Ok. I think it's time to solidify some things. Although the studio will probably choose things differently, of the four main actors of Carnage, which are supporting characters and which are lead.
By order on IMDB, I'd say Waltz and Foster are lead with Winslet and Reilly support, but that could be reversed for all I know as I am not familiar with the source material.
Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
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OscarGuy
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I see these guys as currently viable candidates:
Niels Arestrup, in "War Horse"
Kenneth Branagh, in "My Week with Marilyn"
Nicolas Bro, in "War Horse"
Jim Broadbent, in "The Iron Lady"
Albert Brooks, in "Drive"
Armie Hammer, in "J. Edgar"
Tom Hanks, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Tom Hardy, in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
John Hawkes, in "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Jonah Hill, in "Moneyball"
Thomas Horn, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Jude Law, in "Contagion"
Viggo Mortensen, in "A Dangerous Method"
Nick Nolte, in "Warrior"
Patton Oswalt, in "Young Adult"
Brad Pitt, in "The Tree of Life"
Christopher Plummer, in "Beginners"
Giovanni Ribisi, in "The Rum Diary"
Corey Stoll, in "Midnight in Paris"
Max von Sydow, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Amr Waked, in "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"
Christoph Waltz, in "Carnage"
Although those who realistically stand a good shot of hitting precursor marks I would pare down to Branagh, Brooks, Hammer, Hawkes, Mortensen, Nolte, Plummer, Stoll, von Sydow, Waltz, Horn if he carpetbags, Arestrup & Bro if either is singled out in reviews and likewise for Oswalt.
Niels Arestrup, in "War Horse"
Kenneth Branagh, in "My Week with Marilyn"
Nicolas Bro, in "War Horse"
Jim Broadbent, in "The Iron Lady"
Albert Brooks, in "Drive"
Armie Hammer, in "J. Edgar"
Tom Hanks, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Tom Hardy, in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
John Hawkes, in "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Jonah Hill, in "Moneyball"
Thomas Horn, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Jude Law, in "Contagion"
Viggo Mortensen, in "A Dangerous Method"
Nick Nolte, in "Warrior"
Patton Oswalt, in "Young Adult"
Brad Pitt, in "The Tree of Life"
Christopher Plummer, in "Beginners"
Giovanni Ribisi, in "The Rum Diary"
Corey Stoll, in "Midnight in Paris"
Max von Sydow, in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Amr Waked, in "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"
Christoph Waltz, in "Carnage"
Although those who realistically stand a good shot of hitting precursor marks I would pare down to Branagh, Brooks, Hammer, Hawkes, Mortensen, Nolte, Plummer, Stoll, von Sydow, Waltz, Horn if he carpetbags, Arestrup & Bro if either is singled out in reviews and likewise for Oswalt.
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I saw the War Horse trailer yesterday. It's World War I – The Coffee Table book. You have no idea how beautiful the trenches look when properly lighted and shot. Just imagine a long shot of lone rider on a horse with the most ravishing sunset as background and you get what this movie is I guess.
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I've seen MMMM and I think in a year as strong as this Hawkes will have trouble being nominated. He's just fine, but Olsen's performance and arc eclipses everything. His role doesn't give him the chance to shade in a character - not a fault of the film at all as his character basically functions as an emblem of Martha's anxieties and fears anyway - and screentime-wise he is as marginalised as, if not more than, he was in Winter's Bone. He doesn't stand out in the way that most of his competition (apparently) do.
If Olsen is the shoo-in it looks like she may well be, her nomination will probably be one of the coolest things the Academy has ever done.
If Olsen is the shoo-in it looks like she may well be, her nomination will probably be one of the coolest things the Academy has ever done.
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OscarGuy
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Let me provide a little clarification or at least MY clarification on why people pick well known stars in unseen films to fill out slates, specifically supporting ones. It's very hard to know what a film is going to contain when it first emerges onto the Oscar potential scene. It very much is a case of looking at the cast of a film and pulling out the known names to add to lists to bolster them. I have Hanks down only because I couldn't imagine a lot of the other potential nominees getting in there. Now that some of the more important films are getting screened and we have notices and buzz to drive some supporting contenders, it will be easier to form a picture of the pending race.
