Big picture-wise, let me respond to rolo's comment that how Les Mis fares in the critics' voting is inconsequential to its Oscar chances. In a vacuum, I don't disagree -- a lack of critics' prizes didn't stop Chicago from becoming the frontrunner once the TV awards kicked in. But I do think that today's big winners (Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln) fit far more in Oscar's wheelhouse than say, something like Far From Heaven ever did. Which is to say, I think critics' prizes to Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln (especially if they repeat at other orgs) will at least put a damper on the Les Mis steamroller some people seem to be predicting.
I think if Day-Lewis becomes Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote (precursor-wise), it'll be hard for the "third Oscar" problem to trip him up. But, if someone else can make the race competitive, that would definitely be a factor that could hurt him.
WHOA, on Best Actress! Weisz's film is available on Netflix Instant, for those wanting to check it out. (I haven't seen it myself.) I will also disagree that Weisz has no shot at an Oscar nod. I honestly think that in a Best Actress race that's so amorphous, why couldn't a past winner with a major critics' prize make some kind of dent?
Mister Tee, I certainly don't expect a movie about male strippers to be your favorite film of the year, but I was pleasantly surprised by what Magic Mike turned out to be. The film had been marketed as a silly romp, but it's a Steven Soderbergh movie through and through -- with interesting & detailed visual framing, a relaxed sense of pace, and sense of sadness and grit that permeates this story of guys who essentially sell their bodies for a living. (The part that appealed to me -- the Soderbergh-iness of it -- is exactly what turned off a lot of people I know expecting some kind of cheese-tastic camp-fest.) And Matthew McConaughey totally sells his part, in the kind of dramatic change-of-pace role that maybe didn't alter my view of him as an actor, but which definitely utilized his persona to exciting ends. I hope this award will cause more people to consider the strength of his performance, despite the movie's subject matter.
I can't believe anyone would be shocked at Sally Field winning a prize like this. The only reason she isn't more in the Oscar conversation is because she already has two Oscars, and no one's clamoring to give her a third. But it makes total sense to me that this performance in this movie would win some prizes, and only Oscar tunnel vision is what's leading some people to think that Anne Hathaway is unstoppable EVERYWHERE.