2012 Box-Office

[rolotomasi99]

Also, in answer to your question, rolo, my anticipated blockbuster is (of course) The Hobbit, but I'm also very much looking forward to The Dark Knight Rises, Prometheus, Skyfall, and Brave.

You clearly have excellent taste in films.

Are you excited about SKYFALL because you love all James Bond films, or because you think Sam Mendes will do a particularly good job? I absolutely loved CASINO ROYALE, even though I am not really a fan of James Bond. I was so looking forward to QUANTUM OF SOLACE, but was as disappointed as everyone else seemed to be. I think Mendes is actually a better director than folks give him credit for. It will be interesting to see how he does with a big budget action film.

[MovieWes]

One last posting, lol.

Another reason why I think a lot of people are rejecting The Amazing Spider-Man (at least the online haters) is that while Spider-Man 3 was bad, it wasn't so horrible that they needed to start over from scratch. They could have easily made a great fourth film and gotten the franchise back on track. They also ended Peter and Mary Jane's story on a fairly negative note, which makes this reboot seem even more unnecessary since the first set of films feels unfinished.

Of course, considering that the villains in Sam Raimi's Spider-Man 4 were going to be Vulture and Black Cat (who was to be retconned as something called "Vultress"), the fourth film could have ended up being worse than Spider-Man 3. Of course, we will never know now. The Lizard is a much better (and more well-known) villain anyway. It's just a shame that Dylan Baker never got his shot.

Also, in answer to your question, rolo, my anticipated blockbuster is (of course) The Hobbit, but I'm also very much looking forward to The Dark Knight Rises, Prometheus, Skyfall, and Brave.

[MovieWes]

I think it will be big enough, but there will definitely be a sense of threat removed from the adventures because you know you're dealing with a protagonist who survives.

Yes, the main protagonist lives, but those who haven't read the books won't know whether all the dwarves survive. And the filmmakers are going to make sure that we get to know and care about those characters as well.

And don't forget that everyone knew ahead of time that Anakin Skywalker was going to become Darth Vader and that Obi-wan Kenobi was going to survive the Star Wars prequels. That (and the fact that they all sucked) didn't stop those films from being massive hits.

[MovieWes]

From what I've been able to gather, Smaug will be dealt with in the second film while the Necromancer will be the main antagonist in the first film. I believe that the split will occur either in Mirkwood or when the company arrives in Laketown via the barrels. I guess it's also possible that it could be split after Bilbo's escape from Gollum's cave, although that's pretty early in the book and would mean that the second film would have A LOT of ground to cover.

However, a deceptive shot in the trailer -- the one that shows the One Ring in the foreground -- shows Bilbo in the spiders' lair, but tries to make it seem like it is Gollum's cave. If you look closely, you can see that Bilbo is standing in a dark forest with spider webs all over the place.

Also, some of those shots of Gandalf in Dol Guldur take place before the events of the main plot. It is when Gandalf finds a half-mad Thrain, Thorin's grandfather, and gets the map and key from him. The "creature" that Gandalf is fighting is Thrain.

[OscarGuy]

Little is known about the movie structures at this point, but since we didn't get any glimpse of smaug or his lair in the trailer, I'm guessing it will be the second film. Also, the trailer makes me believe that our prediction that the second film would deal with the necromancer in Mirkwood may not come to fruition.

[rolotomasi99]

I also know several people who've read the Hobbit, but haven't read Lord of the Rings.

Me, for example. I sure hope Peter Jackson does an amazing job with Smaug. That whole battle will be epic in 3D. Does anyone know if he will be in the first movie or the second?

[Sabin]

I think it will be big enough, but there will definitely be a sense of threat removed from the adventures because you know you're dealing with a protagonist who survives.

