Broadcast Film Critics Nominations

[Reza]

no Vanessa Redgrave, Glenn Close, Gary Oldman or Max Von Sydow....

....and no Janet McTeer, which is fine here, but I hope she is remembered by the Academy when nominations are announced.

[Big Magilla]

the schmaltzier voters will undoubtedly coalesce around The Help (a better movie than either of these)

This is as frightening a sentence as I have ever read.

Ditto.

I have an open mind re War Horse and Extremely Loud at this point, not having seen either, but The Help ? It's an unabashed chick flick. What percentage of male Academy members are going to vote for that? The only thing it merits are the likely acting nods for Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain and maybe the song sung over the end credits.

[Greg]

On those unreleased efforts...I saw War Horse this weekend, and I have to say that, IMO, I think it and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are the two least impressive pictures gunning for Best Picture attention.

My reaction to the War Horse trailer has been basically, "Is that It?" How does the movie compare to the trailer?

[anonymous1980]

I imagine if Harry Potter couldn't place here, its chances of making the Academy lineup are still pretty nil.

I'm gonna wait until BAFTA before I echo your sentiment and start queuing up those Movie Movies.

[Mister Tee]

the schmaltzier voters will undoubtedly coalesce around The Help (a better movie than either of these)

This is as frightening a sentence as I have ever read.

I think the King's Speech win has caused many to over-expect schmaltz from Oscar voters. You'd think No Country for Old Men had never happened. It's certainly possible voters will go for these late-season sentiment-fests, but equally possible they won't.

As I wrote the other day, we're in an unusual year; rarely in recent times have so many major entries held off till Christmas (by which I mean, their first screenings, as opposed to those that preview at festivals and then release commercially in December). The last time we had a substantial cluster -- two years ago -- three of the four (Lovely Bones, Nine & Invictus) were so dispensable we never saw how they'd be integrated at the last minute. Bottom line, to echo BJ: there are alot of entrants still on the table, and -- given late-developing buzz, and even late screening -- I'm not sure even the Globes and SAGs will be as determinative as they've been of late. Oscar votersr could go their own way on numerous films.

And, good to see you, flipp.

[The Original BJ]

I imagine if Harry Potter couldn't place here, its chances of making the Academy lineup are still pretty nil. Ditto J. Edgar, which missed out on a lot of below-the-line attention its most arduous supporters have assumed it would receive.

To expand a little on Mister Tee's mention of Tinker Tailor...it seems like there are quite a number of movies this year that I feel I have ZERO idea of how well or poorly they will fare with Oscar. That's one, in addition to Drive and The Tree of Life, as well as the trio that have yet to be released (by Daldry, Fincher, and Spielberg). It's unusual -- and exciting, I should emphasize -- that so many candidates that could conceivably place across the board could also be ignored as well.

On those unreleased efforts...I saw War Horse this weekend, and I have to say that, IMO, I think it and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are the two least impressive pictures gunning for Best Picture attention. (I've not seen Dragon Tattoo yet, though, but that's clearly a different kind of film entirely.) I guess it's not IMPOSSIBLE for two really corny efforts to make Best Picture -- The Cider House Rules and The Green Mile did it in a five-only field, to cite just one example -- but I remain unconvinced that BOTH of these milquetoast affairs are the big Oscar hits prognosticators have long assumed. Toss in the fact that some of the schmaltzier voters will undoubtedly coalesce around The Help (a better movie than either of these), and I find it hard to envision a scenario where both of these year-end question marks become major Oscar players. (But I'm willing to concede that I know people who have seen both films who think otherwise, so we'll see.)

I'll try not to be too grouchy about Bérénice Bejo this season -- she isn't the WORST example of category fraud we've ever seen, but in some ways, I do think she represents yet another lowered bar in the "anything goes" mentality with respect to category placement. She isn't a kid, and she doesn't have inner competition from another lead of the same gender, the two excuses (however dumb they might be) that have often accompanied justification of category fraud. She's the female lead in a romance, but is getting a supporting push because the nomination is an easier get. For her to take a nomination away from Carey Mulligan or Vanessa Redgrave -- the two best supporting actresses I've seen this year, both of whom seem on the bubble -- would be a real shame.

