2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[rolotomasi99]

What the hell was that?  I know none of the four new releases last weekend were all that good, but for them all to fail so spectacularly was quite shocking.  I assume the winning streak for THE HELP is going to continue, and it will once again be number 1 at the box-office.  If it had not opened on Wednesday, it would have been number one on its first weekend, and would have been the only film this year to be number 1 three weeks in a row.  With the weak slate of films coming up in the next few weeks, THE HELP could be number 1 a few more times.

DON’T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK seems like a fun little haunted house film.  Despite some truly ridiculous characters and moments, INSIDIOUS was a creepy little film that earned quite a few chills with almost zero blood spilt.  DON’T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK seems to follow the same approach, though we will have to wait to see if it can reproduce the minor box-office success of INSIDIOUS.  This seems more like a LET ME IN type of flop.  Maybe Guillermo Del Toro’s involvement will help bring in some folks, but it all relies on word-of-mouth after that.  I expect an opening weekend in the area of $10 m, and a $30 m total.

I am always happy to see women in action roles, but COLOMBIANA is another action flick starring a woman who looks way too skinny to kick anyone's ass.  It is hard to know how many folks are interested in seeing this film.  Despite co-starring in two huge films in 2009, Zoe Saldana has not been treated like a star the same way mumbly, stone-faced Sam Worthington has.  If a $100 m budgeted action film starring Angelina Jolie can only make slightly north of $100 m, there is no way this film is going to be all that big a hit.  It probably will not be a flop like DOMINO, but it will make less than the already pathetic SUCKER PUNCH.  It might be able to have an opening slightly south of $10 m, with a total somewhere slightly south of $30 m.

The third wide release this weekend is OUR IDIOT BROTHER.  From the favorable notices it received at Sundance to the good reviews it is receiving now, this film seemed like an easy art house hit along the lines of THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT.  Why Harvey Weinstein felt like this film should be released in more than 2,000 theatres, let alone opening in that many as opposed to working up to that number, is beyond me.  The main actors in the film are all fine comedic performers, but they are definitely B and C list celebrities.  I will be surprised if this film makes more than $5 m this weekend and truly shocked if it makes more than $15 m total.

[rolotomasi99]

Out of the four films being released this weekend, three have an equal shot at being number one, though none may be able to overtake THE HELP which has had a really good week after its great weekend.  I predict the new release most likely to take the top spot is the remake of FRIGHT NIGHT.  The film faces competition from last week’s FINAL DESTINATION 5 and this week’s CONAN THE BARBARIAN, but it has the star appeal and it advertising easily communicates to young adults what pleasures are to be had if they buy a ticket.  Colin Farrell is a sexy vampire who does not sparkle, and David Tennant should be a hoot as the reluctant vampire slayer.  Despite parts in two blockbuster films, Anton Yelchin is no Shia Labeouf (a very sad sentence to write), so people will be coming for Farrell or the frights. The film has received surprisingly strong reviews, but sometimes good reviews seem to help (RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES) while other times it does not seem to make a difference (X-MEN: FIRST CLASS).  An opening a little north of $20 m and a $60 m total are probably the most it can hope for.

CONAN THE BARBARIAN will be going for the same young adult audience as FRIGHT NIGHT, but the two films will probably split that audience along gender lines as the boys see the action film and the girls see the horror film.  The action film has a chance at winning the weekend, but only because FRIGHT NIGHT might underperform rather than this film being successful.  The film’s smaller budget and R rating do not help it with the teen boys who love action films, plus its ridiculous looking trailers and lack of any stars.  It can expect an opening around $20 m and a $45 m total if it is lucky.

SPY KIDS 4 is the third new release with a small chance of grabbing the number 1 spot.  The original SPY KIDS was a surprise success, notable for being a small budget action kid film and for having a Latino family as the heroes.  The second film made quite a bit less than the first but was still a hit, and the third improved on the second’s gross but came just a little short of the first.  However, those films were all released one year after the other and used the same cast.  This new sequel comes 8 years after the last film, and uses a whole new cast (though with cameos from the originals).  With most kids films underperforming (except for that damn movie about the annoying blue people), I find it hard to believe this is going to be as big of a success as any of the three original films.  The only thing it has going for it is the complete lack of competition for almost a month for family audiences.  Still, I am thinking it makes around $20 m in its opening, and a $70 m total.

The fourth film opening wide this weekend has no chance of being number one.  ONE DAY has a very silly sounding premise, and while its two stars have been successful in other films neither has had any luck as romantic leads.  Given how few screens it is on, its opening might not even rise above $10 m, and unless the word-of-mouth is great a $30 m total is the best it can do.

