2012 Box-Office

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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by Franz Ferdinand »

What is going on here? No commentary on Hunger Games and its massive debut? How it beats all Harry Potters and Twilights when we take out the midnight grosses? The strong second weekend? There are March and non-sequel records afoot!
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

I think it's more along the lines that the summer is so packed with content that running films against each other isn't typically a benefit and with a number of big blockbusters showing up in the early part of the year recently, studios see an opportunity to spread the wealth throughout the year and avoid too much direct competition (which proved to be a major negative at the end of 2011).
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by MovieWes »

I know that Hollywood has been slowly been moving the summer movie season up for the past few years, but this is ridiculous. This year March and April looks like they belong in the summer, with a big event picture coming out every weekend starting with The Lorax this past weekend. In the coming weekends, we have John Carter, 21 Jump Street, The Hunger Games, Mirror Mirror, Wrath of the Titans, Titanic 3D, and American Reunion, all of which could gross more than $100 million. The last 2 weeks of April look kind of sparse, although the Farrelly Brothers' The Three Stooges, Nicholas Stoller's The Five-Year Engagement, and Aardman's The Pirates! Band of Misfits could be modest box-office successes (although I certainly hope that Stooges is a flop).
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by spearss91 »

"THIS MEANS WAR" movie is box office hit....When i watched its trailer than i feel it is looks like the triangle love story...


I am planning to watch this movie...
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

As I understand it, This Means War is only playing previews tonight. I don't think it's playing Wed or Thurs and then re-opens Friday. At least that's how I understood it. They didn't think they could compete with The Vow opening last weekend, though they could have probably made more money had they.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

For whatever reason, THIS MEANS WAR is opening on Tuesday. It seems some moron thought this movie would be a perfect date night film for Valentine’s Day. I guess they figured it had action for the guys and romance for the ladies. However, while almost all action films have romantic subplots, there are not that many examples of successful action romantic comedies. In fact, the most recent examples of this genre are KNIGHT AND DAY and SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD. Both these films were major flops, failing to grab either demographic they were hoping for. THIS MEANS WAR also has to deal with the fact that the two male leads are stars who may be on the rise, but neither one has successfully opened a film on their own. Witherspoon was once a powerful draw for romantic comedies, but her star has since faded. Also, the film faces major competition from both genres. THE VOW is dominating women’s attention, and SAFE HOUSE has men’s attention. Neither group will be all that interested in a film opening on a Tuesday. From its opening on Tuesday to its first Sunday, the film will probably make $40 m, and its total will be around $90 m.

The original GHOST RIDER was a surprise hit. Considering the character has never had as wide of appeal as Batman or Spider-man, its $45 m opening was quite impressive. However, it failed to secure the usual total gross three times its opening. I am not sure if this is just because the opening was so front-loaded from anticipation, or word-of-mouth was toxic. I guess we shall soon see based on how this sequel performs. From the trailers it appears the more cartoonish tone of the original is gone, and a darker, Euro-action style (think WANTED) is in its place. Perhaps this will be an improvement on the original. The film faces competition for action seeking audiences from THIS MEANS WAR, SAFE HOUSE, and THE PHANTOM MENACE. However, this is a holiday weekend, and the next two weekends offer up little to no competition. I see a $40 m opening and a total around $120 m.

The other film opening in more than 1,000 theatres this weekend is THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY. It is written but not directed by Miyazaki, but most still consider it a Miyazaki film. It seems more in the young children’s realm of PONYO than the all-ages SPIRITED AWAY. This is the widest opening for a Miyazaki film, but I doubt it will be able to find a wide audience. It faces competition from THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND from last weekend, and THE LORAX in two more weekends. However, it may still be able to find an audience from a combination of Miyazaki’s general fan base and adventurous parents who want to expose their kids to more than the usual family fare. I see a $5 m opening and possibly a $20 m total.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND is the first big budget film release of 2012. The movie is a sequel to JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH which in 2008 was the most successful live action 3D releases. However, that was back when 3D was still rather novel to most audiences. THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND no longer can rely on the unique 3D experience its predecessor offered. Josh Hutcherson is certainly a bigger star now than he was in 2008, and he is joined by tween favorite Vanessa Hudgens and the ubiquitous Dwayne Johnson. Considering there is little to no competition for family audiences I think the film has the best chance of opening at number one (although all four wide releases this weekend have a good shot). I think its chances would be stronger if it was not going up against another 3D F/X extravaganza, but it will still have a good shot at the top spot. I see a $30 m opening and $100 m total.

