Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[Precious Doll]

Plus - and I am probably the only one here who HAS seen Amour, so you can trust me - this not only isnt a sentimental portrayal of old age - it's an extremely tough, psychologically and visually tough I mean, portrayal of old age, illness and death, one that the Academy will really have serious problems dealing with (and would have serious problems with even if it were an American movie - but then Amour could never be an American movie. Argo it isn't). The Foreign Film branch will, of course, feel compelled to nominate it, if only because of its reputation, and maybe the Writers will appreciate it - but for the much less daring Actors it will be more difficult. Trintignant has ZERO chances of being nominated; Riva would have zero chances too except that this seems to be a weak year for her category. If she wins some critics prizes she might get in, but even if this happens, forget about an Oscar for her.

You're not the only one to have seen Amour I'm afraid. I was lucky enough to see Amour a few weeks after it was shown at Cannes. Okri and I think Bizzare have also seen Amour. I can see where you are coming from re: Amour's chances, and have to admit that my admiration for the film is probably clouding my views on it's Oscar potential. But I still think it will be up for Picture, Foreign Language Film, Actor, Actress, Director & Screenplay.

[OscarGuy]

The implications *I* was reading below was that she was being pushed for lead, not support. I was referencing that and confirming it was an incorrect viewpoint.

[The Original BJ]

Helen Hunt ISN'T being pushed for lead. I don't know where that talk is coming from, but I have the screener for The Sessions. Fox Searchlight has her listed FYC in Supporting Actress. So, put any talk of a lead nomination out of your minds.

I believe we're all aware of that. I presme BJ's thinking is, it's a borderline-if-not-fraudulent placement, and, if the best actess slate remains thin, voters might take it upon themselves to bump Hunt up (the way they did Keisha Castle-Hughes, and, long ago, Sarandon in Atlantic City, despite the campaigns' wishes)

And let's not forget Kate Winslet in The Reader.

I accepted long ago that voters don't reject category fraud as much as they should, but it is worth noting that it DOES happen occasionally, and Helen Hunt strikes me as a case that could be an exception. I'd probably put Hunt's supporting campaign in the "you're really pushing it" category. Not quite the "no way, no how" territory I'd save for folks like Casey Affleck and Jamie Foxx -- protagonists who had the largest roles in their films. But just because Hunt isn't in EVERY scene in The Sessions doesn't make her a clear supporting actor, in my opinion. Her character may not appear in the earliest scenes in the film, but once she arrives she's on-screen pretty consistently. Yes, John Hawkes has scenes with William H. Macy (and others) that don't involve her...but she also has numerous scenes that don't include Hawkes, so I have a hard time viewing her simply as an ancillary character to HIS story. (Putting it another way...like John Hawkes in The Sessions, Jack Nicholson is the clear protagonist in As Good As It Gets, but I don't think anyone would argue that Hunt was supporting in that, even though her role is definitely smaller than his.)

But it's not just the size of the role that makes me think a lead nod is still possible. In fame terms, Helen Hunt, like Kate Winslet, is not viewed as a supporting actress. She's not competing against another actor of her gender from the same film, and the Best Actress field this year could be very thin. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that voters struggling to find Best Actress candidates could promote her.

In contrast, I also think Philip Seymour Hoffman is a lead in The Master, but I see no way he'd be promoted due to the fact that 1) Best Actor is an over-crowded field already, 2) he'd be competing against Phoenix, and 3) lead Oscar be damned, he's still primarily viewed as a character actor.

[Mister Tee]

Helen Hunt ISN'T being pushed for lead. I don't know where that talk is coming from, but I have the screener for The Sessions. Fox Searchlight has her listed FYC in Supporting Actress. So, put any talk of a lead nomination out of your minds.

I believe we're all aware of that. I presme BJ's thinking is, it's a borderline-if-not-fraudulent placement, and, if the best actess slate remains thin, voters might take it upon themselves to bump Hunt up (the way they did Keisha Castle-Hughes, and, long ago, Sarandon in Atlantic City, despite the campaigns' wishes)

[OscarGuy]

Helen Hunt ISN'T being pushed for lead. I don't know where that talk is coming from, but I have the screener for The Sessions. Fox Searchlight has her listed FYC in Supporting Actress. So, put any talk of a lead nomination out of your minds.

I am familiar with the name Trintingnant, but Riva seems less familiar to me and while we wish the Academy had longer memories, they haven't really been that excited about recognizing cinematic legends in recent years (Plummer and von Sydow not withstanding).

Trintingnant will need critics prizes to get into a crowded field and it seems that critics will bend over backwards to recognize either Hawkes, Day-Lewis, Phoenix or Washington. I think a strong case could be made for Bradley Cooper (you know Harvey's going to...)

Anyway, I don't have the time at present to review the contenders for Best Actress, but it seemed a fairly strong field and, I'll just throw this out: I don't think the Academy will nominated two foreign language performances in the same category. I think Marion Cotillard may be the more likely nominee for Rust and Bone (if you've seen that trailer, you know just how sentimental a performance that is and the Academy will lap that up). I'll comment more on Best Actress later.

[Mister Tee]

If Trintingnant and Riva could switch categories, I think Trintignant would be a shoo-in for nomination. He's precisely the sort of long-time-famous non-English-speaker who can, to Uri's regret, get a nomination in a year with open slots. Think Catherine Deneuve/Indochine. (FilmFan, you may be too young to realize just how big an arthouse star he was in the 60s/70s. Back then he was probably second only to Mastroianni in terms of appearing in beloved foreign films. And even in more recent times he headlined Red, which got unexpected Oscar attention) His problem is, best actor is the most clearly loaded category this year. It's hard to see who can WIN out of the group, with already-two-time-winners Day-Lewis and Washington matched against maybe-too-green candidates like Hawkes and Cooper (Joaquin Phoenx would seem to hit the career-point sweet spot, but I'd seriously doubt a film that divisive could win a major acting award). But in terms of potential nominees, it's a very strong field. I think Trintignant has an uphill but not impossible battle in cracking it -- there might be a core of foreign-film fans big enough to push him through (as they did, say, von Sydow in '88, despite hefty competition).

