SAG Nominations

[FilmFan720]

But it's certainly true that something like Hugo is notable for its absence.

I never thought Hugo would factor in the SAG Ensemble category. Or even War Horse. Or The Tree of Life. They're more like director's pictures.

You could say the same about Slumdog Millionaire or the Hurt Locker, yet both slipped in on general best picture momentum. In fact, I'm told Braveheart (in the first year Ensemble was given) was the last film to win the best picture Oscar without a nomination in this category. If you've already written off Hugo as a best picture possibility, fine, but this omission -- from an historical statistical POV -- definitely works against it.

Yes, but both of Slumdog and Hurt Locker had acting nods from SAG to go with their Ensemble nods. It is the rare film that gets an Ensemble nod without a solo acting nod. Midnight in Paris did it this year, but that is looked at as a strong acting piece. Hugo, War Horse and Tree of Life are in this race with no mention of possible acting nods anywhere (especially with Chastain going with The Help). Those films don't tend to garner nods here (i.e. Avatar) but still remain strong Best Picture candidates (at least for a nomination). This hurts them a lot less than the lack of a nomination for an "acting film" does, i.e. Moneyball, J. Edgar or Beginners.

[mojoe92]

Where the hell are

Elisabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene
John Hawkes- Martha Marcy May Marlene
Rooney Mara- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Get rid of Tilda Swinton and Glen Close and add Olsen, and Mara
Get rid of Nick Nolte and add Hawkes

[OscarGuy]

Weighin in here.

I think the reason Demian Bichir has shown up here apart from that first-of-the-season screener release (I still haven't watched mine) is that SAG also has Television Awards and I'm sure Weeds is a regular contender for Ensemble. That being said, if you are familiar with Bichir's work in Weeds (which I am), you'd be impressed by how different he looks just in the trailer. SAG voters love such departures. It shows an actor has range. Jodie Foster won the SAG award for Nell, a performance vastly different from all the ones she's given prior. And I'll be honest, I knew of Bichir as there has been talk for a couple of months about him popping up in a few places, but SAG wasn't what I expected. I knew the name associated with A Better Life but until someone made the connection to Weeds below, I had no idea. I hadn't familiarized myself with his name from Weeds but now I'm just astounded its the same person.

As for Close, she definitely needed this. I was about to scratch her name off my list until I heard McTeer nominated this morning in the live announcement. I knew Close would probably follow (especially since she's also SAG nominated for Damages, which probably helped boost her visibility). Now she's still alive, but I wonder for how long. I'm surprised that Charlize Theron didn't appear, but Young Adult has not been viewed much, like Extremely Loud and War Horse (and Coriolanus for that matter). And perhaps it is a case of "I've seen these already" familiarity that helped a number of these performers. We Need to Talk About Kevin has been on people's radars longer and did get screeners out before Thanksgiving. The OFCS hasn't gotten screeners for War Horse or Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close even though those studios have sen us other titles (J. Edgar, Kung Fu Panda 2, etc.).

Redgrave's position in Coriolanus is definitely hurt by the film's late release and I wonder if some studios might take this year as an example and push their releases earlier. I would have thought it would happen after the Children of Men debacle, but it hasn't...

I'm ecstatic to see Armie Hammer here. I thought he was amazing. Sure, he wasn't given much to do, but he nailed it. I fondly remember the scene where he and Hoover have just finished a day at the track and the two of them get into an argument. While DiCaprio is explosive in the scene, Hammer's performance is richly subtle. I hope he gets an Oscar nomination, though I'm losing hope as J. Edgar fades farther with each passing group. Hopefully, this will keep him alive for awhile.

I said in another thread that Gary Oldman's performance was just too subtle for an award and I'm thinking it may also be too subtle for Oscar voters. At least Michael Fassbender has some very strong emotional scenes in Shame. Oldman has nothing. It's not sentimental, it just exists. It's a master performance, but one that voters just won't write down if they don't see the pyrotechnics, which is certainly a shame.

[Damien]

Redgrave and Von Sydow are almost out and they didn't buy anything related to Drive.

How many of you already went to imdb to see who is Demian Bichir?

