Oscar Predictions at Year End

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ITALIANO » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:42 pm

Sabin wrote:
Italiano wrote
Tate Taylor is Sabin's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Otherwise, his predictions are quite reasonable - except maybe for two of his Best Supporting Actors.

Supporting performers or actors specifically? I'd love to toss in Jonah Hill for Moneyball but after rewatching the film again last night, I'm just not sure the Academy will be that exceptional. Who else? Mortenson? Von Sydow? They're just as likely as Hammer.

I could absolutely be wrong about Taylor.



Despite his Golden Globe nomination, I have serious doubts about Nick Nolte's Oscar chances. And I also have doubts about Max Von Sydow's chances - though I must admit that his glorious past could get him in.

I agree with your Supporting Actresses, though Woodley's nod will depend on how much they REALLY like The Descendants.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:55 pm

Italiano wrote
Tate Taylor is Sabin's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Otherwise, his predictions are quite reasonable - except maybe for two of his Best Supporting Actors.

Supporting performers or actors specifically? I'd love to toss in Jonah Hill for Moneyball but after rewatching the film again last night, I'm just not sure the Academy will be that exceptional. Who else? Mortenson? Von Sydow? They're just as likely as Hammer.

I could absolutely be wrong about Taylor.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby bizarre » Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:15 pm

Leaving out the short film categories, which are always useless trying to predict.

BEST PICTURE:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Hugo
* The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
War Horse

BEST DIRECTOR:
Stephen Daldry ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
* Michel Hazanavicius ... The Artist
Terrence Malick ... The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne ... The Descendants
Martin Scorsese ... Hugo

BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney ... The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio ... J. Edgar
* Jean Dujardin ... The Artist
Brad Pitt ... Moneyball
Michael Shannon ... Take Shelter

BEST ACTRESS:
Glenn Close ... Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis ... The Help
Elizabeth Olsen ... Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep ... The Iron Lady
* Michelle Williams ... My Week with Marilyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Kenneth Branagh ... My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks ... Drive
Armie Hammer ... J. Edgar
Christopher Plummer ... Beginners
* Max von Sydow ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Bérénice Bejo ... The Artist
* Jessica Chastain ... Take Shelter
Janet McTeer ... Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer ... The Help
Shailene Woodley ... The Descendants

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Hugo
Moneyball
* The Descendants
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
50/50
A Separation
Midnight in Paris
Take Shelter
* The Artist

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Arthur Christmas
Chico & Rita
Rango
* The Adventures of Tintin
Wrinkles

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck
* Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
We Were Here

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
A Separation
Declaration of War
Footnote
* In Darkness
Where Do We Go Now?

BEST ART DIRECTION:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
* Hugo
The Artist
The Tree of Life
War Horse

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Drive
Hugo
The Artist
* The Tree of Life
War Horse

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
* The Artist
The Help

BEST FILM EDITING:
Drive
* Hugo
The Artist
The Tree of Life
War Horse

BEST MAKEUP:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
* J. Edgar
The Iron Lady

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Hugo
The Adventures of Tintin
* The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
* "Lay Your Head Down" ... Albert Nobbs
"Life's a Happy Song" ... The Muppets
"Man or Muppet?" ... The Muppets
"Star Spangled Man" ... Captain America: The First Avenger
"The Living Proof" ... The Help

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
* The Adventures of Tintin
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Adventures of Tintin
The Tree of Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
* War Horse

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
* Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
The Tree of Life
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ITALIANO » Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Tate Taylor is Sabin's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Otherwise, his predictions are quite reasonable - except maybe for two of his Best Supporting Actors.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:52 pm

I absolutely count Daldry out without any hesitation or second thoughts whatsoever. The Reader had Kate Winslet, whose stormed the precusor season with awards and rave reviews and a media blitz surrounding her. She was the tide that lifted The Reader's Best Picture/Director boats. Extremely Loud has nothing like this, nor will it from here on out. Maybe The Reader's Picture/Director nods were unexpected, but at least there was a reason for it. But they're not going to nominate Daldry for a fourth time because he was nominated three times before. And being nominated three times before is no reason to predict him or his film this time.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:38 pm

The Reader (which seems to have been retconned to having excellent reviews) wasn't exactly on anyone's radar for Best Picture. It might have had a little talk, but it really came on strong with the Academy. Stephen Daldry has managed Best Director nominations three times, only one of which seemed certain, so never count him out.

I haven't formulated mine...I've been so busy and every time I want to get to them, other updates at my site take precedent. I've been working on it, including listening to all the eligible songs (that I could find anyway) and there are some pure crapfests on that shortlist, btw.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:20 pm

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris

If Six: War Horse
If Seven: The Tree of Life
If Eight: Moneyball
If Nine: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
If Ten: The Ides of March

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Tate Taylor, The Help

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Tom McCarthy, Win Win

Best Adapted Screenplay
George Clooney, Grant Henslov and Brian Willimon, The Ides of March
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Eric Roth, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian, Moneyball
Tate Taylor, The Help

Best Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Howard Shore, Hugo
John Williams, War Horse

Best Cinematography
Jordan Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse
Emmanuel Lubeski, The Tree of Life
Robert Richardson, Hugo
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:44 pm

It could get 2 or 3 nods inlcuding Best Director and Supporting Actor. Let's not forget that two years ago, two films (A Serious Man and The Blind Side were nominated for Best Picture with only one other nomination.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ITALIANO » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:35 pm

Mister Tee wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:
Big Magilla wrote: As for Extrememly Loud it has passionate supporters despite the largely negative reviews and could well be the rare Best Pictured nominee without another nod.



