Les Miserables

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:55 am

OscarGuy wrote:I don't get the "Arkin as a Supporting Actor nominee" discussion. He's decent in Argo, but every one of the trapped Americans is better, as is John Goodman, who I would see as more deserving of a nomination than Arkin.

I don't think Tommy Lee Jones is a two-Oscar kind of actor. I think his win for The Fugitive almost two decades ago will be it for him. These aren't the days of Jason Robards anymore. Of course, if Crowe is as bad as some are saying (I thought the brief inclusion of his singing in the most recent trailer was terrible), then I'm a bit stymied as to who could win. There's small support for two other actors to sneak in this year, Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild and James D'Arcy in Hitchcock. While I'm not certain either will be nominated, I could see both dominating the critics awards this year (which will be starting this week and next, believe it or not).


The other day a friend asked me my thoughts on who would be Oscar-nominated this year. I mentioned Arkin in Argo, and her response was akin to "SERIOUSLY?" I basically chalk up his candidacy to the fact that a movie like Argo generally gets an acting nomination, and the veteran Oscar-winner in a comic relief part seems like the strongest bait. I'd be shocked to see him in win contention though.

John Goodman seems like he has the potential to get a body-of-work nomination, for both his overall career, and his films this year. I'd rate Flight more likely to get him the nod, simply because his handful of scenes are so strongly built around the colorfulness of his character.

I don't get the resistance you guys have to Tommy Lee Jones as a possible winner. He's got a scene-stealing part with both laughs and noble heroism in a movie that's definitely going to pick up a lot of nominations. Given that his first Oscar was nearly two decades ago, and he's done some strong work since then, I don't see why a second supporting trophy would be so surprising career-wise. (Not making a prediction, just arguing he seems as likely a winner as anyone.)

And, having seen Hitchcock, there is ZERO chance James D'Arcy dominates the critics' prizes for a part which is basically an introductory scene with no where to go.

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby dws1982 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:50 am

Sabin wrote:Django Unchained is going to be Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit to date. People who have read the script love it. It's brilliantly counter-programmed against Les Miserables among others. It's the hip choice for the holiday season. Black people are going to see it. People like my parents and grandparents who were won over by Inglourious Basterds are going to see it (Basterds got QT in the club for real). And black audiences are going to see it. The industry loves a hit and Django Unchained is going to provide them with one.

Tarantino screened his cut of Django for Weinstein recently. Apparently Weinstein wasn't at all happy with it--especially the 3h 12 run time--and is insisting on a new, shorter cut. It could end up cut to pieces.

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:17 am

I don't get the "Arkin as a Supporting Actor nominee" discussion. He's decent in Argo, but every one of the trapped Americans is better, as is John Goodman, who I would see as more deserving of a nomination than Arkin.

I don't think Tommy Lee Jones is a two-Oscar kind of actor. I think his win for The Fugitive almost two decades ago will be it for him. These aren't the days of Jason Robards anymore. Of course, if Crowe is as bad as some are saying (I thought the brief inclusion of his singing in the most recent trailer was terrible), then I'm a bit stymied as to who could win. There's small support for two other actors to sneak in this year, Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild and James D'Arcy in Hitchcock. While I'm not certain either will be nominated, I could see both dominating the critics awards this year (which will be starting this week and next, believe it or not).
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby rudeboy » Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:42 am

Fair enough! Although in a tight year, Tommy Lee Jones + loveable curmudgeon + hammy gestures seems to me like a possible tie-breaker. But as I say, I've yet to see it.

I've only seen Arkin of the actors who seem to have a fighting chance and his role seems a little throwaway fluff to prevail, although its a damn sight more substantial than his Oscar-winner. Bryan Cranston was best in show for me.

James Spader? He's a hot and cold actor for me, but I like him enough at his best to hope for a breakthrough and he's certainly paid his dues. Does he have enough to do?

Back on Les Miserables, Eddie Redmayne has been mentioned in a few tweets so I guess he's a potential spoiler. More positive reactions than Russell Crowe so far. Of course, this could be because in the past Redmayne has always seemed a little lightweight onscreen. In the book Marius is fairly drab, but he does have a couple of potential scene-stealing moments in the show, so maybe he's a contender.

