2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

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MovieWes
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Postby MovieWes » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:14 pm

01) Cars 2 - $385 million
02) Thor - $315 million
03) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 - $310 million
04) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 - $305 million
05) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $300 million
06) The Hangover: Part II - $290 million
07) Kung Fu Panda 2 - $265 million
08) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $260 million
09) The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn - $250 million
10) Happy Feet 2 - $230 million
11) Sherlock Holmes 2 - $225 million
12) Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $220 million
13) Puss in Boots - $205 million
14) Green Lantern - $200 million
15) Real Steel - $190 million
16) Hop - $185 million
17) X-Men: First Class - $165 million
18) Rango - $165 million
19) Captain America: The First Avenger - $155 million
20) Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $150 million
21) Fast Five - $150 million
22) Zookeeper - $150 million
23) Tower Heist - $150 million
24) Super 8 - $145 million
25) Jack and Jill - $135 million
26) Hugo Cabret - $130 million
27) Just Go With It - $125 million
28) Rio - $125 million
29) Cowboys & Aliens - $120 million
30) Scream 4 - $115 million
31) New Year's Eve - $110 million
32) Mars Needs Moms - $105 million
33) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $100 million

Cars 2 is definitely the favorite to win the year. PIXAR is coming off of Toy Story 3, their highest grossing film to date, and Up, which is their third biggest grosser ever. Sure, Cars only grossed $244 million back in 2006 (this would adjust to close to $300 million today), but it has gone on to become one of Disney's biggest selling DVDs and Blu-rays and IS HANDS DOWN Disney's top merchandise cash cow (over $5 billion in sales!!!). This will easily eclipse the first film in the first 3 weeks alone. In fact, I could be seriously low-balling this film in terms of domestic box-office. It could easily gross more than $400 million. Hell, it could outgross Toy Story 3! A billion dollars worldwide is all but assured.

One film that I could seriously be overestimating is Thor. The trailer at Comic-Con last year drew a ton of buzz, with some fans saying that they were more excited for it than any other Marvel film on the horizon. However, Comic-Con fans aren't a reliable barometer for a film's box-office potential. They are, admittedly, a niche market and historically have never been able to predict mainstream audiences' taste. See the Comic-Con enthusiasm for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World verses its eventual box-office gross if you don't believe me. It could do Iron Man numbers or it could end up doing X-Men numbers. I'm banking on Iron Man numbers, personally, but I won't be surprised if I'm completely wrong on this one. For all I know, this year's big Marvel film could be Captain America or X-Men: First Class.

One film that is a huge question mark for me is The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. Not much has been seen of the film yet, but I am thinking that Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson could prove to be potent combination at the box-office. Of course, Jackson's last two films underperformed at the box-office (at least to expectations. King Kong was actually a qualified success, but paled in comparison to his Lord of the Rings films) and Spielberg doesn't have the street cred he used to. For now, I'm going with $250 million, but it could easily go up or down as the release date draws closer.

I expect huge drop-offs for the latest installments of Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean. Nobody much liked the latest entries of either franchise, so I expect the law of diminishing returns to kick in for both. Pirates of the Caribbean is particularly vulnerable after the $100 million drop-off between the widely seen but not much liked Dead Man's Chest and the universally maligned At World's End. It's totally possible that On Stranger Tides could barely make it past $200 million. The most comparable franchise to Pirates is the Shrek franchise (well-liked/successful first entry nominated for Oscars in major categories, massively successful but mediocre second entry, third film experiences a $100 million+ drop-off due to bad will from the last entry/audiences like it even less, fourth film grosses even less than the first entry).

Anyway, that's my two cents.
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I'd also like to add that while this year's releases look to be good (at least as far as box-office is concerned...quality is another story entirely), I am very much looking forward to predicting the 2012 box-office, which will undoubtedly be a record-breaking year for Hollywood. In addition to the "Big Two" (The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit, Part 1), we're getting Star Trek 2, The Avengers, Spider-Man in 3-D, Men in Black III, The Bourne Legacy , the final Twilight film (thank God!), TWO new animated entries from PIXAR (Brave and Monsters, Inc. 2) and their first venture into live-action (John Carter of Mars), James Bond 23, Madagascar 3, and Ice Age 4. And those are just the ones that have scheduled release dates (there's also the possibility that Superman: Man of Steel will be released around Christmas). Next year's box-office should be very fun to watch.




Edited By MovieWes on 1295217708
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:22 pm

Franz Ferdinand wrote:Black Swan's success is even more leftfield when you consider that its a dark, psycho-sexual thriller - about ballet. It's a lock for $120M. I am glad for its success, but it is quite baffling.

Not to nitpick, but are we going to start a separate 2011 section for these types of threads?

BLACK SWAN is like the stereotype of what an art house movie is. There is absolutely nothing about it that would give you the sense that it is going to play well outside of big cities, but somehow it has captured the nation's attention. Just when I think I know exactly what stupid U.S. audiences will and will not see, movies like TRUE GRIT and BLACK SWAN become big hits.

I originally put this thread in the "Coming Soon" section, but OscarGuy moved it here. I figure he will move it to the 2011 section when he is ready.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:42 pm

Black Swan's success is even more leftfield when you consider that its a dark, psycho-sexual thriller - about ballet. It's a lock for $120M. I am glad for its success, but it is quite baffling.

Not to nitpick, but are we going to start a separate 2011 section for these types of threads?

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:23 pm

It is almost like the ridiculously bad movies released last weekend did not count. I know January has always been a bad month for films, where studios dump the movies they know are crap but hope can make a quick buck before disappearing. This January seems particularly bad. It says quite a bit about the films being released this weekend that they were pushed into a January release. Both still have a chance of being modest hits, but you just get the feeling the studios have given up any hope.

Of the two new movies, THE DILEMMA seems to have the best shot at actually making its budget back and being a financial success. It has actually become more famous for its offensive trailer than any excitement about the movie itself. I am sure it fills the stupid comedy slot which somehow always find an audience. I foresee a $30 m opening. If word of mouth is any good, it might limp past $100 m. Both Vaughn and James have their fans and the film faces very little competition for the next few weeks in the "comedy" department.

THE GREEN HORNET has really suffered some embarrassing schedule changes. The film was supposed to be a summer release, but then was moved to the less competitive March. However, even that was not safe enough and was dumped in January. With a budget rumored at $130 m, it does not seem likely this film will make a profit from its domestic box-office (foreign success is its only hope). As we have seen, even when a comic-book/superhero film has major buzz from the geek squad, it can still fail with general audiences (KICK-ASS, SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD). THE GREEN HORNET has been ridiculed by the geeks and is not likely to find much love from general audiences. I am thinking its opening weekend will probably also be around $30 m, but its overall take will stop around $75 m. Action/comedy hybrids usually only do well with Will Smith in the lead.

Which film will be number 1 is anyone’s guess. THE GREEN HORNET might make more money, but only thanks to its 3D surcharge. No matter who is on top, THE DILEMMA will sell more tickets and make more of a profit in the U.S.

Meanwhile, TRUE GRIT is still chugging along nicely. Based on its weekday gross, it could make close to $10 m in its 4th weekend. A big shock was BLACK SWAN jumping to number two all week. I am not sure where that came from. It expands to around 2,300 theatres this weekend, and it might be able to be in the top five this weekend. The fact it is doing all this without even a single Oscar nomination (let alone any wins) is amazing. It might actually be able to pass $100 m. THE KING’S SPEECH is also doing well, and playing better than I thought it would outside of big cities. It expands to around 1,500 theatres.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:49 pm

TRUE GRIT was so close to passing LITTLE FOCKERS last weekend, but I think it will finally happen this time. TRUE GRIT will be number 1 with $16 m. I had no idea the film was going to do so well. It does not in any way play like a mainstream film. It is a very slow and mostly quiet western, the people talk funny in it, and the three main characters are played by an old man, a little girl, and a pretty-boy actor all uglied up. However, I guess some folks were just in the mood for some high quality storytelling at the end of the year. I think TRUE GRIT could go as high as $150 m. Just amazing!

The other three big Oscar films recently released are also all doing surprisingly well. Both THE FIGHTER and THE BLACK SWAN could end up with around $80 m totals. THE KING'S SPEECH probably will not play all that well in fly-over country but is doing boffo business on the coasts. It will probably ease in to a $60 m total, though it might be able to get up to $90 m if it wins Best Picture.

The first two wide releases of 2011 sure are turkeys. I doubt neither COUNTRY STRONG nor SEASON OF THE WITCH will make more than $10 m on their opening weekend, and will probably end with totals below $30 m. Thus begins 2011 movie releases. Not with a bang but a fucking sad whimper.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:40 pm

Top 10 films of 2011

1) Transformers 3 – $375 m
2) The Hangover 2 – $300 m
3) Breaking Dawn – $300 m
4) The Deathly Hallows – $275 m
5) Kung Fu Panda 2 – $275 m
6) Cars 2 – $275 m
7) Pirates Of The Caribbean 4 – $250 m
8) X-Men First Class – $250 m
9) Happy Feet 2 – $250 m
10) Sherlock Holmes 2 – $225 m

The rest of the films to pass the century mark in order of likelihood:
Alvin And The Chipmunks 3 – $200 m
The Adventures Of Tintin – $200 m
Puss In Boots – $175 m
Captain America – $175 m
Zookeeper – $175 m
Thor – $150 m
Fast Five – $150 m
The Smurfs – $150 m
Green Lantern – $150 m
Mission Impossible 4 – $125 m
Real Steel – $125 m
Jack And Jill – $125 m
Cowboys And Aliens – $125 m
Super 8 – $125 m
Sucker Punch – $125 m
Battle: Los Angeles – $125 m
Rise Of The Apes – $125 m
Tower Heist – $125 m
New Year’s Eve – $100 m
Just Go With It – $100 m
The Dilemma – $100 m
Rango – $100 m
Hugo Cabret – $100 m
Scream 4 – $100 m
Madea’s Big Happy Family – $100 m
Friends With Benefits – $100 m
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo – $100 m




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1294432878
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow


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