No consensus this season...

Not me. I not only know who Demian Bichir is, but have seen (and reviewed) his film. This year, more than past years, seems to be dominated by "if they can make it, so can I" nominees so treasured by the waiters and waitresses clinging to their SAG cards while waiting for their big break.

Demian Bichir was a regular on Weeds for a couple of years as the Mexican drug lord. Since that's one of the very few TV shows I watch, I didn't need no IMdb. I do however for half of those TV nominees. And for SUpporting Actress nominee Jenny McCarthy.

[ITALIANO]

Yes, it's a confused year, especially when it comes to the acting races - but we can't deny that there's a movie that seem to be liked by everyone - critics and professionals - and this movie is The Artist. If there weren't this problem that some potentially strong films haven't been seen yet, it'd be absurd at this point not to predict The Artist for Best Picture and Best Director. It looks like a clear winner.

I mostly agree and, if I had to place a bet today, it would be The Artist without question. But, three things:

The Oscars are a long way off and, as other films have found, wearing the front-runner's crown for such a stretch can be wearying. It's possible what most feel is the slightness of The Artist will become an issue over that extended period.

I know it's not popular at this site (haven't seen it myself, so no opinion yet), but The Descendants meets basically all those parameters you mention as well. And it's a fairly solid box-office performer.

The biggest issue: The Artist is really not earning like I think alot of people expected. Its per-screen averages for now aren't all that much higher than A Dangerous Method. Some people are saying "Hey, it's a black and white silent, what do you expect?" -- but as far as I can tell, The Artist (unlike the Cronenberg) is being sold as a real crowd-pleaser, and don't crowd-pleasers have to, by definition, draw big crowds?

Maybe this is a temporary problem -- perhaps the slow release will hold up spectacularly week after week, and it'll be another Weinstein juggernaut. But it might come down to this, which Mark Harris suggests in his most recent (as usual, insighful) Hollywood Prospectus column:

"The Weinstein Company will have to eyeball the grosses and time things with its customary shrewdness in figuring out whether the best pitch to the Academy is “America is falling in love with this movie!” or “We’re counting on you voters to rise above vulgar populism and recognize this rare and precious jewel.” Don’t underestimate Harvey’s ability to effect that transition in a heartbeat when a statuette is within reach."

It's certainly too soon to say, but I honestly can't find alternatives at the moment - and this includes The Descendants, which I haven't seen yet of course, but which seems to be a bit too divisive to emerge as a big winner. War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close at least have the advantage of being still "unidentified objects", so who knows. (Though the War Horse trailer, with its syrupy cinematography, looks too much like an Oscar machine to really become one - it verges on the unintentional parody. But Stephen Daldry has a talent for making his movies feel "important", and this time he has chosen a subject that Americans, for obvious reasons, are very sensitive about. We must wait and see).

But one thing that, I'm sure, won't count much against The Artis is its box-office - nobody expects this movie to be a commercial hit, it's foreign, it's silent, it's in black-and-white... it's too unique, too "different", it works on other levels, it's the anti-Avatar actually, so, as Mark Harris has pointed out, its not being a box-office hit can be used in favor of the movie itself.

[The Original BJ]

Well, the good news, as others have said, is that quite a few nominees showed up today who DIDN'T at the Broadcasters, signalling exciting, in flux races in a lot of categories.

I'm most crushed by the exclusions of Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan -- as far as I'm concerned, their respective races are basically useless without either of them at the top of the list, and I pray that the Globes will keep their chances alive.

Some thoughts on the specific categories:

Lead Actor -- Obviously Bichir was a never-considered-it-for-a-moment nominee for most of us. I don't think his surprise burst into the race will lead to an Oscar nom (like Hilary Swank/Conviction last year), but if it does...imagine how MORE surprising his Oscar inclusion would have been had the SAG awards not existed and he not already been prefigured there? It would have been one of the more jaw-dropping acting inclusions in a decade or more.

Lead Actress -- I haven't seen Albert Nobbs or Iron Lady yet, but strictly based on the quality of these actresses, this is a VERY high-class lineup. I saw We Need to Talk About Kevin this weekend, and there's something really exciting about Tilda Swinton receiving recognition for such a classically Swinton role, particularly after being overlooked for so many of those.

