Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

[Sabin]

Is it already over? No. Could it be? Sure.

I mean, we're waiting on The Iron Lady. It's by the director behind Mamma Mia! Could it function as a solid enough vehicle for Meryl Streep? Sure. Could Glenn Close's performance gain enough traction in spite of some mixed reviews in the festival circuit? Absolutely. But we know what Viola Davis' performance is in The Help, and it's absolutely enough to win. Smaller performances have won in the lead categories before, and every single scene she has is pretty much a speech that knocks it out of the park. She's previously nominated, and here's what else she has going for her...

The Help could really win Best Picture.

The winter is looking pretty dismal, and The Help is a film about one community branching out to another in their time of need. Now, no matter how dubious that statement sounds (and it is; The Help is pretty whitewashed), it still resonates right now. It was a surprise smash hit that everyone involved can be proud of, and there weren't a lot of those this past summer. And everyone involved has marketed this film brilliantly and probably won't stop.

It's a likely nominee for Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, and Costume Design...which by definition means that Tate Taylor, the man who directed this film that I have never heard of before will likely get in for Best Director. That's eight very likely nominations, and at the center of this has to be Viola Davis.

It's not over, but I think she's going to look better and better as the season goes on. The Help doesn't look like a big Golden Globes film, but it could catch on like The Hurt Locker or Crash in the final stretch.

[Big Magilla]

I am so sick of this crap. It's bad enough we have prognosticators predicting Oscar winnesr the minute they see a film at Sundance the january, or in some cases, two Januaries, before the rest of us. Critics and Oscar voters read this stuff for so long that by the time the actual awards come along they think there must be something wrong with them if they don't jump on the bandwagon. Now they are predicting winners based on acceptance speeches at pseudo-awards presentations in October, regardless of the quality of the work. Unless I'm mistaken, Jeffrey Wells didn't even like The Help, but now he's predicting Viola Davis will win Best Actress simply becasuse she gives a better speech than Close Close. Here's his commnet from last night:

"Tonight's Hollywood Awards ceremony was the first awards show of the season, and it occured to me early on that the major award recipients -- George Clooney, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer, Bennett Miller, Emanuel Lubezki -- were using this event to try out and refine their acceptance speeches, like a Broadway-bound play playing Boston or Los Angeles. So who fared best?

For most of the show I thought Close was the shit. Her words were eloquent, heartfelt, well chosen. Plus she got a long standing ovation as she walked to the podium. Well loved. But then Davis, glammy costar of The Help and a likely Best Actress nominee, took the mike near the end of the show, and she blew Close out of the water at the end of the show. Calm, sassy, impassioned -- it was easily the best acceptance speech of the night.

A friend tells me that's not enough. It doesn't matter if an acceptance speech is really superb unless it's been captured for broadcast and seen all around. I knew Davis was hitting it right when she began but I was too slow and too stupid to shoot video of her speech right away. I finally picked up the camera toward the end and caught the last 78 seconds' worth. I knew then and there she's going to win the Best Actress Oscar.

George Clooney handled himself with assurance and charm. Candid, amusingly blunt, self-effacing, gracious...the usual one-two-three. And Beau Bridges' introduction of Clooney was choice. Christopher Plummer delivered with class and aplomb. But Quentin Tarantino's introduction of Diablo Cody was the most pizazzy and high-voltage of all. Cody clearly felt he'd oversold her.

By the way: Cinematographer Emanuel Lubezki told me earlier tonight that his next film, he believes, will be for Terrence Malick (again)...the one with Christian Bale."