OscarGuy wrote:I don't get the "Arkin as a Supporting Actor nominee" discussion. He's decent in Argo, but every one of the trapped Americans is better, as is John Goodman, who I would see as more deserving of a nomination than Arkin.
I don't think Tommy Lee Jones is a two-Oscar kind of actor. I think his win for The Fugitive almost two decades ago will be it for him. These aren't the days of Jason Robards anymore. Of course, if Crowe is as bad as some are saying (I thought the brief inclusion of his singing in the most recent trailer was terrible), then I'm a bit stymied as to who could win. There's small support for two other actors to sneak in this year, Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild and James D'Arcy in Hitchcock. While I'm not certain either will be nominated, I could see both dominating the critics awards this year (which will be starting this week and next, believe it or not).
The other day a friend asked me my thoughts on who would be Oscar-nominated this year. I mentioned Arkin in Argo, and her response was akin to "SERIOUSLY?" I basically chalk up his candidacy to the fact that a movie like Argo generally gets an acting nomination, and the veteran Oscar-winner in a comic relief part seems like the strongest bait. I'd be shocked to see him in win contention though.
John Goodman seems like he has the potential to get a body-of-work nomination, for both his overall career, and his films this year. I'd rate Flight more likely to get him the nod, simply because his handful of scenes are so strongly built around the colorfulness of his character.
I don't get the resistance you guys have to Tommy Lee Jones as a possible winner. He's got a scene-stealing part with both laughs and noble heroism in a movie that's definitely going to pick up a lot of nominations. Given that his first Oscar was nearly two decades ago, and he's done some strong work since then, I don't see why a second supporting trophy would be so surprising career-wise. (Not making a prediction, just arguing he seems as likely a winner as anyone.)
And, having seen Hitchcock, there is ZERO chance James D'Arcy dominates the critics' prizes for a part which is basically an introductory scene with no where to go.