Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[Precious Doll]

The other three acting categories are too tough to call. I'm seeing a tough three way race for Best Actor between Hawkes, Trintignant and Jackman; a toss-up between Lawrence, Riva and Helen Mirren for Best Actress.

I'm pretty close to agreement there but with a two way race between Hawkes & Trintignant for Actor and Lawrence & Riva for Actress.

And at this point I think it will be Hawkes & Riva as the winners. Maybe this is just my wishful thinking and to be honest my bias.

[rudeboy]

Yes, scary how shallow the choices are out there this year.

In some categories certainly, but this does look like it could be the first time since the field expanded where the most likely best picture candidates are all very widely liked, by critics at least. I haven't had the chance to see anything with a shot yet - Moonrise Kingdom aside - but Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, The Sessions, Amour, Argo, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Flight all have a lot of support. Not to mention the as yet unseen Les Miserables, The Hobbit, Promised Land, Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty. There should be something to please everyone this year, I hope - although some of the aforementioned are clearly going to be crowded out.

No room for a Blind Side or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close this year, it would seem.

Gun to head now I'd go for a smaller total than last year - with so many widely hailed contenders it seems that only a handful would pull in the required votes. My first predictions:

Best Picture

Argo
Flight
Les Miserables (although the most recent trailer underwhelmed me massively)
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director

Ben Affleck - Argo
Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Best Actress

Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Maggie Smith - Quartet

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
John Goodman - Flight
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Sally Field - Lincoln
Ann Hathaway - Les Miserables
Scarlett Johanssen - Hitchcock
Frances McDormand, Promised Land

Best Original Screenplay

Amour
Flight
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Cinematography

Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty

[Big Magilla]

Things change daily. The huzzahs for DiCaprio seem to have been based on the trailer in which he is amusing at best. Those who've seen the film say Samuel L. Jackson is the one who steals the film.

The actor's branch is said to be immune to the idea of nominating a six year-old girl who still doesn't have a SAG card and is ineligible for a SAG nomination which makes Wallis' chances of becoming the youngest ever Best Actress nominee more and more unlikely. The new trailers for Les Miserables, particularly the international one, are really good. Hathaway's role may be small but she is still the highlight of every trailer - I think she'll be tough to beat even for legends like Sally Field and Maggie Smith.

At this point it looks like Les Mis for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and a slew of other awards. The other three acting categories are too tough to call. I'm seeing a tough three way race for Best Actor between Hawkes, Trintignant and Jackman; a toss-up between Lawrence, Riva and Helen Mirren for Best Actress and no idea about Supporting Actor. Alan Arkin or Tommy Lee Jones if they hadn't already won. Maybe Jackson or someone else who surfaces at the last minute.

[Reza]

Wishful thinking: The Oscars go to Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva.

Yes, scary how shallow the choices are out there this year.

[bizarre]

Winner predictions - Hawkes/Lawrence/DiCaprio/Hathaway

Can't believe how shallow the pools of selection appear to be this year. And there's nothing really on the horizon that could add any flavour.

[bizarre]

I haven't been following this season as closely as I have past ones.

BEST ACTOR:
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
IN THE RUNNING: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook, Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour, Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock
LONG SHOTS: Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson, Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained

BEST ACTRESS:
Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone
Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
IN THE RUNNING: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour, Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty, Meryl Streep - Hope Springs, Maggie Smith - Quartet
LONG SHOTS: Mary Elizabeth Winstead - Smashed, Naomi Watts - The Impossible, Elizabeth Olsen - Thérèse Raquin (release date?), Judi Dench - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Greta Gerwig - Frances Ha

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
IN THE RUNNING: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln, Russell Crowe - Les Misérables
LONG SHOTS: Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild, John Goodman - Flight, Billy Connolly - Quartet, Matthew Macfadyen - Anna Karenina, Jude Law - Anna Karenina, Ewan McGregor - The Impossible, William H. Macy - The Sessions

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams - The Master
Samantha Barks - Les Misérables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
IN THE RUNNING: Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Amanda Seyfried - Les Misérables
LONG SHOTS: Pauline Collins - Quartet, Kerry Washington - Django Unchained, Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson, Jessica Lange - Thérèse Raquin (release date?), Helena Bonham Carter - Great Expectations

[Reza]

Rooting for a nomination as best supporting actor for Javier Bardem for Skyfall.

