The Golden Globes

[Sabin]

LOCKS
Best Picture - The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight in Paris
Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius
Best Actor - George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt
Best Actress - Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams
Best Supporting Actor - Kenneth Branagh, Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress - Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer
Best Original Screenplay - The Artist, Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants, The Help, Moneyball

[mlrg]

In your opinion, what is locked at this stage in the acting categories? My take:

Actor: Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt

Actress: Davis, Streep and Williams

Sup Actor: Plummer and Branagh

Sup Actress: Spencer and Chastain (for The Help)

[Big Magilla]

I

But, as I said the other day, I don't rule out a late charge by something that came along at the last minute. However, as Sonic rightly points out, why can't that something be Dragon Tattoo, which so far is getting, on the whole, a better response than the two touted weep-fests, and certainly appears a commercial favorite? It seems tunnel vision on the part of Oscar-bloggers to keep insisting on War Horse and Extremely Loud and to discount Dragon Tattoo entirely.

I don't know which bloggers those might be as I hardly have time to keep up with all of them, even the few I do occasionally tune into, but my perception is just the opposite, that they've been touting Girl, which may be a box office success, though I still have my doubts about that, but doesn't seem at all to be an awards magnet. On the other hand, they continue to debunk War Horse, and are probably right about that seeing how little impact it has on the HFPA, but I haven't heard anything remotely definitive one way or the other about Extrememly Loud and Increidbly Close. What I've heard is that the film has so far been screened for select invitiees only, not everyone out there.

[The Original BJ]

I have no room in my life for people who don't recognize the awesomeness of Carey Mulligan. The fact that her sensational Shame work keeps getting overlooked for people like Jessica Chastain and Shailene Woodley (who are nice, but COME ON!) just doesn't compute to me at all. I hope against hope she can emerge as one of those no Globe/no SAG Oscar nominees, but I think that's not the likeliest scenario. Blegh.

Keeping with that category, Melissa McCarthy took a bit of a hit, especially since I'd have assumed she would have scored here regardless of whether or not she ultimately makes the Oscar list.

The Tree of Life was never going to be a Globes movie -- lest we forget, The Thin Red Line was completely shut out here en route to seven Oscar nods -- so I don't think its omission is so meaningful in the long run. But I echo Mister Tee's sentiment about Extremely Loud, which I put in different words yesterday -- at what point do prognosticators stop making excuses for why it isn't showing up anywhere? Do people really think a sizable Oscar nom haul is going to just materialize out of nothing? That seems as unlikely a 0 to 100 awards trajectory as we've ever seen.

War Horse at least hung on for the Best Picture nod, but its omission pretty much everywhere else confirms my view that it's not really in the running to win major awards. I wouldn't be at all surprised for it to miss an Oscar nod for Best Picture at this point. (True, the DGA revived Munich, but quality-wise that was a substantially superior film, in my book.)

I actually thought the Globes might cite Bérénice Bejo in lead, to fill out that Comedy Actress category. But, apparently, the supporting campaign has stuck for good. It seems like there hasn't even been much Hailee Steinfeld-level grumbling about this.

I liked The Ides of March a lot more than many, so I was fine with its re-emergence here. I doubt it can go all the way to a Best Picture nom at the Oscars, but maybe this will give a boost to a writing nomination.

Sad that Elizabeth Olsen's chances are beyond dead...but excited that Tilda Swinton is a real player in this race!

[Big Magilla]

FYI: I've been told that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close WAS indeed screened for them in time.

Of course it was screened.

If it weren't, it would have received a few nominations.

For what?

[anonymous1980]

FWIW, I can't think of two people more dissimilar from each other than Jonah Hill and Mila Kunis.

Well, they're both Jewish. They have that in common.

What I meant was in terms of award nominations. Mila Kunis got in SAG and the Golden Globes last year but fell short of an Oscar nom. I think the same thing will happen to Jonah Hill.

[OscarGuy]

*raises hand* Sonic, I've had Swinton on my hopefuls list since May and I've considered her a threat for at least a month. While I wasn't sure if the star wattage of other nominees would eclipse hers, it seems she may be destined for another Oscar nod. And I think it has more to do with the fact that she has an Oscar now...they can't exactly ignore her like they used to.

[Sonic Youth]

FWIW, I can't think of two people more dissimilar from each other than Jonah Hill and Mila Kunis.

How about, Keannu Reeves is this year's Kathy Bates?

[nightwingnova]

So glad the Globes ignored the well-meaning but vastly overrated The Tree of Life. Too generic for its purposes.

[Mister Tee]

I haven't heard anything about an aggressive screener campaign for We Need to Talk About Kevin; it's from a tiny distributor that's never had much Oscar success in the past. But the movie has had longer (since Cannes)to percolate than most other entries. And the book, I'm told, was quite popular in an Oprah-ish way, whch may have caused some who got the screener to pop it in more readily (though from what I've heard, they got a far less audience-friendly version of the story via Ramsay). In any case, you're correct: for Swinton to be in such strong shape at this point (well ahead of, say, Theron on precursor points) is not the way I'd have bet three weeks ago.

