ASC Nominees

[Sabin]

Yeah, I was off-base there.

They just didn't like his work in War Horse as much as the other films. And honestly, I can see that. So much of the cinematography in the film is a seemingly conscious throwback to other films, and I can see the style of the film getting on peoples' nerves as I do believe we will find out on Oscar morning. It's also worth noting that for all his three American Society of Cinematographer's Nominations, Janusz has yet to win. His work on Schindler's List lost to Conrad Hall's lensing for Searching for Bobby Fisher, his work on Amistad lost to Russell Carpenter's for Titanic, the ASC chose John Toll's vision of war for The Thin Red Line over Spielberg and Janusz's, and Robert Elswitt for There Will Be Blood won in an especially tight field of Atonement, The Assassination of Jesse James..., No Country for Old Men, and one of Janusz's few non-Spielberg projects The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Two Oscars, no ASC win. From what I've heard in the Guild, there is some very faint prejudice against him as well because Spielberg chooses all of the lenses in every shot.

[Sonic Youth]

I just read that Janusz Kaminski might not have been eligible, because he apparently left the Society at some point. Is this the case? If it is, he is well-positioned to get the nomination from the Academy anyway.

It's not the case. As I've read elsewhere, neither Guillaume Shiffman nor Hoyte van Hoytema are members, and Kaminski was nominated at least once after he left the Society.

[OscarGuy]

Out of spite, maybe, but since they nominate non-members for awards, his leaving the society did not make him ineligible.

[criddic3]

Of course, I was surprised to learn that Janusz Kaminski has never won the ASC trophy. He seems like such an obvious choice for them.

For many years this Guild was extremely nationalistic. While a slew of foreign-born cinematographers were winning Oscars (Storaro, Almendros, Zsigmond, Menges, Nykvist), this Guild went with Haskell Wexler, Caleb Deschanel, Roger Deakins, Conrad Hall multiple times -- often for films otherwise excluded from award consideration, like Blaze or The Patriot. Kaminski's Schindler's List year, the Guild went with Searching for Bobby Fischer.

In recent years, however, they've switched m.o.'s -- going for the more obvious Oscar choices (like the English Patient or Titanic), and the occasional foreign-born. Kaminski had the misfortune of doing his most famous work during the earlier period.

I just read that Janusz Kaminski might not have been eligible, because he apparently left the Society at some point. Is this the case? If it is, he is well-positioned to get the nomination from the Academy anyway.

[nightwingnova]

My choice among the five: Hugo.

Of all films, I would have chosen Melancholia.

[Reza]

or, more possibly, Michel Hazanavicius might be revealed as the secret new leader of Al Qaeda

I only wish that were true. It would be such a relief to have those bozos in ''silent'' mode.

[ITALIANO]

But it's possible, as you suggest, The Artist is the Mitt Romney of the pack -- not seeming to excite at the standard desired level, but competing against a group so unthinkable that a win happens by default. I'm willing to play out the season to see if that indeed happens.

Yes. If the Academy - like other groups, at least in Europe, sometimes do - had the possibility of choosing "no award" in some categories if no candidate deserves it, I agree with you that The Artist could probably end up Oscar-less. But they HAVE to pick one movie, and right now, objectively, there's no other possible movie - this is clear. Tomorrow, of course, things might change - Midnight in Paris might win both the Golden Globe and the SAG Ensemble Award, for example, or, more possibly, Michel Hazanavicius might be revealed as the secret new leader of Al Qaeda - and of course we'll see things under a new light. But right now, all the elements we have keep saying to us that The Artist will win the Best Picture Oscar in February, and one has to be blind not to see this.

[Mister Tee]

My prediction isn't based only on the Guilds. As I said before, it's also - mostly - based on the lack of alternatives, though I admit that I haven't seen most of the other possible nominees. But honestly, which other movie this year can be a possible Best Picture winner? The Hurt Locker, at least, had Avatar. Even Titanic had L.A. Confidential. What's the anti-The Artist?

In a decade where Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men and The Hurt Locker have been winners, I'm no longer certain I can recognize a best picture winner when I see it. I'd have bet against all those at some point in the process. Chicago, Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire are the only films from that period I've felt confident about through their entire Oscar seasons (and Chicago, of course, failed to take the traditional best director go-with).

I'm also at a disavantage, having not yet seen The Artist or The Descendants (or Dragon Tattoo, not to mention Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, We Need to Talk About Kevin, War Horse, A Separation). I can only go by vibe and, relatedly, commercial performance. The vibe I get about The Artist is, people like it, but the word "minor" seems to come up quite frequently, and I'm not sure a film with that tag can hold onto front-runner status all the way to the end. And the (relatively) disappointing grosses back up that sense.

But it's possible, as you suggest, The Artist is the Mitt Romney of the pack -- not seeming to excite at the standard desired level, but competing against a group so unthinkable that a win happens by default. I'm willing to play out the season to see if that indeed happens.