Wishful thinking.

Although it would be nice to see Roger Deakins' name on the list.

[nightwingnova]

Rooting for a nomination as best supporting actor for Javier Bardem for Skyfall.

[Big Magilla]

Entertainment Weekly's predictions from their Holiday Movie Preview issue:

Best Picture
Front-runners: Argo, Life of Pi; Lincoln; Les Miserables; Silver Linings Playbook
Other contenders: Beasts of the Southern Wild; The Impossible; The Master; The Sessions; Zero Dark Thirty
Long shots: Anna Karenina; Amour; Django Unchaned; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Moonrise Kingdom

Best Actor
Front-runners: Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln; John Hawkes - The Sessions; Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Other contenders: Ben Affleck - Argo; Bradely Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook; Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock; Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Long shots: Jack Black - Bernie; Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained; Richard Gere - Arbitrage; Jake Gyllenhaal - End of Watch; Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

Best Actress
Front-runers: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook; Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Other ontenders: Marion Cottilard - Rust & Bone; Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina; Helen Mirren - Hitchcock; Quevenzhanie Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild; Mary Elizabeth Winstead - Smashed
Long shots: Emayatsy Corinealdi - Middle of Nowhere; Emmauelle Riva - Amour; Maggie Smith - Quartet; Barbra Streisand - The Guilt Trip; Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea

Best Supporting Actor
Front-runners: Alan Arkin, Argo; Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master; Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Other contenders: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook; John Goodman - Argo; Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchaned; Ewan McGregor - The Impossible; Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Long shots: Russell Crowe - Les Miserables; Dwight Henry - Bests of the Southern Wild; Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike; Ezra Miller - The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Supporting Actress
Front-runners: Sally Field - Lincoln; Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables; Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Other contenders: Amy Adams - The Master; Samantha Barks - Les Miserables; Amanda Seyfried - Les Miserables; Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Long shots: Blythe Danner - Hello I Must Be Going; Rosemarie DeWitt - Your Sister's Sister; Ann Dowd - Compliance; Scarlett Johansson - Hitchcock; Emma Watson - The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Director
Front-runners: Ben Affleck - Argo; Ang Lee - Life of Pi; Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Other contedners: Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master; Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty; Tom Hooper - Les Miserables; David O.Russell - Silver Linings Playbook; Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Long shots: Wes Anderson - Moonrise Kingdom; J.A. Bayona - The Impossible; Ava DuVernay - Middle of Nowhere; Ben Lewin - The Sessions; Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

[ITALIANO]

I'm not getting all the predicitons for Emmanuelle Riva for Best Actress without Jean-Louis Trintignant receiving a corresponding nod for Best Actor

It happens so often - and with foreign actors even more often. Why Marcello Mastroianni and not Sophia Loren? Why Marie-Christine Barrault and not Victor Lanoux? Why - it could happen this year - Marion Cotillard and not Matthias Schoenaerts? It's unfair but it's a "dura lex" of the Oscars - and let's face it, foreign actors, even great foreign actors, are basically fillers. Trintignant, unfortunately, has no chance - this is a fact; Riva's role, while slightly shorter, is certainly showier, and most importantly, it seems there aren't too many Best Actresses from English-language movies this year. However, it will probably change in the next two months, and after all Riva sadly is probably only slightly more famous today in America than, say, Ida Kaminska was in 1965 (by the way, HER co-star also wasn't nominated). And I have seen Amour - excellent as they are, I don't think actors from this movie will be nominated.

[bizarre]

Lodge is great, his predictions less so - can't say I like Tapley much at all but in any case his predictions are rarely updated and bullishly stick to far-gone contenders long after they've fallen off the radar. The prognosticator with the best track record is probably Nathaniel Rodgers at The Film Experience.

