2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri May 13, 2011 3:49 pm

THOR started the summer off with a mid-size bang, and now this weekend sees two smaller releases. THOR will certainly be number one again this weekend. The number two spot will be a battle between a raunchy comedy and a sci-fi action film.

I think BRIDESMAIDS will come out on top between the two new releases. There are very few outright comedies in the theatres right now. This film has been getting quite a bit of attention for being a comedy starring women that could not be labeled a rom-com or chick flick. The reviews have been absolutely outstanding, with a 90% RT score. I think enough folks will be interested in checking it out to give it an opening weekend around $25 m. If word of mouth is strong, it could make close to $100 m, especially considering it faces little comedic competition this weekend or the next. However, then it goes up against the sequel to the film it is most often compared to: THE HANGOVER 2.

PRIEST definitely feels out of place in this summer of huge franchises. It seems more like a film we would see released in late August or September. With THOR and FAST FIVE still going strong, action junkies are most likely going to ignore this one. Especially given its odd premise and lack of star power. I would think it will make around $20 m (if it is lucky), with no more than $45 m total. If it had been placed between two huge movies like THOR and PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4, maybe it could have done better.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri May 06, 2011 2:50 pm

I was finally on the money with my prediction for FAST FIVE. It sure has been a hit-and-miss year so far as many films which were expected to be blockbusters either underperformed (BATTLE: LOS ANGELES, THE GREEN HORNET) or completely bombed (SUCKER PUNCH, SCREAM 4). However, FAST FIVE was immune to whatever doldrums have taken over movie-going teens who should have made the aforementioned films huge hits. Now we get to see if the summer blockbusters will be hit with the same bad luck.

Despite what the folks who released FAST FIVE last weekend said, THOR is officially the first big summer film. The character of Thor has never been as huge in the comic world as Spider-Man, Batman, Superman, or the X-Men. I am not sure if comic book fandom translates anymore to how the films will do. Iron Man has never been as popular as Spider-Man or Batman, but the films did quite well. THOR has the advantage of being the first big summer film, with only FAST FIVE as any type of competition. Much like last weekend’s action film, THOR is getting surprisingly good reviews. Considering the 3-D boost, I think a $70 m opening weekend is a good possibility. It faces weak competition next weekend, but then goes up against PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 and several huge films each subsequent week. I do not think the film can match the grosses of the top tier superhero movies I mentioned, but it should do well. I think it will make just a little north of $200 m.

SOMETHING BORROWED is the typical rom-com none of the characters are particularly likeable, making it hard to be invested in the romance on screen. Yet, no matter how dumb these films are they manage to make more money than they deserve. Except for Kate Hudson, who plays the secondary character, none of the leads have any luck opening movies. Both Ginnifer Goodwin and John Krasinski are trying to break out of TV and into film, but I am not sure audiences are interested. I have never heard of Colin Egglesfield before, but he sure comes across as very dull in the trailers. I think around $20 m seems possible, with a quick decline to a final total somewhere south of $70 m.

The other film opening is JUMPING THE BROOM. One rom-com up against another seems pretty silly. Despite the good cast, I doubt the film will be all that strong. A $10 m opening at tops, with a $30 m total if it is lucky.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed May 04, 2011 2:23 pm

MovieWes wrote:I know I'm going to get crap for saying this, but I actually kind of like the Fast and the Furious movies in a guilty pleasure sort of way. Although I've never actually paid good money to see one of them, just watched them all on television. And I mostly enjoyed them as nothing more than a mindless time waster when there was nothing else on TV.

I enjoyed the first one in a similar guilty-pleasure way. I loved the homo-erotic nature of the fillm. Lots of sweaty, muscled guys standing really close to each other, acting all tough. The relationship between Diesel and Walker was so loving, much like the relationship in POINT BREAK (the gayest action film ever). I have not seen the others but I am intrigued by number 4 and 5. I will probably never watch 2 and 3 since they do not have the Diesel/Walker romance.
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Postby MovieWes » Sun May 01, 2011 7:28 pm

I know I'm going to get crap for saying this, but I actually kind of like the Fast and the Furious movies in a guilty pleasure sort of way. Although I've never actually paid good money to see one of them, just watched them all on television. And I mostly enjoyed them as nothing more than a mindless time waster when there was nothing else on TV.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun May 01, 2011 2:12 pm

I was still getting over how Fast & Furious did so well, and now Fast Five comes along and not only grosses $83M in its opening weekend, but has such positive reviews? A glaring indication of how terrible the year has been so far.

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:22 pm

Summer movie season is almost here. This summer is going to be insane, with so many new franchises and sequels opening. I am not sure who will come out on top (probably TRANSFORMERS 3) but there is no way all the big films can do well.

