2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[rolotomasi99]

Wow. I guess folks hated VALENTINE’S DAY more than I thought, and clearly Jonah Hill is not a star. More often than not I am off with my predictions. For the most part, I over predict how much movies are going to make, particularly the opening. Only a handful of releases have greatly exceeded my predictions (THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3, GREEN LANTERN, THE LION KING et al). Mostly, though, I have been surprised at how folks have rejected the movies that you would think could get butts in seats with big stars and shit blowing up. Sequels in particular have been unreliable for the most part, particularly sequels to kid’s films. So you can imagine how difficult it is to figure out how well two big sequels will do this weekend.

When the first SHERLOCK HOLMES was released, many thought it would bomb. I figured it would have a $30 m opening and a total around $125 m. Even with fierce competition from AVATAR, the film had a huge $62 m opening and a $209 m total. With a 7.5 imdb rating, it seems people enjoyed it and are looking forward to a sequel. Then again, I said the same thing about KUNG FU PANDA and we know how that turned out. The first film also benefited from a perfect Christmas weekend (Christmas Day on Friday) while the sequel faces a crowded and bad Christmas weekend (Christmas Day on Sunday). It particularly faces tough competition from MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4, even on its opening weekend with the IMAX screenings which include THE DARK KNIGHT prologue. Still, if people are excited about a follow-up and the film does not disappoint, I think it could have similar business as the first film. A $60 m opening and $190 m total.

The ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS trilogy is a response to all those folks who thought Pixar had permanently raised the bar for children’s films. Of course there would still be bad kids films, just like there are for any genre, but we hoped young folks and (more so) their parents would demand movies made for little kids could be intelligent, beautiful, and even emotional. Well, the incredible success of these stupid screeching rodents has shown how justified we are in thinking children do not deserve good movies. What really surprises me is how many parents are willing to subject themselves to this dreck. The two previous films have done pretty steady business. This one faces stiff competition in just a few days after its first weekend from THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, but it will still do well. A $40 m opening and $200 m total.

[Dien]

I don't watch entertainment-centric TV shows like Entertainment Tonight and I don't read Entertainment Weekly so maybe I'm speaking out of ignorance, but for a very expensive franchise entry, isn't the new Mission: Impossible film getting next to no publicity and buzz. I wouldn't even be aware of it except that I saw an ad on a telephone booth in my neighborhood. Has Tom Cruise become completely toxic?

There's more publicity and buzz going into The Dark Knight Rises prologue that fronts its IMAX screenings. I have a feeling a good amount of the audience will disappear afterward.

[Big Magilla]

I can't stand those entertainment centric-shows either. I liked ET when it began in the early 80s when it was more informational and not just a glossy rag for the produciton companies. I remember an entire show in 1983 devoted to the passign of Pat O'Brien, teh actor, not teh sportscaster cum entertainment reporter who as far as I know is still alive. Today I doubt an actor whose glory days were four and five decades earlier would even get a passing mention. That said, I do catch these things in passing while flippign channels. Belive me, the Mission Impossible film is gettign peltny of airplay including lots of coverage of its world premiere in Dubai.

[Damien]

I don't watch entertainment-centric TV shows like Entertainment Tonight and I don't read Entertainment Weekly so maybe I'm speaking out of ignorance, but for a very expensive franchise entry, isn't the new Mission: Impossible film getting next to no publicity and buzz. I wouldn't even be aware of it except that I saw an ad on a telephone booth in my neighborhood. Has Tom Cruise become completely toxic?

[Sonic Youth]

Hollywood taking huge holiday hit at the box office

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500184_162- ... ox-office/

Excuse me if I'm not so impressed by all the doom and gloom.

Isn't this news just a lot of "not much"? This is a traditionally shitty weekend. It's where the studios chose to dump Mel Gibson's Apocolypse, for god's sake. I understand its the worst weekend in a few years, but does it mean that much when the weekend itself is so tepid in the first place? The fact is, the male demo hasn't been attended to recently but that will change over the next few weeks. Let's at least wait until after Christmas before we read Hollywood's last rites.

