WGA Nominations

[OscarGuy]

I am thinking of The Help as this year's Precious. A film that no one would consider a masterpiece, but is well liked enough by the Oprah-ites that it will pull off several key nods including Adapted Screenplay, Director and Editing.

[Reza]

I think A Separation is going to get in. It's a very strong draw in Los Angeles right now, and I think it's going to get in.

If it happens - and it won't be easy - I'll look at the Academy with new respect. I know that this movie has been universally praised, and I'm glad to learn that Americans like it, too, but it doesn't happen often that a "little" movie from a distant - and in some ways controversial - country in Asia ends up among the nominees in such an important Oscar category. That cliched, Jack Valenti-style phrase, "movies speak a universal language", in its deepest meaning doesn't actually apply to THAT many movies today - but it definitely applies to A Separation.

Based on it's extremely positive (I'm actually very surprised) response in America, this film may snare two other important nods - Best Picture and Director for Farhadi - as well.

[ITALIANO]

I think A Separation is going to get in. It's a very strong draw in Los Angeles right now, and I think it's going to get in.

If it happens - and it won't be easy - I'll look at the Academy with new respect. I know that this movie has been universally praised, and I'm glad to learn that Americans like it, too, but it doesn't happen often that a "little" movie from a distant - and in some ways controversial - country in Asia ends up among the nominees in such an important Oscar category. That cliched, Jack Valenti-style phrase, "movies speak a universal language", in its deepest meaning doesn't actually apply to THAT many movies today - but it definitely applies to A Separation.

[rolotomasi99]

Guild after Guild has passed on Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I just don't think it's going to happen.

We can only hope.

[Sabin]

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Like in 2009 where Inglourious Basterds was ruled ineligible for a nomination, it's going to be a coin flip between The Artist and Midnight in Paris. Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win, and Young Adult are all a bit shaky. For whatever reason, Bridesmaids is a more revered than Apatow's other productions and so I see that extending to Wiig. Tom McCarthy has written and directed three features and all three have been WGA nominees. His previous two features haven't received Oscar nominations, but he did as a co-writer on Up. Win Win plays great on DVD, it has a solid voice, and I think it'll end up with a nomination. That leaves 50/50 and Young Adult.

I think A Separation is going to get in. It's a very strong draw in Los Angeles right now, and I think it's going to get in. Beginners, The Tree of Life, Margin Call, and Martha Marcy May Marlene have outside chances. I'm going to bet on 50/50. Which has a lot in common with another high profile screenwriting snub: 500 Days of Summer. Not just that it has Joseph Gordon-Levitt in it, but that it's a youth-skewing Golden Globe nominee. Diablo Cody is in the club because of her previous win, but I think 50/50 will likely get in because it has a wider appeal. It even has two token old people dying of cancer.

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Tom McCarthy, Win Win
Will Reiser, 50/50


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Not really surprises, more like clarifications. Guild after Guild has passed on Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I just don't think it's going to happen.

Clooney/Heslov/Willimon's adaptation of The Ides of March was passed over for John Logan's adaptation of Hugo. And War Horses' scribes were passed over for Steve Zaillian in his second nomination of the morning for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Both films have been on a small role recently with their Producer's Guild of America nominations, and especially The Ides of March's healthy four Golden Globe take. This is a pretty wide open race. The Descendants, Moneyball, and The Help are all good bets. And then it seems like the last two spots are between The Ides of March, War Horse, Hugo, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and I suppose Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. I'm not sold on Hugo for a writing nomination. John Logan is a two time Oscar nominee and after of this morning a two time WGA nominee, so he's definitely in the club already. Basically, I just don't buy that Hugo is going to receive something like 11 or 12 nominations. Something has to fall. I think it will be for its writing. Same for War Horse. I just don't see writers being terribly impressed at the storytelling of the film. I could end up being wrong, but I just don't see it happening.

That leaves The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Ides of March. The latter is full of good monologues and political subject matter. It's "writer-ly". It's probably in. Barring an Eric Roth upset, that leaves Steve Zaillian whose film seems to be picking up a little steam both in terms of awards and a little more money than people thought. The sequel is still underway. It's the disposable nomination of the category.

Grant Heslov, George Clooney, and Brian Willimon, The Ides of March
Alexander Payne, and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian, Moneyball
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steve Zaillian, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

[Mister Tee]

Completely agree that Midnight in Paris is the only one on the original side sure to repeat. And Woody, for reasons both discerning and sentimental, would seem a sure bet for another WGA win. (Will it be his 5th? I count Annie Hall, Hannah, Broadway Danny Rose and Crimes and Misdemeanors)

Also agree that Tinker Tailor is the strongest possible addition to the adapted side, but I have a nagging sense Drive could appeal to the hipster caucus. And I'm not convinced The Help or Hugo are dead solid certain.

What if War Horse doesn't make it at DGA? Is it still a sure thing for a best picture nod? I'd laugh loudly if the two most-blogger-touted projects of the year -- War Horse and Extremely Loud -- both fell out of the race.

[anonymous1980]

I think at least two of the 4 non-Midnight in Paris WGA-nominated Original Screenplays will not translate to Oscar. The Artist will obviously take out one and either Beginners and/or A Separation will take out at least one other.

In adapted, I doubt The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets in. I think if the writers don't go for War Horse, I think Drive or Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy will get in its spot.

