The Post-Festival Landscape

[flipp525]

With her recent surprise Emmy win, I think Universal is considering mounting a campaign for Melissa McCarthy's steals-the-show turn in the widely (and surprisingly) successful Bridesmaids. Tee, your Best Supporting Actress slate seems kind of dry, so this might be at least worth a passing mention.

I'd also throw in Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris) in the mix for Best Supporting Actor. Midnight in Paris won't make the Best Picture slate without at least one acting nomination.

[ITALIANO]

I'm sorry to make like I'm dismissing your very hard work with a bitchy correction, but it must be said: the winning film at the Toronto festival is Lebanese, not Peruvian.

I understand the confusion. Both countries make stellar coffee.

I'm the one ought to be embarrassed. I swore I checked that somewhere, though not immediately before posting.

Yes, it's Lebanese, and it shouldn't be quickly dismissed by the way. Its title is Where Do We Go Now? and I saw it recently in France - in Arabic, a language I don't know, with subtitles in French, a language I don't know very well, so my opinion of it may change if I see it again in Italy. It's not a great movie, but it's obviously a crowd-pleaser (it's currently at n.9 at the French box-office), and its message of tolerance, plus the fact that it's directed by a (young and beautiful) Arab woman, will probably make it a Best Foreign Film nominee.

Such luck, by the way, won't happen to Italy - our entry this year doesn't have any chance.

I've also seen Carnage and liked it. Good script with good roles for its good cast. Amazing to think that it has been directed by a man in his late 70s - and while this won't be considered one of Polanski's greatest efforts, it's still an intelligent, remarkably fluid film version of a play. All the actors should honestly be considered lead (unlike in Virginia Woolf, both couples are on-screen from beginning to end), but knowing the Academy, it's possible that, since the two women are played by big stars and their roles are showier, the two men could be (wrongly) considered supporting. If this happens and the Supporting Actor field is empty, Christoph Waltz - who's very good in this movie - could get his second nomination, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Mister Tee]

I'm sorry to make like I'm dismissing your very hard work with a bitchy correction, but it must be said: the winning film at the Toronto festival is Lebanese, not Peruvian.

I understand the confusion. Both countries make stellar coffee.

I'm the one ought to be embarrassed. I swore I checked that somewhere, though not immediately before posting.

[Sonic Youth]

I'm sorry to make like I'm dismissing your very hard work with a bitchy correction, but it must be said: the winning film at the Toronto festival is Lebanese, not Peruvian.

I understand the confusion. Both countries make stellar coffee.

[Mister Tee]

Last year, though we didn't fully know it at the time, the weeks of Venice/Telluride/Toronto came pretty close to closing out Oscar season. The two films that ended up being the best picture competition -- The King's Speech and The Social Network -- were both screened in that period. Not only was it instantly clear both would be nominees, their disparate roles in the final battle (critics' choice/Academy-type movie) were set as well. Colin Firth's best actor candidacy was so immediately obvious Bill Maher even made jokes about it, and likely runners-up James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg also had their spots insured. We might not have yet realized that Black Swan would go on to become a $100 million dollar earner, but that Natalie Portman would be a major contender for best actress was patently clear from Venice response. Only that The Fighter's two ultimate supporting winners and the multi-nominated but ultimately prize-less True Grit remained on ice prevented the entire race from being a fait accompli in September.

The good news this year is, that scenario hasn't come close to being replicated. A few films have stood out more than others at the festivals (specifics below), but there was nothing like the instant coronation that greeted last year's favorites. At the other end of the spectrum, last year we saw a long list of hopefuls that, thanks to critical indifference or outright hostility, dropped from contention on the spot. This year there've only been a few such cases -- one doubts we'll be hearing much more about Madonna's or Francis Coppola's latest efforts, and 360 might have trouble even getting released this year. But much of the work on display received more complicated, mixed responses from critics, which leaves their status -- and the race far -- more in flux... especially given the solid list of contenders as yet unscreened, coming our way in November and December.

As I see it, there were two solid-gold winners from the festival circuit. Alexander Payne's The Descendants got extremely strong reviews, reviews that, besides being favorable, suggested audience accessibility, which should make the film a commercial player when it opens at Thanksgiving. The second winner is Moneyball, which actually had mixed buzz from initial Toronto tweeters and bloggers, but ended with a quite strong critical majority, and opened this weekend to (given the arcane subject matter) stellar business. I think both these films are very promising best picture/actor/director/screenplay candidates, even in this new era of perhaps fewer best picture nominees. (And, considering Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio have heavyweight roles upcoming, the Board of Governors is probably starting to dream of an All-People's Sexiest Man Alive best actor slate)

After that, things get murkier, with, as I said, most films getting mixed response. It's entirely possible some of these efforts will overcome detractors or scepticism and forge their way into the race -- at the performance if not best picture level. In my view, these are the films to consider right now:

Tinker,Tailor, Soldier, Spy -- This is the strongest film after the two I mentioned above, and may actually be closer to lock level for a best picture nomination than I think. I'm hesitating primarily because of the undertone of the critical reaction, which had a feel of "admirable but a bit dense and slow". It may bv this is a case of people jumping past critical evaluation to playing commercial/Academy prognosticator -- underestimating audiences' (and voters') capacity to appreciate work that requires concentration. (Many of these same people found Syriana too complicated as well, which says more about them than the film) In spite of this, there seems a good bit of "It's time" feeling around the Gary Oldman performance, so, minimally, that has a good shot of making the list. But I'm leaning toward the film qualifying under film/director/screenplay as well, with the British contingent (the ones who put over Atonement) carrying the day.