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:30 am

I don't think it has anything to do with a Spielberg curse. I think DDL is winning his third Best Actor trophy for a Spielberg film this year. Tommy Lee Jones is good in Lincoln except for a handful of hammy gestures. It's possible that he could win. I know I personally don't think he's the best in the ensemble although he certainly is the most Oscar-viable. I'm just a bit dubious that it's going to happen. More than being a scene-stealer, he's the curmudgeonly heart, and I think he needed a little more to play with to be a contender to win.

Then again, I'm basing this on expectation of Leonardo DiCaprio taking it as well as formidable opponents in Philip Seymour Hoffman, Alan Arkin, and Robert De Niro.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby rudeboy » Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:02 am

Sabin wrote:Tommy Lee Jones isn't winning.


Lincoln won't be released in my part of the world until early next year but I thought his performance was considered something of a frontrunner? Scene-stealing from a much-loved veteran who is certainly an actor who would be widely seen as worthy of two Oscars... sounds like a winning formula to me, and this silly 'Spielberg curse' is nothing more than his actors always having been up against the wrong competition at the wrong time. Do you really think he's out of it?

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:14 pm

Desplat is the most exciting composer today. He's creating some vibrant collaborations across the board. I didn't think anybody could work with Wes Anderson but Mark Mothersbaugh but his work on Fantastic Mr. Fox and Moonrise Kingdom is exemplary. I wish Moonrise Kingdom would get in but with its over abundance of pop music, it's not likely. You can find his score strung together as one epic piece online.
I think the nominees will be Alexandre Desplat for something, an undeserving nomination for John William' Lincoln score (better than his Year's Worst work on War Horse), Mychael Danna's totally drab work on Life of Pi (a wasted opportunity for a great piece of music!), Danny Elfman's great SLP score (possibly rooting too hard for that one), and Behn Zeitlin's Beasts score which is likely to win.

Jeffrey Wells spoke to a Les Miz hater in a post I found interesting:
As anyone might have predicted, the Gold Derby-ites (a.k.a., the Goldies) have tumbled for Les Miserables, pushing it ahead of Argo and Silver Linings to lead the Best Picture Oscar race. I had Les Miz at the top back in mid-October but Pete Hammond and Peter Travers, among others, have now ditched Argo for Tom Hooper's period operetta. Argo is now the proverbial ex-girlfriend -- hurt, abandoned.

A friend's wife has said that Les Miz ranks at the top of her personal weep-o-meter, and that's often the name of the game when it comes to calibrating Best Picture winners. And then this HuffPost rave by longtime producer Jay Weston...it's obvious what's happening. It's probably a lock to win.

But there's a small cabal of Les Miz dissers out there, and I've just spoken to one. He's a seasoned producer who tends toward generosity and has been around the block and loved, incidentally, Alan Parker's Evita -- the last mainstream Hollywood translation of an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical and the last to deliver, in Hooper's words, a musical in "through-sung" form.

"I don't care what people are saying -- this is an almost objectively dreadful movie," the producer told me a few minutes ago. "And I know there's a major effort underway but I don't think it has a chance of winning the Best Picture Oscar. Anne Hathaway is fucking terrific and guaranteed to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, but the early screenings have been stacked with fans of the stage musical version and it was a little embarassing at times, I thought, when somebody would start applauding after a song and nobody would join in.

"On stage Les Miserables seemed large because you're using your imagination, but the film feels very small in a way," he continuted. "Perhaps the biggest problem is the singing is apart from Hathaway...Hugh Jackman is mezzo mezzo and Russell Crowe is awful...he looks the part but it just doesn't fly. And the early CG looks like a cartoon."

An assessment of the here-and-now by TheWrap's Steve Pond contains elements of what I'm describing and reporting.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:40 pm

Sabin wrote:And now with Zero Dark Thirty getting good notices, it could end up pulling in quite a few as well. Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, and Sound Effects add up to 9. It might miss out on one of them. The absurdly prolific composer Alexandre Desplat did the score for this film as well as Argo and Moonrise Kingdom, all three of which he could conceivably get in for. The question is which film.


