2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[Sabin]

Well, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt 1 made about $300 mil. It was a part one with what I'm told a sectioned off non-ending, so that probably hurt it a little. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince made about $300 mil. A few million more, but whatever. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix made about $300 mil. Closer to $290, but close enough to $300. Same with Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, which made $290. Again, that's close enough to $300. Both The Chamber of Secrets and The Prisoner of Azkaban made closer to $250, but The Sorcerer's Stone made $317.

When you average all these out, you get almost $300 mil per film. Closer to that than not. This is the last in a series, so we'll give it a slight bump...let's say this one makes $310 mil. That sounds reasonable. It's already on its way. And it cannot oust Transformers: Dark of the Moon from top slot.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Looks like the "very-first-showing" principle stood up hard for Potter, as it has in the past: the official WB estimate for the weekend is $168.6M, beating the Dark Knight quite comfortably. However, it also indicates a crushing 54% fall on Saturday from its (midnight included) Friday gross - front-loaded to the core. How it bodes for the rest of its run is to be seen by the mid-week grosses.

[rolotomasi99]

Wow! I guess everyone really, really wanted to see the new trailer for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. I hope they stayed for the wizard movie playing afterward.

Seriously, though, what interesting symmetry for the film which (most likely) will topple THE DARK KNIGHT's record to play the first teaser for its sequel...which will most likely topple THE DEATHLY HALLOWS' record. THE DARK KNIGHT RISES may even be able to have a $100 m opening day. That will be amazing.

For now, though, it is THE DEATHLY HALLOWS that is blowing my mind. If someone would have told me it was going to make $92 m in its opening day, I would have said they knew nothing about predicting the box-office. I cannot even comprehend how that many human beings in this country saw the same movie in a single day. Granted, it was thanks to a huge midnight screening gross. It is interesting to note that while THE DEATHLY HALLOWS easily beat THE DARK KNIGHT for the highest midnight gross ($43.5 vs a paltry $18.5), THE DARK KNIGHT slightly beat THE DEATHLY HALLOWS for the highest non-midnight Friday gross ($48.7 vs $48.6). As others have said, for super-fans it was about seeing it not just the first weekend, not just the first day, but the very first show period. I am not sure if this means the Saturday grosses are going to take a huge tumble, but at this point it hardly matters.

It seems there is little doubt the film will pass $400 m. I also expect it will pass $1 b over seas alone. This means it will come close to beating TITANIC's worldwide record, but not quite.

I am sure at this point the executives at Warner Bros. are begging J.K. Rowlings to allow them to continue the Hogwarts universe, possibly with prequels following the teens years of Dumbledore and possibly the rise of Voldermort.

[Franz Ferdinand]

$43.5M midnight + $48.6M day = $92.1M opening day for Harry. In keeping with the symmetry, this is more than Sorcerer's Stone grossed in its record-breaking weekend. At this point The Dark Knight's weekend record seems all but ready to topple, and we could prognosticate about the potential first $200M weekend? I highly doubt it, but it did gain a tremendous start. At this point, I've read that only 43% of its Friday came from 3D screens, so there could be tremendous repeat potential there.

In addition, the international gross on Friday was a further $75M in 59 countries, which puts its worldwide cume at $157.5M, and a global gross of $249.6M - and this is through 24 hours. Warner Bros. and JK Rowling have to have some wicked grins on their faces right now.

[rolotomasi99]

As the tagline says, it all ends. After eight movies (which should have been seven…yes, I am still angry), the Harry Potter franchise/money machine is coming to an end. I never expected this series to produce quality films, and the first two movies confirmed my fears. However, that all changed with THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (prior to this final film, the highest rated of the series by critics). Alfonso Cuaron showed the world how great these films could be. While all the subsequent movies varied in quality, they were certainly better than I had ever thought Hollywood were capable of for a kids fantasy film.

Now we come to the final film and it looks like things are going to go out with a bang, both in the film and at the box-office. The first half of this film released last year opened to a huge $125 m, but I was surprised it was unable to pass $300 m. It actually made less than the previous film. I think the more subdued nature of the film kept there from being much repeat business. This film however seems to be pretty action packed and thus will not only open big but have a great overall run. I agree with what others have said about it coming awfully close to THE DARK KNIGHT's opening record without passing it. It will probably open with $150 m, and have a final tally around $350 m. Since it seems pretty clear TRANSFORMERS 3 has very little chance of passing $400 m, it seems THE DEATHLY HALLOWS could actually be the number one film this year. I think it will be a pretty close race. After all, even with a huge opening weekend it faces some pretty good competition from CAPTAIN AMERICA next week and then COWBOYS AND ALIENS, RISE OF THE APES, and THE SMURFS down the road.

As for the other film opening wide this weekend, I am not sure if opening WINNIE THE POOH against the biggest kids franchise ever was stupid or brilliant. There will certainly be many sold out theatres, and I think the parents with little kids may just take the tots to the quieter and sweeter film. The more recent Pooh films have not done very well at the box-office though THE TIGGER MOVIE made $45 m eleven years ago. I think it will have a small $15 m opening, but possibly ride word-of-mouth to a healthy $60 m opening.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Early estimates of the midnight screenings for Harry Potter are in, and in one word: wow. $43.5M. I think the opening day record is guaranteed.