The Ides of March -- Critics at Venice were lukewarm at best on this, but American critics at least initially seem more positive, and the film appears to have some commercial appeal. I'd say it's only a middling possibility for a best picture nod, but screenwriting, and acting citations -- for, especially, Ryan Gosling -- appear at least possible.

Contagion -- Reviews for this have been solid though unexceptional -- but I don't think you can rule out an intelligent studio thriller that earns $70-80 million. Granted the rules change might hurt borderline candidates like this, but I say, if The Town was in the conversation last year, Contagion ought to be there this time around.

A Dangerous Method -- Underwhelmed response from critics leaves the period film mostly restricted to art direction/costumes consideration, but it's got two elements with some shot at major notice. First would be Keira Knightley, for a performance that 1) seems borderline as to whether it's lead or supporting and 2) received what could be the working definition of "mixed response". There are those who say she stretches brilliantly; others who view her as way over the top and unbelievable; and yet others who say she's the latter, but in precisely the style that can impress voters into giving out an undeserved nomination. She's definitely in the mix. The film's other possibility, more remote/indirect: Michael Fassbender is clearly recognized as having vaulted to major actor status with his performance in Shame, but many voters may react violently against such a taboo-flaunting film, and instead boost for him for this more conventional work. Is there precedent for chicanery like this? Yes: Dennis Hopper, nominated for Hoosiers, which we all knew was proxy for Blue Velvet.

Shame -- Might as well get to it, since I just brought it up. McQueen's film seems like it'll be an art-house hot-shot, and the extravagant praise Fassbender's received makes him a strong candidate for critics' prizes. Despite this, many bloggers think it'd be mission: impossible to get him onto the Academy short-list (though Emily Watson/Breaking the Waves might show a path for "performance so overwhelming they'll overlook how much they hate the film"). A low-level distributor would have little hope of making that case, but Fox Searchlight -- perhaps feeling its oats after promoting the unlikely Black Swan -- has snapped it up, and will surely give it their best shot. This'll be one of the most interesting trajectories to follow all season.

Albert Nobbs -- Let's be honest: response to Glenn Close's dream project didn't remotely live up to the actress' hopes. People seemed to find the film itself ho-hum, and, while most were respectful of Close's work, nearly everyone was more truly enthusiastic about Janet McTeer's supporting performance. Despite this, Close could still get nominated, simply because of the major effort she's put into mounting and promoting the film, and because, unlike last year, the best actress field isn't a very broad one. But wider acknowledgement (at the writing/directing/picture level) seems out of the question.

Carnage -- It's hard to get a fix on just what critics thought about this one. Tallies showed it one of the best reviewed films at Venice, but the American trades, and the general vibe, suggested an air of disappointment about it. Perhaps that will change when the film arrives stateside. Even at this level, it's a possible contender for screenwriting. If any of its name cast make the nominations list, by common consent it'd be Christoph Waltz -- no doubt to Damien's great delight.

Rampart -- The film succeeded at job one -- it acquired a distributor, and will be released for contention. It also got at least a significant number of folks advocating for Woody Harrelson's lead performance. There remains, though, substantial doubt about the film's overall appeal.

50/50 and Take Shelter -- If there were sleepers in the mix, these were they. I can't really get a good read on how well liked they'll be overall, but there's support for Joseph Gordon-Levitt in the former, and both Michael Shannon and Jessica Chastain in the latter. Chastain has had such a visible year you have to believe there'll be some push for her to get a nomination in recognition of the bulk, and this might be the vehicle best suited for such a push. We'll get answers on these films quite shortly, as they both enter the market this weekend.

The Artist -- This was of course widely screened (and praised) at Cannes back in May, so its status didn't change alot with exposure to more critics. But, in one small way, maybe it did. There's been extravagant award expectation among some bloggers -- some going to the point of suggesting this silent French film could seriously contend for best picture next February. Step one on that journey would have been winning the audience award at Toronto -- the prize that launched Slumdog Millionaire and The King's Speech to Oscar success in recent years. I fully expected the film to nail this award down. It's precisely the sort of unthreatening, crowd-pleasing item that has won over the past decade, and even its international pedigree is a plus, since voters in Toronto have mostly eschewed films that were too American (choosing, for instance, Hotel Rwanda over Sideways). The Artist seemed almost built to take a prize like this...yet it fell to a Peruvian film of which many hadn't evcen heard prior to the announcement. Maybe it means nothing, or maybe -- like Atonement missing at NBR -- it's a significant case of the dog that didn't bark.

