2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[Sabin]

Wow, I really thought Tower Heist was gonna grab it. The story of the weekend is that Puss In Boots dropped 3% for a $33 mil weekend haul. 3%! I thought for damn sure everyone who was going to see it would get it out of the way Weekend No. 1, but clearly not. That's pretty uncanny.

[Dien]

I have not seen any of the Harold and Kumar films, so beyond being the 21st century version of Cheech and Chong, I am not entirely clear what their appeal is.

NPH

[rolotomasi99]

Of the two new releases, only TOWER HEIST has even the remotest of chances at being number one.  However, it will face some fierce competition from PUSS IN BOOTS which did quite well over the week.  In their prime, a movie with Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy would be box-office gold.  However, audiences cannot expect consistency  from either stars and the previews for this film promised few laughs (though I am not the target audience for this type of humor).  Given what little competition this weekend provides for adult audiences, particularly couples, the film can expect a solid though unspectacular opening, but it faces immediate challenge by Adam Sandler’s new flick.  I think a $25 m opening and $85 m total.

I have not seen any of the Harold and Kumar films, so beyond being the 21st century version of Cheech and Chong, I am not entirely clear what their appeal is.  The first film was not a hit in theatres but found enough support on DVD to warrant a sequel which improved on its predecessor but was still not a hit.  However, since the films are inexpensive to produce, the studios will keep cranking them out.  This one adds the gimmick of 3D, but the days of folks being impressed with just anything being 3D are long over.  Also, opening against another comedy was probably not the best of ideas.  A VERY HAROLD AND KUMAR CHRISTMAS can probably expect a $15 m opening and a $40 m total.

[Sabin]

I'm going out on a limb and guessing Paranormal Activity 3 beats Puss N Boots. Everyone seems to really like the third one and this is their opportunity to see it.

[rolotomasi99]

Well, clearly the lower performance of PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2 was a fluke since people still seem very interested in this series. Given this is Halloween weekend, I would imagine the film will do quite well on its second weekend.

However, the number 1 film will definitely be the fifth entry in the SHREK series. While the fourth SHREK film did pretty poorly compared to its three predecessors, it did well enough to think PUSS IN BOOTS could be a success. Halloween weekend has never been great for opening movies, so I must say I am surprised they are releasing such a big flick now. They must want to get ahead of the onslaught of family films which will be released in November and December. Give the little competition for family audiences the film faces now and in the next few weeks, I think a $45 m opening and $180 m total seem likely.

Andrew Niccol is one of the saddest stories of unmet expectations in Hollywood. He showed such promise both as a writer and director with the one-two punch of GATTACA and THE TRUMAN SHOW. Then came SIMONE, and everything fell apart. LORD OF WAR had some promise but ultimately was not enough to renew folks’ confidence in him. I am not sure IN TIME is going to help much considering the poor reviews. The cast is certainly beautiful, and they are all expertly lit by Roger Deakins. However, the trailer struck many as silly and the failure of the far more commercial FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS shows Justin Timberlake is not a movie star. It can probably expect an opening around $10 m and a total around $30 m.

THE RUM DIARY is an odd but interesting looking movie. The trailers certainly show it is filled with some very pretty scenery. The last combination of Johnny Depp and Hunter S. Thompson was both a critical and financial failure, but this one seems to be doing better with the critics and will likewise see greater success with audiences. However, given its small number of theatres, it will still be a small box-office take. A $5 m opening and $20 m total is probably the best it can hope for.

[rolotomasi99]

This weekend seems like a no-brainer for what will be number 1. The first PARANORMAL ACTIVITY came out of nowhere to be a huge word-of-mouth hit. The sequel had one of the biggest opening weekends ever for a horror film, but its total was more than $25 m less than the first film. I am not sure if this meant people were particularly disappointed in the follow-up film, or they felt no need to see an almost carbon copy of the first. I have no doubt this third film in the series will open impressively, but lower than the last flick. Given how close we are to Halloween and how few scary films are available right now, I think a $35 m opening and a $70 m total would not be surprising.

