Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Yes, certainly Tinker Tailor for Adapted Screenplay (I haven't yet seen The Descendents but will watch it tonight).

The Artist for Best Picture. Director and Original Screenplay; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy for Adapted Screenplay.

Big Magilla wrote:And I'm hoping those two over-rated bores cancel each other out and allow the Oscar to go to Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

That would be wonderful! My personal preference would be TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY for Adapted Screenplay, THE TREE OF LIFE for Director and Best Picture, and BEGINNERS for Original Screenplay (although I have not seen A SEPARATION, which many folks say deserves to win this category).

I just really disliked THE DESCENDANTS and think MONEYBALL is the only film which can actually stop it from winning.

What are your personal picks for those 4 categories Big Magilla?

And I'm hoping those two over-rated bores cancel each other out and allow the Oscar to go to Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

Sonic Youth wrote:With the exception of Plummer for Beginners, Descendants for Ad. Screenplay, and A Seperation for Best FL Film, I'm not 100% sure of anything yet.

I am hoping for a repeat of the UP IN THE AIR shut-out so MONEYBALL can win Adapted Screenplay.

I'm going to addendum my previous comment. Apparently, my archived precursor data on the site is missing the BAFTA nominations. Looking them up, I notice that Munich's showing at BAFTA was the foreshadowing of its Oscar appearance (if DGA hadn't already been enough clue). So, it not showing up at BAFTA IS a bad sign for the film. I'm hoping this means a film like Drive can crack the Best Picture field. It would be nice to have something worthy celebrating about this year's nominees.

I hate to bring this up, Sonic, but Munich only received five precursor awards going into the 2005 awards season. best Picture from DC and KC critics, Director from both and Adapted Screenplay from the KC Critics.

As for nominations, Munich received a Motion Picture Sound Editors nod, an ACE nod, a few nominations from the OFCS and the OFTA, a director nomination from Chicago, director and screenplay nominations from the globes and nominations from the BFCA. So far, other than the DGA snub and missing the GG nod for director, War Horse has picked up mostly the same mentions. I wouldn't count it out entirely, but if there's anything that limits its chances it's Spielberg's exclusion from the DGA and the Golden Globes.

And let me specify. I'm not predicting it for much of anything at this point, I haven't seen it and I have no rooting interest in the film. Just trying to put it in perspective that we cannot count it out until the nominations are announced.

Oh, and not only has War Horse not managed an "important" BAFTA nomination, it has fallen off the radar by so much that no one here has even bothered to mention it. Bye, Goliath!

Hmm... I think Bejo's supporting. I know it doesn't feel right to not have a leading lady in such a glamorous movie as The Artist, but this is Dujardin's story. You see his character arc firsthand, but you see Bejo's debelopment mostly through his perspective (via trade magazine articles and overheard meetings at restaurants, etc).

Hugo's missing Best Picture nom may not mean anything other than it came in at a very close 6th, Tinker Tailor's strong showing here may just mean that the film has been out in British cinemas since September. Who knows? It's such a crazy race that every new development is a death knell or a ressurection.

And despite the rumblings we'll hear over the next several months, they weren't exactly chomping at the bit to give Scorsese an Oscar. They had plenty of opportunity, so I don't think he's going to beat Michel Hazanavicius. Never bet on a split vote...but DGA might change that.

The DGA might very well change everything. I remember last year when it stopped The Social Network and Fincher dead in their tracks, although most people (including myself) refused to believe it for the latter. My greatest worry is that The Descendants (my designated "Oscar contender I hate" for this year) is far more loved that we realize. If it is, that's bad news for the Academy's posterity and indeed for all mankind, but potentially good news for Scorsese because a Descendents/Scorsese split vote is very possible. But only if The Artist hasn't truly taken hold. And although I won't bet on it until the DGA winner is announced*, I think it will. And The Artist isn't the sort of movie that splits the Picture/Director vote.

*With the exception of Plummer for Beginners, Descendants for Ad. Screenplay, and A Seperation for Best FL Film, I'm not 100% sure of anything yet.

flipp525 wrote:I can't wait to see what she does with Daisy Buchanan.)

Ditto.

Mister Tee wrote:I'm with BJ: of what I've seen, Carey Mulligan's is the strongest supporting female performance of the year. I can't believe she's had so little support (or that the one group to slate her was the dread Broadcasters).

I was really not expecting Carey Mulligan to give that kind of performance, but I thought her creation of "Sissy" was sublime work in Shame. That haunting, melancholy arrangement of "New York, New York" was also such a wonderful encapsulation of the siblings' whole relationship and even hinted toward their backstory. Hers' is easily one of the best supporting performances of the year. In a more perfect world, both she and Fassbender would win. (And I'm one of those who thought she was criminally ignored last year for her devastating turn in Never Let Me Go. I can't wait to see what she does with Daisy Buchanan.)

That said, I've been a champion of Octavia Spencer since her pitch-perfect blink-or-you'll-miss-it cameo in Being John Malkovich, so I'm simply thrilled for her this year.

OscarGuy wrote:As for Bejo. When I first saw her name on the lead actress longlist, I wondered if perhaps the Academy would do the same thing. But with the Academy, they aren't likely to nominate her at all if she's in lead, so they may stick with supporting.

BAFTA categorized Steinfeld honestly last year; we see how much impact THAT had on the Academy.

I'm with BJ: of what I've seen, Carey Mulligan's is the strongest supporting female performance of the year. I can't believe she's had so little support (or that the one group to slate her was the dread Broadcasters).

Mulligan is marvelous in Shame. Too bad she won't get nominated for it.

As for Bejo. When I first saw her name on the lead actress longlist, I wondered if perhaps the Academy would do the same thing. But with the Academy, they aren't likely to nominate her at all if she's in lead, so they may stick with supporting.

I love that when Carey Mulligan finally does get nominated for something, it's for a mostly unchallenging performance rather than the tremendous one that should be showing up everywhere.

That said, thank god SOMEBODY saw through this completely inexplicable Bérénice Bejo supporting nonsense.

Reza wrote:

anonymous1980 wrote:I think Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy's very strong showing here bodes well for Gary Oldman who many Oscar pundits already declared dead. I don't know if this means it will get in Best Picture, but Actor and Adapted Screenplay are well-within reach now.

What an amazing film !! Oldman so deserves to be nominated.

Much like Mia Farrow, I think Gary Oldman will never be nominated for an Oscar. I would love to be wrong (about both), but some folks the Academy just does not like. Oldman and Farrow have given several Oscar worthy performances, but have just been rejected over and over again. I heard Oldman's conservative politics might be the possible reason for Hollywood's dislike of him (though the opposite should then be true about Farrow).

Oldman gave an amazing performance in an amazing movie. I still hold out hope TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY will receive an Adapted Screenplay nomination and a Best Picture nomination (replacing THE IDES OF MARCH or BRIDESMAIDS), while Cinematography, Score, Sound, Set, and even Editing are longshots but possible. Oldman though seems out of luck.