Forecasting L.A.

[anonymous1980]

I'll give it a whirl.

BEST PICTURE: The Tree of Life
BEST DIRECTOR: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
BEST ACTOR: George Clooney, The Descendants
BEST ACTRESS: Yun Jeong-hie, Poetry
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Albert Brooks, Drive
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
BEST SCREENPLAY: Alexander Payne, Nate Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
BEST FOREIGN FILM: A Separation
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Into the Abyss
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Dante Ferretti, Hugo

[bizarre]

I'll say:

Picture - A Separation (alt: The Tree of Life) (2nd alt: The Artist)
Director - Martin Scorsese (alt: Terrence Malick) (2nd alt: Nicolas Winding Refn)
Actor - Jean Dujardin (alt: George Clooney) (2nd alt: Michael Fassbender)
Actress - Tilda Swinton (alt: Olivia Colman) (2nd alt: Yun Jeong-hie)
Supporting Actor - Albert Brooks (alt: Christopher Plummer) (2nd alt: Patton Oswalt)
Supporting Actress - Sareh Bayat (alt: Vanessa Redgrave) (2nd alt: Carey Mulligan)
Screenplay - Margaret (alt: A Separation) (2nd alt: The Descendants)

NGNG.

[Damien]

Since these folks gave Best Picture to both About Schmidt and Sideways, I don't see any reason to bet against The Descendants, even though the make-up of the membership has changed over the years.

Best Film: The Descendants (r.u. - The Tree of Life)
Best Foreign-Language Film: A Separation (r.u. - Uncle Boonmee Recalls His Past Lives)
Best Actor - George Clooney in The Descendants (r.u. - Woody Harrelson in Rampart)
Best Actress - Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin (r.u. - Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia)
Best Supporting Actor - Albert Brooks in Drive (r.u. - Christopher Plummer in Beginners)
Best Supporting Actress - Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus (r.u. - Shaileen Woodley in The Descendants)
Best Director - Martin Scorsese for Hugo (r.u. - Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life)
Best Screenplay - The Descendants (r.u. - Midnight In Paris)
Best Cinematography - The Tree of Life (r.u. - Melancholia)
Best Design -The Tree of Life (r.u. - The Artist)
Best Score - The Artist (r.u. - Drive)
Goddamn Cartoon - Rango (r.u. - The Adventures of Tintin)
Best Documentary - Cave Of Forgotten Dreams (r.u. - Buck)

[mojoe92]

Best Film: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
R.U- The Tree of Life
Best Actor: Michael Fassbender
R.U- Thomas Horn
Best Actress: Michelle Williams
R.U- Elisabeth Olsen
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes
R.U.- Max Von Sydow
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy
R.U- Evan Rachel Wood
Best Director- David Fincher
R.U- Terrance Malick
Best Animated Feature- Winnie the Pooh
R.U- Wrinkles

[Sabin]

Best Film: The Descendants (r.u. - Drive)
Best Foreign-Language Film: A Separation (r.u. - Of Gods and Men)
Best Actor - Jean Dujardin, The Artist (r.u. - Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Best Actress - Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene (r.u. - Charlize Theron, Young Adult)
Best Supporting Actor - Albert Brooks, Drive (r.u. - Patton Oswalt, Young Adult)
Best Supporting Actress - Jessica Chastain, body of work (r.u. - Vanessa, Coriolanus)
Best Director - Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (r.u. - Nicholas Winding Refn, Drive)
Best Screenplay - The Descendants (r.u. - Moneyball)
Best Cinematography - The Tree of Life (r.u. - Drive)
Best Design - Hugo (r.u. - The Artist)
Best Score - The Artist (r.u. - John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin & War Horse)
Best Animated Film - Rango (r.u. - The Adventures of Tintin)
Best Documentary - Project Nim (r.u. - Tabloid)

[criddic3]

Film: Hugo
ru: War Horse

Actor: Jean Dujardin
ru: Gary Oldman

Actress: Meryl Streep
ru: Viola Davis

Supp. Actor: Nick Nolte
ru: Albert Brooks

Supp. Actress: Janet McTeer
ru: Vanessa Redgrave

Director: Martin Scorsese
ru: Steven Spielberg

Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
ru: Drive

Cinematography: Tree of Life
ru: War Horse

Design: Hugo
ru: The Artist

Score: Adventures of Tin Tin
ru: The Artist

Animated Film: Rango
ru: Adventures of Tin Tin

Foreign: A Separation
ru: The Skin I Live In

Documentary: Project Nim
ru: Tabloid

[Big Magilla]