I cannot figure out if THE THREE MUSKETEERS is going to be a huge flop like CONAN THE BARBARIAN, PRIEST, and SUCKER PUNCH; or is just going to be a mid-size success like the RESIDENT EVIL flicks this film's director is known for. The mixture of musketeer sword fighting and kung fu martial arts is exactly like the flop film THE MUSKETEER from 10 years ago. I think its wall-to-wall action advertisements will be enough to secure a $15 m opening with a quick drop to a $35 m total.

Rowan Atkinson successfully sued a British tabloid for saying he became depressed due to JOHNNY ENGLISH being a huge flop in the U.S. I am not sure why he would care about how much the film made in the U.S. since it made more than $100 m overseas. Given the few number of theatres the sequel is being released in, it seems the distributors are not expecting much success this second time around. The film will probably make around $5 m this weekend, with a $15 m total.

[rolotomasi99]

If Hugh Jackman and giant robot fisticuffs cannot break this box-office weak streak, I am not sure what can.  Given its weekday performance, REAL STEEL could easily be at the top of the box-office again.  The competition is pretty pathetic.

Only FOOTLOOSE seems to have any chance of beating REAL STEEL.  While most people complain about all these unnecessary remakes, only a handful have actually flopped.  As long as folks keep buying tickets, Hollywood will keep remaking films.  I must say I certainly never expected it to receive this good of reviews, but the opinion of critics has never really been important for the genre of teen dance films.  This one will be a small success, with an opening and final gross similar to STEP UP 3:  under $15 m and $45 m respectively.
 
I am really surprised THE BIG YEAR is being released in only 2,200 theatres.  The concept seems similar to other men-going-on-an-adventure films, like a cross between WITHOUT A PADDLE and WILD HOGS.  The trailer makes it seem like it would attract the usual audience who laugh at this type of bodily-harm comedy.  If the studio thought they had a winner on their hands they would have given it a bigger opening. They must feel the film is a stinker. I think an opening somewhere close to $10 m is possible, and unless audiences enjoy it more than the studio expects it will end around $30 m.
 
Now for something completely different:  a remake of a film pretending to be a prequel.  THE THING from 1982 was more of a faithful adaptation of John Campbell’s novella Who Goes There then an actual remake of the 1951 THE THING FROM ANOTHER WORLD.  Now we have a movie saying it will show us what happened prior to THE THING beginning, but the trailers make it look like pretty much the same movie plot wise.  However, they seemed to have replaced the slow burn tension of the first film with some action.  While I admire the film for having a woman in the lead role, that does not mean this film is anything but a cheap knock-off.  Like other sci-fi horror films, this film will not find a huge audience.  An opening around $10 m and a total in the vicinity of $20 m.

[rolotomasi99]

Of all the months of the year, September is the absolute worst time to have a movie released. Sometimes there are some surprises, but for the most part it is just dreck. Actually, last year’s September offered up a great batch of films which found critical and box-office success (THE TOWN, THE AMERICAN, WALL STREET 2, and EASY A). This September also had some critical and box-office successes (DRIVE, MONEYBALL, THE DEBT, and CONTAGION). However, the biggest money maker of all the September releases was a movie more than 15 years old.

I am assuming now that we are out of the cursed month of September, opening weekends will be more impressive. To start us off we have a movie that seems just simple-minded enough to be fun for the whole family. While REEL STEAL is clearly geared toward little kids, I imagine teens and adults are not averse to seeing it. From the few reviews I have seen, the film is action packed without being too violent, and has enough schmaltz to avoid being only for adrenaline junkies like BATTLE: LOS ANGELES. The success of DOLPHIN TALE and THE LION KING shows families are still spending money on the movies. With very little competition now or in the next few weeks, rock-em, sock-em robots could do quite well for itself. I foresee a $40 m opening and $120 m total.

I have watched the trailer for THE IDES OF MARCH twice, and I am still not sure what it is about. I thought it was just a political drama like PRIMARY COLORS, but the trailer seems to be framing it as a political thriller. Political thrillers have not lit up the box-office since the 70s. Will it do as well as the remake of THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE ($65 m) or as well as STATE OF PLAY ($37 m)? Given its star power, it should open well but its somber and talkative nature does not bode well for a strong finish. Probably can expect an opening around $15 m, and a total in the neighborhood of $45 m.