For now, though, we have a huge film getting out ahead of the summer pack. THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS was a little surprise of a film. It was an unofficial remake of POINT BREAK which got better reviews than your average dumb action film. It never aspired to be anything great but it had fun and did quite well considering its small budget. Each oddly named sequel failed to repeat the first's success with critics, but shockingly this fifth film is getting good reviews. With a R.T. score of 78%, it is actually more well reviewed than HANNA.
As for the box-office, the first two sequels were not as successful as the first film but the third film had a huge opening and the top gross (though not adjusted for inflation). I would like to say FAST FIVE is going to have a $100 m opening, but given how bad the other action films have done this year I am going to say $85 m. Since next weekend has THOR and the last film was very front loaded, the flick will probably end around the $180 m mark.

The first HOODWINKED was a surprise success in 2005. It did not have a huge opening but made a little more than $50 m in the end. I am not sure if people were clamoring for a sequel. Most of the kids who liked the original are too old for this one, but maybe the parents will remember the first one fondly. RIO and HOP are dying down but still doing well, so I think a $17 m opening is likely. Since there are no little kids movies opening for several more weeks, it could do a nice bit of business. If HOP can make more than a $100 m, than HOODWINKED 2 could end up around $70 m.

PROM really seems like a film which should have been released on the Disney Channel rather than the big screen. It seems aimed for tweens but is set in high school. I know that formula worked for HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL, but films like the remake of FAME and BANDSLAM have failed to find their audience. However, this one has the power of Disney behind it. I would think a $13 m opening seems possible with a $30 m total.

DYLAN DOG looks like a very strange film. I am not sure why they chose this weekend since FAST FIVE will be direct competition, and the upcoming summer films will keep it from finding its audience. Last weekend would have been a much better choice, especially since they are not planning on giving it a very wide release. $4 m seems like the best they can hope for with an $8 m total.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 4:23 pm

Well, I was half right with last weekend's predictions. RIO did about what I said it would, while SCREAM 4 was quite a disappoinment. While some blame can be layed at the surprisingly successful feet of competing horor film INSIDIOUS, it still seems nobody was that interested in a fourth sequel ten years after the third film. I think it is interesting how SCREAM brought about the clever teen slasher films of the nineties which were than replaced by the torture porn of the aughts which now is replaced by good old fashioned ghost stories like PARANORMAL ACTIVITY and INSIDIOUS.

This weekend has two pretty different major releases going for very divergent audiences. Both should find relative success for their genres. Number one is obviously going to be MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY. Tyler Perry has been one of the most successful star brands since Adam Sandler. Audiences who go to these movies always know what they are going to get, and you either love his type of humor or just do not care.
Madea is Perry's most successful character. The last Madea film opened to $41 m and went on to gross $90 m. I would say this is pretty much what will happen to this film. I do not know if a Tyler Perry film will ever pass $100 m, but I think this film will get as close as the last Madea flick.

The other big release is WATER FOR ELEPHANTS. I am pretty surprised this film is being released in April. I would have thought a Oscar run in November would have been more appropriate, but given the so-so reviews the studio must have realized Oscar would not be interested.
Given how little there is for adults in the theatres right now, this film could actually be pretty successful. Reese Witherspoon was once a big box office star, and Robert Pattinson keeps trying to prove his movie star status extends outside of sparkly vampires. The book was well loved so I am assuming it already has a built in audience, plus those grown-ups just interested in a good old fashioned romantic drama.
If something like THE LOVELY BONES can make $44 m, I would think this movie could open to $20 m and end with $60 m.

The other film open in semi-wide release is the third annual Disney Nature film AFRICAN CATS. The other two have been mildly successful; however, this one seems more aimed at kids than the previous two with the anthropomorphised tale of cat families. Given how strong RIO and HOP are still doing, and HOODWINKED TOO opening next weekend, this film will have a tough time pulling in the little kids. A $7 m opening might be possible with a $20 m total take.

P.S. I do not get your comment Zahveed. I love when other people join in the conversation in this thread, but you will have to explain to me what you are referring to.

P.P.S. Is anyone else as shocked as I am at how well SOUL SURFER is doing? It is not making THE BLIND SIDE money or anything, but considering the trailers make it look like it was meant for the Lifetime channel I have been pretty blown away by the love for this film. It could end up making close to $40 m. I guess adding a little Christian element to flicks is still an easy way to pull in those audiences in the Bible-belt.




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Postby Zahveed » Tue Apr 19, 2011 9:27 pm

It's like a really boring roller coaster where the guy next to you still manages to throw up on your good pants.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:39 pm

This has been a bad year for the box-office as well as box-office predicting. Film after film has either disappointed or flat out failed. There have been some small successes, but nothing released so far this year could be called a hit.

