Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

Post by OscarGuy »

I wish I could influence the race and I know I shouldn't, but at least my choices would be better than the Academy's in most situations. I mean The King's Speech should have never been near the Best Picture race.
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

Post by Sonic Youth »

Big Magilla wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:I don't know if I should be insulted by your comments, Sonic. After all, that's mostly how I built my site and reputation was as an Oscar enthusiast and prognosticator. I've of course branched mostly into film criticism, but I still keep that Oscar-based theme because that's who I am and have been for 15 years now.
He was clearly making a distinciton between your/our site and the "other" guys.
Yes I was, and also Oscar Guy isn't someone trying to influence the race either, unlike Wells or Tom O'Neil or Sasha Stone, et al.
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

Post by Big Magilla »

OscarGuy wrote:I don't know if I should be insulted by your comments, Sonic. After all, that's mostly how I built my site and reputation was as an Oscar enthusiast and prognosticator. I've of course branched mostly into film criticism, but I still keep that Oscar-based theme because that's who I am and have been for 15 years now.
He was clearly making a distinciton between your/our site and the "other" guys.
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

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I don't know if I should be insulted by your comments, Sonic. After all, that's mostly how I built my site and reputation was as an Oscar enthusiast and prognosticator. I've of course branched mostly into film criticism, but I still keep that Oscar-based theme because that's who I am and have been for 15 years now.
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

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OscarGuy wrote:You mentioned you were reading prognogs who were saying War Horse couldn't win because it was too old fashioned and that somehow they were expecting the Oscars to be hip and were going out of their way to project their opinions of what the Academy should be onto the predictions.
No, I didn't say that, because I don't read Oscarprogsters. But I do think that may be the reason for the antipathy for the film, sight unseen. And that may color their predictions and reasoning. On the contrary, I thought they were saying that it could win for the very reasons that they hate about the Oscars.

Anyway, just to sum up my thoughts, prognOstacaters are a pundit class, and like all pundits they want to be correct. So they use crisp, airtight logic with plausible conclusions even when it's much too early in the season for such things. But premises can be flawed and/or reality can throw a curve. We do the same thing over here, but at least we do it for the fun of it. But professional pundits are professional twats. (I'm sure I'm not saying anything revelatory.)

I'm saying this because tonight is the last game of the World Series, and that's foremost on my mind. All the sports pundits are saying the Cardinals will win tonight, just after they nearly lost the Series for good yesterday. They have their reasons, and they sound good. But the thing is, everyone believes the Cardinals want to win because right now everyone WANTS the Cardinals to win. It makes a great story, especially after last nights magnificent come-from-behind win. The thing is, Texas is a better team, but we're forgetting that now because if they win, the narrative isn't as inspiring. It all reminded me of Oscar pundits, with their predictions of Viola Davis winning the Oscar because she makes inspiring speeches.
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

Post by OscarGuy »

You mentioned you were reading prognogs who were saying War Horse couldn't win because it was too old fashioned and that somehow they were expecting the Oscars to be hip and were going out of their way to project their opinions of what the Academy should be onto the predictions. Yet, I've read in other places, I thought earlier in this thread, where some where taking earlyprognogs to task for putting War Horse squarely at #1 on the list of shoo-ins for Best Picture and probably even a win, which is antithetical to your statement, so I'm not sure who all these prognogs are that are putting War Horse on top or who these guys are who are trying not to predict War Horse sight-unseen and go with something more outre.
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Re: Is it already over?

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OscarGuy wrote:Sonic, I think you're right except that the bashing is going out to Oscar prognosticators for placing War Horse number 1 site unseen. So, that kind of rejects your position that they are wanting to be modern instead of old fashioned.
Sorry, I guess it's me. I had a very late night last night.* But I think I lost the thread entirely. Who is doing the bashing? Us, or other Oscar progs?

*But congratulations, OG, on the Cardinals magnificent comeback victory. You're not into baseball, but for the sake of your home state, you should try to be just for these next few days. Any excuse for a potential celebration...
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Re: Is it already over? I'm not so sure.

Post by OscarGuy »

Even sillier, though, is the prediciton that the actor or actress who is likely to give the best speech will win. If that were the case, the list of Oscar past winners would look a lot different than it does.
Meryl Streep would have like 12 Oscars by now if that were the case. :)
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Re: Is it already over?