[rolotomasi99]

Wow. Audiences have taught us some interesting lessons these past two weeks. There are people who like westerns (as the success of TRUE GRIT taught us) and alien invasion films (as the success of countless films taught us), but they really have very little interest in those genres overlapping (as the disastrous returns on COWBOYS AND ALIENS is teaching us). Also, after one successful film, four varyingly successful sequels, one successful remake, and now a successful prequel, it can be clearly shown people are fascinated and entertained by the idea of non-human simians taking over the planet. I assume we can expect several more films showing how the planet truly becomes the dominion of the apes.

THE HELP is opening on Wednesday for some reason. Given the popularity of the book, the cast of small stars, the sappy storylines so many folks love, the lack of movies for grown-ups, and the somewhat good reviews (mostly for Viola Davis), I suspect the film will be a success. It will most likely make the most money of the three Emma Stone summer flicks. I see $5 m for Wednesday and Thursday, and $25 m for the weekend. Depending on how strong word-of-mouth is, I see $120 m total.

Depending on how well RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES holds, FINAL DESTINATION 5 has the best chance of being number one at the box-office. The FINAL DESTINATION films have been the supernatural cousin to the SAW films, with no one really caring about the plot or the characters but really just wanting to see the ridiculously elaborate ways “death” kills off pretty teens. As long as this film delivers, it should find similar success as the previous (and falsely labeled finale) film in the series. However, the previous FINAL DESTINATION faced far less competition for the young adult audience as this one. A $30 m opening and maybe a $65 m total.

I am not sure what to make of 30 MINUTES OR LESS. It’s a small budget action film. I am trying to think of an example of a successful title that fits that description. Certainly the director’s previous film, ZOMBIELAND, is close but it had the horror angle, a genre people expect to be made with a small budget. PINEAPPLE EXPRESS may be another example. Still, 30 MINUTES OR LESS certainly has some challenges. Since the action scenes will most likely not be that spectacular, its success depends on how hilarious people find the humor. The R-rated comedy winning streak is cooling, but 30 MINUTES OR LESS might be able to still turn a profit on from a modestly good box-office take. FINAL DESTINATION 5 is probably competing for the same young adult audience and will win. A $15 m opening with a $45 m total.

I know this phrase gets over used, but GLEE is truly a phenomenon. Its success spans television, the music industry, and live concerts. It just keeps raking in money for Fox. Now it faces its biggest challenge: cinema. Concert films in the past few years have found varying success. There are the highs of NEVER SAY NEVER and THIS IS IT, and the lows of JONAS BROTHERS and U2. I think the GLEE concert movie will find itself somewhere toward the lower end of the spectrum. It is opening in about half the theatres of THIS IS IT and is only playing for 2 weeks as opposed to the 13 weeks of NEVER SAY NEVER. I think it will have maybe a $15 m opening and assuming Fox does not extend its release past 2 weeks the total gross will be around $30 m.

[Sonic Youth]

Rise of the Planet of the Apes earned almost $20 mil yesterday. That's astonishing! It's expected to tap out at $50 mil by the Sunday.

Bingo, and then some.

'Apes' rise to No. 1 weekend with $54 million
Sunday, August 7, 2011
(08-07) 09:35 PDT LOS ANGELES, (AP) --

Apes have climbed to the top rung of the weekend box office.

According to studio estimates Sunday, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" took in $54 million to open as the No. 1 movie.

That was more than analysts expected for the "Apes" prequel, though well below the $68.5 million opening of Tim Burton's "Planet of the Apes" remake 10 years ago.

The family tale "The Smurfs" remained at No. 2 for the second-straight weekend with $21 million, lifting its domestic total to $76.2 million.

The sci-fi Western "Cowboys & Aliens," which debuted at No. 1 narrowly ahead of "The Smurfs" a week earlier, fell to third with $15.8 million, raising its total to $67.4 million.

The comedy "The Change-Up" opened a weak No. 4 with $13.5 million.

[Sabin]

Rise of the Planet of the Apes earned almost $20 mil yesterday. That's astonishing! It's expected to tap out at $50 mil by the Sunday.

[rolotomasi99]

Well, here is something I did not expect: good reviews for THE RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES. It has 81% on R.T. as of writing this. Many of the reviews praise Andy Serkis' performance in particular, but the low key and emotional story is also noted. In fact, apparently despite the action heavy trailers, the movie drifts at a idle pace until the very end. Ultimately this may keep the film from moving past $100 m, but hopefully the good reviews will get people to see it the first weekend or so. Of all the PLANET OF THE APES movies, CONQUEST OF THE PLANET OF THE APES was always my favorite. It had some interesting things to say about oppressed people and uprisings. Apparently this film touches on those themes as well. Who would have thought this silly looking film would be considered by critics the best f/x flick of summer? I am thinking it will have a $30 m opening and a $90 m total. I hope it makes more, but given how bad this summer has been in general I doubt this more thoughtful film will be able to pack them in.

