Big Magilla wrote:I've given up trying to figure out the bizarre tabulating process, but I can't imagine Toy Story 3 winning. There's already been a lot of groaning about Disney's overly aggressive "if not know, when?" campaign.
Well, Quentin Tarantino chose it as his number one film of the year.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
You would have to go all the way back to Cavalcade to find an Oscar winning film that resembles The King's Speech with all those stiff upper lips. It's Clive Brook and Diana Wynyard without the comic relief of Herbert Mundin and Una O'Connor.
The R rating is a joke. It should be rated PG for those two scenes in which Colin Firth says "shit" and "fuck". Honestly, what six year-old schoolchild hasn't heard worse on the playground?
And most importantly, not only The King's Speech wasn't picked as the best of the year by the NBR - which seemed to be the group this movie was made for - but our own, glorious Big Magilla finds it OLD FASHIONED. I repeat: Big Magilla. The only other time he called something "old fashioned" on this board it was about Mary Pickford's performance in Coquette - I think this says alot about its Oscar chances.
Big Magilla might be right about something else, too - if The Socal Network triumphs, as it probably will, it will be at least partly because of the lack of solid alternatives. There have been far better movies this year, and some, like Polanski's The Ghost Writer, are even in the English language, but they unfortunately aren't of the kind the Academy likes to honor.
Why all this talk about True Grit, Toy Story 3 or The King's Speech winning best picture? It appears that The Social Network has the momentum going for it and it will end up winning.
I've given up trying to figure out the bizarre tabulating process, but I can't imagine Toy Story 3 winning. There's already been a lot of groaning about Disney's overly aggressive "if not know, when?" campaign.
It's not going to be the number two picks of those who vote for either The Social Network or The King's Speech. I can see The Social Network crowd picking any number of films as their second choice and the King's Speech crowd lining up heavily behind True Grit, so I would say if neither of two alleged front-runners wins, then the Coen Bros. remake nabs it.
Have you seen The King's Speech? It may sound like something that has broad appeal on paper, but its measured gentility would have seemed old-fashioned even if it had been made in 1939 or 1940. That kind of thing really only plays nowadays on PBS, and when was the last time a PBS production won a major award? Emmys and Golden Globes all go to the edgier stuff on HBO and Showtime.
I would really be surprised if it wins. Not shocked and numbed like I was when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain, but surprised and probably bemused. I just hope Franco and Hathaway and company put on a good show, because the awards themselves this year are apt to be deadly dull and very boring.
Big Magilla wrote:The King's Speech appeals to the PBS crowd, but are there enough of them to pull off a win? I doubt it.
In the Academy? Really? It has the uplifting over-coming-a-disability emotion of A BEAUTIFUL MIND, and the British snob appeal and oppulence of SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE. I think it has what it takes to go all the way.
I am still very, very unhappy with the 10 slots for Best Picture, but it looks like we are going to avoid any THE BLINDSIDE type embarrassments this year. Since 10 nominees is here to stay, I keep waiting for some type of out-of-nowhere winner to emerge due to vote splitting. If THE KING'S SPEECH and THE SOCIAL NETWORK is the two films to receive the most number ones, the system allows for something that everyone picks as their number two to be the winner. Something like TOY STORY 3 could easily do this.
I am still a little fuzzy on the complex system they have for tallying the votes, but I remember last year people saying it was possible for the eventual winner to not have the majority of number one votes. All that is needed is to have the third most number one votes, plus a majority of the number two votes. I am not sure if this year something like that will happen, but it seems like under this system it could eventually.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
It wasn't that long ago that the Sunday between Christmas and New Year's was the day critics released their top ten lists. It was also the week that year-end awards started to come in, first from the National Board of Review, then the Los Angeles or New York Film Critics, followed by the Golden Globe nomination and the National Society of Film Critics awards. Except for the latter, it has all come to pass, along with with awards announcements from every group imaginable around the country, so where does that leave the Oscar race?
It's still in a state of flux, but somewhat clearer now that the films which travelers to Sundance, Cannes and Toronto and Venice saw months ago, have been released to the public.
The Films
Now I finally understand why The Social Network has had such a pull on awards groups. It's not that they all think it's the most revelatory American film since Citizen Kane. It's not that they're all enamored of the subject matter. It's simply that everything else this year has fallen below expectations.
127 Hours might have had more of a chance if Danny Boyle hadn't won everything in sight two years ago, or if more people had seen it.
The Fighter is engrossing, but it's the performances that carry it. Ditto The Kids Are All right. Oscar is looking for more.
True Grit is good, but not really better than the original, which was not a Best Picture nominee.
The King's Speech appeals to the PBS crowd, but are there enough of them to pull off a win? I doubt it.
Toy Story 3 might pull off a nomination, but if Beauty and the Beast couldn't win when there was no animated feature category, this won't either.
Black Swan, Inception and Winter's Bone all have their fans, but just as many dislike them.
Rabbit Hole has opened, but audiences don't seem to care. Blue Valentine and Another Year haven't even opened yet. Are they opening too late to make an impact?
The Actors
Colin Firth, James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg are pretty much locks. with Ryan Gosling, Mark Wahlberg and Jeff Bridges fighting it out over the two remaining slots. Firth doesn't quite have it in the bag, but he should have an acceptance speech ready.
The Actresses
Annette Bening seems to be having a resurgence. Natalie Portman's performance seems to be too polarizing, plus she has a dumb rom-com opening in January, which could hurt chances a la Eddie Murphy a few years back. That's the race. It's between those two. Unless Lesley Manville starts getting some love, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams are the likely other nominees.
The Supporting Actors
Christian Bale, Christian Bale and Christian Bale. The also-rans will likely include Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush and probably Andrew Garfield and Sam rockwell, Jeremy Renner or John Hawkes.
The Supporting Actresses
This category is the one that has always had the most surprises. Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver may be winning all the critics' prizes, but didn't a nasty, controlling mom win last year? The Academy likes to mix it up, which is why I think both are going to have a harder time with Oscar, where Amy Adams or a last minute surprise nominee could take the prize. Vanessa Redgrave, anyone?