RIO seems to stand a good chance of reversing this year's downward spiral. It did not earn as good of reviews as RANGO, but the film is definitely liked. It also seems to have the right mixture of humor and music which families like. I predict an opening around $40 m. Hopefully it helps ends the surprising success of HOP. If it were not for that film, RIO would probably have a better opening weekend. I think it will end its run in the pretty good $150 m range.

The first SCREAM was a lovely and surprising delight. It also was a true word of mouth hit. The film opened with a dismal $6 m, but went on to make more than $100 m. The two sequels were also successes but they burned off from their first weekends more quickly. Ten years after the last film is a pretty long wait for a sequel like this. Many of the teens who will check this film out were probably not even born when the first film was released. Still, by reputation alone I assume it will manage a strong opening, maybe in the $40 m range. INSIDIOUS is doing surprisingly well, which could dampen SCREAM 4's opening weekend. Whatever the number is, the second weekend will probably see a big drop. I think a $90 m total is reasonable.

I am not sure which of the two new films will be number one this weekend. I am going to say RIO, but SCREAM 4 could easily pull off a win.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 08, 2011 4:33 pm

Well fuck if I know what the hell people want. Well reviewed sci-fi films can succeed (THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU) or fail (THE SOURCE CODE). Horrible family films can succeed (GNOMEO AND JULIET, HOP) or fail (MARS NEEDS MOMS). JUST GO WITH IT (success) vs THE DILEMNA (failure), THE GREEN HORNET and BATTLE: LOS ANGELESE (sorta success) vs SUCKER PUNCH (failure), I AM NUMBER FOUR (sorta success) vs RED RIDING HOOD (failure), etc. It is not like there is a great deal of difference in quality for these films. Bad movies can makes lots of money or no money, and the same with good movies. Audiences are just being so random with their choices. I am assuming things will start becoming more clear once the summer movies role around.

This weekend's batch are an interesting mix. You have two stupid comedies, one a remake of a classic and the other a high concept stoner comedy. Of the two, ARTHUR seems to have the better shot of being on top. I am not sure the U.S. has completely accepted Russell Brand, but they were willing to endure him enough for flicks like FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL and GET HIM TO THE GREEK to make around $60 m. Then again, he was more of a supporting player or co-star in those films. Here the focus is on him. I figure a $19 m opening is possible and around $60 m in all.

I know art house directors go Hollywood all the time, but David Gordon Green's journey from critical darling to frat boy king was certainly shocking. I actually enjoyed PINEAPPLE EXPRESS. I thought it had a certain quirkiness, some appealing performances, and better visuals than these type of films usually get. YOUR HIGHNESS however just looks like a mess. The bizarre combination of fantasy film with stoner comedy was a hard sell to begin with, but at least PINEAPPLE EXPRESS had relatively good reviews and strong word-of-mouth to push it to a $87 m total. This film will play similar to PAUL, with a $15 m opening and probably not passing $50 m by the end of its run.

I guess the short run of well made films for grown ups doing well at the box-office (TRUE GRIT, BLACK SWAN, THE FIGHTER, THE KING'S SPEECH, and THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU) could not extend to the very well reviewed (and well liked on imdb) THE SOURCE CODE. If that film had done better, I would have higher hopes for HANNA. At this point, I think it would be lucky to have a $9 m opening and make much more than $30 m in all. It looks amazing, and the reviews are mostly kind. It probably would have done better if it had been released in December when people were actually buying tickets for good films.

I am surprised SOUL SURFER is receiving a wide release. PRIDE, CROSSOVER, and GRACIE are a few of the more recent small sports dramas which have been pushed into wide releases only to fail. I guess the makers are hoping the Christian tinge of the film will help them get some of THE BLIND SIDE audience. I doubt they will have much success. $5 m would be a great weekend for them, and it will probably burn off quickly. I guess about $10 m in all.

I am assuming the bigger-than-expected HOP will stay at number 1 this weekend.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 01, 2011 9:49 pm

It is a good thing this summer has so many huge films, because the first third of the year has been a major bust. All major films have been a disappointment. It is as if the usually reliable teen and college age males are giving up on movies. Films which skew older and female are doing better than expected while the usual action films are just not playing as well as expected.

Hopefully that means SOURCE CODE will be a success. Similar to THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU, hopefully this high concept sci-fi film which focuses on a handsome leading man and a romantic subplot will ride its very strong reviews (88% at Rottentomatoes) to a strong opening around $25 m. On imdb, it has a rating of 8.1 which could mean strong word of mouth. $80 m seems very likely, maybe even going as high as $100 m. I know it will be the first film released this year I plan to see on the big screen.

