dws1982 wrote:OscarGuy wrote:If there's a group that will determine is of "Literary" quality, it's the USC Scripter awards. They aren't the greatest Oscar predictors, but if Life of Pi can grab a nod there, I'd be more likely to feel it safer as an Oscar nominee.
Unfortunately (for Oscar prediction purposes) they announce their five nominees after the Oscar nominations come out.
I think there's significant downside to the extremely early nominations announcement this year -- mainly, I think the compressed time-frame almost assures the nominees will come from a limited field of the most heavily promoted/praised, as there won't be time for voters to make off-the-beaten-track discoveries.
But...on the sunny side: with precursors like Scripter and ACE not even making their nominations known till after AMPAS, and with other major forecasters appearing only days/hours before the Oscar nods (and post-ballot deadlines), the Oscar nods might feel for the first time in a while like they came from the voters themselves, and weren't just a lightly-adjusted amalgam of other lists issued in the month previous.
And I, for one, am hoping that, on the night of the 10th, the Broadcasters blush with shame as they give an award to someone who failed to receive an Oscar nod that very morning, undermining the BFCA's entire raison d'etre.