Riva has, clearly, a better shot at qualifying based on paucity of rivals (though we need to wait out year's end, to see if Watts, Chastain or an upgraded Hunt make for a bigger English-language contingent than we see now). But I don't think she has, in Hollywood terms, near the career points Trintignant does - her most famous credit is 50 years in the past, and her name was never household even in hipster circles. She'll need serious critical support. The LA critics award would appear to be almost a must.

[ITALIANO]

Plus - and I am probably the only one here who HAS seen Amour, so you can trust me - this not only isnt a sentimental portrayal of old age - it's an extremely tough, psychologically and visually tough I mean, portrayal of old age, illness and death, one that the Academy will really have serious problems dealing with (and would have serious problems with even if it were an American movie - but then Amour could never be an American movie. Argo it isn't). The Foreign Film branch will, of course, feel compelled to nominate it, if only because of its reputation, and maybe the Writers will appreciate it - but for the much less daring Actors it will be more difficult. Trintignant has ZERO chances of being nominated; Riva would have zero chances too except that this seems to be a weak year for her category. If she wins some critics prizes she might get in, but even if this happens, forget about an Oscar for her.

[mlrg]

Hot babe, rising star = Jennifer Lawrence has this one in the bag. I'm ready to call it on November 11th!

[The Original BJ]

Do remember, too, that Moreno was nominated in a dry year for lead Actresses...this year, at least now, seems to be slightly more competitive.

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

It's this year that seems utterly barren. It's mid-November and just about the only potential nominee yet released is under the age of ten. (And I still have my doubts about her chances, but realize that in a year with so few options, she's got as good a chance as anybody.) There's a genuine chance voters might reject the Helen Hunt campaign as well, sensing so few options in the lead category and bumping her up.

All of this is to say, I think Riva's nomination chances are very good. It's her costar who will be competing in a far more crowded Best Actor field, and will likely face an uphill battle to a nod over his English-language competitors.

[FilmFan720]

Do remember, too, that Moreno was nominated in a dry year for lead Actresses...this year, at least now, seems to be slightly more competitive.

[mlrg]

I'm with FilmFan and Oscarguy on this. I still can't get all this hype for Amour. I'm not making any argument about the quality of the film (I haven't seen it), but I have my doubts about an Austrian film getting nominations in top categories, as much. as Haneke is regarded as a great film director or Trintignat and Riva great actors.

As I recall, Catalina Sandino Moreno made the talk show circuits during all season and was a hot babe from Colombia. And we all know how much sucker is the Academy for hot rising babes in the best actress category

[Precious Doll]

A few years ago Catalina Sandino Moreno would not have been known to virtually all of the voting Academy members and still managed it receive a nomination in a little seen film well liked by critics. If I recall correctly she won no major critic's awards.

Sony Picture who are releasing Amour in the U.S. later in this year will make sure everyone knowns who Emmaneulle Riva is and she will have a pile of major critics awards to help propel her to a nomination, along with what is turning out of be a not particularly crowded Best Actress field.

[FilmFan720]

I also do not understand where all of this Amour hype is coming from...yes it is supposed to be wonderful, but there is a large uphill battle for foreign-language films to get onto the Best Picture slate and I just don't see it happening here.

In the past 20 years, we have only had 3 foreign language Best Picture nominees: Il Postino, LIfe is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger... (I will exclude Letters from Iwo Jima, because it really was a Hollywood film). All 3 of those films were fairly large cultural events, and all of them had a lot of public support (even moreso than critical support for some of them). Does anyone really see Amour becoming that sort of box-office support? Are we really thinking it is going to break a $10, even $20 million mark? I highly doubt it. Also, remember that only once in the last 10 years has a Palme d'Or winner gone on to a Best Picture nomination, only 5 times in the last 20 years has it happened, and they have all been for English-language films (two of them by respected, previous Oscar nominees).

Finally, I know there are a lot of supporters of Trintignant and Riva, and I want to take nothing from them. But there is a dichotomy between legends of the world cinema and legends of Hollywood, and these two fall firmly in the camp of the former. I don't think there will be as much of a swelling in Hollywood that we "have" to honor these legends with an over-due Oscar nomination...has anyone ever talked about them in relation to a nomination before? If they get the award recognition that I have heard (and am sure) they so deserve, it will be due to a swelling of critical support, a weak field in their category where people fall out late or a combination of the two. I am due to bet that at this point right now, over half of Oscar voters can't even tell you who Riva is.

[Big Magilla]

Amoour is not a sentimental film. As good as an actor as Gordon Pinsett imay be, he does not have the reputation either Trinitgnant or Riva do. The star of A Man and a Woman; Z and The Conformist and the star of Hiroshima Mon Amour are living legends. There are no guarantees, but if they do well in the pre-cursors a subsequent failure of the Academy to nominate them will not meet with the same shrug as a non-nomination for lesser known foreign actors.

[OscarGuy]

I think everyone is giving too much credit to Amour. I know they are nothing alike, but the last time we had a film about age and memory, Gordon Pinsent didn't get nominated and Julie Christie lost...the Academy isn't that sentimental. I think it's more likely that Jackman will win if only because he's a big name, former Oscar host and respected actor. He's the kind of choice that the public would celebrate. We know he has talent with music and he has a Tony Award for acting. On the Actress side, I'm not ready to make a projection.