[Greg]

Hollywood taking huge holiday hit at the box office

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500184_162- ... ox-office/

[rolotomasi99]

NEW YEAR’S EVE is some sort of sequel to VALENTINE’S DAY. The latter film surprised everyone with its huge opening weekend, and then surprised no one with its huge second weekend drop and relatively low final gross. I doubt NEW YEAR’S EVE will be able to match the opening weekend for VALENTINE’S DAY. The first film had the buzz of being this huge event film due to the huge number of stars in one film. It also helped that Valentine’s Day itself is perfect for being the subject of a romantic comedy, and the film was released on February 12 allowing it to capitalize on anticipation of Valentine’s Day on Sunday without the actual holiday getting in the way of the film’s grosses on Friday and Saturday. NEW YEAR’S EVE does not have such luck. While the actual holiday can be romantic it is not universally seen that way, and the film is opening four weekends before the actual New Year’s Eve. Still, it might mean a smaller opening weekend, but a nice bump four weeks later. I anticipate a $40 m opening and $100 m total.

I guess indie writer-director David Gordon Green will never return to us. He has been replaced with the writer-director of foul mouthed comedies. Some (PINEAPPLE EXPRESS) are better than others (YOUR HIGHNESS), but none reflect the potential this guy showed in his obscure art house films. I expect at some point he is going to direct an action film of some sort since that seems to be the trend these days. THE SITTER looks like a very R-rated remake of THE ADVENTURES IN BABYSITTING. I think this is the first major release with Jonah Hill as a solo lead. He has some Oscar buzz for MONEYBALL and his own cartoon on T.V., but I do not think he is a big enough star for people to see a film just because he is in it. I think this will probably be in the same box-office range as 30 MINUTES OR LESS. A $15 m opening and $45 m total.

[rolotomasi99]

Here is someting interesting. According to Box Office Mojo, Thor is the top-grossing non sequal so far this year.

That is interesting. However, I am sure THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN will pass it. $200 m at least.

[Dien]

I really hope SHAME can do well enough in theatres to possibly become the highest grossing NC-17 film. Right now that honor is held by SHOWGIRLS at $20 m followed by HENRY AND JUNE at $11 m. If the film is as good as the reviews say and Fassbender receives some award attention, I think passing $11 m is very possible. To pass $20 m might take Fassbender winning the Oscar, which is not out of the question. I think the NC-17 rating is pretty ridiculous, especially since it is unfairly applied to sexual content over violent content, but an Oscar win and great box-office for SHAME might encourage studios to be more bold in releasing NC-17 film rather than cutting them down to please the puritans at the MPAA.

That won't happen as long as certain theatre chains refuse to book NC-17 films.

If this was the 70s and it was rated X instead, this wouldn't be a problem. A Clockwork Orange, Fritz the Cat, and Heavy Traffic did relatively well despite their rating (or lack of).

[Sabin]

Hugo and Arthur Christmas dropped less than 40% this weekend. What this tells me is that audiences fully intend on watching these films, but, with three films attempting to capture an almost identical audience, families have no choice but to wait a week. The Muppets had a stronger start than Arthur Christmas and Hugo, but audiences will seek them out.

[Big Magilla]

I really hope SHAME can do well enough in theatres to possibly become the highest grossing NC-17 film. Right now that honor is held by SHOWGIRLS at $20 m followed by HENRY AND JUNE at $11 m. If the film is as good as the reviews say and Fassbender receives some award attention, I think passing $11 m is very possible. To pass $20 m might take Fassbender winning the Oscar, which is not out of the question. I think the NC-17 rating is pretty ridiculous, especially since it is unfairly applied to sexual content over violent content, but an Oscar win and great box-office for SHAME might encourage studios to be more bold in releasing NC-17 film rather than cutting them down to please the puritans at the MPAA.

That won't happen as long as certain theatre chains refuse to book NC-17 films.

[Greg]

Here is someting interesting. According to Box Office Mojo, Thor is the top-grossing non sequal so far this year.

[rolotomasi99]

I know the first weekend of December is usually slow, but I do not understand why not a single film is being opening in more than a 1,000 theatres. I have never seen that happen before. It will certainly benefit all the movies currently in theatres to have no new competition. Given how well it has done last weekend and the subsequent week, THE MUPPETS has a very good chance of finding itself at the top of the box-office. Of course, that depends on BREAKING DAWN dropping as sharply as it did last weekend, which is very likely. I am hoping the awards attention and good word of mouth will help propel HUGO up several spots, possibly number 2 or 3. ARTHUR CHRISTMAS will probably do well over the long Holiday season, like YOGI BEAR did last year. HAPPY FEET 2 looks like it will barely make it to $100 m.

