Final Going-In Thoughts

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Postby Sabin » Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:48 pm

Owen Gleiberman wrote a fantastic piece on why he thinks David Fincher is the best working filmmaker.

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2011....0311937

It's a great read and he pinpoints why I'm hoping against hope that The Social Network takes it. Now, I don't think it will, but I'm pretty sure we're in for the single most exciting night since '01. There are evenings full of surprises that you don't expect. Who thought '03 would bring forth Brody/Harwood/Polanski? Or that '06 would give us Crash? And then there are evenings where you know it's going to be a horse race like in '07? But these are largely one or two categories in question, and they're big ones. There are literally ten categories where I am not sure, and behind it all is a great, fascinating King's Speech vs. Social Network horse race that may very well be a corker until the end.

...which is all the more sad because neither one is that great. I'm very much in the pro-Social Network camp, but here's my wish:

I want The Social Network to pick up just enough wins so that A) we are not given a King's Speech sweep, and B) I honestly don't know for a while what's going to happen. I want The Social Network to win for Best Original Score and Best Sound Mixing. Just so I'm nice and teased for a while before Tom Hooper wins it.

So, that's my wish. Next to having the GODDAMN CLIPS BACK, I am hoping against hope for a very exciting evening.

(I am also hoping for:

Hailee Steinfeld...

Exit Through the Gift Shop...

...and Dogtooth.)
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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:38 pm

Get well soon, Filmfan. At least you still have us for company.
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Postby FilmFan720 » Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:09 pm

I have strep throat, so will be watching tonight's show in an empty house, full of antibiotics and laying on the couch...I hope you all have a better Oscar night than me:)
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Postby flipp525 » Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:19 pm

Mister Tee wrote:If there is a major deviation from the template, though, I hope it's not Steinfeld over Leo -- partly because of the category fraud Steinfeld is practicing (or having practiced for her), but more because it'll only lead to endless blogger prattle about how Leo had the award cold and blew it with those stupid ads. It won't be a surprise; it'll just be more confirmation in the blogger universe that they make the earth turn. How about a surprise that's actually -- you know -- unexpected? And that has nothing to do with what someone wrote three days ago?

I'd love for the big surprise in that category to be Jacki Weaver. I just watched Animal Kingdom last night and I thought Weaver's surprisingly chilling performance as Janine "Smurf" Cody was just delectable. The film has some pacing issues, but I found it well photographed with a great ensemble. And Weaver's performance is just the sort of unexpected treat you want to be recognized by the Academy.

And talk about a shocker. She hasn't been on anyone's radar.
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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Feb 27, 2011 7:22 am

I don't have any real final thoughts, other than: Happy Oscar night to everybody! No matter what happens tonight, I hope we all enjoy ourselves.

Have fun, everyone.
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Postby MovieWes » Sun Feb 27, 2011 1:04 am

Also, not that this has anything to do with tomorrow night's outcome, but if The Social Network and David Fincher do end up losing, I'm thinking that it might actually help Fincher's Oscar chances for his remake of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo next year. And before you say, "Oh, they'll never give it THAT movie!" think about this. Highly respected director that's generally perceived to be overdue who is going back to his roots as a filmmaker with a remake of a popular foreign language film after a brief stint at doing "prestige pictures" and coming off two consecutive Best Picture and Best Director losses for his last two films, one which earned him a Golden Globe for Best Director? Sounds an awful lot like a Best Picture/Director winner from the past decade doesn't it?



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Postby MovieWes » Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:44 am

I'm still "officially" predicting The King's Speech to win Best Picture, but I've got this nagging feeling that The Social Network might still pull it out in the end. I don't know why... it's just a feeling. I've never really been completely 100% sure about the outcome of the Best Picture race, even when The King's Speech was winning all the guild awards. It just kind of feels like its not as strong as it was a few weeks ago after it took the PGA, DGA and SAG awards. In the past few weeks, The Social Network has won a couple of guilds (WGA and ACE), the BAFTA for Best Director (an award I thought would go to Tom Hooper for sure), and even the Best Picture/Director prize from the London Film Critics Association (not that this has any real bearing on the Oscar race... it just kind of adds to the overall critics haul, and it's from the London critics, which is an award that logically should have been a slam-dunk for The King's Speech).

And let us not forget The Social Network's overall dominance of the critics awards, where it stands as the most critically honored film in history... yes, it is even more honored than Schindler's List and Brokeback Mountain, and if it lost, it would be the first film ever to lose the Oscar while winning Best Picture AND Best Director from New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, Broadcast, National Society, and the Golden Globes. There is also one other film to win Best Picture after having only won the WGA and ACE: Braveheart. It should also be noted that Apollo 13 won the DGA, PGA, and SAG Ensemble as well (just like The King's Speech) so if TKS were to lose, it wouldn't exactly be without historical precedent.

Of course, these statistics don't really mean anything. There are some differences between the two races. For instance, Braveheart was the most nominated film in 1995, Apollo 13 was seriously weakened after missing out on a Best Director nomination for Ron Howard, and neither of the two films were exactly "critical darlings" at the end of the year. It's just that when you look at the final weeks leading up to the Oscars, these two races are eerily similar and I'm pretty sure that The Social Network is in a much better position than Braveheart was, even with the lead in nominations and Ron Howard out of the picture. If The King's Speech were to lose Art Direction, Costume Design, and Best Original Score (I'd say that Costume Design is the only sure thing out of these three categories) -- and if The Social Network wins Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Original Score (not to mention the possibility of it perhaps even winning Cinematography or Sound Mixing) -- going into the final category, Mr. Weinstein should be very, very afraid because there will be a huge probability that an upset is in order.




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"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby Mister Tee » Sat Feb 26, 2011 11:03 pm

This is almost surely my last moment to sit down and comment, so a few thoughts going in to big show:

I'd love to be with all of those predicting the King's/Fincher split -- and I'd happily lose every pool going by being wrong here -- but I just can't see the overwhelming reason to drop-kick the Directors' Guild after its many years of success. However, as Magilla says in another thread, there's no sense treating any of this as fait accompli. Despite the grinding predictability of recent years, there's always the chance this is the year voters get a wild hair and surprise us. Sure hoping.

If there is a major deviation from the template, though, I hope it's not Steinfeld over Leo -- partly because of the category fraud Steinfeld is practicing (or having practiced for her), but more because it'll only lead to endless blogger prattle about how Leo had the award cold and blew it with those stupid ads. It won't be a surprise; it'll just be more confirmation in the blogger universe that they make the earth turn. How about a surprise that's actually -- you know -- unexpected? And that has nothing to do with what someone wrote three days ago?

Hope everybody finds something to make them happy topmorrow evening -- unless, of course, you're rooting against my favorites. Talk to you all on the other side.


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