[OscarGuy]

I would reject the claim that The Hobbit is less widely read than Lord of the Rings. Hobbit was wildly popular and I remember reading it before I read Lord of the Rings. I also know several people who've read the Hobbit, but either haven't read Lord of the Rings or haven't been able to get through it because it's a more challenging read. I'd say that because of the popularity in my childhood of the animated hobbit film, there is a higher degree of familiarity with it than with the Lord of the Rings (at least before the trilogy of films was released). A lot depends on how dark in tone the new film is. Since the book is ostensibly a children's story, if they keep it light enough for youngsters to enjoy, then it could have a whole secondary audience. However, the trailer suggests that it's going to be dark on the level of LOTR, which suggests parents may not bring their kids.

[Damien]

There's actually an actor named Taylor KITSCH? Why not Harold Crap? Louis B. Mayer and Henry WIllson are turning over in their graves.

[rolotomasi99]

All very good points MovieWes.

It seems odd to bet big on Taylor Kitsch. They should have at least tested him out with known franchises and big name co-stars like they are doing with Jeremy Renner. With AVATAR people were going for James Cameron, so it did not matter that no one knew who Sam Worthington is.

Your point about THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN is absolutely correct. It is similar to how poorly X-MEN: FIRST CLASS did. Despite having the best reviews and imdb score of any of the X-Men movies, it still made less than $150 m. I blame the bad feelings left over from the wretched WOLVERINE. X-MEN 3 was pretty bad too, but WOLVERINE just left most people completely done with the whole franchise. Even if the new Spidey film is great, it does feel like a re-hash of the first film.

As for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES and THE HOBBIT, they will definitely be in a race for the top of the box-office. THE DARK KNIGHT RISES has the advantage of the late July release date which was so favorable to THE DARK KNIGHT and THE DEATHLY HALLOWS. Unlike those two films, though, it faces very light competition before or after its release. Also, much like THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, it is the final entry in Nolan's Batman trilogy (like you said MovieWes). Nolan is the only director to helm three Batman films, and with the one-two punch of THE DARK KNIGHT and INCEPTION he has since become a star director with an avid fanbase.

THE HOBBIT is also helmed by a star director, but his star has been tarnished since the high of the Oscar glory THE RETURN OF THE KING brought. KING KONG was viewed with indifference by audiences, and THE LOVELY BONES was savaged by the critics. However, this is Jackson returning to what made him a star, so I expect audiences and critics to be forgiving. The film will be released during a competitive holiday season, going up against BREAKING DAWN, SKYFALL, LES MISERABLES, DJANGO UNCHAINED, THE GREAT GATSBY, WORLD WAR Z, and a few others. In the end, though, THE HOBBIT will have the 3D surcharge advantage, and I am assuming 3D in the hands of a master like Jackson will look amazing.

I am curious MovieWes, what blockbuster movies are you looking forward to? For me it is THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE HOBBIT, THE HUNGER GAMES, BRAVE, and PROMETHEUS. Those are the only big budget films I would even consider buying a ticket for. All the rest I might check out on DVD, but they are not worth the price or the hassle of the crowds to see on the big screen.

[MovieWes]

I'm actually not sure what the highest grossing movie of 2012 is going to be. I'm torn between The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. I could honestly see The Hobbit going as high as $600 million, but I decided to play it conservatively. The book is not quite as popular as the LOTR trilogy, although it is still very popular. I am pretty certain that it is at least going to match the adjusted gross of Return of the King. I also don't think that The Dark Knight Rises is going to reach the same heights as the last film for a couple of reasons: A) The Dark Knight had the curiosity factor of Heath Ledger's final performance and B) the two biggest Batman films, both adjusted and non-adjusted for inflation, feature Batman's most famous arch-nemesis, the Joker. I think that there is something about pairing Batman and the Joker that gets people interested. Then again, it is the final film in Nolan's Batman trilogy, so it has that going for it.

The difference between Battleship and Transformers is that the former is based on a board game and the latter is based on one of the biggest toy licenses of all-time. While the board game is popular, nobody really ever asked for a movie and it doesn't even seem to capture the spirit of the game. Transformers was the basis of a popular Saturday morning cartoon and an animated film with a massive cult following.

I don't really know a whole lot about John Carter except that it is based on Edgar Rice Burroughs' Princess of Mars and the marketing hasn't been all that strong so far. Disney is placing it in the same weekend frame that they dropped Alice in Wonderland a couple years ago, but it lacks the star power and brand recognition that that film had. I can't see it making more than Rise of the Planet of the Apes honestly.

