a possibility when the best picture field is double or close to double that of the number of directors, but, yes, it could happen. Haneke could be the odd man out, but I think if he's liked well enough to earn a slot from the directors, his film is liked enough to be nominated for Best Picture. I'm not seeing any other possibilities this year.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 2591
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:09 pm

Random questions I'm just tossing out there.

1. Is anyone else getting a Kinsey feeling from The Sessions?
Both are similarly sex-friendly (presumably, I haven't seen the latter film). Both have an acclaimed leading man looking for his second nomination, and a leading lady looking for a second (in support, natch). Both are Fox Searchlight films that were overlooked by their studio for "bigger hits" (Sideways/Beasts if the Southern Wild). Would Hunt really be so comfortable if supporting actress was ANY stronger? Granted, 2004's supporting actress race had six/seven solid candidates that were gunning for those five slots, so maybe.

2. How do you read Beasts of the Southern Wild or Moonrise Kingdom?
I find Beasts very hard to read. Because it was ineligible for two guild awards, it's hard to gauge just how loved/liked/hated it actually is. The one major guild award it was eligible for, it got (and I'd argue the PGA is definitely a get for an off-the-wall indie). But it didn't crossover the way some people (aka, me), thought it might. 11 million is quite respectable, on the one hand, for a film of it's kind (very independent, kinda weird). On the other hand, I really thought it would crack twenty million or more given that those that love it really loved it. It's an odd indie in that many of it's qualities are quite mainstream, nomination wise. The score is lyrical bombast. The cinematography gives us a great deal of "natural" beauty. I do think it stands a good shot at getting enough number one votes to push it to the final slate, but I wonder.

Meanwhile, Moonrise Kingdom has been doing reasonably well, if not excitingly so. It also snagged a Producers Guild nomination. It got the expect WGA salute. It's Anderson's highest grossing film since The Royal Tenenbaums and is another film with a surprising cross-spectrum appeal. Could it be a surprise candidate in the final line-up?

3. Where are the newcomers?
EW is currently predicting 17 returning nominees. That's insane. That has never happened before. There were more newcomers last year.... in supporting actress alone (Bejo, Chastain, Spencer and McCarthy were on the first nominations). It would've been interesting to see this year played out a la 2002 and see if that would change anything.

4. Is the lone director still a possibility?
Over on Nathaniel Rogers podcast, Joe Ried suggested that he could see Haneke or Anderson snagging a lone director nomination. Now, as Mister Tee pointed out, these two have been paired quite consistently throughout this race, and both seem like they would appeal to approximately the same group of AMPAS voters. Whether there are enough to put one or both in the final five remains to be seen. But, more generally..

We've been operating on the assumption that the lone director is unlikely - the feeling being that if the directors love a film enough to nominate the director as one of it's five, that it likely has enough love overall to make it through. But this year seems like it could happen. We do have a pretty strong group of six that would be duking it out in a year of five (Argo, Silver Linings, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Life of Pi). Three of them seem like the type of film where the director could lose out plausibly (O'Russell, Lee, Hooper). It would be weird for all of them to fail, of course, but two could. And I can imagine the directors going for Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild without the film having AMPAS-wide support (whereas I do think The Master, were it to be that strong, would likely be able to get in on the strength of three acting + writing + directing); it's not as if the director's branch is the biggest (both the acting and writing branches have more members, I believe).

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15640
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 06, 2013 3:51 am

Precious Doll wrote:
flipp525 wrote:Two nominations for Maggie Smith, Magilla? Not happening. Quartet looks very slight, too. Give up on your obsession with old women!


Having seen Quartet I can confirm that not only is it slight, but it's also a monumental bore. I adore Maggie Smith but she really has nothing to do in the film that would merit any award consideration.

I'm not sold on the idea but it's a feeling I have that Maggie Smith, unexpectedly at a new career high, will be nominated for two Oscars this year, deserving or not. As has been pointed out - repeatedly - I don't have a very good record of predicting Oscar nominations for old ladies so the odds are against it, but I'd hate to ignore the feeling and find out Thursday that my hunch was right all along.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

rudeboy
Adjunct
Posts: 1323
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2004 8:00 am
Location: Singapore
Contact:

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby rudeboy » Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:46 am

anonymous1980 wrote:But then again, the cineaste/cinephile wing of the Academy pushed through for The Tree of Life


The Tree of Life (a film I disliked) is a day at the beach next to Amour (a film I loved). Seriously, I'd be happy to be proven wrong but I don't see a nomination for it. When was the last time a film as bleak as this was nominated? Cries & Whispers, maybe?