Supporting Actor -- Armie Hammer? UGH! It's not his fault his makeup is so bad, but those old-age scenes were just laughable. But it's not like he robbed anyone astonishing or anything. Albert Brooks was definitely better, but I wonder if he might turn out to be one of those critics' faves who just doesn't catch on with Oscar. This still seems like the most up-in-the-air race in terms of nominees that could conceivably come from nowhere.

Supporting Actress -- This seems like the most competitive category at this point. All five of these women seem very solidly in the hunt for an Oscar nom...but Carey Mulligan (please, Santa, I've been nice this year!) and Shailene Woodley seem just as possible, and given Vanessa Redgrave's legendary status (and the fact that she's very strong in Coriolanus), I don't think she's TOTALLY out of the race either, though her film's low-profile isn't doing her any favors. I honestly think the only lock is Octavia Spencer, and everyone else is duking it out for the final four spots.

Ensemble -- For all the griping about how awards bodies ignore comedy...the top category here features three flat-out comedies and two others with significant comedic elements. Worth noting, I think, that super-serious movies don't actually have a stranglehold on awards the way some might like to think.

W/R/T Extremely Loud and War Horse...most are towing the line that the films just haven't been seen yet, and that's why they aren't showing up anywhere. I don't disagree...but at what point does the fact that neither are making much traction with the precursors become a hindrance? It seems to me that the more the overall field settles, the less likely it's going to be for these films to break through.

Of course, Oscar nominations are over a month away, and the winds can still change a lot before then.

[anonymous1980]

But it's certainly true that something like Hugo is notable for its absence.

I never thought Hugo would factor in the SAG Ensemble category. Or even War Horse. Or The Tree of Life. They're more like director's pictures.

You could say the same about Slumdog Millionaire or the Hurt Locker, yet both slipped in on general best picture momentum. In fact, I'm told Braveheart (in the first year Ensemble was given) was the last film to win the best picture Oscar without a nomination in this category. If you've already written off Hugo as a best picture possibility, fine, but this omission -- from an historical statistical POV -- definitely works against it.

That is true. But both Slumdog and Hurt Locker were clear frontrunners from the get-go. This is a really weird year where there are only a few surefire nominations and no clear winning front-runner. Just like the Braveheart year.

[Mister Tee]

But it's certainly true that something like Hugo is notable for its absence.

I never thought Hugo would factor in the SAG Ensemble category. Or even War Horse. Or The Tree of Life. They're more like director's pictures.

You could say the same about Slumdog Millionaire or the Hurt Locker, yet both slipped in on general best picture momentum. In fact, I'm told Braveheart (in the first year Ensemble was given) was the last film to win the best picture Oscar without a nomination in this category. If you've already written off Hugo as a best picture possibility, fine, but this omission -- from an historical statistical POV -- definitely works against it.

[anonymous1980]

But it's certainly true that something like Hugo is notable for its absence.

I never thought Hugo would factor in the SAG Ensemble category. Or even War Horse. Or The Tree of Life. They're more like director's pictures.

[Reza]

Very happy they nominated Janet McTeer but who the hell is Demian Bichir and where did he suddenly appear from?

The veteran Mexican actor stars in Chris Weitz's A Better Life, a quasi-remake of The Bicycle Thief, but is probably best known for his role as Esteban Reyes in the cable TV series, Weeds.

Not familiar at all. Never seen Weeds although it's very popular here in Pakistan on the DVD circuit. Is his (Oscar?) nod going to be one of those Edward James Olmos moments at the Oscars?

[Mister Tee]

Yes, it's a confused year, especially when it comes to the acting races - but we can't deny that there's a movie that seem to be liked by everyone - critics and professionals - and this movie is The Artist. If there weren't this problem that some potentially strong films haven't been seen yet, it'd be absurd at this point not to predict The Artist for Best Picture and Best Director. It looks like a clear winner.