If Mortensen is support in A Dangerous Method (since I believe Fassbender is considered lead), he would be a strong contender for a nomination. The caveat of course is that no matter how many times Mortensen has been talked of as a dark horse contender, he's not picked up nominations. John Hawkes broke the glass ceiling and if Martha Marcy May Marlene really hits the indie sweet spot, I can see him getting nominated. Nick Nolte has been getting good notices for Warrior and Sean Penn is out for Tree of Life. I don't think voters appreciate someone bad mouthing the film they are in until after the season is over. Jim Broadbent is getting quite a few mentions for The Iron Lady. Christopher Plummer is a known quantity while Armie Hammer has received some talk. A lot of John C. Reilly's potential for Carnage comes from whether the film is a success or not. The rest is still a bit cloudy to me.
If Mortensen is support in A Dangerous Method (since I believe Fassbender is considered lead), he would be a strong contender for a nomination. The caveat of course is that no matter how many times Mortensen has been talked of as a dark horse contender, he's not picked up nominations. John Hawkes broke the glass ceiling and if Martha Marcy May Marlene really hits the indie sweet spot, I can see him getting nominated. Nick Nolte has been getting good notices for Warrior and Sean Penn is out for Tree of Life. I don't think voters appreciate someone bad mouthing the film they are in until after the season is over. Jim Broadbent is getting quite a few mentions for The Iron Lady. Christopher Plummer is a known quantity while Armie Hammer has received some talk. A lot of John C. Reilly's potential for Carnage comes from whether the film is a success or not. The rest is still a bit cloudy to me.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I am finishing up the novel and I think this could get slew of Oscar nominations if Daldry and Eric Roth do what I think they will do with the material. The novel provides a lot of examples of real people and New York City itself experiencing the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, not just Hanks' son and widow. The boy explores all of New York City in the aftermath of the attacks. The reason is very contrived but it did not matter to me at all as I was experiencing the boy's adventures and his pain, as well as the pain of those he met. The boy strikes me as a very precocious but very vulnerable child who, through his pain, is still able to deliver clever lines. Sort of a much less annoying version of Rene Zellweger's son in Jerry Maguire. And the flashback scenes with the boy and his father and his scenes with his mother are often heartbreaking. We have Daldry's direction, Roth's screenplay, and Chris Menges' camerawork. The production and sets designed by KK Barrett, George Detitta and Peter Rogness (Being John Malkovich, Lost In Translation, Far From Heaven, I Am Legend, Where The Wild Things Are). Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and an adorable twelve year old have the three major roles. We have a three hankie 9/11 story on its tenth anniversary. Of course, I have not seen it, but it sounds like great box office and awards potential.Big Magilla wrote:Tee makes some good points, but I liked The Reader and I liked Daldry's earlier efforts, The Hours (with reservations) and especially Billy Elliott. Both The Hours and The Reader were last minute releases that didn;\'t disappoint in the scheme of things and I don't think Extremely Close will either. Hanks, whose character is seen only in flashbacks, doesn't seem like an Oscar contender to me, but Bullock playing a grieiving widow with a child could well be, though she has zero chance of winning.
The great thing in the world is not so much where we stand, as in what direction we are moving. It's faith in something and enthusiasm for something that makes a life worth living. Oliver Wendell Holmes
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
You were right about Million Dollar Baby, and right now that's good enough for me.Big Magilla wrote
As for War Horse, as I've said before I don't know why other sites are singling it out and I don't care, I just have a hunch about it. I could be all wet, but at this point I'm not ready to climb down off the horse.
"How's the despair?"
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Big Magilla
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Tee makes some good points, but I liked The Reader and I liked Daldry's earlier efforts, The Hours (with reservations) and especially Billy Elliott. Both The Hours and The Reader were last minute releases that didn;\'t disappoint in the scheme of things and I don't think Extremely Close will either. Hanks, whose character is seen only in flashbacks, doesn't seem like an Oscar contender to me, but Bullock playing a grieiving widow with a child could well be, though she has zero chance of winning.