This slate doesn't particularly shift the landscape -- it's not dissimilar to the past two days' lists, with people who got warning shots yesterday (Brooks, Fassbender & Woodley) back on track, and some of yesterday's back-from-the-dead candidates (the Albert Nobbs ladies) given further ballast. I don't take the Ides of March boomlet seriously; it seems very much a Globes-only phenomenon. And Jessica Chastain's vehicle to represent her broad year appears to have been chosen.

I don't know what people's problem is with Jonah Hill. His previous career, fine -- prior to Moneyball, I wouldn't have given a plugged nickel for it. But his work in Moneyball is classic support -- his interplay with Pitt turns scenes into perfecly executed vaudeville-like routines -- and he's in a popular film. I've been surprised all season at how few people have considered him likely.

The miniscule nod to War Horse seems obligatory, purely based on lead-up buzz. But there's always the DGA, which revived Munich six years ago, and could put Spielberg back firmly in the nominations race (though I think a win is way unlikely).

How long can we say "Maybe they didn't see it?" about Extremely Loud? Could Scott Rudin have been so spooked at losing his front-runner status last year that he opted to skip the entire precursor season? How about, people did see it, and they don't much care for it? (And don't tell me about the Broadcast-ers -- they always list alleged front-runners, even when they're Nine or The Shipping News)

But, as I said the other day, I don't rule out a late charge by something that came along at the last minute. However, as Sonic rightly points out, why can't that something be Dragon Tattoo, which so far is getting, on the whole, a better response than the two touted weep-fests, and certainly appears a commercial favorite? It seems tunnel vision on the part of Oscar-bloggers to keep insisting on War Horse and Extremely Loud and to discount Dragon Tattoo entirely.

I also think we could see some of the arty/fringier entrants show up at AMPAS -- Mulligan in Shame, Malick for director, anyway.

[Sonic Youth]

FYI: I've been told that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close WAS indeed screened for them in time.

Of course it was screened.

If it weren't, it would have received a few nominations.

[Sonic Youth]

It looks like Ricky Gervais shamed the Globes silly last year. I've only seen "Midnight in Paris", but the Best Comedy/Musical slate is very respectable on the face of it. And their star-whoring is much classier this year. Nobody cared for "Ides of March", but in this context it's Picture/Director/Actor/Screenplay quadfecta makes perfect sense here, a film that wears a power-suit and communicates elegance and sophistication to those who haven't seen it yet. The lavishment is ridiculous and undeserved, but it's a step up from "The Tourist". But were the same exact film directed by someone who didn't look like George Clooney, didn't have the acting resume of George Clooney, and didn't have the celebrity cachet of George Clooney, it would have half (if not one-quarter) the nominations it has now.

And they found a loophole to get Winslet and Foster nominated: make them lead actresses. To be fair, I can't think of anyone else that could take their places, and maybe the Globes couldn't either.

I'm very impressed at the trajectory Fassbender's precursor adventure is taking him, but Tilda Swinton is a blazing supernova coming out of nowhere. What is going on here? The Globe nomination was probably inevitable after all that came before, but how do we explain all that came before? The film has been in shown in a single theater for a single weekend in the U.S. There had been no advance buzz on it at all, or at least not on the level of "My Week With Marilyn" (much less "The Artist"). Europe has had more exposure to the film, which could have been a factor here. But how did enough Screen Actors' Guild members manage to see the film and then vote in such strong numbers? DVD screeners? That must be it, but all kinds of screeners are sent out, they can't all be watched by everybody, and the ones that tend to be watched first are the ones more highly buzzed and more highly anticipated. Plus, this film is supposed to be as dark as night. It's gotta be the power of word-of-mouth, like that old shampoo commercial, ("First she tried it, then she told her friends, then she told her friends, and so on and so on). As a fan of "Movern Callar", I'm pleased as anything that a Lynne Ramsay film is getting some sort of Oscar consideration. But - and maybe I'm out of the loop - did anyone see this coming two weeks ago?

I've been starting to think this will be the year Streep finally wins the third Oscar that the Academy who hates her so much has been cruelly denying her. A Best Film for Iron Lady would have all but sealed it. It didn't happen, and I know no one was predicting it, but would we really have been suprised if it had happened?

As long as we're playing the "X is this year's Y" game, could "Dragon Tatoo" be this year's "True Grit"? The reviews have been positive and a strong box office performance is a given, but its precursor performance so far has been even shoddier than TG's was. Rooney Mara's nomination here feels like a passing acknowledgement that the film exists, and that's not good. For AMPAS' Best Picture and Director categories, this film is probably done. But there's still hope. On February 26th, it may end up replacing The Ides of March's slot!

[Greg]

War Horse is filler.

I would say that War Horse is glue. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

[OscarGuy]

your word, Anonymous to fate's ear...I don't want to have to say "Oscar nominee" Jonah Hill...it's bad enough having to say "Oscar winner Cuba Gooding Jr."

[anonymous1980]

FYI: I've been told that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close WAS indeed screened for them in time.

I have a feeling Jonah Hill will be this year's Mila Kunis.