2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

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rolotomasi99
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 4:16 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:Rolo, are you sure you're not exaggerating a little in order to fit your narrative? You've read varying reviews on Rango's quality? A film that has 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 on Metacritic? "I cannot tell you how many times I saw this trailer in theatres, and by the end of it the audience was usually laughing." Really? Not only have I not seen the audience laughing, I'd be hard-pressed to remember the last time an audience laughed at any preview other than for a comedy.

FWIW, although my anecdotes are no more valuable than yours or anyone elses, the audience I sat with at "The Adjustment Bureau" broke out into applause at the end, much to my surprise. (I thought the film was ludicrous.)

With RANGO, I guess it is all about expectation. When I first saw the trailers I thought it looked splendidly weird. I assumed it was going to be as well reviewed as HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON or TOY STORY 3, which had a 98% and 99% score respectively from rottentomatoes. After all, UNSTOPPABLE and ALICE IN WONDERLAND received an 86% and 80% R.T. score respectively, and I would not exactly call those films well praised.
I was not too far off with my opening weekend predix though. I read the film received a C+ Cinemascore from audiences. That seems pretty bad for a family film. I guess it was just too strange for folks. I am still looking forward to it.

As for THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU, I saw the trailer in theatres before INCEPTION and THE TOWN. Both were smarter than usual action flicks, so I would think the audience would be more welcoming to high concept films. I think it was a combination of the strange premise, the silly hats, and the ridiculous title, but there were most definitely laughter by the time the trailer ended. I assumed if this was the reaction these audiences were giving it, the Adam Sandler-Michael Bay crowd probably thought it looked really weird.
I definitely underestimated the opening gross, most likely because I was thinking about the reaction of younger audiences. Apparently the film was a big hit with the over 40 crowd. I just assumed they would all be seeing THE KING'S SPEECH and THE FIGHTER this weekend.

I swear Sonic Youth, I have no nefarious agenda. I do not look at any of the studio tracking before posting my predicitons. I just go off of the trailers, reviews, internet chatter, and general hype for a film. I look at past grosses for similar films and then do my best to predict where each film will end up.
I admittedly have a very different taste in films than general U.S. audiences (whom I lovingly refer to as the "idiot masses"). The film I am most looking forward to out of this entire year is THE TREE OF LIFE. The only big budget Hollywood film I am eagerly anticipating is SUPER 8. I will probably also check out X-MEN: FIRST CLASS and THE DEATHLY HALLOWS on the big screen, but mostly just due to childhood fondness for the X-men and Harry Potter universes rather than love for the films themselves.

Usually only MovieWes joins me in this thread. It is great to have you contribute as well Sonic Youth.
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Mar 05, 2011 12:55 pm

Early numbers are beginning to trickle in, and it looks as if Rango earned around $11 million on Friday and is looking at an estimated $40 million opening weekend.

The Adjustment Bureau earned $8 million on Friday and is being projected to make around $23 million for the weekend.
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Postby Sonic Youth » Sat Mar 05, 2011 9:54 am

Rolo, are you sure you're not exaggerating a little in order to fit your narrative? You've read varying reviews on Rango's quality? A film that has 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 on Metacritic? "I cannot tell you how many times I saw this trailer in theatres, and by the end of it the audience was usually laughing." Really? Not only have I not seen the audience laughing, I'd be hard-pressed to remember the last time an audience laughed at any preview other than for a comedy.

FWIW, although my anecdotes are no more valuable than yours or anyone elses, the audience I sat with at "The Adjustment Bureau" broke out into applause at the end, much to my surprise. (I thought the film was ludicrous.)
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 04, 2011 6:02 pm

Well, here we are in the first weekend of March and the films are still feeling like the gang from the Island of Misfit Toys. Some of them are just of laughably low quality, or are of high quality but have a very nonmainstream sensibility and story.

I think the safe bet for number one is RANGO. I have read some pretty varying reviews on the films quality and entertainment. Everyone pretty much agrees the film is different than most animated fare. It goes beyond just being sophisticated like Pixar films or clever like the SHREK series. Many are saying it has to be the weirdest animated film from a major studio. Given how well GNOMEO AND JULIET is doing, it seems pretty clear family audiences are desperately in need of some entertainment. I suspect RANGO will open to a strong $40 m. However, unlike HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, I doubt it will have all that much word of mouth to keep it going. I am assuming it will run out of steam around $125 m.

THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU is another film I keep reading conflicting reports on. The film was supposed to be released last year but was pushed back. The same thing happened to SHUTTER ISLAND, which this film shares a love of Fedora hats, and it was still able to be a big hit. However, SHUTTER ISLAND was a straight up scary film from a master director which received generally good reviews. This is a very strange looking sci-fi film from some nobody with rather weak reviews. I cannot tell you how many times I saw this trailer in theatres, and by the end of it the audience was usually laughing. Not a good sign. Something tells me Matt Damon alone will help this have a $13 m opening on its way to a $35 m total at most.