I mostly agree and, if I had to place a bet today, it would be The Artist without question. But, three things:

The Oscars are a long way off and, as other films have found, wearing the front-runner's crown for such a stretch can be wearying. It's possible what most feel is the slightness of The Artist will become an issue over that extended period.

I know it's not popular at this site (haven't seen it myself, so no opinion yet), but The Descendants meets basically all those parameters you mention as well. And it's a fairly solid box-office performer.

The biggest issue: The Artist is really not earning like I think alot of people expected. Its per-screen averages for now aren't all that much higher than A Dangerous Method. Some people are saying "Hey, it's a black and white silent, what do you expect?" -- but as far as I can tell, The Artist (unlike the Cronenberg) is being sold as a real crowd-pleaser, and don't crowd-pleasers have to, by definition, draw big crowds?

Maybe this is a temporary problem -- perhaps the slow release will hold up spectacularly week after week, and it'll be another Weinstein juggernaut. But it might come down to this, which Mark Harris suggests in his most recent (as usual, insighful) Hollywood Prospectus column:

"The Weinstein Company will have to eyeball the grosses and time things with its customary shrewdness in figuring out whether the best pitch to the Academy is “America is falling in love with this movie!” or “We’re counting on you voters to rise above vulgar populism and recognize this rare and precious jewel.” Don’t underestimate Harvey’s ability to effect that transition in a heartbeat when a statuette is within reach."

[Sabin]

I really, really wish this year happened any other year...

The choices being made across the board aren't just unpredictable, they're fascinating! I just wish all the films were different and we had a race we cared about...

THOUGHTS

Best Actor is essentially now a nine-way race with only Jean Dujardin, George Clooney, and Brad Pitt secure in their placing. How much stock to we place in Demian Bichir? Or rather, do we place more stock in his nomination than Michael Fassbender and his dirty movie? In DiCaprio's old age makeup?

Best Actress is a little more whittled down. I have yet to see Lynne Ramsay's We Need to Talk About Kevin, but the idea of a Lynne Ramsay film getting nominated is so strange to me! Davis, Streep, and Williams are set, and now Swinton has to be seen as a somewhat more visibly better bet than Close, Theron, Mara, and Olsen. I'm still dubious, but clearly the Guild was impressed enough by Albert Nobbs to nominate Close and McTeer.

Best Supporting Actress is basically a six-way race right now, and the rare one that picks a broadly comedic turn which I am absolutely fine with. Of course, Octavia Spencer is a pretty funny lady too, as is Jessica Chastain who seems to be poised for a nomination for her work in The Help. I have no idea where this award is going to land, but to be honest it wouldn't surprise me if Melissa McCarthy's year continues at this rate. The only question for me is whether Shailene Woodley, Janet McTeer, or Carey Mulligan gets the final spot.

Best Supporting Actor is an incredibly open race. I knew that industry people wouldn't like or get Drive. Albert Brooks is pretty clearly in, but now he occupies the Ed Harris/The Truman Show position where we know pretty clearly what a large voting bloc thinks of the film. Plummer and Kenneth Branagh are in, as is Brooks. And then? Nolte, Hammer, Oswalt, von Sydow, Serkis, Hill, Hawkes, and Stoll. I'm a little surprised to see Armie Hammer here considering how little Clint Eastwood gave him to work with in the film and how roundly panned his old age makeup is. In retrospect, that should be enough to land him the nomination. I'm also surprised to see Nick Nolte because while I thought he was fairly strong it didn't occur to me that others would line up behind a film like Warrior. At this point, he has to be considered a reasonably strong bet for a nomination. He does have everything he needs in the role. Jonah Hill gets a large push for Moneyball, an actor I pretty much dismissed after he failed to get a bcast nomination over Andy Serkis. At this point? I'm guessing Plummer, Branagh, Brooks, Nolte, and Hammer.

And for Best Ensemble, The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, and The Help are pretty secure (especially The Help, which I've been talking about for possible win status for months now), and getting a big boost is Bridesmaids which could at this rate conceivably elbow out Drive and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

[Mister Tee]

The year of pure murk continues. I can envision an Oscar morning that largely duplicates this list, or one that diverges by 40-50%. Good times.

