Oscar Predictions at Year End

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bizarre
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby bizarre » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:48 pm

Elizabeth Olsen didn't get a Globe or SAG nomination but I can still see her spoiling. Not that it means anything in terms of influence, but here's the breakdown of precursor Best Actress mentions (wins or nominations) for those actresses in contention (including minor precursors):

18 - Meryl Streep
17 - Michelle Williams
15 - Viola Davis
14 - Tilda Swinton
12 - Elizabeth Olsen
5 - Kirsten Dunst
5 - Charlize Theron
4 - Glenn Close
3 - Olivia Colman
2 - Rooney Mara
2 - Anna Paquin
1 - Felicity Jones
1 - Kristen Wiig

I didn't count 'Breakthrough...' mentions, but including those Elizabeth Olsen ties with Meryl Streep for overall awards mentions. This isn't going to get her a nomination on its own but it shows that there is definitely widespread support for her performance even if the major precursors never really gelled for her the way they did for Jennifer Lawrence last year. I can't see a lineup of all previous nominees/winners (this'd be the first time that had happened in any category since 1994) and I believe that Swinton and potentially Close are weaker than their major precursor tallies suggest. Olsen also has the BFCA and Satellite nods which keep her in the conversation (even if neither have a lot of influence on the nomination list - although a case could be made for the BFCA).

A bit disheartening to see that she's been taken off prediction polls entirely on some sites. I think she's still very much in contention.

My predictions:

Glenn Close / Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis / The Help
Elizabeth Olsen / Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep / The Iron Lady
* Michelle Williams / My Week with Marilyn
6. Tilda Swinton / We Need to Talk About Kevin
7. Charlize Theron / Young Adult
8. Rooney Mara / The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. Felicity Jones / Like Crazy
10. Kristen Wiig / Bridesmaids

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ksrymy » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:36 pm

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris

If Six: The Tree of Life
If Seven: Moneyball
If Eight: A Separation
If Nine: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
If Ten: Shame

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Bérenice Béjo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Tom McCarthy, Win Win

Best Adapted Screenplay
George Clooney, Grant Henslov and Brian Willimon, The Ides of March
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Eric Roth, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian, Moneyball
Tate Taylor, The Help
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:05 pm

1998 struck me as being similar to this year for the nebulous nature of the category: we could see four or five of the nominees come from films without best picture citations (Nolte, Brooks, Plummer, Branagh, Oswalt, Hammer) and those that MIGHT be nominated that come from best picture possibilities seem fairly weak (Hill, von Sydow, Kignsley) as possible winners. I didn't realize that Coburn was so well-liked in general, though. I always assumed that Plummer's veteran status was more due to his age as opposed to actual work. I believe flipp mentioned Corey Stoll way back at the beginning of the season, and he's definitely remained in the conversation longer than I expected (a stupid SAG ensemble decision certainly helped)

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 6:44 am

BEST PICTURE
 
The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

War Horse

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

Moneyball

The Help

Midnight In Paris

The Tree Of Life

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

DIRECTOR

The Artist

The Descendants

War Horse

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

The Tree Of Life

ADAPTED

The Descendants

Moneyball

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

Hugo

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

ORIGINAL

The Artist

Midnight In Paris

Young Adult

A Separation

Win Win

L. ACTOR

Jean Dujardin - The Artist

Leo Dicaprio - J. Edgar

George Clooney - The Descendants

Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Michael Fassbender - Shame

L. ACTRESS

Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady

Viola Davis - The Help

Michelle Williams - My Week With Maryilyn

Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs

Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin

S. ACTOR

Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Armie Hammer - J. Edgar

Albert Brooks - Drive

Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn

Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

S. ACTRESS

Octavia Spencer - The Help

Berenice Bejo - The Artist

Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

Vanessa Redgrave - Corialanus

Carey Mulligan - Shame

EDITING

War Horse

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

The Artist

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

CINEMATOGRAPHY

War Horse

The Tree Of Life

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

SET

Hugo

The Artist

The Deathly Hallows

War Horse

J. Edgar

COSTUME

Hugo

The Artist

J. Edgar

W.E.

Jane Eyre

SCORE

War Horse

Hugo

The Artist

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

SOUND
 
War Horse

The Adventures Of Tintin

Hugo

Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

SOUND EDITING

War Horse

The Adventures Of Tintin

Super 8

The Deathly Hallows

Mission Impossible 4

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Deathly Hallows

Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes

The Tree Of Life

Hugo

Super 8

MAKE-UP

J. Edgar

The Iron Lady

Hugo
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Uri » Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:10 am

The Original BJ wrote:I'm sort of on the Mister Tee side with respect to the Christopher Plummer situation (though not his performance, which I'm strongly rooting for to win).


I guess the older one gets, the less willing they are to fully embrace this particular take on old age (and Life in general). Plummer is ok. He is adorable once one goes along with the cloying nature of this film (as are Laurent's generic French charm and the dog).

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby bizarre » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:01 pm

Albert Brooks is a shoo-in for a nomination, but I don't see any scenario where he could win. Nick Nolte or Max von Sydow are the most likely upsets in my opinion.

