Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[flipp525]

Before I can predict Sally Field for Lincoln I have to get over the fact that Sally Field was actually cast in Lincoln.

Get this: Sally Field is wearing crazy ole Mary Todd's real pearls from the collection at the Library of Congress!

Not sure what you're saying here. I think Field is pretty spot-on casting for MTL.

[Big Magilla]

The screenplay for Les Miserables was written by William Nicholson who has two Oscar nominations for his screenplays for Gladiator and Shadowlands and whose credits also inlcude Nell; First Night and Elizabeth: The Golden Age. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to write anything that will enhance anything in Hugo's original and/or the stageplay.

[Sabin]

Why is Anne Hathaway not in a romcom that grosses $100 mil-ish every year? I'll give her credit for that. It's not her fault that One Day didn't catch on or that Love and Other Drugs was such a bomb that her jokes about it at the Oscars were met by a silence indicative of collective amnesia of its existence. She is a strikingly beautiful woman with great comedic timing. Why she isn't at a Julia Roberts level already is evidence of the franchise-happy age we live in. Or perhaps Julia Roberts really was the last gasp of an un-ironic market that has since dried up.

Either way, all I'm saying is that Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables sounds like an Oscar-winning performance in the same way that Helena Bonham Carter sounded like a sure thing for The King's Speech. Or Michelle Pfeiffer sounded like a sure thing for White Oleander. Or how with Vanilla Sky and Gangs of New York, 2001 was definitely going to end with Cameron Diaz winning an Oscar. Some of these were not collective gulps of the Kool-Aid, but you get my point.

[OscarGuy]

BJ, I think there's another factor playing into it. Hathaway has been bubbling under for some time, never quite getting the Oscar attention she deserves (though her recent output hasn't been that great). I'd almost be more excited to see her in the conversation for The Dark Knight Rises, easily the best performance in that film. And that trailer, she does a fantastic job, so I can see why she's in the conversation. There's also some debate about whether her role was beefed up for the film. If it was, most of this conversation will be pretty pointless.

[The Original BJ]

Is it just me or does saying "Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables" strike anyone as one of those candidates that people speak about without really thinking about whether or not she'll really stand-out? Forgive me but is Fantine in that much of the play? It's certainly possible that Anne Hathaway could get in.

I'm of the opinion that no one can really be a lock for an Oscar nomination until after their film has been released...but even putting that aside, the web-consensus on Anne Hathaway as a supporting actress favorite strikes me as unusually optimistic. It's worth noting that TWO supporting actresses received Tony nominations for the Broadway Les Mis (with one winning), but NEITHER of them played Fantine.

"I Dreamed a Dream" provides an actress a great number...but there's really not all that much more to the part than that. I'm not saying Hathaway WON'T be in the conversation, but I feel like the actress's big star status and the fact that she and her number got a lot of exposure in the trailer are making some people forget how small the role was on stage, and the fact that Samantha Barks's part (which DID win a Tony) is more of the story's emotional heart.

[Greg]

It's certainly possible that Anne Hathaway could get in. I mean after all, she's playing Amanda Seyfried's mother. That's...a stretch.

Really, she is playing Isabelle Allen's (Young Cosette's) mother.

[Sabin]

It is far, far, far! too early to be talking about these things, so here are my thoughts.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST PICTURE:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
* Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
The Impossible
The Master

I shouldn't remain dubious about Life of Pi but I am. I know it has Ang Lee. I know this is a mega-production, but it just looks like a giant new-agey flop to me. I'm probably wrong about that though. Django Unchained also fills me with a bit of alarm. If Inglourious Basterds confronted us with a bit of comic book-deep historical revisionism, what can we say about Django Unchained? Nothing obviously. It hasn't come out yet. Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook look like good bets. I have Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom on my list too, but I could see either one getting batted off. The Impossible could be like 127 Hours. And what else? I know that Star Trek couldn't make it in, but what about The Avengers?