I do not usually comment on films being released in less than 1,000 theatres, but I really hope SHAME can do well enough in theatres to possibly become the highest grossing NC-17 film. Right now that honor is held by SHOWGIRLS at $20 m followed by HENRY AND JUNE at $11 m. If the film is as good as the reviews say and Fassbender receives some award attention, I think passing $11 m is very possible. To pass $20 m might take Fassbender winning the Oscar, which is not out of the question. I think the NC-17 rating is pretty ridiculous, especially since it is unfairly applied to sexual content over violent content, but an Oscar win and great box-office for SHAME might encourage studios to be more bold in releasing NC-17 film rather than cutting them down to please the puritans at the MPAA.

[Dien]

I am not sure if the world was really demanding another movie about the Muppets, but Jason Segal made one anyways. It will be interesting to see how this film does. It is clearly a children's film, but I get the feeling it is mostly going to appeal to parents feeling nostalgic for their childhood. I doubt there are many kids out there that would prefer to see THE MUPPETS over HAPPY FEET 2 or ARTHUR CHRISTMAS. I sure hope this movie did not cost too much, because I will be really surprised if it is a hit. Maybe around $5 m each on Wednesday and Thursday, and then a $20 m opening and a $65 m total.

I've been wanting a Muppet movie for years. I've watched the show since I was a child and I've enjoyed it into adulthood because there are still enough innuendo, sarcasm, and genuinely creative musical numbers to balance out the silly nature of the program. Jim Henson originally made it to appeal to older children and adults, the demographic that wasn't watching Sesame Street. It was basically SNL with puppets, which is fitting since SNL used to have Muppets in the first season or so. Obviously they were watered down when Disney bought the company, but I think Segal has his heart in the right place. The trailers I've seen look like old-school Muppets with their wit intact. Puppetry is a lost art form that needs this kind of boost.

Menomena - doo doooo doodoodoo

[rolotomasi99]

Well, clearly I was expecting more from both of last weekend’s wide-releases.  Obviously, $138 m is nothing to sneer at, but the penultimate boy wizard film had the highest opening weekend of the series while this film is clearly slipping from previous entries.  A $21 m opening weekend is definitely something to sneer at.  Maybe the grosses were low because too many mothers were busy going to the sparkly vampire movie to bother taking their kids to the dancing penguin flick.  However, unlike the talking cat film, this one is going to have a tough time making-up for the low opening since three new releases compete for the family audience this Thanksgiving weekend.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS seems the most likely to be on top of the three new releases (even with a huge second weekend drop, last week’s winner will still be number one at the box-office).  It looks like a fun little film that kids will want to see and parents will not mind sitting through (some even multiple times).  Aardman Entertainment is not as strong as Pixar, but usually releases high quality films.  Assuming word-of-mouth is strong, the film will be able to make its mark as the only Christmas centric family film being released this year.  It will probably have an opening around $10 m on Wednesday and again on Thursday, and then a $25 m opening with a $120 m total.

I grew up watching Sesame Street, but I was never a big fan of the Muppets. I am not sure if the world was really demanding another movie about the Muppets, but Jason Segal made one anyways. It will be interesting to see how this film does. It is clearly a children's film, but I get the feeling it is mostly going to appeal to parents feeling nostalgic for their childhood. I doubt there are many kids out there that would prefer to see THE MUPPETS over HAPPY FEET 2 or ARTHUR CHRISTMAS. I sure hope this movie did not cost too much, because I will be really surprised if it is a hit. Maybe around $5 m each on Wednesday and Thursday, and then a $20 m opening and a $65 m total.

HUGO is the film I am most looking forward to this Holiday season. I am a huge Scorsese fan, and I cannot wait to see his take on a children's film. From the rave reviews to interviews with Scorsese, it sounds like the film is really a love letter to cinema itself disguised as the usual children's film. I am really surprised the studio is releasing it in so few theaters. They must have absolutely no confidence in it. I think the film will do well since it already has a fanbase from the book, plus I think older folks even without kids will want to check it out. Hopefully the rave reviews will be met with strong word of mouth. Definitely less than $5 m on Wednesday and then Thursday, and maybe $15 m over the weekend with a $100 m total.