Possible Acting Nominees - 2011

[OscarGuy]

The response I received from the Academy on the whole motion capture issue is that the animation branch will determine if motion capture should be eligible.

The thing is, a poor reading of the rules for Animated Feature seem to indicate that it's trying to keep something like Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and Gollum out of the competition. Since Tintin is entirely animated (ala Monster House), it will most certainly be eligible. I have very little reason to doubt that Tintin would be ineligible, yet Polar Express and co. were.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Best Animated Feature*
1. Rango
2. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn**
3. Arthur Christmas
4. Happy Feet 2
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Rio
7. Cars
8. Puss in Boots
9. Winnie the Pooh
10. Gnomeo & Juliet
*-Category could feature 3-5 nominees depending on amount of animated features that screen theatrically. indieWIRE is currently predicting 4.
**-“The Adventures of Tintin” may or may not be eligible due to being a motion capture animated film.

Since the creation of the category, has there been a crappier year for animation?

[Reza]

2012 Oscar Predictions
by Peter Knegt (October 11, 2011)

indieWIRE will provide regular updates of our predictions for the 84th Academy Award nominations between now and late January, when the nominations are announced. Each week, the update will be supplemented by a weekly awards-related column, which will often work to provide context for the list provided below.
At this point, it looks like a pretty impressive group of folks could be making the rounds this season. Meryl Streep, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Ryan Gosling, Michelle Williams, Tilda Swinton, Keira Knightley, Leonardo diCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Matt Damon,  Sandra Bullock and Viggo Mortensen are all potentially in the mix for the acting races, while a who’s who of name directors have films speculated to be in contention: Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, David Fincher, Stephen Daldry, Clint Eastwood, Woody Allen, Terrence Malick and Alexander Payne (though, seriously: Where are the women this year?).
The predictions below currently feature a variety of the more discussed Oscar categories and will be expanded to feature the rest as the weeks go on.

Best Picture*
Closest Things To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
Seem Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. War Horse
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Reasonable Possibilities From What We’ve Seen:
5. Moneyball
6. The Help
7. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
8. Midnight in Paris

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Haven’t Seen:
9. J. Edgar
10. We Bought a Zoo

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
11. The Tree of Life
12. The Ides of March
13. Young Adult
14. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
15. Hugo
16. Shame
17. Martha Marcy May Marlene
18. My Week With Marilyn
19. Take Shelter
20. Drive
*-Note that anywhere from 5-10 films can now be nominated in this category. indieWIRE is currently predicting 8.

Best Director
Closest Things To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Seem Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
4. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Reasonable Possibilities:
5. Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
6. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
7. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
8. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
9. Bennett Miller, Moneyball
10. George Clooney, The Ides of March

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
11. David Fincher, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
12. Jason Reitman, Young Adult
13. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
14. Cameron Crowe, We Bought a Zoo
15. Steve McQueen, Shame

Best Actor
Closest Thing To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Seem Likely, But No One’s Seen Yet:
3. Leonardo diCaprio, J. Edgar

Reasonable Possibilities From What We’ve Seen:
4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
5. Michael Fassbender, Shame
6. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. Woody Harrelson, Rampart

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Haven’t Seen:
8. Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
11. Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
12. Christoph Waltz, Carnage
13. Tom Hardy, Warrior

Unknown Young Actors With Lead Roles In The Year’s Two Biggest Oscar Question Marks (Though Will They Actually Campaign Lead?):
14. Thomas Horn, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
15. Jeremy Irvine, War Horse

Best Actress
No One’s Seen Yet, But Who Are We Kidding:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Closest Thing To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
2. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
3. Viola Davis, The Help

Reasonable Possibilities:
4. Glenn Close. Albert Nobbs
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
6. Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
7. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
8. Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
10. Michelle Yeoh, The Lady
11. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
12. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
13. Kristin Scott Thomas, Sarah’s Key
14. Jodie Foster, Carnage
15. Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur

Best Supporting Actor
Closest Things To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