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST DIRECTOR:
* Paul Thomas Anderson … The Master
Juan Antonio Bayona … The Impossible
Tom Hooper … Les Misérables
Ang Lee … Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin … Beasts of the Southern Wild

I have Ben Affleck, Paul Thomas Anderson, and David O. Russell in over Juan Antonio Bayona, Ang Lee, and Benh Zeitlin.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper … Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis … Lincoln
* John Hawkes … The Sessions
Hugh Jackman … Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix … The Master

Yup. Only one iffy IMO is Jackman. Only when the film comes out will we know.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST ACTRESS:
Marion Cotillard … Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley … Anna Karenina
* Jennifer Lawrence … Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith … Quartet
Quvenzhané Wallis … Beasts of the Southern Wild

Yikes. Quite a weak year we're in for. I guess consensus is that Lawrence is leading in Silver Linings Playbook. I had her down for Support as well as Leading for The Hunger Games. Jacques Audiard's films have never crossed over to the mainstream. I suppose it's possible she'll get in for Rust and Bone if she picks up enough critic's awards and with a field like this that's certainly possible. Right now, I have Naomi Watts in for The Impossible in her stead. I have no doubt that Dustin Hoffman's feature film directorial debut at 75 will be a darling topic of conversation on the talk show circuit. Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha?

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Robert De Niro … Silver Linings Playbook
* Leonardo DiCaprio … Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman … The Master
Matthew McConaughey … Magic Mike
David Strathairn … Lincoln

I'm tempted to just put in "Someone From Lincoln That I Couldn't Know About Just Yet." Because honestly, who the fuck knows if it's Joseph Gordon-Levitt or Tommy Lee Jones? Or Strathairn? Advanced buzz has DiCaprio as the front-runner for Django Unchained. It certainly looks like a ridiculous QT character, and that might be enough for the actor's [presumably] fourth nomination. Hoffman looks like a rock solid bet. De Niro? People seem to like him in Silver Linings Playbook. No idea if his part is big enough or showy enough, but lucidity might just be the trick. I'm a little dubious on McConaughey's chances for Magic Mike just because it's Magic Mike. Both he and Strathairn could be subbbed out for Hal Holbrook for Promised Land or William H. Macy for The Sessions or Russell Crowe for Les Miserables.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams … The Master
Samantha Barks … Les Misérables
Helena Bonham Carter … Great Expectations
* Anne Hathaway … Les Misérables
Helen Hunt … The Sessions

Is it just me or does saying "Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables" strike anyone as one of those candidates that people speak about without really thinking about whether or not she'll really stand-out? Forgive me but is Fantine in that much of the play? It's certainly possible that Anne Hathaway could get in. I mean after all, she's playing Amanda Seyfried's mother. That's...a stretch. Samantha Barks might be a better bet, but again: how much of a heavy this proves with actors remains to be seen. Amy Adams has seemingly gotten a solid if muted reception for her performance compared to the boys, but being in The Master might just be enough. Helen Hunt looks like a good bet. Before I can predict Sally Field for Lincoln I have to get over the fact that Sally Field was actually cast in Lincoln.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables
Lincoln
* Silver Linings Playbook

Looks good to me.

bizarre wrote on Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:38 am
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Django Unchained
Frances Ha
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
* The Sessions

Hrm. I'd wager The Master is a better bet than The Sessions if only because (if it happens) this will be Paul Thomas Anderson's fourth writing nomination and I'm not expecting The Sessions to be that much of a heavy. I'd guess Amour and the Impossible over Django Unchained (for now) and Frances Ha.

[Big Magilla]

Great Expectations is still in limbo. It doesn't have a U.S. distributer yet. Otherwise looks reasonable.

[bizarre]

It begins with TIFF.

BEST PICTURE:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
* Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
The Impossible
The Master

BEST DIRECTOR:
* Paul Thomas Anderson … The Master
Juan Antonio Bayona … The Impossible
Tom Hooper … Les Misérables
Ang Lee … Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin … Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper … Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis … Lincoln
* John Hawkes … The Sessions
Hugh Jackman … Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix … The Master

BEST ACTRESS:
Marion Cotillard … Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley … Anna Karenina
* Jennifer Lawrence … Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith … Quartet
Quvenzhané Wallis … Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Robert De Niro … Silver Linings Playbook
* Leonardo DiCaprio … Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman … The Master
Matthew McConaughey … Magic Mike
David Strathairn … Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams … The Master
Samantha Barks … Les Misérables
Helena Bonham Carter … Great Expectations
* Anne Hathaway … Les Misérables
Helen Hunt … The Sessions

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables
Lincoln
* Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Django Unchained
Frances Ha
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
* The Sessions

BEST ART DIRECTION:
* Anna Karenina
Great Expectations
Les Misérables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
* The Master

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
* Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Mirror Mirror
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST FILM EDITING:
Argo
Les Misérables
The Dark Knight Rises
The Impossible
* The Master

BEST MAKEUP:
* Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Lincoln
The Impossible
* The Master

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Looper
Prometheus
The Avengers
* The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Les Misérables
The Avengers
* The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Cloud Atlas
* Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Impossible


Doc, Animated, Foreign, Song and Shorts can wait.