[mlrg]

The only prognosticators I tend to take seriously before the critics awards start happening are Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge at In Contention. They seem to have a better read of the actual voters than Gold Derby, Hollywood Eelsehere and the others without the politics.

For Best Actor they are predicting Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Hopkins, Phoenix and Washington. They're missing Jackman and Tringnant who I would substitie for Phoneix and either Washington or Hopkins. I don't think Bradley Cooper has a ghost of a chance breaking into the top five, but then I haven't seen his film.

They've just updated their predictions and bumped Hokkins replacing him with Bradley Cooper. They also bumped Hithcock from their best picture prediction list.

Taking into account the opening weekend box office performance of Flight, I think Washington just secured his nomination.

[Big Magilla]

The only prognosticators I tend to take seriously before the critics awards start happening are Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge at In Contention. They seem to have a better read of the actual voters than Gold Derby, Hollywood Eelsehere and the others without the politics.

Right now they re predicitng just seven nominees for Best Picture - Argo; Amour; Hitchcock; Les Miserables; Life of Pi; Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. I'd add Zero Dark Thirty and throw in Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Hobbit, although the latter may be too light on plot for the Academy.

For Best Director, they've got Haneke, Affleck, Hooper, Lee and Spielberg. They haven't jumped on the Russell bandwagon yet, but that could change.

For Best Actor they are predicting Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Hopkins, Phoenix and Washington. They're missing Jackman and Tringnant who I would substitie for Phoneix and either Washington or Hopkins. I don't think Bradley Cooper has a ghost of a chance breaking into the top five, but then I haven't seen his film.

The consensus on Hitchcock is not that it is My Week with Marilyn redux, but a surprisingly good take on the Hitchcocks, both Alfred and Alma. They say that Hopkins, despite what you see in the teasers, really nails Hitchcock in a way he never even tried with Nixon. Despite all the Scarlett Johanssen as Janet Leigh hype, it's actually Jessica Biel as Vera Miles, whose grandson was a consultant on the film, who has the stronger arc.

Their Best Actress picks are Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Riva and Wallis. Chastain is new, replacing Naomi Watts in that sunami disaster movie that is apparently rendered meaningless by our own superstorm Sandy. Before that they were championing Keira Knightly for Anna Karenina. Why they haven't embraced Mirren yet, I don't know given they've already jumped on Hitchcock for Best Picture and the more crowded Best Actor field.

For Supporting Actor they like Arkin, DeNiro, DiCaprio, Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln. The only one I see as a question mark is Dicaprio.I'm thinking maybe Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild instead.

For supporting actress, the only category they haven't updated in a while, they've got Amy Adams, Sally Field, Hathaway, Hunt and yes, Maggie Smith.

Let's remember that The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was the only film released in the first ten months of the year that appealed to the older demographic. I dare say that most of Hollywood did not wait for the screener to arrive to see the film. Maggie Smith is relevant again thanks to Downton Abbey for which she's just won her second Emmy in succession. Actors love her. And she's the only one in the running thus far who is not the dominant female character in her film. It's a genuine supporting turn.

[Sonic Youth]

It's a wiki-film

Is this a newly common phrase, or did you just make it up? It's brilliant.

[Mister Tee]

I agree with your reasoning on Riva/Trintingnant. He has more career points to nail the veteran/foreign nod Uri so hates, but the competition for best actor is fierce, where best actress is at the moment scrounging for candidates. Think Paul Dooley/Barbara Barrie, but in French.

I think the fate of Phoenix/PTAnderson nominations might rest with critics. To date, the film seems to me the most enthusiastically reviewed of the year, and thus a solid candidate to win some combination of NY/National/LA...which isn't the slam dunk toward a nomination it used to be, but still counts.

I don't buy the Hugh Jackman/Richard Gere analogy. Gere's role in Chicago was never seen as a particularly dominant one; it was the ladies' show/movie. Jean Valjean is the clear central role in Les Miz, and if the movie's going to be the big Oscar sweeper people are imagining, it's hard to conceive of its being passed over for leading actor.