INSIDIOUS seems to be hoping for a quick cash grab opening weekend similar to THE LAST EXORCISM. $13 m seems like a good possibility with a quick plunge. Unless word of mouth is stronger than usual for this type of horror film, $30 is probably the limit.

Kid films have been doing pretty well (with the huge exception of MARS NEEDS MOMS). HOP probably will not open huge, but it should do fine. Maybe $13 m with a $40 m total.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 25, 2011 4:19 pm

We are now entering the twelfth weekend of the year, and still no film has made more than $40 m on its opening weekend, and still no film has passed the century mark (though JUST GO WITH IT and RANGO will this weekend, and GNOMEO AND JULIET will eventually). It seems all the big movies are being crammed into the summer.

When I first saw the previews for SUCKER PUNCH I thought it had a chance at passing $100 m. Now, I am not so sure. I do think it has an outside chance of making more than $40 m this weekend, but with audiences being as fickle as they have been all year I am going to say $35 m. Whatever the opening weekend, I think it will drop like a stone by its second weekend. I would be surprised if it made more than $80 m total.

DIARY OF A WIMPY KID was definitely a bigger hit than most people expected which is why a sequel was rushed out before the actors had a chance to age. Unfortunately, it seems it also did not give the writers any chance to come up with anything good or funny to put in the movie. Still, kids are not all that particular about scripts, so I would imagine it will have a good $30 m opening weekend. It will probably top out at $90 m. I am assuming a third film cannot be far behind.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:37 pm

Well, I clearly know nothing about what the idiot masses want. I was pretty close with BATTLE: LOS ANGELES, but way off with RED RIDING HOOD and MARS NEEDS MOMS.

Were back to some pretty low rent releases this weekend. None of them have hit written on them, but they seem small budget enough that making anywhere past $40 m will be considered good.

I actually think RANGO has the best chance at number 1 for the weekend. Animated films usually drop considerably during the weekdays, but RANGO actually pulled ahead of BATTLE: LOS ANGELES on Thursday.

LIMITLESS, PAUL, and THE LINCOLN LAWYER will probably show up on the charts in that order behind RANGO and BATTLE: LOS ANGELES. All of them will do somewhere south of $15 m, and maybe north of $40 m by the end of their runs.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 11, 2011 5:19 pm

We are finally seeing some life in the box-office. By this time last year we already had minor hits like BOOK OF ELI, DEAR JOHN, VALENTINE'S DAY, and SHUTTER ISLAND, plus a mega blockbuster like ALICE IN WONDERLAND. Other than THE GREEN HORNET, GNOMEO AND JULIET, and RANGO, most films this year have been outright failures, though none of them were expected to be blockbusters. Even with low expectations, these past two and a half months have been pathetic. This weekend, however, three films with higher profiles. All three have the potential to do quite well, and luckily all three are going for different audiences.

BATTLE: LOS ANGELES is the first film this year that has high expectations. Anything under $40 m this weekend cannot be seen as anything other than disappointing. I think given how starved action film fans are for something, they will be quite welcoming to this flick. I think $45 m easily this first weekend. Given next week's lackluster competition, the film will probably do close to $150 m overall.

To quote one review I saw, "What hath TWILIGHT wrought?" RED RIDING HOOD seems like such an obvious and easy cash-in for the tween girl (and their mothers) audience, I am surprised it has taken them this long to make. I would like to think the studio selected Catherine Hardwicke to direct the film because they thought she had a good cinematic eye and they wanted a female perspective for the film...but it was more likely they just wanted to be able to push the TWILIGHT connection even harder in the advertising. Amanda Seyfried has shown herself to be popular in both the romantic comedy/drama genre. If the bad and dulle I AM NUMBER FOUR and the embarrassingly bad BEASTLY were able to open to $19 m and $9 m respectively, I would think this film could open around $30 m. It will probably run out of steam around $80 m, but it is hard to tell with tween girls.

MARS NEEDS MOMS has been receiving the best review of the three new films. I thought it looked pretty bad, but it definitely seems more in line with what people expect from kids films than say RANGO. I think $25 m can be expected with it stopping around $100 m.
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Postby Zahveed » Mon Mar 07, 2011 7:58 pm

Rango is definitely weird. I can testify to that as one here who has seen it. Kids loved it and the parents in the audience were laughing moreso than the kids at the theater I went to. On the other side of the spectrum, my stepdad was telling me a coworker of his thought it was horrible, but tastes vary from person to person. Strange films tend to have bad word of mouth in the general public but do well at home as the years pass. Grossing nearly $40 million isn't exactly cult status, but if it starts dropping considerably in the next few weeks it could become one of those underrated classics.
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