THE CHANGE-UP brings together two guys Hollywood really wants make into big movie stars, but audiences keep shrugging their shoulders. Ryan Reynolds is a hot guy, but for whatever reason he has failed to become a leading man sex symbol. The only big rom-com he has done is THE PROPOSAL, and most people went for Sandra Bullock. GREEN LANTERN was a huge failure, but I am not sure if that is his fault or not. Do straight guys like him? Jason Bateman has been around Hollywood since the late 80's but his star is rising. He has never proven himself as a lead but he has found himself in some successful films as support or ensemble. THE SWITCH was a flop but that might have to do more with the premise rather than him. This film will test both Reynolds and Bateman as comedic stars. The premise is ridiculous of course, but the gross-out humor is what is selling these days. I think an opening just a little bit north of $20 m is likely with a $70 m total. I would be more than happy to see this film do less since the reviews indicate it is very sexist, but audiences seem to love that shit.

[OscarGuy]

I think you're missing a couple of crucial details re your comparison of Cowboys & Aliens to District 9 and about comparative performances at the B.O.

District 9 was not as heavily marketed (it had good marketing, but nothing great). The only person whose name it built on was Peter Jackson, which might normally sell tickets, but I don't think it helped nearly as much as it will for C & A. And the reason for that? The other item you missed: Director Jon Favreau and producer Steven Spielberg. Those names carry a lot of weight with fanboys, ESPECIALLY Favreau who did such a rousing job with Iron Man that it was part of the advertising campaign heavily. District 9 arrived without nearly as much talk or fanfare as C&A has so far. I'm predicting a much higher opening.

And I think i would be hard-pressed to call Gosling the lead in CSL. While I would agree that the film previews have focused a lot on him being in it, and the film is supposed to be an ensemble piece, every preview I've seen suggests that Steve Carell is the lead of the film and Gosling, et. al. are support (even if ensemble support).

[rolotomasi99]

For all the sequels, reboots, and just plain rip-offs Hollywood makes, it is refreshing when they take a chance on something original.  Granted, COWBOYS AND ALIENS is based on a comic book, which makes it not exactly “original”, but the idea is unlike anything you would expect from a film with a budget around $100 m.  I am not sure if the title and premise are too much for audiences to handle.  Sometimes audiences surprise me with what “out there” films they are willing to see (DISTRIC 9) and which ones they ignore (SOURCE CODE).  I think given COWBOYS AND ALIENS relentless advertising and semi-star power, the film will earn around the same as DISTRICT 9 (which had neither).  A $35 m opening and a total just slightly north of $100 m.
 
This year has to be known as the summer family film massacre.  Every single movie for kids this summer has failed to meet or exceed expectations.  I have no reason to believe THE SMURFS will buck this trend.  I am not sure what the studios’ expectations are for THE SMURFS, but I would imagine they would hope for at the very least to pass $100 m.  That seems highly unlikely, though YOGI BEAR was able to limp to $100 m and the two ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS movies passed $200 m.  However, those films were released in the end of year holiday season when parents are willing to take their kids to any crap just to shut them up.  THE SMURFS is being released in the end of July.  FREAKY FRIDAY and both of THE PRINCESS DIARIES are the only examples of family movies released this late in summer in the past 10 years that made more than $100 m.  I predict (and hope) it will have an opening no more than $25 m, and a total of no more than $80 m.
 
While I was pretty close with my predictions for CAPTAIN AMERICA, I was way, way off with my opening weekend prediction for FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS.  I will never know what straight women are looking for in their romantic comedies.  If somewhat good reviews and two hot leads who reportedly have really great on-screen chemistry (and a hot male star who shows his butt quite a bit in the film) is not enough to get the ladies interested, I am not sure what they want.  Maybe the fault lies in Kunis.  Some actresses are just not who straight women want to see in their romantic comedies.  Angelina Jolie may be a huge star and considered incredibly beautiful, but she has never been in a successful rom-com.  Maybe that has to do with her “home-wrecker” reputation.  Perhaps Kunis is too much of the same villain type in many women’s eyes, which is why everyone loved her so much in BLACK SWAN.
Anyhoo, if something as light and sexy as FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS was unable to do well on its opening weekend, I highly doubt the slightly more serious CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE will be able to do any better.  Ryan Gosling sure has his share of straight girl fans from his performance in THE NOTEBOOK, but this will be the first test to see whether he can be a rom-com lead.  Emma Stone’s star is quickly rising after EASY A and Steve Carrell has his fans as well, but neither has proven themselves as a draw in a traditional romantic comedy.  Given how similar the trailers make this film seem to HITCH, I am not sure if folks will dismiss with the same been-there-done-that attitude FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS suffered from.  I hope I am wrong about how little this film might make, but it just seems rom-coms are suffering this summer the same as family films.  Probably a $15 m opening and a $60 m total. 

[Sabin]

I started to write "Nah, that's not gonna happen. Worldwide, sure. But domestic seems like a longshot." Then I looked on boxofficemojo and learned that domestically, Tranformers only has $50 mil on Harry Potter! Now, it's gonna be a squeaker, but I guess it's in the cards.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Epic second weekend drop for HP7.2 = the fanbase has only become more fervent, and not expanded. Should still come close to $375M and hopefully take down Transformers 3 to become the year's highest grosser.

[Sabin]

Ticket sales vs. Box office.

[OscarGuy]

Inflation adjustment would definitely put others of his films above Midnight in Paris.

Annie Hall, 1977 - $38,251,425 -> $134,823,408 (adj)
Manhattan, 1979 - $39,946,780 -> $125,092,307 (adj)
Hannah and Her Sisters, 1986 - $40,084,041 -> $84,921,984 (adj)
Midnight in Paris, 2011 - $43,504,000

I'm sure if I calculated all of his pre-2000 output, much of it would adjust much higher than its current amounts. This is why I detest people comparing box office totals from more than a decade ago with the present.

For instance, if you take the last several box office champions, you get Titanic ranking 6th of all time, Avatar 14th and Dark Knight 28th. The only reason people talk about the numbers instead of the actuality is that they want to make history sound like it favors new releases. Otherwise, you would have an 82-year-old film placing first (Gone With the Wind). Hell, I'm surprised Lucas isn't constantly re-releasing Star Wars in hopes of making up the $188 million that separates it from Gone With the Wind. Titanic has over $580 to go to get there, so its impending 3D re-release next year isn't likely to get it there, though it could push past Ten Commandments, E.T. and The Sound of Music to take 3rd place on the inflation adjusted chart.

[danfrank]

Has anybody else noticed that Midnight in Paris is now Woody Allen's highest grossing film ever? I'm sure that some of his earlier "hits (this is all relative, especially when this thread is focused on the likes of Harry Potter)" such as Annie Hall, Manhattan, and Hannah and her Sisters must have sold more tickets, but still this is an impressive feat at this stage of Allen's career.

[Sabin]

Wow.

Captain America destroyed Harry Potter on Friday, $25 mil to $15 mil. I thought it would be far closer, but America has spoken! Didn't think that would happen.

[rolotomasi99]

Just a few more big summer pictures left. Despite some huge sequels and anticipated comic book adaptations, this has been a pretty sad summer. It looks like only two films will have passed $300 m by the time summer is over. THE DEATHLY HALLOWS will probably pass $400 m, but it is going to have a huge second weekend drop and make only about $60 m.

The winner of this weekend will probably be CAPTAIN AMERICA. The character is one of the top tier characters in Marvel. He has been around the longest of all the Marvel characters still popular in the comic book world. A film adaptation has always been tricky since his origins are so entrenched in World War 2, it seemed impossible to try to modernize him. Trying to sell a comic book movie set in the early twentieth century to the idiot masses seemed nearly impossible. I think INGLORIOUS BASTERDS though helped convince studios that action film fans would be willing to see shit blow up no matter what era it was. As long as they embraced the Indian Jones model of treating the film with a dash of cheeky fun, most people would buy into setting it in a time they cannot relate to. From the favorable reviews I have read, CAPTAIN AMERICA captures the tone perfectly. It knows when to be serious and it knows when to be fun. It is not stupid like GREEN LANTERN but also not as smart as X-MEN: FIRST CLASS. It finds the balance that made THOR so popular. Also, from what I have read it should be a Tea Party dream with its jingoistic view of saintly USA. I expect it to have a $70 m opening and a $210 m total.

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS has everything going for it. It is starring two very attractive people who have finally made the transition to lead film stars, it is getting the best reviews of any mainstream romantic comedy in years, it is being released in a summer where no R-rated comedy has failed so far, it is the first romantic comedy in months so there should be pent up demand for this genre, and it has a male lead who should appeal to the women who lust after him and to their boyfriends/husbands who find him funny so it should have a strong appeal across the board. The only thing working against this film is that we already saw the damn thing at the beginning of the year. I think enough time has passed that people will feel interested in seeing the same idea again. I think it will have a healthy $35 m opening and go onto a $130 m total.