For Your Consideration

For the films of 2011
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Big Magilla
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by Big Magilla »

LOL. If Oscar doesn't bite, maybe the AARP Awards will.
ITALIANO
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by ITALIANO »

Big Magilla wrote:Every year is different, but in some ways resembles a prior year.

Since everything is moving up early this year it may be time for my off-the-wall predictions that sometime come true. Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock, anyone?

This year I'm getting the feeling that we could have a repeat of 1981 when an inspirational drama (Chariots of Fire) was the come-from-behind Best Picture winner. I would say War Horse fits that bill except that War Horse seems to be an early sight-unseen favorite so maybe it will, maybe it won't and if it doesn't, then maybe Extremeely Loud and Incredibly Close will be the one to take it.

1981 was the year in which all the acting winners - Fonda, Hepburn, Gielgud, Stapleton - were well-known, long time screen performers, three of whom had never won before. This year we could see wins for four well-known, long time screen performers, three of whom have never won before, as well.

Christopher Plummer, whose screen career dates back nearly sixty years, could conceivably receive dual nominations - Best Supporitng Actor for Beginners is all but a given, but Best Actor for his one man show, Barrymore, is an outside possibility. Max von Sydow, whose screen career also dates back to the 1950s, is a possible Best Supporting Actor nominee for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Both actors have, like Henry Fonda in 1981, received only one prior Oscar nomination in their long careers. Voters could opt to give the supporting trophy to von Sydow and the lead trophy to Plummer.

Unlikely? Perhaps, but what are the options? Do they really want to give Best Actor to the already rich and powerful enough Clooney, DiCaprio or Pitt or an unknown in Hollywood French actor in a silent movie?

On the distaff side, as they used to say, The Iron Lady's Meryl Streep, who in the last decade has overtaken Katharine Hepburn's nominations record is widely considered overdue for another win, but since these things don't necessarily follow prior years to the letter, she may not be the former winner to pick up another award this year. That honor could go to Vanessa Redgrave for Coreolanus for Best Supporitng Actress, allowing Glenn Close to take home the Best Actress Oscar for Albert Nobbs. For that to happen, though, Streep's Iron Lady will have to be less than is anticipated so that Close's already reviewed, and in some quarters, dismissed, Albert Nobbs performance appears more award-worthy to the voters.

Stay tuned.


I had to read this post twice. As far as predictions go, this is the craziest, most-disconnected-from-reality I've read on this board in the last, I think, five or six years. Entertaining though - science fiction often is.
Big Magilla
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by Big Magilla »

Every year is different, but in some ways resembles a prior year.

Since everything is moving up early this year it may be time for my off-the-wall predictions that sometime come true. Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock, anyone?

This year I'm getting the feeling that we could have a repeat of 1981 when an inspirational drama (Chariots of Fire) was the come-from-behind Best Picture winner. I would say War Horse fits that bill except that War Horse seems to be an early sight-unseen favorite so maybe it will, maybe it won't and if it doesn't, then maybe Extremeely Loud and Incredibly Close will be the one to take it.

1981 was the year in which all the acting winners - Fonda, Hepburn, Gielgud, Stapleton - were well-known, long time screen performers, three of whom had never won before. This year we could see wins for four well-known, long time screen performers, three of whom have never won before, as well.

Christopher Plummer, whose screen career dates back nearly sixty years, could conceivably receive dual nominations - Best Supporitng Actor for Beginners is all but a given, but Best Actor for his one man show, Barrymore, is an outside possibility. Max von Sydow, whose screen career also dates back to the 1950s, is a possible Best Supporting Actor nominee for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Both actors have, like Henry Fonda in 1981, received only one prior Oscar nomination in their long careers. Voters could opt to give the supporting trophy to von Sydow and the lead trophy to Plummer.

Unlikely? Perhaps, but what are the options? Do they really want to give Best Actor to the already rich and powerful enough Clooney, DiCaprio or Pitt or an unknown in Hollywood French actor in a silent movie?

On the distaff side, as they used to say, The Iron Lady's Meryl Streep, who in the last decade has overtaken Katharine Hepburn's nominations record is widely considered overdue for another win, but since these things don't necessarily follow prior years to the letter, she may not be the former winner to pick up another award this year. That honor could go to Vanessa Redgrave for Coreolanus for Best Supporitng Actress, allowing Glenn Close to take home the Best Actress Oscar for Albert Nobbs. For that to happen, though, Streep's Iron Lady will have to be less than is anticipated so that Close's already reviewed, and in some quarters, dismissed, Albert Nobbs performance appears more award-worthy to the voters.

Stay tuned.
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by Sabin »

What they said.