Well, he seems quite proud of his work on ZERO DARK THIRTY and really impressed with the film overall:

"I know it sounds like an action film, but it’s more like a war movie in the tradition of Akira Kurosawa. Powerful and archaic."

“It’s the best thing that she has ever done. It’s fabulous; she’s a master director. She’s a genius, it’s a film that’s incredible.”

http://collider.com/zero-dark-thirty-al ... ew/209954/

We shall see if the Academy agrees with him.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:38 pm

I have no idea why I wrote that in that moment. I think Argo is the most likely candidate to win Film Editing. I meant to write Costume Design and Sound Mixing. But both are possible nominations for Argo as well.

Django Unchained is going to be Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit to date. People who have read the script love it. It's brilliantly counter-programmed against Les Miserables among others. It's the hip choice for the holiday season. Black people are going to see it. People like my parents and grandparents who were won over by Inglourious Basterds are going to see it (Basterds got QT in the club for real). And black audiences are going to see it. The industry loves a hit and Django Unchained is going to provide them with one.

It seems to me that there are seven movies in the running. The five we were predicting were:
Ben Affleck's Argo
Tom Hooper's Les Miserables
Ang Lee's Life of Pi
David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg's Lincoln

And soon Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty and Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained will join them. I think they're all getting in for Best Picture but Best Director is a different story. It's going to be hard for me to separate my own feelings from my predictions, but Life of Pi might not be as strong as some think in this field. Also, while Lincoln is definitely getting into this field with its positive reviews (shy of glowing, I think), I don't think it's much of a contender in several categories. It's not going to win for Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, or Sound Mixing. Possibly Best Makeup. Up against Les Miserables, Costume Design is a huge long shot. One would think a Steven Spielberg movie would have a chance at one of these. It's not too late for Tony Kushner's screenplay to vie for Original Screenplay over Adaptation, where it's sure to lose. He has a better shot in the Original Screenplay category and could muster a win, but it's Lincoln. I doubt it. Milk is the only precedent. Sally Field isn't winning. Tommy Lee Jones isn't winning. I suppose it's best chances are Picture, Director, and especially Daniel Day-Lewis. If Steven Spielberg's Lincoln was truly a winner, I think it would play a stronger contender in the above categories.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:18 pm

Sabin wrote:Argo could come in at 8 also. It could get in for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound Mixing. I think it's going to miss out on Film Editing and Sound Mixing.


Just out of curiosity, why do you think Argo will miss in Film Editing? That final airport set piece seems like it would be catnip for the editors. I rate it one of the most likely nominations for the movie.

I'd totally forgotten about Django Unchained, which seems like the biggest wild card of the season, simply because Tarantino films tend to either hit big with nominations or miss entirely. But there's another of this season's big-ticket entries from a previously-Oscared director.

I guess I'm less inclined than many (not necessarily here, but especially in the rest of the blogosphere) to declare any movie a clear frontrunner at this point, especially when it looks like there will be a lot of enthusiasm out there for a lot of movies. Which is to say, I'm hopeful that Les Mis will live up to expectations, but don't at all see it as a clear sweeper any more than I saw Lincoln as one last week (which was the current Internet-approved meme now instantly forgotten in the wake of this Les Mis screening.)

But I will say this -- if Tom Hooper wins again, someone should be on hand to cleanse the salt from David Fincher's wounds.

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:22 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Last year I was predicting a Titanic-like box-office/Oscar surge for War Horse. Wrong year, wrong film, but I've got an even stronger hunch about Les Miz. I predict Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and all the technical awards it's nominated for as well as Best Song for the newly composed "Suddenly", a haul of 10 or 11.