[rolotomasi99]

To expand on Mister Tee's list of ineligible scripts:

Albert Nobbs
The Artist
A Separation
Beginners
Carnage
Drive
The Iron Lady
Jane Eyre
Like Crazy
Margin Call
Martha Marcy May Marlene
My Week with Marilyn
Rango
Shame
The Skin I Live In
Take Shelter
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

The WGA nominees could end up being very close, particularly adapted. Of the original scripts, the only one I would call a lock is MIDNIGHT IN PARIS. We could see a repeat of 2008 when only one film in original matched between WGA and the Oscars. THE ARIST is obviously in, but SHAME, MARGIN CALL, A SEPARATION and BEGINNERS could also show up.

I think THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO is the most vulnerable in adapted, but the only one I could see replacing it is TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY.

I am not at all surprised at WAR HORSE being snubbed. It is the definition of a director's film. There are not many examples, but ever so often a film is nominated for Best Picture with only a Director's nomination and a few technical noms (AVATAR being the most recent example). WAR HORSE being snubbed by the actors and writers does not mean it is not still a strong candidate for a Best Picture and Director nomination (along with several tech noms).

[Mister Tee]

For the record, of the following were ineligible: The Artist, Beginners, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Albert Nobbs, Drive, Margin Call, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Iron Lady and My Week with Marilyn (there may be more). There's every reason to believe original screenplay could be as much as 60-80% different at AMPAS, and adapted 40%.

Biggest omissions: War Horse (if it can't get a group that nominated both of James Cameron's epics, it's not likely to do well with the more discerning writers' branch) and The Ides of March, which is having a real stutter-step award season performance.

Biggest get: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which has shown up at the major guilds so far. DGA is very doubtful, but a best picture nod in the commercial slot is not out of the question. (To rebut FilmFan from yesterday: the grosses on the fim aren't "poor"; they're, like Sabin said, underperforming (given expectations)...but it'd still be one of the top-earning films in the awards mix.

I'm with BJ, that Bridesmaids has a bit more juice than previous WGA comedy contenders, but it still may miss the Oscar nod, where dramas are preferred. Writers in general -- whether WGA or the Oscars' writing branch -- have a long history of better/more idiosyncratic taste than the membership at large. But the WGA, with its far larger roster, includes alot of people who make their living writing things like Bridesmaids or Knocked Up, so they're more likely to single out what they perceive as the best of their genre. The AMPAS branch hasn't (at least so far) added that many such folk, so their taste runs more to indies or foreign films for those slots (say, Beginners, Margin Call or A Separation).

[The Original BJ]

Worth pointing out that in an era full of constant griping about how awards groups don't recognize comedies, the WGA Original Screenplay slate is full of them. Come Oscar time, at least one of them will be bumped off by The Artist...another comedy.

Bridesmaids was an obvious get here, which I'm not certain will translate to Oscar (40-Year-Old Virgin, Knocked Up, and The Hangover all placed here without going any further), but Bridesmaids' broader support (with SAG and PGA) might give it a little more energy, maybe enough for Oscar attention in this category.

Here's my easy verdict on why Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close isn't doing well: IT'S NOT THAT GOOD! The five adapted scripts WGA cited are far superior. I don't think it would be a major player no matter who was behind it.

War Horse's omission suggests to me that it's still kind of on the bubble with respect to major nods -- it could hang on, but I can't say I'd be shocked if it missed either.

[flipp525]

I know some screenplays were ineligible for different reasons, but I'm glad it opened up room for Young Adult to get cited. I predict Midnight in Paris and Moneyball to win from this group.

I agree barrybrooks. The structure of Cody's script is problematic at times, but when it's on, it's really fucking on. Hoping that Charlize tags along for the ride.

[Greg]

No nominations for Michel Hazavanicius for The Artist orTerrence Malick for The Tree Of Life. I would assume that Hazavanicius is not a WGA member; but, that Malick is.

[Barrybrooks2011]

I know some screenplays were ineligible for different reasons, but I'm glad it opened up room for Young Adult to get cited. I predict Midnight in Paris and Moneyball to win from this group.

[OscarGuy]

Let's start off with the fact that The Artist, A Separation, The Adventures of Tintin and Rango were ineligible (at least the last two were, but I'll bet the first two were also). Can we please close the book on Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close? It's been dead for awhile, but unless the DGA picks Daldry, it's chances are virtually nil. And I wonder if it has something to do with Scott Rudin as producer? Could his attention be so diverted that he hasn't had time to campaign? And if it were Harvey Weinstein who had ELIC, I'll bet anything it would be a bigger player right now. Rudin and Weinstein have a rivaly and this year just proves Weinstein's better at his "job".

[mlrg]

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50, Written by Will Reiser; Summit Entertainment

Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig; Universal Studios

Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen; Sony Pictures Classics

Win Win, Screenplay by Tom McCarthy; Story by Tom McCarthy & Joe Tiboni; Fox Searchlight

Young Adult, Written by Diablo Cody; Paramount Pictures

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash; Based on the novel by Kaui Hart Hemming; Fox Searchlight

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian; Based on the novel by Stieg Larsson, originally published by Norstedts; Columbia Pictures

The Help, Screenplay by Tate Taylor; Based on the novel by Kathryn Stockett; DreamWorks Pictures

Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan; Based on the book The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick; Paramount Pictures

Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin; Based on the book by Michael Lewis; Columbia Pictures