I'd also like to comment on The Amazing Spider-Man, which is one of the films I'm most curious about in terms of box-office. It seems to me that a lot of people are rejecting it due to the fact that it's a reboot. Also, while the last 3 films in the franchise were massive box-office successes, Spider-Man 3 left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. Will people be interested in shelling out their hard earned money on something that basically looks like a remake of a movie that came out only 10 years ago? I'm thinking that it should at least be as big as the Star Trek reboot, but I have a hard time seeing this one matching the gross of Spider-Man 3. If audiences like it well enough, however, then the sequel should be a bigger hit that's more in line with the original 3 films. They did make a smart choice by using a villain that hadn't been utilized in the other films, though.

[rolotomasi99]

I hope everyone who is interested in the box office will post their predix for at least top ten of the year.

I was particularly interested in what you thought MovieWes since you correctly predicted AVATAR was going to become the highest grossing film ever.

It seems we mostly agree on the top ten. The fact that you do not have BATTLESHIP in your top 15 means you clearly think it is going to be a bomb like GREEN LANTERN. I thought so too until I saw the most recent trailer. The amount of destruction and bombast reminded me so much of TRANSFORMERS, I just figured it would appeal to much of the same fanbase.

Some folks are saying JOHN CARTER is going to be the next AVATAR, but you and I seem to agree that it will not even pass $200 m. It just reminds me too much of COWBOYS AND ALIENS in its mixed genres. Plus, Taylor Kitsch may be a wonderful piece of eye candy, but he is no star. Then again, I said the same thing about Sam Worthington and clearly audiences disagree.

What I think will be really interesting is to see three films in the top ten with female leads (BREAKING DAWN, BRAVE, and THE HUNGER GAMES). Two out of three of those female lead roles are action focused. Then you have strong female characters from THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE AVENGERS, PROMETHEUS, SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN and HANSEL AND GRETAL: WITCH HUNTERS. 2012 looks like it could be quite revolutionary.

Also, my future husband Jeremy Renner really gets to shine this year. With MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 doing well, THE AVENGERS set to be one of the biggest films of the year, and him taking over the Jason Bourne franchise (not to mention a kick-ass sounding take on the Hansel and Gretal story), Renner is certainly poised to be a big star. Hopefully audiences will respond better to him than they have to Ryan Reynolds.

[MovieWes]

My predictions

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $510 million
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $490 million
3. The Avengers - $325 million
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 - $315 million
5. Brave - $275 million
6. The Amazing Spider-Man - $260 million
7. The Hunger Games - $210 million
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $195 million
9. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $180 million
10. Skyfall - $175 million
11. Men in Black 3 - $170 million
12. John Carter - $170 million
13. Prometheus - $165 million
14. Snow White and the Huntsman - $150 million
15. The Bourne Legacy - $145 million

[rolotomasi99]

2012 Box-Office

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $500 m
2. The Hobbit - $425 m
3. The Avengers - $350 m
4. The Amazing Spider-man - $325 m
5. Breaking Dawn - $275 m
6. Brave - $250 m
7. Men In Black 3 - $200 m
8. The Hunger Games - $200 m
9. Battleship - $175 m
10. John Carter - $175 m

$175 m
Skyfall
Madagascar 3
Ice Age 4
Wrath Of The Titans

$150 m
The Bourne Legacy
GI Joe 2
The Expendables 2
The Lorax
I Hate You, Dad
Rise Of The Guardians

$125 m
Prometheus
Jack The Giant Killer
Ghost Rider 2
Hotel Transylvania
The Mysterious Island
Dark Shadows
World War Z

$100 m
This Means War
Titanic
Frankenweenie
Hansel And Gretel: Witch Hunters
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
Snow White And The Huntsman
Scary Movie 5
Django Unchained
Finding Nemo
Hunter Killer
Ouija
Neighborhood Watch
Argo
What To Expect When You’re Expecting
Les Miserables
The Great Gatsby
Gangster Squad