I said this film should not be underestimated the moment I saw that first amazing trailer. I have never seen the stage play and am no fan of Hooper, but it just seemed like a film that would hit all the right Oscar notes -- beloved source material (both musical and book), historical setting, fantastic production values, amazing performances, crowd and critic pleasing. Of course, all these same notes have been hit by LINCOLN, but the reason LES MISERABLES will seal the deal is how emotionally powerful the film (potentially) is. I know the stage play has several weepy moments, and knowing Hooper's ability to wring tears from even the most mundane moments (he read a damn speech people, why the hell are you crying?) I figure people are going to fall in love with this film.

While LINCOLN is doing very well with multiplex audiences (particularly older folks), I do not think they are connecting with it emotionally the way they need to for it to be a real contender. I saw it over the weekend in a packed theatre with a very responsive audience. However, at the end I could not hear anyone crying when Lincoln was shot. I think after more than two hours of some interesting history and great performances, people really admired the film and enjoyed it, but it did not move them the way they may have expected. Also, while I agree with the magazine headlines calling Daniel Day-Lewis the greatest living actor (though I might qualify that with "one of") and he further earns that accolade with this performance, he has two things going against him for a win. 1: Not only would this be his third lead actor statue, but he just recently won his second. 2: He has to contend with the Spielberg curse. I do not think there is some conspiracy by Academy voters to not award any actor in a Spielberg movie, but somehow they have just not had any luck in the past 40+ years. If anyone could break this curse it could be Daniel Day-Lewis, but he will be facing very stiff competition from Hugh Jackman.

As for the chances of LES MISERABLES, I think it will break-down like this:

Wins
Best Picture
Actor - Hugh Jackman
Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway
Set
Costume
Sound
Song
Make-up

Nominations
Supporting Actress - Samantha Barks (loses to Anne Hathaway)
Director (loses to ZERO DARK THIRTY)
Editing (loses to ZERO DARK THIRTY)
Cinematography (loses to LIFE OF PI)

Other possible nominations include Supporting Actor - Russell Crowe, Sound Editing, and Adapted Screenplay.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:13 pm

While 2012 is proving to be a year where the heavies did not disappoint, it's also proving to be a year where they pull in a ton of nominations. Last year, Hugo pulled in 11 nominations and The Artist pulled in 10. And from there, down to six for War Horse (did that happen?) and Moneyball.

Currently, I see Les Miserables pulling in 12 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, and Sound Mixing. And it's possible that Samantha Banks gets in as well b/c the field in Supporting Actress is so weak. Which would put Les Miz at 13. Maybe it ends up with Sound Effects too b/c it's a musical replete with canon fire, although with the film being recorded live that puts a little water on that one. Regardless, I think it's the nomination leader.

Lincoln could give it a run for its money though. Right now, I have Lincoln for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score (not deserving, but mandatory), Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, and Makeup. That's 11. It could sneak in for Cinematography, but it's such an ungainly looking film made up mostly of interiors. And Janusz has a checkered past with the Academy this past decade. Then there's Sound Mixing. I suppose it could get a nomination for that as well, but I'm not calling it just yet. The high is 13, but I'm predicting 11.

I have some mixed feelings about Life of Pi and where it's going to end up on Oscar morning. Everyone seems to be predicting that it's a winner destined for several nominations. I'll say this: it could be nominated for 9, for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Effects, and Visual Effects. I'm starting to wonder if it's going to fade a little bit and miss out on Director, Screenplay, and Film Editing.

Argo could come in at 8 also. It could get in for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound Mixing. I think it's going to miss out on Film Editing and Sound Mixing.

I have a best case morning for Silver Linings Playbook predicted with nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing for 8, but it could miss out on Original Score pretty easily.

Django Unchained could come in with 10 for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, and Sound Effects, but I think it's more likely to miss out on Director, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, and Sound Effects.

And now with Zero Dark Thirty getting good notices, it could end up pulling in quite a few as well. Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, and Sound Effects add up to 9. It might miss out on one of them. The absurdly prolific composer Alexandre Desplat did the score for this film as well as Argo and Moonrise Kingdom, all three of which he could conceivably get in for. The question is which film.
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Re: Les Miserables

Postby mlrg » Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:57 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Last year I was predicting a Titanic-like box-office/Oscar surge for War Horse. Wrong year, wrong film, but I've got an even stronger hunch about Les Miz. I predict Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and all the technical awards it's nominated for as well as Best Song for the newly composed "Suddenly", a haul of 10 or 11.