THE PHANTOM MENACE also has a good shot at the top spot. Oddly, despite its notorious reputation as the most hated film in the Star Wars series, it is the most well reviewed film of all four wide releases this weekend. Still, most people have a very negative feeling about the movie and its many loathed moments (Jar Jar Binks, pod racing, little Anakin, etc.), yet I still think it will have a strong opening and likely beat THE LION KING as the most profitable 3D re-release. Similar to that animated film, its opening will be around $30 m and its total around $100 m.

2011 was not a good year for Ryan Reynolds. His big comic book franchise was an expensive flop and much ridiculed by critics and fanboys alike. THE CHANGE UP was one of the few gross out comedies of the summer to flop. It is very clear audiences are just not that into him as a leading man. Perhaps that is why he is not even pictured in the one poster I saw for SAFE HOUSE. It seems the marketing is focusing on the ever popular Denzel Washington. It seems Denzel is brought in to usher in the next generation of straight white leading men. He was saddled with holding Chris Pine's hand in UNSTOPPABLE, but here it looks like he is having fun playing the anti-hero against Reynolds' more clear cut good guy. It will be interesting to see if any film will finally allow Reynolds to break through. I just do not sense it will be this one. Washington guarantees a good opening around $25 m and a total around $75 m.

I really thought THE VOW was the latest Nicholas Spark adaptation, but I just found out I am not lone in that misconception. Apparently the studios releasing the film are delighted with people's confusion. The silly plot just seems like something Sparks would come up with, and it probably helps that the leads were in the two most successful Sparks films. With ONE FOR THE MONEY and BIG MIRACLE being ignored, women will probably be quite happy to have a little romance in theatres. I can easily see a $25 m opening and with Valentine's Day around the corner a $90 m total is very possible.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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Ah, Super Bowl weekend. The perfect time for studios to dump their smaller mainstream films, and for Oscar films to earn back the cash spent on their expensive campaigns. This Super Bowl weekend is unusual in that all three wide releases have received favorable reviews from critics.

CHRONICLE is most likely going to find itself on top. It is one of the many found-footage films being released this year, however it might be the only one critics actually recommend. The found-footage trope is usually most popular with horror films, though more action oriented films like CLOVERFIELD have been quite successful. The reviews for CHRONICLE mention several impressive action sequences which utilize the found-footage style well. While many folks will be glued to their TVs this Sunday, enough teens will check out the film to give a strong opening. If the audiences share the critics’ love, the film could avoid the usual steep second weekend falls these types of movies see. I imagine a $20 m opening and a $45 m total.

Daniel Radcliffe has made other films during his many years making the Harry Potter series, but THE WOMAN IN BLACK is being presented as the first test of Radcliffe’s viability as a star outside his mega-franchise. Of course this puts way too much pressure on this tiny little horror flick. While ghost stories are making a comeback as folks lose interest in the torture porn genre, a period piece ghost story rarely produces any hits. THE OTHERS is the only film comparable to THE WOMAN IN BLACK which has found major box-office success. I doubt Radcliffe’s film will be able to match Kidman’s haunted house flick, but it may be able to get close to the surprise success of INSIDIOUS. I think its opening weekend will not quite reach $15 m, and the film will end its run around $45 m.

THE BIG MIRACLE is the film I am having the toughest time pinning down. When I first heard about the film (at one point called EVERYBODY LOVES WHALES), I thought it was a romantic comedy between the John Krasinski and Drew Barrymore characters. It might still have romantic elements, but you certainly do not see any of them in the trailer. It is one of those amazingly true and uplifting stories, which certainly can prove successful, but I am just not sure there is a big enough audience interested in this particular story to make it a big success. I think it could see a $10 m opening and possibly a $40 m total.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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It seems small action-y films are doing better than expected in the usually dreary January (except HAYWIRE). Well, this weekend sees two more opening, plus an action-y romantic comedy. However, I will be most interested in seeing what movies receive bounces from their Oscar nominations. HUGO leads with the most nominations and THE ARTIST is seen as the Best Picture front runner, but something tells me their bounces will be slight. THE ARTIST failed to gain much last weekend from its Golden Globes win, and HUGO has been out for awhile and already had a wide release. THE DESCENDANTS is going for a major wide release, but I doubt it will make much of a difference either. Everyone who wanted to see MONEYBALL in theatres already has, and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, THE HELP, and THE TREE OF LIFE have been out on DVD for awhile. WAR HORSE might benefit slightly from its Best Picture nomination, but the film which will earn the largest post-nomination gross will probably be EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. There are many people who probably were just not interested in the movie that will check it out just to see what the hell makes it Best Picture worthy. Many people will dislike it, but (just like the Academy) there will be enough people who absolutely love it and tell their co-workers, family, church members to go see it. I think it will make around $50 m, possibly more if Max Von Sydow wins an Oscar.

Who would have thought an almost 60 year old Irish actor known for playing powerful dramatic parts would become a major action star in the U.S.? THE GREY looks like a more action packed version of THE EDGE (an underrated film in my opinion). The plot is basically a bunch of guys are stranded and they have to fight bad weather and mean wolves to survive. TAKEN was a huge surprise hit, while UNKNOWN was a minor hit. I figure THE GREY will be closer to the latter. I see an opening right below $20 m and right around $60 m.

I am not sure how Sam Worthington became a huge star. I know most action stars are not expected to be great actors, but they usually have some sort of charisma. Worthington always looks like he is about to fall asleep. He has starred in three major action films, but they all were going to make money no matter who was cast in it. MAN ON A LEDGE will be the first real test of Worthington’s star appeal. The plot is ridiculous, but it seems like an easy film for folks to like. If it were not facing so much heavy competition from other action-y films, I would say it could be a minor hit. As it is, though, I think it will make around $15 m this weekend and $40 m altogether.

Given how popular Janet Evanovich novels are, I am surprised none of them have been made into films before. From the trailer, it seems ONE FOR THE MONEY is basically THE BOUNTY HUNTER with the gender roles reversed. Also, instead of America’s sweetheart Jennifer Aniston, we have one of the most inexplicably loathed female stars Katharine Heigl. Instead of charming ruffian Gerard Butler, we have hot D-list movie and TV star Jason O’Mara. Despite having very little competition for rom-com loving audiences, I doubt this is going to be even a minor hit like THE BOUNTY HUNTER. I see a $15 m opening and $50 m total if it is lucky.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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The first two weekends have given us number one films which exceeded most people’s expectations. Both have been smaller films with very specific audiences as opposed to major releases which need to have broad appeal. This weekend sees three wide releases which are slightly higher profiles, but are still minor releases. All three are actions films centered on unconventional leads (two star women, and the third is comprised of a mostly unknown black male cast). The next few weeks will provide us with a large offering of smaller action flicks. It will be interesting to see which ones rise above the pack.

The fourth entry in the UNDERWORLD series will undoubtedly be number one. Much like another long running supernatural action series headlined by a female lead, RESIDENT EVIL, this series has survived on a steady but small audience. There have been some fluctuations in each film’s total grosses, but each film has been able to make a profit due to small budgets. The third film saw its box-office shrink due to the absences of its main star, Kate Beckinsale. They rectified the situation for this film, but it will be interesting to see if fans still care at this point or have moved on. Given the number of action films in theatres to choose from right now, I think its opening weekend will be within the series norm despite the inflated 3D prices. I expect a $25 m opening and $60 m total.

I am all for more woman starring in action films (as more than just the love interest), but many of them have been just horrible. Luckily, HAYWIRE has been described as the thinking person’s action film. Steven Soderbergh impressed me with his quiet and realistic take on the pandemic horror genre. The film was both a critical and box-office success, and I am hoping his take on the action genre will find praise and a large audience. Two female centric action films from last year (HANNA and COLOMBIANA) did relatively well for their small budgets and lack of star power. The studio is taking a risk by having the lead be played by a complete unknown and novice actor like Gina Carano. Hopefully the eclectic ensemble of B list stars will be enough to get butts in seats for the first weekend, and then word of mouth can propel it to a profitable finish. Perhaps a $15 m opening and a $55 m total.

I am very interested to see how REDTAILS does with audiences. George Lucas had to pretty much finance the entire film himself since major studios figured it had little chance of commercial success in relation to its large budget (around $100 m from what I have read). From the trailers it seems the film will be filled with strong effects and battle scenes, however, a compelling story and interesting characters will determine its success. Lucas has been framing this as both an action flick and an important civil rights story, but it seems like combining those two aspects will limit rather than broaden its audience. Also, if Lucas really insists on pushing the civil rights aspect of the story, last weekend would have been a more appropriate release date. It might be able to open somewhere north of $10 m, but the total gross will likely fall south of $40 m.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE will expand this weekend to more than 2,500 theatres. Its limited run has been terrible, but much like THE LOVELY BONES audiences outside of major metropolitan areas may enjoy it more. I predict a weekend gross less than $10 m and a total around $40 m.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by dws1982 »

If Joyful Noise isn't a hit, it's not for lack of trying on the studio's part. I don't think I've been to a movie in the past month (excepting the discount theatre) where I haven't seen an ad for it--even at things like War Horse and Take Shelter. It looks pretty dire though.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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Wow! I started off my first predictions of 2012 by being spectacularly wrong about the first wide release of the year. I guess the reason exorcism movies keep getting made is because people keep going to see them. Even the studio which release THE DEVIL INSIDE thought it would make around $8 m its opening weekend. I know studios sometimes lowball their films in order save face when a film disappoints or feign surprise when it is a success, but no one could have seen a $1 m movie with no big names attached in front or behind the camera making $34 m its opening weekend. Given the low imdb rating, I am assuming the film will drop like a stone its second weekend but we will still have to endure a sequel.

After the surprisingly huge success of THE LION KING rerelease, we are going to see a flood of Disney films converted to 3D and reopened in theatres in 2012. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is the first of these films. The original release did not match the huge grosses of THE LION KING, and I assume the rerelease will be similarly dwarfed. Still, there is nothing new for families to see for the next several weeks, so the film will probably still do well. It will most likely find itself number 1 at the box-office. I foresee a $20 m opening, and possibly $70 m in all.

CONTRABAND is another low budget action film dumped in January. Mark Whalberg has never been a huge star, but after a nice career bump from THE FIGHTER he will probably be able to pull in enough folks for this film to make a small profit. It will probably grab $15 m its first weekend and finish with around $45 m.

JOYFUL NOISE looks like it could possibly draw a small but diverse crowd. There could be the combination of black and white Christian audiences, then sprinkle in some gay audiences interested in seeing Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton together, and then just some general audiences who enjoy musical comedies. I am not sure this will find an audience in the general mainstream, but it might be enough to be a small success. I think it will open with around $10 m and close with around $40 m.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

The first official weekend of 2012. Hardly anything interesting ever opens on this first weekend. Usually a horror film or rom-com, but always something small, something the studio has very little confidence in. Most people are catching up with the year end blockbusters they were too busy over the holidays to see, or checking out the major Oscar contenders. 2012 is continuing this trend.

The only major release this weekend is another exorcism movie. Horror movies usually have two patterns: either they make half their final gross in the opening weekend due to bad word of mouth, or they make five or six times their opening gross due to great word of mouth. THE DEVIL INSIDE seems like the type of film to make half its total gross in its opening weekend. Without a major name involved in front of the camera (like Anthony Hopkins in THE RITE) or behind the camera (like Eli Roth in THE LAST EXORCISM), I doubt THE DEVIL INSIDE will have a very strong opening, and unless it genuinely scares the bejeesus out of people it will have a small total. Probably around $10 m its first weekend, and $20 m total.

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 will continue to dominate the box-office, as SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 and ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS 3 fail to impress. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO is neither a success nor a failure, though THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN looks like it is pretty much a flop. WAR HORSE has been doing well enough for what it is without being a surprise hit like TRUE GRIT was last year.

As for the art house crowd, nothing has really broken into the mainstream like THE FIGHTER, BLACK SWAN, or THE KING’S SPEECH. THE DESCENDANTS and THE ARTIST are doing well for independent films, but not beyond that. It seems those releasing TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY are going to push it into more than 800 theatres this weekend. While the film has been doing quite well in its limited release, this quick of a wide expansion seems like a bad idea. Perhaps the studio has given up hopes on the film doing well with the Oscars, and wants to get out ahead of the major expansions of THE ARTIST and THE IRON LADY. I hope the film is able to do well, but it just seems like they are overestimating the intelligence of U.S. audiences outside of major metropolitan areas.
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

So holding with the last two films, I'm guessing that Moneypenny and Q will be much younger, also starting out in their careers (I know that Q seems to be going that way since they cast a young actor in the role).
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Re: 2012 Box-Office Predictions

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I'm just a big James Bond fan, lol. I did really love Casino Royale and I actually thought that Quantum of Solace was better than most people give it credit for, but it definitely was a disappointment after Craig's first outing. Still, I thought that Craig was just as good as ever and thought that it was still better than the majority of Pierce Brosnan's films (the only exception being Goldeneye), both of Dalton's films, and all of Moore's films that followed The Spy Who Loved Me. I have hopes that Skyfall will at least be better than QoS, but even still, I'm excited that they're bringing back Moneypenny and Q.
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