A more perplexing race is Best Supporting Actress. Predicting the nominations is difficult enough at this point but none of the contenders really make sense. The generally accepted lineup at the moment is Bejo/Chastain(Help)/McTeer/Spencer/Woodley. I'd be inclined to agree but I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Chastain's ubiquity, respect for Michael Shannon's performance and the strategic screener rollout for Take Shelter could result in a supporting nomination for her performance in that film. If that is the case I could see her winning for a large, 'supportive' role that fits the 'Best Supporting Actress winner' template better than anyone else in the running - a la Marcia Gay Harden in 2000. If she is nominated for The Help I'd say the win would be between Bejo (large role in an incredibly well-liked film, but one universally seen as less complex than her competition's) and Spencer, again in a huge hit but I feel that the backlash to The Help's characterisations will hurt her more than it hurts Davis.

If Carey Mulligan, Melissa McCarthy or Vanessa Redgrave upset for a nomination I could see situations in which any of them win.

However if Bejo/Chastain/McTeer/Spencer/Woodley are the nominees our winner is most likely going to be someone almost completely unknown up until this year.

For the record, I'm predicting the wins to go to Dujardin/Williams/von Sydow/Chastain(TS), assuming von Sydow and Chastain are nominated. If they aren't, I'd predict Dujardin/Williams/Plummer/Bejo.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby ITALIANO » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:14 pm

In retrospect, Lauren Bacall lost for such an endless list of reasons that one wonders why she was considered to be the absolute favorite only one second before Kevin Spacey opened the envelope. There's one more reason - which may be the most important: she lost to a young and beautiful actress playing a positive, healthy character in a big hit. But of course "young" and "beautiful" play a lesser role in Best Supporting Actor, which is why comparing Plummer and Bacall is probably useless.

I will see Beginners very soon, so right now I have no idea if Plummer's role is of Oscar caliber or not. It's true that, as an actor, while certainly admired, he's never been "loved", and there's a certain coldness in his approach to his roles which has always made him seen a bit remote (if the Academy had REALLY liked him, it could have nominated him more than just once before, for example for his much talked-about supporting turn in The Insider). Don Ameche he isn't - and honestly it's not like Don Ameche had given a performance of Laurence Olivier-level in Cocoon. But of course it all depends on the alternatives - and if the only alternative is a character actor with a less celebrated film career and from a movie that most of the not exactly young Oscar voters must have found very annoying, well, what can I say - the Academy Award will obviously in Plummer's hands.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:26 pm

Okri wrote:Tee, how would you talk about Coburn's win in 1998?

I'll freely acknowledge that was one I didn't see coming, because I thought Affliction wouldn't be too ugly a movie for alot of voters to abide; in that sense, it's more Brooks/Drive than Plummer/Beginners -- though Coburn was obviously more a Hollywood mainstay than Brooks (and, despite playing many despicable characters over his career, apparently a well-liked human being). It was a very weak slate that year, with the only best picture representative, Geoffrey Rush, coming off a win only two years prior (and unimpressive besides), Ed Harris in another decent-but-unexceptional role, and my pick, Billy Bob Thornton, probably hobbled by his Sling Blade screenplay victory. In hindsight, I figured Nick Nolte's best actor nomination got many voters to at least SEE Affliction, and longtime career affection carried the day for Coburn.

Which, by the way, is part of the reason for my thinking Branagh could prevail. Contrary to Magilla's thinking, I believe Michelle Williams is every bit as in-the-race as Streep and Davis, and voters will make a point of seeing her film -- something that may not be the case for all with regard to Drive or Beginners.

I want to tack-on to what BJ said about the potential range of nominees and what the particular slate will do to some races. I think this year we have more potential than in some time for the shape of the field to have an impact on the outcome -- not so much in leads, where Clooney/Pitt/Dujardin and Streep/Davis/Williams are likely the full group of potential winners regardless of what gets the last slots. But I think who gets the uncommitted spots in each supporting group could affect the calculus significantly, giving us a Marisa Tomei/Marcia Gay Harden Oscar-nominee-only winner (back in '88, both winners fit that description. though that was of course pre-SAG).

Those of you who have access to the Sunday NY Times should really check out the article by Michael Cielpy, who seems determined to use his new assignment as Oscar guru to expose himself as the most clueless analyst around. Earlier articles have shamelessly pimped Extremely Loud, and here he declares its omission at Globes a stunning development. But he mostly deals with "Oscar surprises", and gets some ludicrous quotes. Peter Bart says the last time he was surprised by the Oscars was when Gandhi beat E.T. -- a win that surprised precisely no one I knew, and which of course was followed by any number of bigger upsets just in best picture (Out of Africa, Driving Miss Daisy, Shakespeare in Love, Crash). And, though Cielpy's writing gets murky further on, he actually seems to suggest John Wayne's True Grit win came as a stunner to most of America. I'm not surprised that those who didn't live through things I did inevitably have less specific understanding of the times. But John Wayne's True Grit Oscar was a fait accompli from the day his movie opened in July 1969, and it's shocking someone can write for a major newspaper and be unaware of that fact.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby The Original BJ » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:49 pm