[OscarGuy]

I was reading today that of the 3,800 screens showing the film at midnight, 1,400 had reported advanced sales totaling $25 million. The current midnight record holder is one of the Twilight movies with $30 million. It's going to be blown out of the water.

[Franz Ferdinand]

What do we think about Harry Potter's chances of breaking the opening weekend record/where it ends up overall?
- $73M on Friday to snatch the opening day record, including midnight screens.
- $145M weekend to fall slightly short of Batman.
- $389M total to become the highest grossing of the series, and $1.4B worldwide to become the 10th movie to ever hit the billion (and first Potter to do so).

There would be a wonderful symmetry in DH2 taking the opening weekend record 10 years after Sorcerer's Stone did it, and if enough people who originally saw Sorcerer's Stone but didn't always return for the subsequent movies show up - taken in by the spectacle and pop culture perfect storminess of DH2 - there is an outside chance. Nonetheless, I expect it will become the highest grossing Potter, and will clean up at the Oscars (in my dreams).

[MovieWes]

Cars 2 has also been doing well during the weekdays. Weekdays are very critical for a film's box-office success, especially for family films during the summer months when school is out. Yes, films tend to make more money on the weekends, but more than a quarter (in some cases, a third or more) of a film's box-office will be made between Monday and Thursday. In fact, weekdays are really where a film's legs come into play. Cars 2 will be fine, even with weak weekend numbers. I'm guessing that its run will finish between $205-215 million (definitely not a disgrace). And I would be shocked if the DVD/Blu-ray and merchandise sales weren't huge.

[Sabin]

Yes. While it's not doing Toy Story 3 money, it's worth noting that it's also not doing Up money which is a little more shocking to me. I really underestimated how well Up would do at the box office. This is largely due to Cars 2 dropping far more in its second weekend than Up. It's doing better than Ratatouille and WALL-E. Overseas, Cars 2 is just taking off and again, it's those toy sales that are going to validate this film like nobody's business.

[MovieWes]

I wouldn't exactly call Cars 2 a box-office disgrace. It is keeping at around the same pace as the first Cars and is doing better than Ratatouille. It should still pass $200 million. Sure, it's not Toy Story 3, but it already has $135 million after 2 weeks and will probably be a little bit under $160 million by the end of the weekend.

[rolotomasi99]

Wow! This summer has been pretty disappointing. Almost all the big movies have performed below expectations. The only outright bomb of all the big films is THE GREEN LANTERN, but all the sequels have made noticeably less than their predecessors, and no new film has has really taken off. THOR did slightly better than some people expected, but it certainly did not blow anyone away. The only true break out hit has been BRIDESMAIDS, which is on its way to making $170 m. CARS 2 has now matched its critical disappointment with box-office disgrace as well. No Pixar film has ever dropped 50% in its second weekend, let alone the shocking 60% of this black sheep. Unless this third weekend is really strong, CARS 2 will have far and away sold the least amount of tickets of any Pixar film. Its final gross may be around $170 m, which is only slightly more than the disappointing KUNG FU PAND 2. As for the film which I thought was bullet-proof, the grosses for TRANSFORMERS 3 are certainly not impressive. It is selling less tickets than the previous two films, and it will face some stiff competition in the next few weeks after this one. The final Harry Potter film might actually have a shot at making more than this piece of junk.

Whatever TRANSFORMERS 3 drops in its second weekend, it is still going to be number one. The race for number two is going to be close between two very different comedies. R-rated comedies have been doing pretty well this summer, with the aforementioned BRIDESMAIDS dominating, THE HANGOVER 2 opening huge, and BAD TEACHER benefiting from that trend. Likewise, HORRIBLE BOSSES might do well with its dark humor and surprising comedic performances from the titular bosses. The reviews are certainly better than BAD TEACHER and THE HANGOVER, though nowhere near as good as BRIDESMAIDS. I think a $30 m opening and a $120 m total is doable.

The usually consistent family films have really been disappointing this summer, even more than the action flicks. I am not sure what that is all about. Given how badly MR. POTTER'S PENGUINS did, I am wondering if ZOOKEEPER can triumph. It seems like the advertising has been pushing it as the type of kids comedy that even stupid adults can enjoy, like THE PACIFIER or something. $25 m opening with a $75 m total might be possible, but considering how badly all the other kiddie films have done I would not be surprised by much lower grosses.

[MovieWes]

I don't know what else could top it all, but maybe Disney will pick up the mantle and yield a Best Picture win for Winnie the Pooh?

I think I can safely say that Winnie the Pooh will not win Best Picture this year, lol.

[Greg]

So far, The Tree Of Life has made $7.5 M. It will be interesting to see how well it does when it goes into wide release this Friday.

[OscarGuy]

I don't think Rango will win this year. I just think it's a bit too bizarre for the Academy. $123 M is a great total, but it would be the lowest grossing animated feature winner since Spirited Away. It's possible Kung Fu Panda 2, which is a wonderful movie and got shafted at the box office, may still be able to hold on, but with both Tintin and Hugo Cabret ineligible, we might have to seek out something new. There are no new Miyaaki due out until 2012 (except a short film). But I don't think Miyazaki has another win left in him.

I just hope that Happy Feet 2 bombs and fails to even get a nomination. I don't know what else could top it all, but maybe Disney will pick up the mantle and yield a Best Picture win for Winnie the Pooh?