[rolotomasi99]

Wow. I am assuming the previously set two-week re-release of THE LION KING is going to be extended until the damn thing stops making money. This will probably become the first re-release since STAR WARS to make more than $100 m, pushing the overall total for the film way past $400 m. Absolutely amazing! Not as amazing are my predicting skills. Out of four new releases, the only one I got right was MONEYBALL. I was slightly off with DOLPHIN TALE, way off with KILLER ELITE, and wildly off with ABDUCTION. We shall see if I do any better this week. Something tells me THE LION KING will once again be on top.

Of the films being released in more than 1,000 theatres this weekend, DREAM HOUSE strikes me as having the best chance of being on top. It has three small stars, but with horror star power is often not needed. The plot seems awfully close to SHUTTER ISLAND, but with a possible supernatural twist. It seems like it would appeal to older crowds rather than teens and young adults. They will be more interested in THE THING or PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 coming out a few weeks later. Word of mouth is always unpredictable with scary movies, but an opening weekend close to $15 m with the standard threefold total around $45 m.

While some films can be huge even without a big star (horror, action, family films), romantic comedies really depend on the proper actors to draw female viewers in. Ana Faris was at one point touted as the next big young female star. That mantle has seemed to pass to Emma Stone. While Faris has been in some hit films, she has only found success as part of an ensemble. Her male co-star has had similar trouble making audiences fall in love with him. I am not sure if CAPTAIN AMERICA has finally helped Chris Evans break through as a star, but he is still very untested as a romantic lead. The plot of WHAT’S YOUR NUMBER does also not help its box-office prospects. Slut shaming women does not seem like the best idea behind a hit rom-com. The film does boast a stellar supporting cast, so perhaps the small number of fans of the many ex-boyfriends will help keep this from being a disaster like I DON’T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT. An opening north of $10 m and a total around $35 m will show audiences just cannot get excited about Faris or Evans.

Taking the subject of deadly illness and turning it into a mixture of humor and sadness has been a winning formula for some films, but they usually focus on women (TERMS OF ENDEARMENT, STEEL MAGNOLIAS, etc.). In fact the last dying comedy focusing on a man and co-starring Seth Rogen was a disaster (FUNNY PEOPLE). The reviews for 50/50 are very good, but I am not sure that will be enough to draw audiences in. Joseph Gordon-Levitt has certainly grown his fan base with recent hits big (INCEPTION) and small (500 DAYS OF SUMMER). This will be the first real test to see if he can pull in audiences on his name alone, though Rogen will certainly help. I think an opening around $10 m and a total around $40 m could be considered a success.

The film I will be most interested in seeing how it does is the new Christian film, COURAGEOUS. It is from the same folks who made the surprise hit, FIREPROOF. It is difficult to know what films hardcore Christians will flock to. I certainly was surprised at SOUL SURFER becoming a small hit thanks to them. From the trailer, it seems this film has higher production values than FIREPROOF and plenty of the Christian values these folks look for in their films. However, with no Christian star like Kirk Cameron it might no be a guaranteed success. Still, if the folks releasing the film know what they are doing, they should be able to advertise their film to the right folks and find support from the churches. I think the opening could be close to $10 m, and maybe around $35 m for the total.

[rolotomasi99]

I know things at the box-office are usually slow in September, but a re-release has not been at the top in around 15 years. I guess the success of THE LION KING 3D means we can expect BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, ALADDIN, et al to receive similar treatment. Sadly my prayers to the cinema gods went unanswered for DRIVE, but STRAW DOGS was a huge failure so that almost makes up for it.

Of this week’s new releases, ABDUCTION strikes me as the only one with a shot at number one. Of the three lead actors from TWILIGHT, Taylor Lautner seems the most likely to become a star apart from the series. You can tell he wants it so badly. Starring as Jason Bourne Jr. is a good start. Lautner should have no trouble pulling in the young girls who lust after him, and the action setting should help bring along their boyfriends. I am not sure adults will be all that interested in the film, but it should be a success on the scale of I AM NUMBER FOUR, which should equal a $25 m opening and a $65 m total.