As for War Horse, as I've said before I don't know why other sites are singling it out and I don't care, I just have a hunch about it. I could be all wet, but at this point I'm not ready to climb down off the horse. And what's wrong with Lassie Come Home anyway? Actually, though, I thought the plot sounded more like Au Hasard Balthazar or the last section of Of Human Hearts.
As for War Horse, as I've said before I don't know why other sites are singling it out and I don't care, I just have a hunch about it. I could be all wet, but at this point I'm not ready to climb down off the horse. And what's wrong with Lassie Come Home anyway? Actually, though, I thought the plot sounded more like Au Hasard Balthazar or the last section of Of Human Hearts.
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OscarGuy
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Re: Tee's Streep/Close closing comment. After all, The Reader and The Blind Side weren't poorly reviewed at all. Oh...and look who they beat? Hrmmm.</snark>
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Tee is absolutely correct about War Horse the play -- it's all in the production's spectacle and theatricality, and especially the jaw-dropping impersonation of horses by puppets.Mister Tee wrote:Well, I'll try to throw in a little dyspepsia here.
Has anyone besides me seen the trailer for War Horse? I thought it looked pretty dreary, honestly. As I understand it, the stage show's success is largely based on the blazing theatricality of the staging -- that the base-line story is a sentimental children's book. It's hard to imagine Spielberg getting the high-level critical support for such an effort that he has for his most successful, grown-up best picture contenders. I'll of course wait and see about the reviews, like everyone else, but my expectations are not outsized -- I'd actually fear something more along the Amistad line.
Michael Feingold of the Village Voice accurately likened the narrative of the play to Lassie, Come Home. Interestingly, the same barb was aimed at E.T. So it is possible that Spielberg's professionalism will make audiences connect with War Horse in a big way, just as they did with the earlier film. Anybody who's ever had a pet -- or who just loves animals -- could not help crying by the end of the play. I suspect that Spielberg will ratchet up the sentimentality and the movie will have the same effect, although if that's the case I would also expect some critics to look deeper and be dismissive.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
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Mister Tee
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
Well, I'll try to throw in a little dyspepsia here.
Has anyone besides me seen the trailer for War Horse? I thought it looked pretty dreary, honestly. As I understand it, the stage show's success is largely based on the blazing theatricality of the staging -- that the base-line story is a sentimental children's book. It's hard to imagine Spielberg getting the high-level critical support for such an effort that he has for his most successful, grown-up best picture contenders. I'll of course wait and see about the reviews, like everyone else, but my expectations are not outsized -- I'd actually fear something more along the Amistad line.
And I really don't see why so many are buying into the idea that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is right alongside it for likelihood. For openers, does everyone forget that it's exceedingly rare for the big boppers of Christmas to live up to expectations? Have we lost all memory of Nine and the Lovely Bones, Charlie Wilson's War? Even some that have survived for best picture nominations -- Benjamin Button, The Reader, The Green Mile -- have done so grudgingly and with little hope in the ultimate race. It's a variation on BJ's bird-in-hand theory -- people are apt to dismiss a movie right in front of them (like The Descendants, which got clear best picture level reviews, right down to the emotional appeal level) in favor of some idealized notion of what a late-year film might be.
Plus, I think Daldry's luck has to run out sooner or later. Bob Fosse and Francis Coppola had everything-we-do-gets-nominated runs -- simultaneously -- but ask them how One From the Heart and Star 80 did with Oscar voters. As far as I can see, Daldry was extraordinarily lucky to get his last set of nominations -- only that it was a crap year and Harvey Weinstein shamelessly worked the nursing home circuit for Holocaust nostalgia got such a poorly reviewed and low-earning film onto the slate. I figure you pay for that somewhere down the line, and this'll be the time. (Especially because I don't think Foer is all that great a writer)
May I also say how annoyed I am to see people -- if not here, elsewhere -- pimping for supporting nods for Hanks and Bullock in the film? I know, when you're doing these prior-to-screening predictions, you have to hunt to fill out a slate of supporting contenders. But when you throw big name stars in support like that -- two people who deserve another shot at Oscars when hell freezes over -- you normalize such thinking, and that's how we end up with Matt Damon nominated for Invictus, while notable performances by little-knowns are left by the wayside.