My Week with Marilyn -- I mention this film solely because I'd listed it in my earlier post. Subsequently, however, I realized it was not screening at any of these festivals, but rather was being held for the upcoming New York fortnight. So, nothing on it as yet.

All those specifics covered, where does that leave this year's race?

We're in the dark on this new best picture format. We knew how to handicap a five-film race, and did reasonably well at figuring the ten-film field (at least last year). But this mid-range case is a challenge to plot out. If I were looking at a five-film field, I'd feel safe in calling the Descendants and probably Moneyball, with The Artist a quite-possible-but-not-certain tag-along. If I were to expand to ten, I'd quickly throw in The Help, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Midnight in Paris and Tree of Life, with maybe The Ides of March or Contagion hanging around at the periphery. But I have no idea how many of those would have a shot at the now sacred 5%. Nor, of course, do I pretend to know which films will emerge triumphant from that promising late-year list -- Hugo, J. Edgar, War Horse, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Young Adult -- and which will fall into the Nine/Lovely Bones fiasco category. For clarification on that, blessedly, we have some time to wait.

Best actor looks like it'll be a fairly full slate, with Clooney, Pitt and Oldman the heavyweight core of the race. It's entirely possible equivalent big names in upcoming films -- DiCaprio as J. Edgar, Damon in We Bought a Zoo -- will fill out that list. If not, the question is whether the rest of the ballot is filled with second-tier mainstream candidates (like Gosling in Ides of March), off-the-beaten path candidates (Fassbender in Shame, Harrelson in Rampart, Michael Shannon in Take Shelter), or seemingly off-beat but actually reassuringly normal entries like Jean Dujardin in The Artist or Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50. Above all, I'm delighted to say I don't have the slightest instinct who might be the ultimate winner, which is certainly as it should be as we approach October.

The best actress slate is considerably thinner at this point, more dependent on those year-end efforts to fill out the ballot. The blogosphere is trying its best to maintain Glenn Close Career Appreciation enthusiasm, but for Close to actually win at this point would require a triumph of narrative over actual achievement in excess of anything we've seen in my memory. As I said earlier, I think Close still has a shot at nomination, but even at this point I don't see her as a candidate with the strength of Viola Davis in The Help (and, yes, all indications are Disney is campaigning for her as lead) or Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene (unless her film flops entirely). We'll know soon whether Michele Williams joins that list of hopefuls, for her Monroe in My Week with Marilyn. Maybe something from the artier fringe can slip in -- like Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin, or Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia. After that we'll be dealing with the reasonably formidable December crop -- Charlize Theron in Young Adult, Rooney Mara in Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and the blogosphere's updated Sure-Thing, Meryl Streep as The Iron Lady. Yet again, I see no clear favorite, unless Streep transcends her pedestrian director and creates some sort of indelible Thatcher.

Supporting actor seems populated by alot of waifs and strays. Not many of the big ticket items have produced candidates -- though there's some possibility of Jonah Hill in Moneyball, or one of the Brits from Tinker Tailor Solder Spy, and I'd still hold out some hope for Brad Pitt (a possible double nominee this year) for his Tree of Life work. The most talked about folk at the moment are Christopher Plummer in Beginners, Albert Brooks in Drive, Christoph Waltz in Carnage (unless the whole cast is viewed as lead) and Nick Nolte in Warrior -- though that film's near-shocking commercial flame-out probably makes him a deep long shot. Up ahead, we have Kenneth Brangah's Olivier in My Week with Marilyn, Armie Hammer's Clyde Tolson in J. Edgar, Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady, maybe someone from War Horse or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and, odd as it may sound, there's some talk about Patton Oswalt in Young Adult. Am I missing anyone?

With Viola Davis promoted to lead, Octavia Spencer has clear sailing to a supporting actress nod; it's possible someone else from her film (Jessica Chastain?) with be pushed to a mention alongside her. Festival favorites Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus and Shailene Woodley in The Descendants seem strong possibilities for slots; the enthusiastic reaction Janet McTeer got for Albert Nobbs puts her at least in the running; and, if Keira Knightley were to get Academy blessing, this is probably where she'd end up. There's also talk about Berenice Bejo in the Artist -- though I have long-held skepticism about people getting supporting nods for non-English-speaking films -- and a bit about Evan Rachel Wood in The Ides of March. Upcoming? Honestly don't see anybody.

Under directing, you mostly match up the best picture leaders, so Alexander Payne and Bennett Miller, along with newcomer Michel Hazanavicius of The Artist and possibly Tomas Alfredson of Tinker Tailor head the pack. Terence Malick and Woody Allen, on career respect from the branch, are stronger here than they would be for best picture, while The Help and The Ides of March would probably be weaker. And, in the year's last two months, we'll have the march of the name-brands, as Eastwood, Spielberg, Scorsese, Daldry, Fincher, even Reitman try to return to the list.

And that's where we stand...a pleasingly wide open slate that could, dare we hope, lead to an engaging and suspenseful race next February.