Mmm... well, VERY rare I'd say. When was the last time that this happened?


I believe it's One Foot in Heaven, 1941. Such a Halley's Comet occurrence might have been an outside possibility in last year's field of ten, but this year's reduction probably reduces its hopes even further.



Exactly.

I mean, it's possible that this movie will get one or two nominations, but why must Best Picture be one of those?

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:24 pm

ITALIANO wrote:
Big Magilla wrote: As for Extrememly Loud it has passionate supporters despite the largely negative reviews and could well be the rare Best Pictured nominee without another nod.



Mmm... well, VERY rare I'd say. When was the last time that this happened?


I believe it's One Foot in Heaven, 1941. Such a Halley's Comet occurrence might have been an outside possibility in last year's field of ten, but this year's reduction probably reduces its hopes even further.

And, for the record, Box Office Mojo shows Extremely Loud with a $7000 per-screen on opening day, $4700 the next -- for 6 theatres (generally the biggest venues in LA & NY), that's godawful. (For comparison, Tinker Tailor had a $4300 average in 55 screens that second day)

Poorly reviewed flms that have made the best picture slate have generally been box-office smashes -- Green Mile, Seabiscuit, Blind Side. Extremely Loud is going to be more Lovely Bones-ish. And as far as that nursing home set, anonymous is right, they'll be invested in The Help and War Horse as well -- films that have been vastly more popular.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ITALIANO » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:10 pm

Big Magilla wrote: As for Extrememly Loud it has passionate supporters despite the largely negative reviews and could well be the rare Best Pictured nominee without another nod.



Mmm... well, VERY rare I'd say. When was the last time that this happened?

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:04 pm

I saw Midnight in Paris a week ago and I've already fogotten most of it. As for Bridesmaids , I still don't get it, but, yeah, if the film is going ot make it, then so is McCarthy. As for Extrememly Loud it has passionate supporters despite the largely negative reviews and could well be the rare Best Pictured nominee without another nod. Its per screen average of $19,000 isn't exactly chopped liver.

Michelel Williams is pretty close to a sure bet, but the dismal box office of My Week with Marilyn makes me wonder if she's really making that much of an impact.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:55 pm

Nah, he's not insane. It could totally happen.

I just wrote up my predictions twice and twice saw them deleted so I'll do them later, but Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close could still totally happen. Retirement homes.

Sure thing? Nah.

Observations...
Midnight in Paris is more of a sure thing than War Horse and IMO pretty much everything except The Artist. Audiences love, old people love it. There's really nothing in its way.
Michelle Williams isn't just a sure thing, but she could possibly be maneuvered in for a win. So could Kenneth Branagh.
I don't understand how Vanessa Redgrave can be considered a better bet for Corlionanus than Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs, or how Melissa McCarthy isn't even listed here.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:42 pm

Well, I see Sonic got in here ahead of me.

Truly, Magilla, your devotion to Extremely Loud is starting to border on stalker-ish. The film got close-to-poor reviews, its per-screen was unimpressive on day one and plummeted on day two. The only reason it remains on some people's lists at this point is the fact that it was placed so prominently in the year-long forecasts. Nothing in the response to the film suggests a best picture nominee -- let alone one spotted ahead of The Artist and the Descendants, or even Moneyball or Midnight in Paris, both more enthusiastically received in every quarter.

The film I think might be worth watching from now to nominations day is Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It was ignored by the 'early-nominating groups (Broadcast didn't even cite its screenplay), but it's turning out to be a far bigger audience draw than anticipated (honestly, more impressive than The Artist so far). This is why these nominate-in-mid-December groups can be so pernicious -- they made their picks in an atmosphere where The Artist was going to be audience-beloved, and Tinker Tailor was going to be too complicated for people to follow. It may turn out neither of those is quite true, and Academy voters -- with more real-world evidence to rebut the early narrative -- could favor the LeCarre to an unexpected degree.

Your actors' slate is closer to how I see it, though I'd say Michelle Williams is every but as certain as Davis/Streep, and your field isn't as broad as it should be -- Michael Shannon, Rooney Mara, Jonah Hill, Carey Mulligan and Melissa McCarthy aren't anything like sure bets, but they rate an appearance if you're trying to give a full picture.

On the whole, things remain gloriously open-ended. Like Italiano says, I wouldn't bet the rent money on anything but The Artist's score for a win, and even the nominations are utterly murky.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:24 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Best Picture

The sure bets:

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - yes, it, too, is manipulative, and the critics pretty much didn't care for it either, but it was among the last DVDs to be mailed to the membership before the ballots were sent out. It's sure to be watched and appreciated by enough of the membership to garner a nod for Best Picture even if it doesn't receive a ndo for anything else.



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