Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[Big Magilla]

They may have, the film is shrouded in secrecy. IMDb. does eference the kill, but the IMDb. isn't always accurate.

[OscarGuy]

Originally it was about something else, but they had to make last-minute script changes because of the killing of bin laden. I had though they reshot to include that information, but I may be wrong.

[Big Magilla]

If Zero Dark Thirty is about the capture and killing of Bin Laden they changed the script. It was initially supposed to be about a previous hunt. The trailer doesn't give away very much. But so much is known about the actual event it could come off as anti-climactic.

[OscarGuy]

real life kiling, you mean...and the movie is ABOUT that event, so I don't see that makes it anti-climactic. Besides, if they don't nominate it (which they will), there will be all sorts of cries about how hollow their selection of the "first female Best Director" was all politics and not genuine, etc.

Lincoln will be nominated just like War Horse was. No matter how disappointing Spielberg is, he gets nominations out of respect (and lots of politicking). Les Miserables is one of those movies that takes place in another country about other people that, due to modern political situations, can be taken as metaphor for our current lives. That won't be lost on anyone. The Academy can vote for something as a protest against current situations without looking like the leftist liberals that shows like Modern Family and Game Change did at last night's Emmys.

I still think Silver Linings is the ultimate winner, but a lot will depend on how Les Mis iz received by critics.

[Big Magilla]

I predicted Million Dollar Baby would win when everyone else was still thinking Sideways or The Avaiator would win, but I had no expectations for Aviator so maybe I'm misremembering what happened post-Golden Globes but I still recall it as an exciting year compared to more recent years.

I found the trailer to Life of Pi disappointing. It may make it the nominations but I don't see it as a front-runner. Django Unchained could be all hype. Zero Dark Thirty may be great but after the real life capture of Bin Laden seems a bit anti-climactic. Flight may be Denzel Washington's best film in years, but it doesn't sound like a best picture/director winner. Anything is possible, but at this point I'd only bet on the crowd-pleasers - Argo; Silver Linings Playbook and yes, Les Miserables. Everything else is up for grabs. And wouldn't it be nice if the various critics groups all go their own way, not agreeing on every film and performance so that Oscar looks like either a carbon copy or out of touch if it rejects everyone else's choice?

[Sabin]

Did it really come down to Sideways and Million Dollar Baby? I remember having little doubt in my mind that M$B had it in the bag considering it failed nominations for Editing and Giamatti. All notions of an Aviator win started to vanish once Eastwood beat Scorsese at the Golden Globes.

Lincoln has begun to screen quietly and to not incredible responses. Considering that this is going to be a very long film with very patriotic music about a bunch of white guys in rooms politically maneuvering towards what we already know is going to happen, I'm starting to think it won't be the heavy we may have thought it to be after all.

We know that Silver Linings Playbook is going over rather wonderfully. It's the month+ bridging Toronto's hype and a theatrical release that will need sustaining. Argo seems like a definite nominee. What we have no idea about is Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty, and Flight. What we have not heard anything from but looks to me like the year's huge Oscar winner is Les Miserables. If it is correctly positioned as the event of the winter, I could see it winning more Oscars than any film since Slumdog Millionaire. Because the general theme is the desire to overcome, it has the added cachet of capturing the societal zeitgeist. People will be moved and flock to see it. I'm not super-eager to sit down for presumably two-and-a-half hours of a crying machine that goes to eleven but I probably will be closer to alone than not.

[Big Magilla]

This could be the most interesting Oscar race since 2004 when Million Dollar Baby and Sideways went down to the wire for Best Picture; Hilary Swank, Annette Bening and Kate Winslet all had their partisans for Best Actress and Cate Blanchett, Laura Linney and Virginia Madsen duked it out for Best Supporting Actress with only Jamie Foxx and Morgan Freeman considered front-runners from the get-go.

The following year we had the upset win of Crash over Brokeback Mountain and 2011 gave us a down to the wire guessing game between The King's Speech and The Social Network, but otherwise best picture predictions from around this time forward have pretty much held sway. This year no one is predicting winners in any category. The sight unseen Lincoln was thought to be a prohibitive favorite but after a test screening in New Jersey the other night looks like it could go the way of Spielberg's War Horse which leaves the field open for apparent crowd-pleasers Argo and Silver Linings Playbook and critical faves Amour and The Master complicated by the pushed up release of Hitchcockwhich is ostensibly about the making of Psycho, but is really a love story about Hitch and his wife and creative partner, Alma Reville. Fox Searchlight is already beating their drums for Hopkins and Mirren as well as Scarlett Johannsen who plays Janet Leigh, but I have a hunch Toni Collette as Hitch's assistant Peggy Robertson might have a stronger pull on audiences than Johanssen. And don't count out Les Miserables, the most anticipated movie musical in a decade.

[criddic3]

I seriously think this may the year Richard Gere gets to be called "Oscar-nominee." Having seen "Arbitrage," it's just the right role at the right time. He's been around over 30 years, and has been in critically acclaimed fare over the last 15 years (I'm starting with "Primal Fear," since before that I never really took him seriously as an actor). And I would love to see Jack Black get in somehow, but I realize his film was small and barely seen from earlier in the year. Has Bill Murray dropped from the conversation so soon before "Hyde Park on the Hudson" even premieres?

I agree with those who said Best Actress looks particularly weak. Hopefully a few actresses will surprise before the year ends. Maybe Helen Mirren and Laura Linney?

[mlrg]

Fox Searchlight has just announced that they will release Hitchcock on November 26th.

I think this adds Mirren, Johanssen and specially Hopkins (in a particularly crowded year in the best actor category) to the Oscar race.

[OscarGuy]

Best Picture Forrest Gump?

I joke. She was just in The Amazing Spider-Man as Aunt May.

[bizarre]

I think Sabin's point was that Sally Field is not really known for her film work anymore.

To me she seems like weird casting simply because, on film, she seems to be from a different time. When's the last time she was in a major theatrical release?

[Precious Doll]

Sally Field in Norma Rae - one of the most deserved victories of all time.

And that great moment in Norma Rae when she holds up the piece of cardboard with 'UNION' written on it and the workers at the mill begin to turn off their machinery is one of the greatest moments in cinema history.

I cannot help but have a soft spot for Sally Field.

[Reza]

File me on the flipp side of the flipp-vs.-Sabin Sally-Field debate. Also, I never thought "Oh, that's Sally Field" in Norma Rae.

That's probably because in '79 Sally Field wasn't the Sally Field we know today......hence she was a fresh presence on film.

I also think she is quite perfect as Mary Todd. However, it would be rather excessive if both Day-Lewis and Sally got their third Oscars for this film.

[Greg]

File me on the flipp side of the flipp-vs.-Sabin Sally-Field debate. Also, I never thought "Oh, that's Sally Field" in Norma Rae.

[Sabin]

I haven't seen Lincoln. I don't know how she or anybody else is in the film (although DDL's voice pattern is a bit distracting), but I've never been able to watch Sally Field in anything without thinking "Oh, that's Sally Field" the entire time.