I think we'll have a BP/BD split with Spielberg taking best director. DDL could also take best actor. As for the rest, I agree with you

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:50 pm

Last year I was predicting a Titanic-like box-office/Oscar surge for War Horse. Wrong year, wrong film, but I've got an even stronger hunch about Les Miz. I predict Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and all the technical awards it's nominated for as well as Best Song for the newly composed "Suddenly", a haul of 10 or 11.

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Re: Les Miserables

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:53 am

First Review: “Les Miserables” Comes to Movies with Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway
Roger Friedman

Cheers and a standing ovation this afternoon at the first screening of the film version of “Les Miserables.” Tom Hooper, Oscar winner for The King’s Speech, has made a thrilling, sensational epic of the legendary Broadway show. This now becomes the “Titanic” of this year’s awards season, the epic film to beat. Hugh Jackman is a triumph as Jean Valjean, Anne Hathaway sings the heck out of the film’s big numbers, and Samantha Barks just about steals the film. Russell Crowe makes for a solid Javert. And the many supporting players, especially Aaron Tveit, Eddie Redmayne and Amanda Seyfried, are top notch.

Universal Pictures with help from Peggy Siegal put on two blockbuster screenings this afternoon and this evening at Lincoln Center’s Alice Tully Hall. Anne Hathaway, husband Adam Schulman, and Anne’s parents Gerry and Kate sat right in front of me. It was the second time this week that Anne, who plays Fantine, sat down and watched the film all the way through. Hooper gives her the first of his many signature closeups as she sings “I Dreamed a Dream” and brings down the house. As Fantine, Hathaway breathes life into the tortured waif whose saga spurs Jean Valjean through the post-French Revolution years and student uprisings of he 1830s. She will be a Best Supporting Actress nominee. And with any luck she’ll sing on the Oscars.

Jackman and co-star Crowe were not present tonight, but Hathaway, Redmayne, Barks and director Hooper sat for a Q&A with Columbia film professor Annette Insdorf. We learned that there was no lipsynching–everything was sung live, and you can feel it. Barks and Tveit, however, are the Voices with a capital V in this film. There is no denying their accomplishment in this inordinately well cast film.

The other pair who stand out are Helena Bonham Carter and Sacha Baron Cohen, straight out of Tim Burton’s film of “Sweeney Todd.” (“Les Miz” diehards won’t like this, but much of this show is influenced, ahem, by “Sweeney Todd” and Stephen Sondheim.) HBC and SBC are absolutely hilarious and wily together. They also get to sing “Master of the House,” the comic number with loads of nods to “More Hot Pies” from the other musical. As Cossette’s guardians, and parents of Eponine (Barks), they are indelible fun.

And then there’s Hugh Jackman. He’ll be nominated for Best Actor and will likely win. The movie hangs on him, and he carries it from beginning to end. It’s his best work ever, the pinnacle for him as he combines his musical and dramatic talents. Hooper said in the Q&A he wouldn’t have made the movie if Jackman didn’t exist, and he’s right. This is the role of a lifetime, like Robert Goulet in “Camelot.” Wolverine may have to break out in song in his next film.

Tom Hooper steered this ship, and it’s a massive cruise liner. The thing Hooper does so well is bring history to life–whether it’s John Adams or Queen Elizabeth I or the stuttering King George. In the “John Adams” miniseries, there’s a great breakfast scene in which John and Abigail Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and Benjamin Franklin all get together in Paris. It’s as if we’re eavesdropping on these famous but inaccessible people. In “Les Miz,” Hooper pulls off just this trick. The canvas is broad but the characters are intimate and so well drawn that you feel you know them, and their French revolt, by the time the end comes.

I went to the 25th anniversday show of “Les Miz” at the O2 Arena in London a couple of years ago. People from around the world are devoted to this show. These armies of “Les Miz” fans will not be disappointed by this film. Something tells me they will see it three and four times.

http://www.showbiz411.com/2012/11/23/fi ... e-hathaway
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