[Sabin]

Um.

[ITALIANO]

Italiano would no doubt point to The Artist showing up yet again. But let's also note that Hugo has shown up in all the same spots and more (visual effects & writers guild -- though The Artist was ineligible there), and that Dragon Tattoo has figured in virtually all Guild voting, as well.

I love this man!

So now you think that Hugo and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (not The Descendants anymore?) have more chances of winning Best Picture than The Artist...

No, I believe I've said from the beginning that I thought the Artist was the most likely winner. I'm simply saying, if you're using frequency of Guild precursors to back the premise, it'd only be honest to note that other films have much the same backing. (I didn't think Hugo was any sure thing under make-up or special effects, either)

My prediction isn't based only on the Guilds. As I said before, it's also - mostly - based on the lack of alternatives, though I admit that I haven't seen most of the other possible nominees. But honestly, which other movie this year can be a possible Best Picture winner? The Hurt Locker, at least, had Avatar. Even Titanic had L.A. Confidential. What's the anti-The Artist?

[Sabin]

Last year, Deakins and Pfister were the only previous nominees. The year prior, Bebe and Richardson were the only previous nominees. In 2008, there were three previous nominees, and in 2007 there were four previous nominees. Unless I'm mistaken, you have to go back to 1996 to find a lineup where there were only previous nominees.

John Seale, ASC, ACS – The English Patient
Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC – Fargo
Caleb Deschanel, ASC – Fly Away Home
Darius Khondji, AFC – Evita
Chris Menges, BSC – Michael Collins
Vilmos Zsigmond, ASC – The Ghost and the Darkness

[Mister Tee]

Italiano would no doubt point to The Artist showing up yet again. But let's also note that Hugo has shown up in all the same spots and more (visual effects & writers guild -- though The Artist was ineligible there), and that Dragon Tattoo has figured in virtually all Guild voting, as well.

I love this man!

So now you think that Hugo and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (not The Descendants anymore?) have more chances of winning Best Picture than The Artist...

No, I believe I've said from the beginning that I thought the Artist was the most likely winner. I'm simply saying, if you're using frequency of Guild precursors to back the premise, it'd only be honest to note that other films have much the same backing. (I didn't think Hugo was any sure thing under make-up or special effects, either)

[ITALIANO]

Italiano would no doubt point to The Artist showing up yet again. But let's also note that Hugo has shown up in all the same spots and more (visual effects & writers guild -- though The Artist was ineligible there), and that Dragon Tattoo has figured in virtually all Guild voting, as well.

I love this man!

So now you think that Hugo and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (not The Descendants anymore?) have more chances of winning Best Picture than The Artist...

I don't know. It's possible that all these nods are just the result of an oily marketing strategy on the unsuspecting American people, but I doubt it. I've seen the movie - it's really charming, I can understand why many can fall in love with it. It's "that" kind of movie, simply. Also, I expected it to be nominated here, so I don't think it's so important; but its make-up, for example, is a quite subtle job, so THAT inclusion made me think.

[Mister Tee]

Of course, I was surprised to learn that Janusz Kaminski has never won the ASC trophy. He seems like such an obvious choice for them.

For many years this Guild was extremely nationalistic. While a slew of foreign-born cinematographers were winning Oscars (Storaro, Almendros, Zsigmond, Menges, Nykvist), this Guild went with Haskell Wexler, Caleb Deschanel, Roger Deakins, Conrad Hall multiple times -- often for films otherwise excluded from award consideration, like Blaze or The Patriot. Kaminski's Schindler's List year, the Guild went with Searching for Bobby Fischer.

In recent years, however, they've switched m.o.'s -- going for the more obvious Oscar choices (like the English Patient or Titanic), and the occasional foreign-born. Kaminski had the misfortune of doing his most famous work during the earlier period.

I just dropped in quickly to post the nominees earlier, and didn't stop to comment. I, too, am thrilled by the Tinker Tailor mention. I could see the film amassing a decent screenplay/art direction/cinematography/score below the line haul, which might be enough to float it into best picture contention. Techs and Brits unite!

Italiano would no doubt point to The Artist showing up yet again. But let's also note that Hugo has shown up in all the same spots and more (visual effects & writers guild -- though The Artist was ineligible there), and that Dragon Tattoo has figured in virtually all Guild voting, as well.

[rolotomasi99]

So happy for TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY. However, there is no way WAR HORSE and more specifically Janusz Kaminski is not nominated by the Academy. They love him!

THE TREE OF LIFE received its first and probably only Guild nomination. I still am hopeful it can make it into B.P. and a Director nomination.

While I think TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY may not receive a Cinematography nomination from the Academy, I am beginning to think it might make it into B.P. and a Screenplay nomination.