Film: Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud
ru: The Descendants

Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Solider Spy)
ru: Michael Fassbender (Shame)

Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
ru: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Sup. Actor: Max von Sydow (Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud)
ru: Albert Brooks (Drive)

Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
ru: Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Director: Stephen Daldry (Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud)
ru: Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

Screenplay: The Descendants
ru: Midnight in Paris

Cinematography: The Tree of Life
ru: Drive

Design: Hugo
ru: The Artist

Score: The Artist
ru: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Animated: Rango
ru: The Adventures of Tintin

Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
ru: A Separation

Documentary:Project Nim
ru: Tabloid

[Mister Tee]

This ten-day stretch between NY/NBR and the resumption of serious prize-giving has given the season an odd cast. It's as if early Spring temperatures had shot up to 70 degrees, buds had started forth, and then a frost halted the process in its tracks for a few weeks.

But tomorrow we resume, with AFI, Boston, and, most venerable, LA...to be quickly followed by all those second-tier critics' groups, and the three TV-centric awards givers. By next Thursday, we'll have more lists of nominees than anyone could possibly keep straight. It may be we'll see the all-too-frequent winnowing of the field -- maybe The Artist will start winning so many prizes, its curent buzz will harden into inevitability. Maybe one actor or actress from a fairly wide field will so dominate, a front-runner will be established. And maybe the combination of BFCA/Globes/SAG will so sharply limit the field that late January's Oscar nominees will be 90% certain.

Or, maybe not. Two things argue against such gelling. First, this is a year where, so far, consensus is lacking -- certainly on the level we saw over the two years past. The NY Daily News reviews films on a 1-5 star basis. Yesterday, they gave both Young Adult and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 4 stars. The previous week, they did the same for Shame, and, in earlier Fall weeks, they assigned 4 to Moneyball, The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo. Films receiving 5 stars? None. (The last I can remember is The Social Network) This suggests a year where people pretty well LIKE a good batch of films...but they don't LOVE anything. This, by rights, should lead to decently spread-out award results.

The second factor: the late openers. Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud remain under embargoes (give or take David Denby), and a number of other films -- War Horse, Albert Nobbs, In the Land of Blood anf Honey, The Iron Lady -- haven't been rated by a broad enough spectrum of critics for us to know the overall response. (Blogger buzz can be misleading: the actual reviews for Tinker Tailor were well above recent rumor, and the first-day grosses suggest it's a major attraction) This will put a group like the Broadcasters in a real pickle: they live to forecast consensus opinion, but they won't know what consensus opinion IS on several movies prior to their Tuesday nominations. I presume they'll put Extremely Loud and War Horse down, but might later find one or both fall into a pit with previous choices Nine or The Shipping News. SAG, too, will be picking more blindly than usual, which could make them less predictive than customary. Remember, the last year there were alot of late arrivals, 2007, 5 of 20 Oscar acting nominees had not appeared at SAG, and only one best ensemble contender (ultimate winner No Country for Old Men) got a best picture nomination. So, circumstances could be combining nicely to give us a more-interesting-than-usual awards season.

With all that as preamble, what do I see happening in LA tomorrow?

The first question you ask about LA is, which heretofore unmentioned foreign-language performance will pull a win there? It's to the point it's commonplace for at Ieast one to triumph, because LA voters seem to actually believe in the level paying field -- they don't plug in a subtitled contender simply because the pickings are slim in some category. They treat foreign language films exactly as they would Englsh language films, and let the chips fall where they may.

Another thing to wonder about LA: how much power does prominent Times critic Ken Turan have? Because he HATED The Tree of Life, and loved Tinker Tailor and The Artist, for what that's worth.

Okay: my guesses, with one runner-up, since that's what they'll report.

Film: The Descendants
ru: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Actor: Michael Fassbender (Shame)
ru: George Clooney (The Descendants)

Actress: Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
ru: Jeong-hie Yun (Poetry)

Sup. Actor: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
ru: Albert Brooks (Drive)

Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
ru: Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Director: Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
ru: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)

Screenplay: The Descendants
ru: Midnight in Paris

Cinematography: The Tree of Life
ru: Drive

Design: Hugo
ru: The Artist

Score: The Artist
ru: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Animated: The Adventures of TinTin
ru: Rango

Foreign Language Film: Poetry
ru: A Separation

Documentary: Senna
ru: Tabloid