All Reasonable Possibilities In a Really Tough Category To Predict Right Now:
3. Albert Brooks, Drive
4. Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
6. Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
7. Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
8. Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
9.  Benedict Cumberbatch, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10. Nick Nolte, Warrior
11. Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
12. Ezra Miller, We Need To Talk About Kevin
13. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
14. Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
15. Tom Hardy, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Supporting Actress
Closest Thing To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help

Reasonable Possibilities From What We’ve Seen:
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
4. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Haven’t Seen:
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Reasonable Possibilities From The Oeuvre of Jessica Chastain:
6. Jessica Chastain, The Help
7. Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
8. Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
10. Carey Mulligan, Shame
11. Judi Dench, J. Edgar
12. Evan Rachel Wood, The Ides of March
13. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
14. Emily Watson, War Horse
15. Naomi Watts, J. Edgar

Best Original Screenplay
Closest Thing To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
2. Michel Hazanvicius, The Artist

Recent Winners Looking Good To Strike Again (But We Haven’t Seen Their Films Yet)
3. Dustin Lance Black, J. Edgar
4. Diablo Cody, Young Adult

Reasonable Possibilities From What We’ve Seen:
5. Steve McQueen & Abi Morgan, Shame
6. Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
7. Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
8. Drake Doremus & Ben York Jones, Like Crazy

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Will Reiser, 50/50
10. James Ellroy & Oren Moverman, Rampart
11. Abi Morgan, The Iron Lady
12. Mike Mills, Beginners
13. Thomas McCarthy & Joe Tibani, Win Win
14. Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter
15. John Logan, Rango

Best Adapted Screenplay
Closest Things To Locks From What We’ve Seen:
1. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash, The Descendants
2.  Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker, Tailor Soldier Spy

Seem Likely, But No One’s Seen:
3. Eric Roth, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. Richard Curtis & Lee Hall, War Horse

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Have Seen:
5. Aaron Sorkin & Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
6. George Clooney & Grant Heslov, The Ides of March

Reasonable Possibilities From What We Haven’t Seen:
7. Cameron Crowe & Aline Brosh McKenna, We Bought a Zoo
8. Steven Zaillian, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Dark Horses at This Point But We Definitely Never Know:
9. Tate Taylor, The Help
10. Christopher Hampton, A Dangerous Method
11. Roman Polanski & Yasmina Reza, Carnage
12. Rory Kinnear & Lynne Ramsay, We Need To Talk About Kevin
13. Adrian Hodges, My Week With Marilyn
14. John Logan, Hugo
15. Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat & Edgar Wright, The Adventures of Tintin

Best Animated Feature*
1. Rango
2. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn**
3. Arthur Christmas
4. Happy Feet 2
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Rio
7. Cars
8. Puss in Boots
9. Winnie the Pooh
10. Gnomeo & Juliet
*-Category could feature 3-5 nominees depending on amount of animated features that screen theatrically. indieWIRE is currently predicting 4.
**-“The Adventures of Tintin” may or may not be eligible due to being a motion capture animated film.

Best Foreign Language Film*
1. Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)
2. War Is Declared (France)
3. A Separation (Iran)
4. In Darkness (Poland)
5. Miss Bala (Mexico)
6. Le Havre (Finland)
7. Footnote (Israel)
8. Happy Happy (Norway)
9. Pina (Germany)
10. War of Flowers (China)
*-Notoriously difficult to predict category that currently only features announced official submissions. Predictions will be updated as new submissions are announced.

Best Documentary Feature*
1. Senna
2. Project Nim
3. Hell and Back Again
4. The Interrupters
5. Buck
6. Page One: A Year Inside The New York Times
7. Into The Abyss
8. Tabloid
9. Undefeated
10. We Were Here
*-Also a notoriously difficult to predict category, and one with dozens of viable contenders not listed here.