I remember predicting that The Contender would see Joan Allen nab a nomination all year, and quieted these predictions of a Julia Roberts juggernaut. Although I think that Viola Davis is a supporting performer in The Help, her performance is almost entirely emotional speeches. If anything, it is a smart move because now she won't be competing with Octavia Spencer (and Jessica Chastain for whatever performance she gets in for). Also, we don't know if The Iron Lady will prove to be a dud. I haven't seen Mamma Mia!, but I've heard nothing but toxic things about it. Viola Davis has to be considered a front-runner, if not the front-runner.

I would also say that The Help as a film is one of the surest front-runners this year for Best Picture.
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by Mister Tee »

I don't see how Viola Davis can be viewed as anything but the surest nominee so far this year. She was highly praised even by most of the people who loathed her film, and she's in a major sleeper success. Plenty of less-deserving performers have got nominations with that profile.

BJ is totally right, that expecting such a strong candidate to be left out of in favor of performers who remain hypothetical at the moment is the most myopic kind of Oscar prognosticating. No one aside from the younger Olsen girl has received anything like the attention Davis has; assuming that up to four others from the rather thin remaining pack will also get to that level is fantasy. And it amazes me that people who've just experienced disappointment from a can't-miss prospect (Glenn Close) continue to assume Meryl Streep is a certainty -- especially given the track record of her director.

I'd say Davis is also the favorite to win at the moment, though many will have a queasy feeling about her winning for such a divisive film. Granted, anyone who voted for Bullock in The Blind Side would probably have no problem here, but there are others who admire Davis, in general and here, who simply find The Help not the sort of movie that rates Oscars. (Think back to how people passed on Glenn Close, when she was both overdue and gave a breakthrough performance in Fatal Attraction, because the film made them uneasy) Davis' best hope is probably for the field to remain relatively undistinguished, a la 2005 or 2009. If the to-now-unknown Olsen -- or Dunst or Binoche -- win the critics' prrizes, and none of the more mainstream options (Streep, Theron, Mara) rise to prize-level, a widely seen/mostly admired performance like Davis' can slip through.
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by The Original BJ »

OscarGuy wrote:I guess Viola Davis isn't going to pick up a nod this year. With so much strong competition in the lead category, there's little hope for her there.
I'm going to have to side with the bird-in-the-hand rule on this one and argue that Viola Davis is an EXTREMELY likely Best Actress nominee, based on the overall notices for her performance, her past nomination (as well as her respected stage resume), and the film's hit status. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if she were in the race to actually win the trophy either.

I couldn't disagree more that there is little hope for a nomination for Davis -- as for her competition being "strong," well, most of that competition has yet to be released, and until that happens, it's hard to put too much faith in so many of them, sight unseen. (Even the early festival reactions to some of these candidates have been a lot softer than I imagined they would be.) What we DO know is that Davis is the strongest Best Actress candidate we've seen so far, and if you're in that spot by late October, you get nominated.

Of course, the best performance by an actress this year so far is Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy, but obviously Oscar ain't touching that.
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Re: For Your Consideration

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Yes, but with the FYC ads and Davis' known propensity for wanting to be seen as a leading player, not a supporting one, will likely count against that.
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by Reza »

But surely Viola Davis could still get nominated in the supporting category despite being pushed by Disney in the lead category?
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Re: For Your Consideration

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I suspect she'll get the nomination, but probably not the win unless the competition proves less notable than the buzz. Meryl Streep's Iron Lady has yet to be seen. Glenn Close did not get the kind of reviews from those who've seen Albert Nobbs that would have put her out in front. Michelle williams got generally good notices for My Week wiht Marilyn but the film underwhelmed the cirtics in general. Elizabeth Olson, Olivia Colman and the rest at this juncture would probably be happy just to get a nomination. While it still appears sight unseen to be Streep's to lose this year, Davis is the only one thus far who has been in a proven hit, which could help her considereably. Though she might have a better chance in support, her likely absence from that category makes it a wide open race, at least at this early point.
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Re: For Your Consideration

Post by OscarGuy »

I guess Viola Davis isn't going to pick up a nod this year. With so much strong competition in the lead category, there's little hope for her there.
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Big Magilla
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For Your Consideration

Post by Big Magilla »

Disney has just put up a website with what I believe are the first FYC (For Your Consideration) ads of the year.

http://www.disneystudiosawards.com/

Of note:

The War Horse: Best Actor - Jeremy Irvine; Supporting Actors Niels Arestrup, Peter Mullan; Supporting Actress Emily Watson

The Help: Best Actress - Viola Davis, Emma Stone; Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, Bruce Dallas Howard, Allison Janney, Sissy Spacek, Olivia Spencer
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