[flipp525]

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

As cornmeal-ish as The Help was, I thought Octavia Spencer was really quite wonderful in it and most deserving of the accolades she's getting. Her character was fresh, rambunctious, sweet without dipping into saccharine and definitely the film's scene-stealer. She never let Minnie be overtaken by the crutches of Aunt Chloe-ism. A good friend of mine and I have always loved that actress almost entirely on the basis of a single scene (she was, of course, the woman in the elevator with John Cusack in Being John Malkovich "7 1/2 floor? I'll take you through it").

I know that Big Magilla has envisioned a line-up of veteran winners mirroring something like the 1981 slate (including a supporting Redgrave), but isn't this one of the more up-in-the-air categories this year? I could also see an argument for a Melissa McCarthy win a la Marisa Tomei.

Just popping out of hiding to join the conversation. Hey, UAADBers...

[Sonic Youth]

I was so looking forward to waking up today, because I mistakenly thought the Golden Globe nominations would be announced this morning. Imagine my disappointment when I woke up and found these instead.

Someone on Gold Derby actually said something that made me laugh (intentionally): "It makes sense for ________ to miss out. After all, these are predictions not award nominations."

(The ___________ was "Harry Potter", but I didn't want to make that the focus of the comment.)

[Mister Tee]

Have you guys ever watched the Broadcast Critics' Awards? They spend half the evening talking about how often they foretell the Oscars. It's hard not to believe they actively skew their voting process to produce this result.

Not much to say here, except:

Sticking Extremely Loud in three main categories but nowhere else (including a hyped von Sydow) seems bet-hedging. War Horse may be in the same category, missing as it is in screenplay. I think both those films are still running on the momentum of the year-long expectations game, and I'm not convinced both or either will turn up at the Oscars.

If Broadcasters are going to nudge, I'd certainly rather them do it on behalf of fringe possibilities like Olsen and Mulligan.

It's probably not great news for Dragon Tattoo to be omitted in all the glamour categories. I have a hard time getting a fix on that film's Oscar possibilities. The reviews today are pretty close to the top of my expectations -- given the genre limitation, and the inevitable backlash to the books' over-success and the "just saw it" perception. It may just not qualify as "serious" enough (you know -- compared to a work of solemnity like The Help). If it's a breakout hit over Christmas, I could still see it sneaking onto AMPAS' best picture list, and Mara cracking the tight best actress group.

And what about Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy? It's amazing, how many films there are that, by virtue of reviews and box office, seem like award possibilities, but are being left out.

Should we take Drive seriously, or is it just an Into the Wild? Despite all the mentions the film has got over the past week or so, my inclination is it's limited to Brooks, maybe sound or editing. But it's possible a hipster quadrant of the writers' branch could get it in for adapted screenplay, where, after Descendants & Moneyball, things are murky (if crowded).

[OscarGuy]

Sometimes I think the BFCA members submit their Oscar prediction ballots instead of their critic ballots.

I think Gary Oldman is just too subtle for these guys.

[FilmFan720]

Yes Magilla, but usually their acting nominations are pretty close to the oscar nominees year after year (actually, I think that's what they try to do in fact... predict the nominees)

Yes, but their success tends to only rely on how far things seem set. In years like 2007, where there was no consensus coming from groups, they were wildly off in their nominations. That could be the same this year.

[mlrg]

Yes Magilla, but usually their acting nominations are pretty close to the oscar nominees year after year (actually, I think that's what they try to do in fact... predict the nominees)

Predict or influence?

Say what you will about Joel Siegel, but at least he, and some of the other founding members, were people you actually heard of.

I'm more interested in seeing what SAG comes up with tomorrow and the Globes the day after.

Me too.

And I really hope Redgrave pops up at SAG and Golden Globes.

[Big Magilla]

Yes Magilla, but usually their acting nominations are pretty close to the oscar nominees year after year (actually, I think that's what they try to do in fact... predict the nominees)

Predict or influence?

Say what you will about Joel Siegel, but at least he, and some of the other founding members, were people you actually heard of.

I'm more interested in seeing what SAG comes up with tomorrow and the Globes the day after.

[Dien]

This season started off with some ambiguity, but now I'm starting to see trends. The only inconsistency is EL&IC.

[mlrg]

Yes Magilla, but usually their acting nominations are pretty close to the oscar nominees year after year (actually, I think that's what they try to do in fact... predict the nominees)