MONEYBALL could pull a surprise upset and find itself atop the box-office through star power alone. The subject matter certainly is not what is going to drive people to this film. Last year offered two films about real life business ventures, and both did their best to make dry and technical subjects interesting for mass audiences. From a commercial and artistic viewpoint, THE SOCIAL NETWORK was far more successful than WALL STREET 2. Something tells me MONEYBALL is going to be more in the range of WALL STREET 2. Once again I am baffled as to why such a serious director is helming what I have heard is a funny screenplay by Aaron Sorkin (with co-writer Steve Zaillian). From a few reviews I have read, the film could have benefited from a lighter touch, though Bennett Miller is still a skilled director. I think an opening around $20 m is likely, with a $65 m total.

DOLPHIN TALE is opening in the most number of theatres, but I have a hard time seeing how it could be number one. Clearly families are looking for something to watch since they made THE LION KING a hit again. However, live action, non-talking animal films are not guaranteed hits. FREE WILLY is probably the biggest success, and this film seems to be hoping to recreate that magic. The true story of a rehabilitated dolphin undoubtedly will be sickeningly sweet, but will it be enough fun to lure in the kiddies? I think a $15 m opening is the best it can hope for since THE LION KING will still be in theatres, but if word-of-mouth is good it could extend itself to a $60 m total.

Jason Stratham must be the biggest star never to lead a hit film. In the films of his to make more than $50 m, he was only a supporting player in a large ensemble. All his starring vehicles have been small potatoes. Yet, he has incredible name recognition in the U.S. KILLER ELITE does not seem like the film to change his streak of non-hits. Robert DeNiro and Clive Owen add star power, but are also are not known to be a draw for action junkies. Anymore than $15 m this weekend and $40 m total would be quite surprising.

[rolotomasi99]

I am hoping a miracle from the cinema gods will make DRIVE the number one movie this week.  It does not have to make that much, but just being on the top would be a wonderful moment and would help encourage more people to check it out.  Other than J. EDGAR, there is no other movie this year I have been looking forward to more.  I am not sure what its Oscar prospects are, but this movie looks and sounds amazing.  Ryan Gosling has not broken out into the big leagues yet, but he is still a star.  Hopefully, the fact that CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE has become a minor hit will help encourage folks (particularly straight women) to check this film out.  The good reviews will also help.  I think a $15 m opening is possible, and if word of mouth is great a $60 m total is very possible.  I am hoping it can do even better than that, but just based on U.S. audience tastes $60 m is probably the limit.
 
I keep hoping 3D will eventually disappear like it did in the 70s.  It certainly has taken a hit since its peak in 2009 and 2010, but the LION KING re-release is one of just several 3D conversions of old films we have to look forward to in the next few years.  Other animated films have had 3D re-releases, and if the LION KING follows a similar path it will probably have an opening around $15 m and a total in the neighborhood of $40 m. Though, the LION KING is one of the most successful animated films ever and there is not much else out there for families, so it might be able to take the number one spot.
 
I am not sure why some people hate Sarah Jessica Parker so much, but it seems highly unwarranted.  She is not a great actress, but is certainly better than the majority of female “stars” in Hollywood.  I have never been a fan of her work, but some people hate her as a person.  Anyways, I really am not sure if folks are excited about I DON’T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT.  It seems like it could easily be a flop like DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS.  I imagine it might make something a bit north of $10 m opening weekend, with a total in the range of $35 m.

I loathe remakes.  I feel there are akin to identity theft since you forever have to point out you mean the earlier and superior film when discussing movies which have been remade.  This is particularly annoying with really well made films.  STRAW DOGS is an amazing movie, but also one that if not handled with expert care by a maestro like Peckinpah could be just another sickeningly exploitive horror film.  Apparently, that is exactly what this new STRAW DOGS wanted to be.  I hope this movie fails spectacularly.  The presence of hottie Alexander Skarsgard might help it, but I am hoping it has a horrible $10 m opening and a total not much more than $20 m.

[rolotomasi99]

Contagion is in 3D? That's the first I'm hearing about that.

I do know it's being released in IMAX, but come on. Who needs to see it in either format? Does foaming at the mouth need to be so vivid?

I was wrong. I read it on ComingSoon, but either Soderbergh lied to them or 3D is finally losing its appeal:

"The biggest announcement among them is that Steven Soderbergh will be releasing his virus thriller Contagion, starring Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow and Marion Cotillard in 3D on October 21, 2011. Having spoken with Soderbergh about 3D this time last year, he told ComingSoon.net how he had been suitably impressed when he was given an early sneak peek at James Cameron's Avatar, so it isn't too big a surprise that he has decided to give it a go with his next big movie."
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=66026

[Sonic Youth]

Contagion is in 3D? That's the first I'm hearing about that.