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It may be true that a lot of the prognosticators don't want War Horse to win because it doesn't appear to be cutting edge enough. That's fair as long as they make it clear that they are advocating against the film for their own reasons, but it is rather short-sighted and silly to suggest that the Academy will not go for something old-fashioned the year after they gave the Oscar to the retro King's Speech. But that's not the argument they are putting forward. What they are saying is that War Horse can't overcome the likelihood that the film will not be screened in time for the New York Film Critics who will start off awards season in late November, which is total nonsense.

1. I can't imagine that the film won't be screened for the New York critics prior to their voting.

2. Whether it is or not, and the film is completely ignored by them, it won't lose credibility in the eyes of Academy members any more than any other film they didn't give their Best Picture award to in years past.

3. War Horse seems more like a populist film than a critics' darling anyway. Unless the film proves to be an unexpected masterpiece or at the very least, better than the competition in most critics' eyes, I don't see many critics' groups voting for it anyway. Sight unseen it seems more like a National Board of Review or Golden Globe kind of movie.

4. Haven't Brokeback Mountain and The Social Network proven for the forseeable future that critics' champions don't pre-determine Oscar wins?

Even sillier, though, is the prediciton that the actor or actress who is likely to give the best speech will win. If that were the case, the list of Oscar past winners would look a lot different than it does.
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Re: Is it already over?

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Sonic, I think you're right except that the bashing is going out to Oscar prognosticators for placing War Horse number 1 site unseen. So, that kind of rejects your position that they are wanting to be modern instead of old fashioned. And I don't know how many of those are also film critics, but being old fashioned isn't apparently that much of a concern for most critics since Super 8 got mostly positive reviews FOR being old fashioned, something I reject since I still feel the film is a rip off of every Spielberg film ever made...and I know what an homage is and while J.J. Abrams may consider this an homage (and have convinced others that's what it is), it still feels like outright theft. When people do homage (think Tarantino), they have to bring something original and inventive to the story, something uniquely theirs, for it to work. And lens flares are not it.
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Re: Is it already over?

Post by Damien »

I saw Beginners about 4 weeks after it was released. Christopher Plummer had been touted by some reviewers as Oscar-worthy. He was charming, but I was surprised at how little he actually he has to do in the film. But Euen McGregor, who I think is not only criminally under-rated but also one of the very best contemporary actors we have, is absolutely wonderful -- it's he who should be getting Oscar buzz.
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Re: Is it already over?

Post by Sonic Youth »

Big Magilla wrote:But it is the self-importance of these self-proclaimed Oscarologists that is driving this nonsense. .
Everyone wants to drive something, it seems. It's like the critics groups and awards organizations pushing their announcement dates earlier and earlier in order to gain an influential position. It would be interesting (or maybe not) to examine how it came to this. I wonder how many of these prognOscarcaters started out with a blog, got a little taste of celebrity and now they're trying to out-compete each other. As for hating War Horse, I can't imagine too many online prognosticators are as retro as Rex Reed. War Horse represents a cinematic dinosaur to them, and as New Media types netcrits probably fancy themselves as hip and contemporary and they want the Oscars to be the same way.
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Re: Is it already over?

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
Sabin, I wouldn't risk money I can't afford to lose on it, because there's always the out-there fluke chance of a Peter Cattaneo/Full Monty nomination. But I would be shocked beyond recognition were The Help to be slated by the directors' branch. It is EXACTLY the kind of corny but successful film that has historically got a best picture nod but been passed up by the directors. Even right now, I can't imagine Tate Taylor slipping in past Alexander Payne, Terence Malick and Bennett Miller, and I think some combination of Woody Allen/Tomas

Alfredson/Spielberg/Fincher/Daldry/Eastwood/Hazawhateverhisnameis will solidify the slate and keep him out. I think The Help can get a best picture nomination, easily, but it would take an extraordinary confluence of events to bring a best picture win (like...I don't know...competing against a movie about gay cowboys).
I'm not saying it will win. I'm not betting money. But I just don't see anything out there that looks vaguely Oscar-ish, and I think it's entirely possible that The Help will just end up looking better and better come Oscar time. Again: could be totally wrong! What I think it has going for it more than anything else is that The Help (and this prediction I absolutely will make right now) is going to win the SAG for Best Ensemble Cast. I would be amazed if it doesn't! Beyond being flush with very talented actors of many different backgrounds and niches, it's the kind of film that makes actors proud to be actors! And films that win the SAG (The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Crash) is a pretty darn good predictor.
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Re: Is it already over?

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VanHelsing wrote:Original BJ, may I know how was Sandy B. in EL&IC? Thank you. :)
Better than in The Blind Side. :P
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