BEASTLY and TAKE ME HOME TONIGHT are also films which were pushed back from earlier release dates and both seem like they should have just gone straight to DVD. If either of them makes more than $10 m this weekend I will be surprised. $25 m seems like the most either one will make in their entire run.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:52 pm

The only upside to all these awful films week after week is that the Oscar films have been raking it in. This weekend will once again give them time to earn money as nominees before they earn more money as Oscar winners.

The Farrelly Brothers have not had a hit in awhile. I have read HALL PASS reaches some pretty sexist lows, even for them. I cannot be sure how much people are eager to see this piece of shit, but just based on their past films I think a $15 m opening is likely. I would be shocked (and disgusted) if it did any better than $40 m.

DRIVE ANGRY joins the league of films with great titles and trailers that build up a bunch of internet buzz but fail to produce big grosses. Similar to MACHETE and SNAKES ON A PLANE, I would be surprised if this film breaks out of its grindhouse corner. It will probably make around $13 m and not make any more than $30 m altogether.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Feb 18, 2011 5:59 pm

Ugh, more movie doldrums. I am assuming this will be a pretty close race for number one (though not like last weekend).

Comedians in fat suits has been a pretty reliable genre at the box-office, and BIG MOMMAS seems to give fans of the first two more of the same. I think the idiot masses might have been let down by Adam Sandler, so they will all be rushing to this one in its opening weekend. It will probably do $30 m first weekend, and $80 m total run.

UNKNOWN seems more cerebral (which is not the same as being smart) than most action fans want. Just based on people's fond memories (why?) of TAKEN, this film will open well with $25 m, but will probably not have its same legs and come to a halt around $75 m.

The career of Alex Pettyfer reminds me of that scene in MEAN GIRLS, "Stop trying to make fetch happen!" Seriously, Hollywood really wants this pretty boy to become a movie star. So far US audiences have not been interested. I doubt I AM NUMBER FOUR will change that. It will probably find similar success as JUMPER. A $25 m opening and a $75 m total.

March cannot come fast enough. We need some fun movies. This shit is just weak.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:12 pm

I keep waiting for Adam Sandler's star to fade, but he still is able to pack people in to his horrible movies. JUST GO WITH IT looks no different. Being the only new romantic comedy this Valentine weekend, I imagine it will have a healthy $40 m opening. The next few weekends has a few frat boy and romantic comedies opening, so I do not think it will rake in that much. Hopefully it will top out at $130 m.

The second biggest film of the weekend will definitely be the evil brat who causes little girl riots and hysterical screaming/crying. I am assuming NEVER SAY NEVER is going to be as successful as the Miley Cyrus docu-concert, and open around $30 m. Hopefully it will fall quickly and only make around $70 m. I never thought I would say this, but I really hope the Adam Sandler film is number one this weekend rather than this piece-of-shit.

The other two films look like they were almost straight-to-DVD releases. THE EAGLE could be kitschy fun with a little beefcake mixed with action. I doubt many are going to be rushing to see it. GNOMEO AND JULIET look like third-tier animation similar to ALPHA AND OMEGA. Even with the limited options for kids I doubt many want to see this. Around a $10 m opening and a $30 m total for both films if they are lucky.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Feb 04, 2011 6:02 pm

Well, most folks will be watching that big football thing on Sunday and preparing for that big football thing on Saturday, but for those that do decide to go to the movie this weekend the pickings are dreadful.

We have two small films. One is a teen remake of SINGLE WHITE FEMALE and another is a silly looking adventure film. Last year the romantic drama DEAR JOHN did quite well, so I am pretty surprised there is nothing like that this year. THE ROOMMATE will probably be number one. I would be surprised if it made more than $12 m this weekend. Not even 3-D will be able to help the action-cave film SANCTUM. It will probably be second with $10 m. Both films will ultimately make around $25 m.

Oscar films will all continue to do well in the top ten.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:53 pm

This weekend is the chance for Oscar films to shine. Several Best Picture nominees have already seen a bump from the Tuesday Oscar nominations, but this weekend will be their best chance to really capitalize on the Academy's recognition. It is fortunate for them the only two wide releases this weekend are small genre films which will appeal mostly to the younger crowds who ignore the Oscars anyways.

Both THE MECHANIC and THE RITE have equal chance of being number one. Both are small budget films with no big stars. However, Stratham has his loyal fanbase and their is not much else out there for folks looking for some bloody action in cinemas. THE RITE will appeal more to the young women who flock to scary movies, though many of them are probably going to catch BLACK SWAN. I think both will make around $15 m in their opening weekends, with THE MECHANIC ultimately ending up on top. Their final tallies will be around $30 to $35 m.




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Postby MovieWes » Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:53 pm

So apparently this past weekend, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader became 20th Century Fox's first film in 13 months to cross $100 million at the domestic box-office. I never even noticed that they had been devoid of any hits last year. It's almost impossible to fathom that a major studio like Fox only had one movie make over $100 million last year, especially after coming off the biggest hit of all-time, Avatar. Their second highest-grossing 2010 release was Date Night with $98.7 million.

Of course, it is looking as if Black Swan is going to cross $100 million soon, so it may very well turn out that their highest grossing 2010 release will be an R-rated arthouse thriller released under their Fox Searchlight banner. Very odd.




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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:46 pm

Poor Natalie Portman. All she wants to do is bask in her awards glory, but she gets stuck having to promote this piece of shit film opening this weekend. While some folks in another thread think it could actually keep her from winning an Oscar. I think the worst that can happen is her not being able to focus on enjoying all the positive attention she has been receiving since BLACK SWAN was released.

As the only major release, I think NO STRINGS ATTACHED has a pretty clear shot to number one. Portman is "hot" right now, and the ladies who like this type of film will be happy to have something to see. I think it will open around $20 m, and finish around $60 m.

THE GREEN HORNET did slightly better than I predicted its opening weekend, but its weekday grosses were really weak. It will probably fall to $15 m for its second weekend. It is on track for a $80 m total.

While I was certainly happy to see THE DILEMMA make half of what I predicted for its opening weekend, I was discouraged to see it hold better over the weekdays than I thought it would. The majority of THE DILEMMA's audience was women, so it will hopefully fall to a $10 m second weekend. $100 m is definitely out of the question. I would be surprised if it did much more than $60 m.

The four big Oscar contenders are still going strong in the top ten. They will get a big boost next week when the Oscar nominations are announced. TRUE GRIT will definitely pass $150 m and BLACK SWAN will definitely pass $100 m. Depending on how many Oscars they win, THE KING'S SPEECH and THE FIGHTER could pass $100 m. After a disappointing 2009, where stupid films ruled the box-office and art house films could not break into the mainstream; I must say 2010 has been a very pleasant surprise. Four art house films making more than a $100 m is very cool indeed.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:23 pm

I guess having 500 millions "friends" can only get you so far.

I am really interested to see how BLACK SWAN does overseas. It just seems like the kind of arty movie which will do really well in any language (like BABEL, THE READER, LOST IN TRANSLATION, etc.). I mean if it can make $100 m in the U.S. alone, $200 m from the rest of the world is a very real possibility. Not bad for a movie that cost $13 m to make.

I doubt TRUE GRIT will find equal success outside of the U.S. THE KING'S SPEECH will probably do well, though I am reminded of how THE QUEEN was a much bigger hit stateside than it was in the rest of the world. 127 HOURS will probably make almost as much in the U.K. alone as it has here. The failure of that film is the biggest surprise of the year. I guess maybe bragging about audience members passing out due to the violence was not the best marketing tool.




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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby Okri » Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:28 pm

It'll stay ahead of Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, The Town (barely), and The Kids are All Right. Lower half, but whodathunkit anyway?

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Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:31 pm

MovieWes wrote:Even more surprising is that the so-called "hip" movie that is poised to sweep this year's Oscars, The Social Network, at $95 million could prove to be one of the lowest grossing films nominated for the Big Award.

The upside for The Social Network -- in Oscar terms -- is that it got out there and established itself before all the other big-name films showed.

The downside -- commercially -- is it missed the lucrative Christmas period (where all these films picked up free money) and will now miss whatever remains of the Oscar bump, post-nominations. Sony apparently feels it has more to gain in DVD than it would have with an Oscar re-release.

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Postby MovieWes » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:06 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:Meanwhile, TRUE GRIT is still chugging along nicely. Based on its weekday gross, it could make close to $10 m in its 4th weekend. A big shock was BLACK SWAN jumping to number two all week. I am not sure where that came from. It expands to around 2,300 theatres this weekend, and it might be able to be in the top five this weekend. The fact it is doing all this without even a single Oscar nomination (let alone any wins) is amazing. It might actually be able to pass $100 m. THE KING’S SPEECH is also doing well, and playing better than I thought it would outside of big cities. It expands to around 1,500 theatres.

I too am very surprised by the success of these three films. I would never have expected Black Swan to make more than $40 million domestic, tops, but it is looking like it is going to earn around $125 million, maybe more after the Oscar nominations come out.

I can't say that I'm more surprised by the box-office for True Grit, as it always seemed to have more widespread appeal than something like Black Swan, but I would never have guessed it to become the blockbuster it is. The Coens have never had a film gross more than $75 million, and if it weren't for its sweeping of the Oscars, No Country for Old Men would never have made that much. True Grit is a lock for $170 million and could possibly outgross Dances with Wolves to become the highest-grossing Western ever.

The biggest head-scratcher for me has to be The King's Speech. For a pretentious movie aimed squarely at "old farts," it is doing amazingly well at the box-office. At this pace, it could end up grossing anywhere between $85-100 million. Even more surprising is that the so-called "hip" movie that is poised to sweep this year's Oscars, The Social Network, at $95 million could prove to be one of the lowest grossing films nominated for the Big Award.




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"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)


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