Categories One-by-One: Best Picture
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I think The King's Speech is only going to win if it gets the requisite 50% plus one first place votes. Otherwise I think The Social Network, whether it has enough to win on first place votes or not, is going to take it because I think it will place second or third on more ballots than The King's Speech, which you either love or don't. While not a lot of people love The Social Network, most respect its artistry. I just don't know where the balance is between the two, and neither does anyone else.
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Precedent would be against either Toy Story 3 or True Grit winning. The Fighter and Black Swan are the only two films that would be eligible to win (they are both Best Editing nominees), though Black Swan doesn't have a writing nomination, so it's chances are also heavily diminished. But considering how little talk The Fighter has received and how much it feels that the film has lost steam, I can't really see it being the default choice.
The problem is, it doesn't matter where Social Network or King's Speech are ranked on those voters' ballots. It matters only who didn't vote for Social Network or King's Speech and where they placed their second-level votes. After all, if all the Winter's Bone, Kids Are All Right, Inception and 127 Hours voters had King's Speech second and Social Network third, King's Speech would still come out on top. Social Network and King's Speech fans will have absolutely no influence in picking the winner. They don't give it to the one with the highest average.
The problem is, it doesn't matter where Social Network or King's Speech are ranked on those voters' ballots. It matters only who didn't vote for Social Network or King's Speech and where they placed their second-level votes. After all, if all the Winter's Bone, Kids Are All Right, Inception and 127 Hours voters had King's Speech second and Social Network third, King's Speech would still come out on top. Social Network and King's Speech fans will have absolutely no influence in picking the winner. They don't give it to the one with the highest average.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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I think this is a genuinely competitive race this year. I don't think The King's Speech is that big of a lock to win. I'm still predicting it. It has the best chance but I feel like this category isn't quite sewn up until the envelope is opened unless of course The King's Speech wins Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and at least one of the Supporting acting awards, then we'll know the Academy truly does has a hard-on for film and automatically voted for it EVERYWHERE.
I also have a feeling that if enough King's Speech fans and Social Network fans from within the Academy vote strategically with the special voting system in the Best Picture category, (that is place the one of the two films on the bottom and their preference to win Best Picture as #1), there is also a possibility that a third film breaks through. A film that is widely seen and widely liked with only a few detractors which most Academy members would probably list in the upper-half of their ballots. The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit fit this bill and I think there is a very real possibility one of them could be the shocker win.
I also have a feeling that if enough King's Speech fans and Social Network fans from within the Academy vote strategically with the special voting system in the Best Picture category, (that is place the one of the two films on the bottom and their preference to win Best Picture as #1), there is also a possibility that a third film breaks through. A film that is widely seen and widely liked with only a few detractors which most Academy members would probably list in the upper-half of their ballots. The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit fit this bill and I think there is a very real possibility one of them could be the shocker win.
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