Oh. and my favorite stupid post-Telluride comment from one of the other boards: after seeing Albert Nobbs' somewhat less than great reviews, one person opined "That's it, then: Streep's got it cold now". Umm...when one "absolutely guaranteed to be a top contender" prospect comes up short, shouldn't it make you more dubious about the rest? Nope; all illusions about the future will be clung to.
Has anyone besides me seen the trailer for War Horse? I thought it looked pretty dreary, honestly. As I understand it, the stage show's success is largely based on the blazing theatricality of the staging -- that the base-line story is a sentimental children's book. It's hard to imagine Spielberg getting the high-level critical support for such an effort that he has for his most successful, grown-up best picture contenders. I'll of course wait and see about the reviews, like everyone else, but my expectations are not outsized -- I'd actually fear something more along the Amistad line.
And I really don't see why so many are buying into the idea that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is right alongside it for likelihood. For openers, does everyone forget that it's exceedingly rare for the big boppers of Christmas to live up to expectations? Have we lost all memory of Nine and the Lovely Bones, Charlie Wilson's War? Even some that have survived for best picture nominations -- Benjamin Button, The Reader, The Green Mile -- have done so grudgingly and with little hope in the ultimate race. It's a variation on BJ's bird-in-hand theory -- people are apt to dismiss a movie right in front of them (like The Descendants, which got clear best picture level reviews, right down to the emotional appeal level) in favor of some idealized notion of what a late-year film might be.
Plus, I think Daldry's luck has to run out sooner or later. Bob Fosse and Francis Coppola had everything-we-do-gets-nominated runs -- simultaneously -- but ask them how One From the Heart and Star 80 did with Oscar voters. As far as I can see, Daldry was extraordinarily lucky to get his last set of nominations -- only that it was a crap year and Harvey Weinstein shamelessly worked the nursing home circuit for Holocaust nostalgia got such a poorly reviewed and low-earning film onto the slate. I figure you pay for that somewhere down the line, and this'll be the time. (Especially because I don't think Foer is all that great a writer)
May I also say how annoyed I am to see people -- if not here, elsewhere -- pimping for supporting nods for Hanks and Bullock in the film? I know, when you're doing these prior-to-screening predictions, you have to hunt to fill out a slate of supporting contenders. But when you throw big name stars in support like that -- two people who deserve another shot at Oscars when hell freezes over -- you normalize such thinking, and that's how we end up with Matt Damon nominated for Invictus, while notable performances by little-knowns are left by the wayside.
Oh. and my favorite stupid post-Telluride comment from one of the other boards: after seeing Albert Nobbs' somewhat less than great reviews, one person opined "That's it, then: Streep's got it cold now". Umm...when one "absolutely guaranteed to be a top contender" prospect comes up short, shouldn't it make you more dubious about the rest? Nope; all illusions about the future will be clung to.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I expect Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to be War Horse's closest competition, but basically I have no rational reason for thinking that War Horse will be the one to beat other than that I sometimes have a feeling about these things. I had it with Titanic, I had it with Million Dollar Baby and I had it with Sandra Bullock.
Also there's precdent. In 1997, when Titanic was pretty much expected to be a huge flop, the stage musical Titanic by different writers won the Tony for Best Musical. This year, War Horse, with a theatrical coneption that is different from Spielberg's film, won the Tony for Best Play.
Both War Horse and Extemely Close I expect will be wildly popular emotional heart tuggers. The best that J. Edgar can hope for is that it will be well made, but a heart tugger it isn't going to be and we all know what that extra bit of emotion can do. Just ask the makers of The Social Network who lost to the heart-tugging King's Speech.
Also there's precdent. In 1997, when Titanic was pretty much expected to be a huge flop, the stage musical Titanic by different writers won the Tony for Best Musical. This year, War Horse, with a theatrical coneption that is different from Spielberg's film, won the Tony for Best Play.