User avatar
Precious Doll
Tenured
Posts: 3336
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2003 2:20 am
Location: Sydney
Contact:

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:44 am

flipp525 wrote:Two nominations for Maggie Smith, Magilla? Not happening. Quartet looks very slight, too. Give up on your obsession with old women!


Having seen Quartet I can confirm that not only is it slight, but it's also a monumental bore. I adore Maggie Smith but she really has nothing to do in the film that would merit any award consideration.
"I have no interest in all of that. I find that all tabloid stupidity" Woody Allen, The Guardian, 2014, in response to his adopted daughter's allegations.

User avatar
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 5816
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:03 pm

Here are mine.

Best Picture (in order of likelihood)
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

6th: Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
DH: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

6th: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
DH: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

6th: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
DH: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

6th: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
DH: Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

6th: Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
DH: Judi Dench, Skyfall
Last edited by flipp525 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

User avatar
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 5816
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 11:29 am

Two nominations for Maggie Smith, Magilla? Not happening. Quartet looks very slight, too. Give up on your obsession with old women!
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."



-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4175
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Sat Jan 05, 2013 11:28 am

STILL with Maggie Smith in Quartet? New year, same Magilla!

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15640
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Jan 05, 2013 9:22 am

I think last year was an off-year for popular film. In the words of one of the dead-on songs from A Chorus Line, "I felt nothing". The Descendants and Moneyball left me cold. Midnight in Paris only came alive when it visited the past. Hugo and The Artist I liked for what they tried to do more than for what they actually accomplished.

The Help had wide popular appeal that spread beyond the octogenarian set, but to me it was a lot of fluff thrown at a very serious situation that probably wouldn't have been half as popular if it weren't for "the pie".

This year is more like a traditional Academy year in that all the popular choices have an emotional weight to them. If you look at past history in almost every situation the film with the greatest emotional pull is the one that wins. In a situation like, say, 1962 when it can be argued that To Kill a Mockingbird had a greater emotional pull than Lawrence of Arabia, the technical artistry of the latter was clearly superior so they split the difference between Best Picture and Best Actor. In the case of the now much maligned Around the World in 80 Days, the emotional pull was not so much what was on screen (there was precious little) but in the fact that the film employed so many actors who might not otherwise have gotten work.

This year comes down to which film resonates more with more voters than the other and since a case can be made for at least six of the potential nominees, it really will be like a horse race to the finish line.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 5179
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Re: Post-ballot Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 8:43 am

I love Amour. It's my favorite film of the year so far. I *hope* you are right that it makes it in but I really doubt it. The film may be Michael Haneke's most accessible film but it's quite a difficult sit and it's a real downer. I don't know if at least 5 percent of Academy members would rank it as #1. But then again, the cineaste/cinephile wing of the Academy pushed through for The Tree of Life.

Looking at the 9 Best Pictures last year, you can definitely see the make up of the Academy through what they nominated:

1. The Popular Consensus (working actors & artisans) (The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball)
2. The Cineaste (writers & directors) (The Tree of Life)
3. The Octogenerian Middlebrow (old people) (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, War Horse)

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15640
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Post-ballot Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Jan 05, 2013 7:45 am

Oscar ballots were due back at 5 P.M. yesterday after balloting was extended a day due to on-line problems. Whatever happens between now and Thursday morning when the nominations are announced can't affect anything. Here are my predictions in the top eight races:

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I would be surprised to see any of these six left out. I would expect Django Unchained and Life of Pi to make it in an eight-way race and anything, but most likely The Master and Skyfall, if it goes to ten.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
alt. Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
alt. Maggie Smith, Quartet

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
alt. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
alt. Amy Adams, The Master

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

alt. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
The Master
Middle of Nowhere
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire


Return to “85th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests