2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:05 am

A couple of notes. When compared with recent reboots like Casino Royale and Batman Begins, that opening isn't too bad at all. It must build word of mouth and some say it could manage to top Super 8 at the box office in its second weekend I don't buy it, but I'd love to see it happen. Not that I have anything against Super 8, we're watching this weekend, but I'm hoping for X-Men's sake as I think it may be the best comic adaptation yet IMO (slightly better than Dark Knight IMO).

And this is not the first big budget film of the Summer. Pirates was (technically, the Summer tentpole season began in May, but if you want to go strictly June, July, August, then perhaps). But here's the deal. X-Men First Class had a production budget of $160 million. Super 8 has only a $50 million production budget. So, X-Men was the first large budget film since Pirates.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:05 am

Can someone please explain to me what the holy fucking hell is wrong with U.S. audiences? Studios are starting to actually put money into producing quality comic book films but audiences are refusing to go! X-MEN: FIRST CLASS got the best reviews of any action film this year, yet it made less money on its opening weekend as the last pieces of crap FANTASTIC FOUR sequel. I know WOLVERINE was so awful it drove many people away, but the drop is still shocking. With almost 25,000 votes, X-MEN: FIRST CLASS is rated 8.2 on imdb but may not even pass $150 m, while PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 has a 6.9 and will pass $200 m this weekend. Very bizarre.

Now we have the first original large budget film in a while, but I just have no faith in U.S. audiences. The film earned good reviews (though not as good as X-MEN: FIRST CLASS, which surprised me), but it has absolutely no stars -- though it does have my crush Kyle Chandler. I have read several pieces online about how the ad campaign has been too mysterious, but I appreciate seeing a film without already having experiences all its "Wow" moments. If this film is as good as everyone hopes it will be, I think it will do better than three times its opening weekend like the typical summer film. Some have suggested folks are already on action film overload, so maybe an old adventure story will be appreciated by both older and younger audiences. $35 m is my guess for its opening weekend, and if the movie is really as magical as the adds want us to believe I think it could chug along to a $150 m total. The film is going to have to distinguish its self from noisy distractions like THE GREEN LANTERN, CARS 2, and TRANSFORMERS 3. Other than THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, it is the only big budget summer film I have been looking forward to. I sure hope it does not disappoint.

P.S. I agree, fuck STAR TREK. The action scenes were fun, but sweet Jesus that had to be the stupidest plot I might have ever experienced in a Hollywood film. There were so many plot holes and huge illogical leaps. I sure hope they put a little more effort into the screenplay for the next film.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:39 pm

Fuck JJ Abrams' Star Trek.

I think Kung Fu Panda 2 is a fine product and while I couldn't really see a reason to give it a sequel, the sequel makes a lot of sense now. It's even got some nice raw emotion scenes. Besides, what made the original so wonderful was the interesting, traditional artistic style used in the early Furious Five scene. We get more of that here and the animation is gorgeous. While I think Seth Rogen got way too many lines this time around and some of the humor falls flat, I think it was definitely worth watching.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Sabin » Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:39 pm

I honestly don't think people felt the need to see another Kung Fu Panda. The title itself is such a novelty! I think people just decided to see one needless sequel over the other that weekend. *

(* -- I haven't seen either one. I have no doubt in my mind that KFP2>>>>>TH2...but neither one demands a sequel.)

Wow, you really don't like J.J. Abrams' Star Trek.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Fri Jun 03, 2011 10:31 am

Fuck JJ Abrams' Star Trek (my new statement every time someone brings that film up).

Anyway, I don't know why Panda isn't doing better business. It's quite a wonderful work. DreamWorks still has a ways to go to match the power of Pixar, but I no longer dread each DreamWorks release. This was a delightful little film with some amazing animation and Gary Oldman may give his best performance to date in it.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jun 03, 2011 7:17 am

Well I was right on the money with my Fri-Sun THE HANGOVER 2 prediction, but way off with KUNG FU PANDA 2. I just do not understand why the sequel did so little. I thought folks loved that stupid little film. Since the film still has two weeks before CARS 2 comes out, I think it will still make around $250 m. THE HANGOVER 2 will probably fall 50% from its Fri-Sun weekend.

The number one film is obviously going to be X-MEN: FIRST CLASS. In the comic book world, the X-Men have always been one of the most popular titles, yet the movies have never been able to pass $250 m. I think this one will finally be able to do that. It has to contend with the stink of WOLVERINE, which opened strong and then faded very quickly. However, much like the most recent STAR TREK, I think this film will be able to bring in the fans and break out into general audiences. The great reviews will certainly help it, though unlike almost every other action film this summer it will not have the 3D surcharge to inflate its grosses. Still, I think a $80 m opening is very likely with a final gross around $250 m.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:35 pm

Franz Ferdinand (May 28, 2011, 1:47):

Friday estimates for the two new movies are roughly $28M for Hangover 2 (a two-day total close to $60M), and $13M for Kung Fu Panda 2.

Let's revise: Hangover 2's Friday is an even $30M for a $61.6M two-day total. That's a fantastic hold from a heavily front-loaded opening day. Beyond fantastic. Depressing.

In better news, The Tree of Life opened with $115,000 on only 4 screens: it should make close to half a million for a $130,00 average screen.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:34 pm

rolotomasi99 (May 27, 2011, 12:34):

[quote=Franz Ferdinand,May 27 2011,2:51]The Hangover was the cinematic zenith of early 21st century douchebaggery. After the massive hoopla on Thursday dies down - and, fingers crossed, a sudden and poisonous Twitter attack over the rest of the weekend - I sincerely hope it doesn't make even half of the original's total.

I thought Kung Fu Panda had its charms: yes, beautifully animated, if slightly lacking in originality. I haven't seen a lot of ads for this new one, and the ones I have do not interest me much.

It already feels like it will be a long summer with nothing but turds.[/quote]
I was off by $5 m on my predix for THE HANGOVER 2's Thursday gross, and off by $15 m with KUNG FU PANDA 2. Of course a kids film could not make that much money on a weekday, especially since most schools have not let out yet for summer. Very silly of me. As for my weekend predix, it seems pretty clear THE HANGOVER 2 is going to have a huge first weekend. I would love for it to make less than the first film, but it faces absolutely no competition for several weeks in terms of adult comedies. GROWN UPS was able to make more than $160 m even though it has a lowly 5.8 rating on imdb simply because there was nothing else for stupid people to laugh at.

Hey, Franz Ferdinand I think this summer line up is also pretty pathetic. Even the Pixar film this year is a sequel to my least favorite Pixar flick. Ugh. I cannot wait for THE TREE OF LIFE to come to my neighborhood. Other than that, all I have to look forward to is THE DEATHLY HALLOWS and SUPER 8.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:31 pm

Franz Ferdinand (May 27, 2011, 2:52):

Midnight figures for Hangover 2 are in: a massive $10.4M. All together: UGH.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:31 pm

Franz Ferdinand (May 27, 2011, 2:51):

The Hangover was the cinematic zenith of early 21st century douchebaggery. After the massive hoopla on Thursday dies down - and, fingers crossed, a sudden and poisonous Twitter attack over the rest of the weekend - I sincerely hope it doesn't make even half of the original's total.

I thought Kung Fu Panda had its charms: yes, beautifully animated, if slightly lacking in originality. I haven't seen a lot of ads for this new one, and the ones I have do not interest me much.

It already feels like it will be a long summer with nothing but turds.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:28 pm

rolotomasi99 (May 26, 2011, 2:09):

I am starting to wonder if any film is going to make more than $100 m in one weekend (Friday to Sunday) in this entire year. More and more, films are opening on Thursday or Wednesday, leaving them with smaller Fri-Sun totals. In the end they still make buttloads of money, but the bragging rights of a huge opening weekend disappear when you bleed off your grosses in early weekday releases. This weekend could have been the first time two movies opened to more than $100 m at the same time. Both films are hotly anticipated sequels to films which already had strong opening weekends. Plus, neither one is going to be competing much for the other’s audience members. One is a raunchy comedy and the other is a family film. However, because they both are opening early on Thursday, they might only come close to $100 m for their Fri-Sun take. Oh, well. I guess the double $100 m weekend will have to wait for some other time. Both films are going to make a huge amount of money this holiday weekend. I honestly cannot figure out which one will be on top. I suspect it will be very close either way.

I saw clips and trailers from THE HANGOVER and found it absolutely despicable looking. From reviews, I know the film’s laughs came were based on misogyny, racism, and homophobia. I am not sure if anyone around here enjoyed it, but it sure sounds like it was a good time for bigoted folks. The sequel apparently promises more of the same. Thankfully this time critics are no longer back this shit up with praise. The sequel earned a pathetic 33% on R.T., though that will not stop folks from checking it out. Like I said, the Thursday opening is throwing off how much the weekend will look, but I think it could earn $25 m on Thursday with another $75 m over the weekend. While the first one was hugely popular, I doubt the sequel is going to pull in anyone who did not see the original film in theatres. I think it will end its run north of the first film but slightly south of $300 m.

I know KUNG FU PANDA earned quite a bit of praise, but I was not impressed. The jokes seemed like the same tired cultural references and clumsy action pieces from the SHREK series. I will however say I think it was one of the most beautifully animated films I have ever seen. The backgrounds and settings were just gorgeous, though the character work was pretty standard. The sequel has earned decent reviews, and families will be eager to take their kid to a new animated film lest they have to sit through RIO one more time. Since school is still in for many kids, I doubt the Thursday gross will be huge, but it might be enough to take away from the film making more than $100 m on Fri-Sun. Maybe $20 m its first day, and $80 m over the weekend. Since no little kid films open next weekend, and the JUDY MOODY flick looks like it will not put up much resistance, KUNG FU PANDA 2 should do quite well. I think it will come in around $275 m.

I originally thought PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 was going to make $250 m, but at this point I think it will limp over $200 m and collapse somewhere closer to $225 m. It had the worst weekend of the series in terms of attendance when you factor in the 3D surcharge. Also, it has the lowest IMDB ranking of all the films, even the derided part 3, and its mid-week grosses show it falling quickly. Plus, it is facing major competition for its family audience and its adult audience. The only folks left to see it (or see it again) are the teenagers too old for KUNG FU PANDA 2 and too young for THE HANGOVER 2. I think its Fri-Sun gross will be close to $35 m. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
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Re:

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:26 pm

rolotomasi99 (May 26, 2011, 9:27):

MovieWes wrote:After seeing the teaser trailer for The Adventures of Tintin, I am convinced that Steven Spielberg is going to post his biggest ticket seller since Jurassic Park. $400 million is, to me, almost a guarantee and I'm not ruling out $500 million either. This is going to be a huge crowd-pleaser.


MovieWes, I was all ready to write how ridiculous $400 m is, let alone $500 m. I was going to second what Franz Ferdinand said about MARS NEEDS MOM and the uncanny valley of motion capture. I was also going to point out what a ridiculously crowded holiday season 2011 has. THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN comes out 1 week after ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS 3, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4, and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2. Other films still in theatres will include ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, THE MUPPETS, HUGO CABRET, HAPPY FEET 2, PUSS IN BOOTS, and BREAKING DAWN. A couple weeks later MYSTERIOUS ISLAND opens.
I was going to say it is unrealistic to think one film could make that much money with so many films competing for film-goers dollars.

However, I remember you predicted AVATAR was going to make more than $500 m when I and many others thought it would not break $300 m.
I never saw that monster coming, and am still confused about why it made so much money. It cannot possibly just be the F/X because lots of films with great F/X never make that much money. It was not great storytelling or anything because that shit was one of the weakest James Cameron films ever. Whatever it was, you guessed it right. I am still not convinced THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN will make that much money for all the reasons I listed above, but I cannot say you are wrong. You have a knack of being right about what the idiot masses will like.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Sat May 28, 2011 2:23 pm

rolotomasi99 (May 26, 2011, 9:15):

I had this all ready to post on Friday May 20th, but then the site was down. I still wanted to post it, even though I was off by $5 m with PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 and BRIDESMAIDS fell 20% rather than 10%.

Well, there is absolutely no doubt PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 is going to be number one this weekend. However, there is some confusion about how big a weekend it will have. Some are thinking it will break records (doubtful), others think it will just barely make $100 m (possible), and I am going against the grain and saying it will have a relatively small weekend at $85 m.

The PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN franchise has been very successful, but much like another huge franchise from the aughts – SHREK – Captain Jack’s third film left people pretty disappointed after the strong first two. In fact, will the second and third film differed only $20 m in their opening weekends, the second film made around $100 m more in its total gross from the second, much like the first and second SHREK films. The fourth SHREK film opened to a disappointing $70 m and had a final total of $238 m, despite the 3D boost. While the series still had its fans, many people were sick of it after the disappointing third film.

I am guessing the same will happen with the fourth PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN film. An $85 m weekend is very possible since both THOR and FAST FIVE are still going strong for those looking for an action fix, and BRIDESMAIDS is going to have a great second weekend (I bet it drops less than 10%) winning the dollars of many adult moviegoers. With X-MEN: FIRST CLASS opening next weekend, followed by a steady stream of huge films, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 will probably close with a weak $250 m. Ultimately, the film will be saved by its overseas grosses, but I get the feeling U.S. audiences have lost their love for Captain Jack’s antics.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Wed May 18, 2011 10:32 pm

The names are huge, the timing is right: Tintin definitely has promise to be a huge success. I know this has been discussed, but does the failure of "Mars Needs Moms" (huh, what? I know) set some precedent for Tintin's motion-capture, or is it fail-proof?

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Postby MovieWes » Tue May 17, 2011 12:45 pm

After seeing the teaser trailer for The Adventures of Tintin, I am convinced that Steven Spielberg is going to post his biggest ticket seller since Jurassic Park. $400 million is, to me, almost a guarantee and I'm not ruling out $500 million either. This is going to be a huge crowd-pleaser.
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