Mister Tee wrote:Here's how it'll be done. Very soon, Oscar bloggers (Kris Tapley, Nate Rogers, the folks at Indie Wire), who can't seem wait for movies to open/be seen, will start making their Early Predictions. They will, as always, choose from the highest profile productions (of which an adaptation of a theatre phenomenon by a recent Oscar winner is obviously one). They'll assign Hugh Jackman the leading actor spot. Then they'll be looking to fill out the supporting slots. But, since true supporting contenders tend to be less obvious sight unseen (depending on, you know, actual achievement rather than pre-screening buzz), these bloggers will fill the slots with recognizable names playing anything less than their film's central role -- to wit, Russell Crowe. People will bandy hs and similar names about enough that everyone will take it for granted these people are prime contenders. The Broadcast Critics will include them on that key first list of nominees, and, all too likely, SAG will follow along (seeing how, with a mid-December deadline, they'll have barely had time to see half the movies available). All of which sets up a nomination before Academy voters have even opened up their screeners.
Yes, well, this is certainly a realistic depiction of how things go in this era of internet. Of course, when I see this board going collectively crazy for a movie before seeing it - and it's usually a musical - I usually smile indulgently. I knew that Nine would have been a flop in cinemas even before I learned that they were going to actually make it into a movie. And, as some may remember, I was the only one here, how shall I put it, not to be completely convinced that Dreamgirls would win 20 Oscars. Still, even in this case, hype worked - it brought Best Supporting Actress to a nice girl with a big voice but no acting talent. Jennifer Hudson had won her Oscar long before the movie opened.
In the same way Les Miserables will start winning Oscars - or at least getting nominations - very soon. My instinct - but it's just a feeling - is that Les Miserables (good or not good - its director for example is a solid professional who till now hasn't shown the kind of energy one usually associates with this kind of movie) will get lots of nominations, in any kind of technical category. Best Picture - if they keep these rules - is also very, very possible. And then, but only if it IS good, it will get one or even two acting nods and, on the big night, will will a reasonable number of awards.
There is a difference between Les Miserables and Dreamgirls - one that will be completely ignored in America as it has been completely ignored in this thread (it will be different in Europe). Les Miserables is based on an important book by an important French writer called Victor Hugo. Not many people read this novel nowadays - and for example I, unlike my parents, haven't - but this isn't the point. If even just a small percentage of the epic power, the gravitas, the depth of thought so typical of Hugo are preserved in the movie, then we'll have something that the Academy will feel compelled to respect, and probably honor.