Best Cinematography
1. The Artist
2. The Tree of Life
3. War Horse
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5. J. Edgar
6. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
7. Hugo
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II
10. Moneyball

Best Film Editing
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
4. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. J. Edgar
7. The Descendants
8. Moneyball
9. Drive
10. Contagion

Best Art Direction
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5. J. Edgar
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. My Week With Marilyn
8. Jane Eyre
9. The Help
10. Captain America: The First Avenger

Best Costume Design
1. The Artist
2. Jane Eyre
3. W.E.
4. My Week With Marilyn
5. The Help
6. War Horse
7. J. Edgar
8. Hugo
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10. Captain America: The First Avenger

Best Original Score
1. War Horse
2. Rango
3. The Artist
4. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. The Help
8. Moneyball
9. Jane Eyre
10. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

[Big Magilla]

Von Sydow does tend to domiante the trailer. A supporting actor race between Christopher Plummer and Von Sydow would be most interesting.

[Sabin]

Jeffrey Wells Says...


I spoke last night to a guy who caught a research screening of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close last Sunday night at Leows' Lincoln Square (B'way at 68th). And he agrees with Kris Tapley's guy that Max Von Sydow's wordless performance as Thomas Horn's grandfather "will certainly get an Oscar nomination, perhaps the award itself."

And he has a slight dispute with Stu Van Airsdale's guy about the opening with "falling bodies, crushing thuds, and other vividly horrifying reminders of the initial scene at the World Trade Center." My guy's dominant impression is "an obliquely falling body in a white suit. If this wasn't a 9/11 film, it could easily be mistaken for a Cirque Du Soleil routine."

"One surprising thing about the film," he adds, "is that James Gandolfini, credited in both the trailer and the poster, has had his role entirely cut. John Goodman's role is reduced as well, adding up to a few short scenes." I don't know how he'd know that Goodman's role has been reduced unless he's read a draft of Eric Roth's script or whatever. I forgot to interrogate about this.

"And as for all those folks that pointed out that there's snow on the ground in a few scenes in the trailer, it's important to note that the film takes place a few years after 9/11; those scenes aren't meant to reflect 9/11." But of course the trailer, despite the MD80 thing, is looking to evoke precisely that.

[ksrymy]

If he does get nominated, it will be because Albert Brooks is playing such an against-type character in Drive. I personally think Bryan Cranston did a better job in support in that film.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Di Caprio surely looks great (the aging makeup looks like a pretty solid job and it's going to be mentioned in that race),

I wonder if the movie will show Hoover in a dress or Tolson in "Vivian Vance" drag? I'm doubtful though...don't think Eastwood does camp, especially after Paint Your Wagon.

Taken from Wikipedia:
J. Edgar has engendered speculation as to how Hoover and Tolson's presumed homosexuality will be portrayed on-screen. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Eastwood was asked if the script "addresses reports by former FBI employees that Hoover was a cross-dresser and perhaps a closeted homosexual". Eastwood seemed to indicate not, responding that he was drawn to the script because it "didn't quite go down that road".

In response, screenwriter Black assured LGBT-interest website AfterElton.com that there was no truth to the notion that his script had been "de-gayed". "To think that somehow you’re going to make a movie about somebody like J. Edgar and you’re not going to learn what’s in his heart, that’s just not going to happen in a script that I write." Black suggested that the WSJ interviewer conflated homosexuality and transvestism and that Eastwood was only indicating that the film would not include cross-dressing.

[Reza]

Aside from Nobbs, I saw The Eye of the Storm, a terrific Auzzie film with Geoffrey Rush, Charlotte Rampling and Judy Davis. If the Academy needs to parcel out a "foreign" acting nomination this year it should be for Rampling who is long overdue for a nom. Though, I'm not sure if the film will be released in Los Angeles in 2011.[/i].

Rampling getting her first Oscar nod..................from your lips to God's ears !!!

[dbensics]

What else did you see? Do you think that Glenn Close will even receive a nomination? Or is the film too dull to even begin to register?

Sabin, I only saw two films at TIFF as I live in Toronto and was not really "doing" the Festival.

Aside from Nobbs, I saw The Eye of the Storm, a terrific Auzzie film with Geoffrey Rush, Charlotte Rampling and Judy Davis. If the Academy needs to parcel out a "foreign" acting nomination this year it should be for Rampling who is long overdue for a nom. Though, I'm not sure if the film will be released in Los Angeles in 2011.