There's no need to disparage the entire roster of the SAG Nominating Committee, which includes plenty of insightful people (my wife was on it in '02, and my former roommate served last year -- both of whose taste I'd trust over many critics). But, two reasons you can get nominations like this: some of the chosen actors have tight schedules (like, doing stage work at various spots around the country) and don't have access to screenings of everything; and actors' taste in the aggregate runs more to the popular/sentimental than, say, writers or directors.

Thus, particularly in this year of late-openers, you have a preponderance of well-liked films from earlier in the year (Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, The Help) and those that were aggressively screened (I'd bet the house Glenn Close spoke to a good percentage of these nominators personally). Thus, the Bichir nomination, while theoretically from the blue, makes sense because there was a fair amount of publicity about the film being the very first screener sent out this year, and the fact that it's an accessible, emotions-jerking film gave the somewhat-familiar-from-TV actor a leg up. And a late-release, audience-testing effort like Shame (or a hyper-violent film like Drive) doesn't really have its best shot here. (Which does suggest Tilda Swinton might be stronger than I originally imagined, as she's the primary candidate to burst through that resistance)

You can say, geez, the producers of War Horse/Dragon Tattoo/Extremely Loud really screwed the pooch by not sending out screeners, at least. But those films are more more worried about piracy/keeping the lid on their projcts than about these nominations, which, like those of 2007, might have little correlation to the far-more-important-for-business Oscar nods.

Anyway, there are alot of "At least we got SAG" sighs of relief this morning -- the J. Edgar/Albert Nobbs folk, Jonah Hll (who I, to be honest, would pick over either Plummer or Brooks), Nick Nolte (who might just be getting a James Garner/Notebook career nod, or might parlay this into an Academy nomination). This was favorable territory for Melissa McCarthy, so I'm still dubious about her scoring with AMPAS...but I thought the same about Downey's Tropic Thunder nod and that came through.

Notable omissions? Most were connected to the late and possibly unscreened (Oldman, Redgrave). But Shailene Woodley is a potentially significant one, a la Andrew Garfield.

As for Sonic's suggestion that Ensemble may no longer be surrogate for best picture -- well, I think The Artist and The Descendants pretty much represent core best picture contenders, and both The Help and Midnight in Paris could make an extended Academy list. But it's certainly true that something like Hugo is notable for its absence.

[ITALIANO]

Yes, it's a confused year, especially when it comes to the acting races - but we can't deny that there's a movie that seem to be liked by everyone - critics and professionals - and this movie is The Artist. If there weren't this problem that some potentially strong films haven't been seen yet, it'd be absurd at this point not to predict The Artist for Best Picture and Best Director. It looks like a clear winner.

Gary Oldman is officially dead (and I don't think he's ever been much alive even before). But I kind of hope that Michael Fassbender isn't - Best Actor is crowded this year, and it's possible that his movie was too edgy for these voters (Carey Mulligan also ignored, as anyone from Drive, a movie that I didn't like much but that American critics have often mentioned in their endless lists of awards). The Academy is also conservative, but maybe a bit less, so Fassbender and even, less probably, Albert Brooks could find a seat at the Oscars.

As always, Best Supporting Actress seems to be the most unpredictable category though, of these five, only Janet McTeer seems to be really repleaceble (I don't know if the rules here are the same as at the Oscars - if not, Chastain is also a question mark due to the many movies she's been in this year).

[rolotomasi99]

While I did not do a SAG predix, here are how my most recent picks for Oscar acting categories and the SAG noms line-up


Lead Actor
Match
Leo Dicaprio - J. Edgar
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
My Predix
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Their Picks
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Demian Bichir - A Better Life

Lead Actress
Match (All of them!)
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Viola Davis - The Help
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams - My Week With Maryilyn
Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin

Supporting Actor
Match
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
Nick Nolte - Warrior
My Predix
Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close
Albert Brooks - Drive
Their Picks
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn

Supporting Actress
Match
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
My Predix
Vanessa Redgrave - Corialanus
Carey Mulligan - Shame
Shailene Woodley - The Descendents
Their Picks
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids