Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:14 pm
01) Cars 2 - $385 million
02) Thor - $315 million
03) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 - $310 million
04) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 - $305 million
05) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $300 million
06) The Hangover: Part II - $290 million
07) Kung Fu Panda 2 - $265 million
08) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $260 million
09) The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn - $250 million
10) Happy Feet 2 - $230 million
11) Sherlock Holmes 2 - $225 million
12) Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $220 million
13) Puss in Boots - $205 million
14) Green Lantern - $200 million
15) Real Steel - $190 million
16) Hop - $185 million
17) X-Men: First Class - $165 million
18) Rango - $165 million
19) Captain America: The First Avenger - $155 million
20) Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $150 million
21) Fast Five - $150 million
22) Zookeeper - $150 million
23) Tower Heist - $150 million
24) Super 8 - $145 million
25) Jack and Jill - $135 million
26) Hugo Cabret - $130 million
27) Just Go With It - $125 million
28) Rio - $125 million
29) Cowboys & Aliens - $120 million
30) Scream 4 - $115 million
31) New Year's Eve - $110 million
32) Mars Needs Moms - $105 million
33) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $100 million
Cars 2 is definitely the favorite to win the year. PIXAR is coming off of Toy Story 3, their highest grossing film to date, and Up, which is their third biggest grosser ever. Sure, Cars only grossed $244 million back in 2006 (this would adjust to close to $300 million today), but it has gone on to become one of Disney's biggest selling DVDs and Blu-rays and IS HANDS DOWN Disney's top merchandise cash cow (over $5 billion in sales!!!). This will easily eclipse the first film in the first 3 weeks alone. In fact, I could be seriously low-balling this film in terms of domestic box-office. It could easily gross more than $400 million. Hell, it could outgross Toy Story 3! A billion dollars worldwide is all but assured.
One film that I could seriously be overestimating is Thor. The trailer at Comic-Con last year drew a ton of buzz, with some fans saying that they were more excited for it than any other Marvel film on the horizon. However, Comic-Con fans aren't a reliable barometer for a film's box-office potential. They are, admittedly, a niche market and historically have never been able to predict mainstream audiences' taste. See the Comic-Con enthusiasm for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World verses its eventual box-office gross if you don't believe me. It could do Iron Man numbers or it could end up doing X-Men numbers. I'm banking on Iron Man numbers, personally, but I won't be surprised if I'm completely wrong on this one. For all I know, this year's big Marvel film could be Captain America or X-Men: First Class.
One film that is a huge question mark for me is The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. Not much has been seen of the film yet, but I am thinking that Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson could prove to be potent combination at the box-office. Of course, Jackson's last two films underperformed at the box-office (at least to expectations. King Kong was actually a qualified success, but paled in comparison to his Lord of the Rings films) and Spielberg doesn't have the street cred he used to. For now, I'm going with $250 million, but it could easily go up or down as the release date draws closer.
I expect huge drop-offs for the latest installments of Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. Nobody much liked the latest entries of either franchise, so I expect the law of diminishing returns to kick in for both. Pirates of the Caribbean is particularly vulnerable after the $100 million drop-off between the widely seen but not much liked Dead Man's Chest and the universally maligned At World's End. It's totally possible that On Stranger Tides could barely make it past $200 million. The most comparable franchise to Pirates is the Shrek franchise (well-liked/successful first entry nominated for Oscars in major categories, massively successful but mediocre second entry, third film experiences a $100 million+ drop-off due to bad will from the last entry/audiences like it even less, fourth film grosses even less than the first entry).
Anyway, that's my two cents.
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I'd also like to add that while this year's releases look to be good (at least as far as box-office is concerned...quality is another story entirely), I am very much looking forward to predicting the 2012 box-office, which will undoubtedly be a record-breaking year for Hollywood. In addition to the "Big Two" (The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit, Part 1), we're getting Star Trek 2, The Avengers, Spider-Man in 3-D, Men in Black III, The Bourne Legacy , the final Twilight film (thank God!), TWO new animated entries from PIXAR (Brave and Monsters, Inc. 2) and their first venture into live-action (John Carter of Mars), James Bond 23, Madagascar 3, and Ice Age 4. And those are just the ones that have scheduled release dates (there's also the possibility that Superman: Man of Steel will be released around Christmas). Next year's box-office should be very fun to watch.
Edited By MovieWes on 1295217708
02) Thor - $315 million
03) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 - $310 million
04) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 - $305 million
05) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $300 million
06) The Hangover: Part II - $290 million
07) Kung Fu Panda 2 - $265 million
08) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $260 million
09) The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn - $250 million
10) Happy Feet 2 - $230 million
11) Sherlock Holmes 2 - $225 million
12) Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $220 million
13) Puss in Boots - $205 million
14) Green Lantern - $200 million
15) Real Steel - $190 million
16) Hop - $185 million
17) X-Men: First Class - $165 million
18) Rango - $165 million
19) Captain America: The First Avenger - $155 million
20) Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $150 million
21) Fast Five - $150 million
22) Zookeeper - $150 million
23) Tower Heist - $150 million
24) Super 8 - $145 million
25) Jack and Jill - $135 million
26) Hugo Cabret - $130 million
27) Just Go With It - $125 million
28) Rio - $125 million
29) Cowboys & Aliens - $120 million
30) Scream 4 - $115 million
31) New Year's Eve - $110 million
32) Mars Needs Moms - $105 million
33) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $100 million
Cars 2 is definitely the favorite to win the year. PIXAR is coming off of Toy Story 3, their highest grossing film to date, and Up, which is their third biggest grosser ever. Sure, Cars only grossed $244 million back in 2006 (this would adjust to close to $300 million today), but it has gone on to become one of Disney's biggest selling DVDs and Blu-rays and IS HANDS DOWN Disney's top merchandise cash cow (over $5 billion in sales!!!). This will easily eclipse the first film in the first 3 weeks alone. In fact, I could be seriously low-balling this film in terms of domestic box-office. It could easily gross more than $400 million. Hell, it could outgross Toy Story 3! A billion dollars worldwide is all but assured.
One film that I could seriously be overestimating is Thor. The trailer at Comic-Con last year drew a ton of buzz, with some fans saying that they were more excited for it than any other Marvel film on the horizon. However, Comic-Con fans aren't a reliable barometer for a film's box-office potential. They are, admittedly, a niche market and historically have never been able to predict mainstream audiences' taste. See the Comic-Con enthusiasm for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World verses its eventual box-office gross if you don't believe me. It could do Iron Man numbers or it could end up doing X-Men numbers. I'm banking on Iron Man numbers, personally, but I won't be surprised if I'm completely wrong on this one. For all I know, this year's big Marvel film could be Captain America or X-Men: First Class.
One film that is a huge question mark for me is The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. Not much has been seen of the film yet, but I am thinking that Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson could prove to be potent combination at the box-office. Of course, Jackson's last two films underperformed at the box-office (at least to expectations. King Kong was actually a qualified success, but paled in comparison to his Lord of the Rings films) and Spielberg doesn't have the street cred he used to. For now, I'm going with $250 million, but it could easily go up or down as the release date draws closer.
I expect huge drop-offs for the latest installments of Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. Nobody much liked the latest entries of either franchise, so I expect the law of diminishing returns to kick in for both. Pirates of the Caribbean is particularly vulnerable after the $100 million drop-off between the widely seen but not much liked Dead Man's Chest and the universally maligned At World's End. It's totally possible that On Stranger Tides could barely make it past $200 million. The most comparable franchise to Pirates is the Shrek franchise (well-liked/successful first entry nominated for Oscars in major categories, massively successful but mediocre second entry, third film experiences a $100 million+ drop-off due to bad will from the last entry/audiences like it even less, fourth film grosses even less than the first entry).
Anyway, that's my two cents.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'd also like to add that while this year's releases look to be good (at least as far as box-office is concerned...quality is another story entirely), I am very much looking forward to predicting the 2012 box-office, which will undoubtedly be a record-breaking year for Hollywood. In addition to the "Big Two" (The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit, Part 1), we're getting Star Trek 2, The Avengers, Spider-Man in 3-D, Men in Black III, The Bourne Legacy , the final Twilight film (thank God!), TWO new animated entries from PIXAR (Brave and Monsters, Inc. 2) and their first venture into live-action (John Carter of Mars), James Bond 23, Madagascar 3, and Ice Age 4. And those are just the ones that have scheduled release dates (there's also the possibility that Superman: Man of Steel will be released around Christmas). Next year's box-office should be very fun to watch.
Edited By MovieWes on 1295217708