Both War Horse and Extemely Close I expect will be wildly popular emotional heart tuggers. The best that J. Edgar can hope for is that it will be well made, but a heart tugger it isn't going to be and we all know what that extra bit of emotion can do. Just ask the makers of The Social Network who lost to the heart-tugging King's Speech.
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
It's got tremendous emotional power. The stage adaptation pretty much will run forever in London (or the close-reopen-close-reopen that the West End is so fond of) and you hear people crying buckets over the story. I don't think it's a lock or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it as a top tier contender.
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I'm curious, Magilla. Why do you have such high expectations of War Horse? I seem to be in the minority on this Board in thinking Spielberg has only gotten better with age, but what about this film specifically?
I'm forced right now to assume that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be in the running if only because of Stephen Daldry's pedigree. He's the most boring director out there IMO, but the combination of Scott Rudin, Saffron Froer, Eric Roth, and Stephen Daldry means it has to be taken some kind of seriously.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Albert Brooks, Drive
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
I'm forced right now to assume that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be in the running if only because of Stephen Daldry's pedigree. He's the most boring director out there IMO, but the combination of Scott Rudin, Saffron Froer, Eric Roth, and Stephen Daldry means it has to be taken some kind of seriously.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Albert Brooks, Drive
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
"How's the despair?"
Re: Possible Acting Nominees - 2011
I'm currently predicting:
ACTOR
George Clooney ... The Descendants
* Leonardo DiCaprio ... J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin ... The Artist
Woody Harrelson ... Rampart
Brad Pitt ... Moneyball
6. Gary Oldman ... Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Michael Shannon ... Take Shelter
Wildcard: Thomas Horn ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
ACTRESS
Glenn Close ... Albert Nobbs
* Keira Knightley ... A Dangerous Method
Rooney Mara ... The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Elizabeth Olsen ... Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep ... The Iron Lady
6. Charlize Theron ... Young Adult
7. Michelle Williams ... My Week with Marilyn
Wildcard: Michelle Yeoh ... The Lady
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Albert Brooks ... Drive
Armie Hammer ... J. Edgar
Nick Nolte ... Warrior
* Christopher Plummer ... Beginners
Corey Stoll ... Midnight in Paris
6. Max von Sydow ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
7. Viggo Mortensen ... A Dangerous Method
Wildcard: Nicolas Bro ... War Horse
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Viola Davis ... The Help
Janet McTeer ... Albert Nobbs
Vanessa Redgrave ... Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer ... The Help
Naomi Watts ... J. Edgar
6. Bérénice Bejo ... The Artist
7. Shailene Woodley ... The Descendants
Wildcard: Jessica Chastain ... Take Shelter
ACTOR
George Clooney ... The Descendants
* Leonardo DiCaprio ... J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin ... The Artist
Woody Harrelson ... Rampart
Brad Pitt ... Moneyball
6. Gary Oldman ... Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Michael Shannon ... Take Shelter
Wildcard: Thomas Horn ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
ACTRESS
Glenn Close ... Albert Nobbs
* Keira Knightley ... A Dangerous Method
Rooney Mara ... The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Elizabeth Olsen ... Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep ... The Iron Lady
6. Charlize Theron ... Young Adult
7. Michelle Williams ... My Week with Marilyn
Wildcard: Michelle Yeoh ... The Lady
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Albert Brooks ... Drive
Armie Hammer ... J. Edgar
Nick Nolte ... Warrior
* Christopher Plummer ... Beginners
Corey Stoll ... Midnight in Paris
6. Max von Sydow ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
7. Viggo Mortensen ... A Dangerous Method
Wildcard: Nicolas Bro ... War Horse
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Viola Davis ... The Help
Janet McTeer ... Albert Nobbs
Vanessa Redgrave ... Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer ... The Help
Naomi Watts ... J. Edgar
6. Bérénice Bejo ... The Artist
7. Shailene Woodley ... The Descendants
Wildcard: Jessica Chastain ... Take Shelter