I do know it's being released in IMAX, but come on. Who needs to see it in either format? Does foaming at the mouth need to be so vivid?

[rolotomasi99]

I love epidemic movies. Similar to my love of zombie movies, I think it is fascinating to see what happens when society breaks down due to illness and paranoia. CONTAGION seems like one of those star-studded disaster movies of the 70s. It is this cast that is going to push the film to the top of the box-office. Epidemic films have not produced many blockbusters (OUTBREAK comes the closest). Much like zombie films, it is just a small but passionate group of us who loves these movies. However, with no real competition, the 3D surcharge, the sheer number of theatres it is being released in, and the aforementioned stars, CONTAGION will probably find itself on top with an opening gross close to $20 m. Unless word of mouth is great, no more than $60 m seems likely for the film's final gross.

I am not sure what to make of WARRIOR. If it were not for the cast and the surprisingly great reviews, I would say this is another schlocky sports flick. However, it looks like this film rises above its genre and is more of a character study than just a silly inspiring sports drama. The two stars are amazingly hot. If it were the story of their falling in love while competing against each other in mixed martial arts, I would totally pay to see that. With a story filled with military heroism, economic woes, family ties, and white people triumphing in the face of adversity, I think this film could be a surprise hit. If they threw in some Christian angle to it, they could really do well in fly-over country. The only thing holding it back is the two relative unknown leads, and the focus on a less mainstream sport. The small number of theatres it is in will also not help. Still, if good reviews can translate to good word of mouth, I think it is possible to see an opening north of $10 m and a total around $60 m.

Can anyone tell me what the fuck BUCKY LARSON is? I watched the trailer for this film with a mixture of profound confusion and utter disgust. This idea would barely support a Saturday Night Live sketch, let alone an entire movie. I thought for sure the Farrelly brothers were involved in this piece of crap, but it turns out Adam Sandler was one of the writers…which is actually worse! I hope this movie fails spectacularly. I predict an opening less than $5 m and a total around $10 m.

[rolotomasi99]

I think THE HELP has another good shot at number 1 at the box-office. The competition is not only pathetic, but two of the films are going to be competing for mostly the same audience.

THE DEBT opens early on Wednesday for some reason. I have heard such mixed things about this film. It seems to have strong moments, but then is undermined by a bad ending. Even if this film was getting rave reviews, though, I am not sure why it is being opened wide. Much like OUR IDIOT BROTHER, this film seems like it will be seen only by fans of independent films. Unlike a similar flick such as THE AMERICAN, this film is not going to be able to pull in the multiplex crowd off of the name of a big star. I doubt it will make more than $5 m on Wednesday and Thursday combined. Its Fri-Sun weekend will be under $10 m. Unless word-of-mouth is amazing, it is definitely ending with around $30 m at the most.

APOLLO 18 faces a similar genre problem as COWBOYS AND ALIENS. Sci-fi and horror do not often mix. Horror fans are interested in either thrillers with regular serial killers or fantasy element s such as ghosts or vampires. Sci-fi fans usually prefer more action and special effects heavy films. The only time you might see a mix is in zombie films, which often have a sci-fi source (experiment gone wrong, etc.). There are some exceptions to the sci-fi/horror rule such as SIGNS, ALIEN, THE FLY, and FRANKENSTEIN; but for the most part this genre has not produced many blockbusters. APOLLO 18 has an interesting premise and style (here the “found footage” trope actually makes sense), but I doubt it will be able to really satisfy sci-fi or horror fans. An opening around $10 m, and unless it has great word of mouth the total will be under $30 m.

Not only does APOLLO 18 have to overcome its genre problem, but it is going up against another horrorish film, SHARK NIGHT. It is not clear from the trailers whether the sharks in this film are genetically altered like in DEEP BLUE SEA, or just sharks in a lake. Either way, this film looks as silly as the recent PIRANHA 3, and it will probably be about as successful. It is also bad for both films that the market seems to be saturated with horror/thriller films, and more are on their way. It will probably have the same success as APOLLO 18, with a $10 m opening and $30 m total.