I'm sort of on the Mister Tee side with respect to the Christopher Plummer situation (though not his performance, which I'm strongly rooting for to win). I think he's probably the most far-out-in-front acting candidate in all four races...BUT his movie's extremely low profile makes me less inclined to declare him a certainty than some. Add to that the fact that, while a veteran, Plummer doesn't seem to me to be a criminally overdue, must-win Oscar actor (in the same way Lauren Bacall wasn't), and I see a situation where another candidate COULD possibly emerge as a threat to win. (And it's possible that candidate could be someone with iffy nomination prospects -- doesn't this category seem ripe for a totally out of the blue nominee?)

Perhaps Plummer's win will be forgone if he snags all the precursors, but at this point he seems to be a classic example of the ostensible-but-weak frontrunner, the kind that often pulls through to win, but who just as often gets upset on Oscar night.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Okri » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:31 pm

Tee, how would you talk about Coburn's win in 1998?

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby OscarGuy » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:03 am

Branagh won't win for My Week with Marilyn. He may be fun and engaging in the film, but it's such a trifle of a performance, well below him as an actor. The only way Branagh wins is if Harvey gets a nut up his ass and decides he wants to push someone else for the win.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Reza » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:46 am

Big Magilla wrote:I'm not a fan of Beginners either, but I really don't see how Plummer can lose. If von Sydow is nominated, he could pull some votes away but if not, he has to be the clear insider's favorite over Brooks, Branagh and Nolte and whoever takes the fifth slot. The only way Branagh could possibly win is if there is overwhelming support for Michelle Willimas in the Marilyn-Olivier flick and I'm not sensing that at all. It's Streep or not Streep and if it's not Streep, it's likely Davis.


Oh, I hope Davis doesn't win.

Michelle Williams will look so much better standing next to Brad Pitt holding their Oscars. Isn't this what the Oscars are all about nowadays?

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:18 am

I'm not a fan of Beginners either, but I really don't see how Plummer can lose. If von Sydow is nominated, he could pull some votes away but if not, he has to be the clear insider's favorite over Brooks, Branagh and Nolte and whoever takes the fifth slot. The only way Branagh could possibly win is if there is overwhelming support for Michelle Willimas in the Marilyn-Olivier flick and I'm not sensing that at all. It's Streep or not Streep and if it's not Streep, it's likely Davis.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:55 pm

My thoughts on supporting actor, which is the category that looks closest to nailed down, but -- showing how in flux the year is -- could still go another way:

I'm not as crazy about Beginners as many here. I like its style, and the "you make me straight/I'll make you Gentile" back-story, which niely sets up MacGregor's very wary approach to relationships. But the MacGregor/Laurent storyline gives me problems, starting with their meet-cute initial encounter (they're at a masquerade AND she has laryngitis? As The New Yorker used to say, Block That Metaphor!), and carrying through to their break up/make up finale, which seemed to rise from narrative desperation. I liked Plummer's part of the film better, but once again -- as in 1999 -- I remain immune to whatever charm Plummer exudes to make so many people deem him the Oscar favorite. He's perfectly fine, but I have to feel there's a double-narrative working in his favor to make him the front-runner: he plays as sympathetic a character as one could dream up (coming out at 77 and then tragically dying), and he's got the 50-year resume for veteran points. Without those things working for him -- especially given the film's paltry box-office -- I can't imagine him being put forth as so likely an Oscar victor.

But, given the outcome of the critics' prizes, it appears to be between him and Brooks, and Brooks' film, I feel certain, will not go over big with lots of Academy types, which would favor Plummer heavily. Forced to choose, I'd go with him today. However, I've wondered before if this match-up might parallel the '07 supporting actress race, where the early awards went to either Amy Ryan, in an audience-friendly but not widely seen film (like Beginners), and Cate Blanchett in a film I doubt many voters made it all the way through (like Drive). It wasn't till Ruby Dee showed up at SAG, and then Swinton at BAFTA, that it became a clear possibility Academy folk would look elsewhere, to a more popular film. I'm not sure right now who that would be, but I wouldn't rule out anyone, including Branagh.

One more thing. People referenced Bacall below, but something was left out about why she lost: yes, she was a star of 50 years standing, and had beloved status among movie-goers -- but she also had a reputation within the business of being a vile pain in the ass (when she did Woman of the Year on Broadway, someone painted "The Beast of Broadway" in the elevator to her dressing room). Thus, the career points angle didn't pay off as expected. I wouldn't say Christopher Plummer has as bad a rep in the industry, but he's definitely not beloved, which means he could lose some votes among people who've worked with him. He could thus run away with SAG (the actors who don't know him) but lose at the Academy (among those who do).

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Okri » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:17 pm

For what it's worth, I'm still predicting the Daldry film for picture/director, if only to be happy at being either right or wrong. That, and I really don't know how to predict with the best picture structure the way it is.


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