Yes, Close and Janet McTeer are deserving of nominations as it stands now but if the field gets crowded I think they could be vulnerable...we'll have to wait and see.

The film is just ok, definitely not worthy of a Best Picture or Best Director nomination.

Di Caprio surely looks great (the aging makeup looks like a pretty solid job and it's going to be mentioned in that race),

I wonder if the movie will show Hoover in a dress or Tolson in "Vivian Vance" drag? I'm doubtful though...don't think Eastwood does camp, especially after Paint Your Wagon.

[HarryGoldfarb]

The "J. Edgar" trailer is out... Di Caprio surely looks great (the aging makeup looks like a pretty solid job and it's going to be mentioned in that race), not so sure about Hammer (well, he have a "big moment" pretty much ala Andrew Garfield in "The Social Network"). An instant problem I had with DiCaprio: his voice... it has beome so recognizable/noticeable that it's hard to forget you're watching him. Maybe it has something to do with his accent... A lot of early buzz about Naomi Watts was created but from the trailer the real contender for a Best Suppoorting Actress nod seems to be Judi Dench. There's a big emphasis on her... We can't rely on a trailer but it looks pretty fine...

[Sabin]

What else did you see?

Do you think that Glenn Close will even receive a nomination? Or is the film too dull to even begin to register?

[dbensics]

I saw Alfred Nobbs at Toronto and it's strictly ho-hum - a WASP Yentl.

[Big Magilla]

Olsen, yes, right now I have her on my evolving short list with Willliams, Streep and Close with Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method) and Charlize Theron (young Adult) vying for the fifth slot, but it's still early.

My Life With Marilyn is told from the standpoint of Olivier's assistant played by Eddie Redmayne and focuses on the conflicts between Monroe and Olivier (Kenneth Branagh). Curiously the film has no wiriting credits listed on IMDb. but is probably based on his memoirs. I would also expect Judi Dench to come up with a few bon mots as Sybil Thorndike who was quite witty in the film and was reportedly even wittier in real life. Director Simon Curtis (Elizabeth McGovern's husband) directed Dench to an Emmy nomination for Cranford.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote

Sabin wrote
If Michelle Williams is any good in My Week with Marilyn, she could very likely end up winning. The film is likely going to contain a scene where she wants to be left alone with her sadness that audiences will unconsciously (or consciously) associate with her grief over the death of Heath Ledger.

What "sadness" might that be? The film She was newly married ot Arthur Miller at the time, was co-producer of The Prince and the Showgirl along with Olivier, who also directed, and stole the film out from under him. I know IMDb. lists it as a drama, but it seems more likely to be a comedy or comedy-drama. She might well win, but I don't think a sad scene will be the deciding factor".

Like there isn't going to be some scene where Marilyn can't handle the pressure around her and gives some speech about how she just would like to be left alone sometimes?

I don't know. I could be wrong. I'm not as familiar with her life as you are. But if it is a film essentially that exists as a glimpse into Marilyn Monroe's life, I'd imagine there will be a scene that draws parallels between her eventual death of an overdose. Something that has very sad parallels with Michelle Williams' life as well.

My friend A.A. Dowd who writes for Time Out Chicago has seen Elisabeth Olsen's film says she gives the best performance of the year that he has seen, that the film is uncommonly riveting, but it will be something very difficult for voters to sit through. Because Best Actress is usually somewhat sparsely populated, she could still sneak in.

[Big Magilla]

On the surface The Lady sounds like an Oscar magnet, but its reviews out of Toronto have been polite at best. The Guardian gave it a negative review and the Hollywood Reporter called it "pedsestrian". It's being distributed by the virtually unknown Cohen Media Co. whose only brush with Oscar was Frozen River which they produced but did not distribute - Sony classics handled the distribution. I'd say it's going ot be an uphill battle to get the film noticed let alone positioned for major Oscars.