SAG Nominations

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Post by anonymous1980 »

Some quick assessment on where the Oscar race is at this point per acting category:

ACTOR: I think we're looking at Oscar's final five here. Ryan Gosling (or if they really love The Fighter, Mark Wahlberg) still has a legit shot at usurping either Duvall or Bridges but for now, I doubt it.

ACTRESS: When I saw Hilary Swank's name, I thought: "ROUND THREE?!?" Last spot is still up for grabs. Manville still has BAFTA to go. If she can get in there, she still has a shot, otherwise, she's dead. Michelle Williams also has a shot. Julianne Moore's a longshot now.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: John Hawkes' chances are boosted with this. But only time will tell if this is a SAG WTF oddity or an indication of things to come. I thinK Garfield's still in unless BAFTA snubs him. Only Bale and Rush seem safe.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I think The Fighter ladies and Helena Bonham-Carter are safe for nods. Jacki Weaver, I believe, is still getting in despite the snub here. I have a feeling Kunis is a Cameron Diaz case.
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Post by flipp525 »

OscarGuy wrote:One impactful scene does not sympathy make. She may have been good in that one scene and developed a measure of sympathy, but the overall arc of her character very much feels unsympathetic to me. But that's my impression of her.

Before you said that there was "nothing at all sympathetic" about her character. Now you concede to the fact that she does, in fact, garner sympathy in that dinner scene, but her overall arc is unsympathetic. Your impression seems to change from post to post.




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Post by OscarGuy »

One impactful scene does not sympathy make. She may have been good in that one scene and developed a measure of sympathy, but the overall arc of her character very much feels unsympathetic to me. But that's my impression of her.

I think Wiest and Hershey are dead. Their names are perfect for Screen Actors Guild as they are well known. SAG has always been fond of big name actors. Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg and Anne Hathaway (who had started appearing in year-end nominations) are also pretty much fading. Jacki Weaver could still earn an Oscar nomination, but this would have cemented it.

As for John Hawkes, I think it has more to do with people wanting to see the film for Jennifer Lawrence and then liking Hawkes and his performance and penciling him in.

For awhile, I had thought Amy Adams was fading, but here she is gaining a nod that could easily carry over to the Oscars.
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Post by flipp525 »

Mister Tee wrote:And one thing I forgot: Did anyone else see the nominations live on TNT? And, if you did, would you like to strangle Angie Harmon? Actors are sitting out there waiting anxiously to see if their careers are going to affected, and she makes the whole thing "me-me-me".

Republican slut. Why is she even famous?
Sabin wrote:Robert Duvall has a climactic, damn near ten minute monologue all in close up. He does more in his eight minutes in The Road than the entirety of Get Low, but he's probably in. Just a shame. The film is a snore.

Robert Duvall was in The Road? I just watched it last night and must have missed him. Was he the old man spitting up the creamed corn?




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Post by ITALIANO »

Sabin wrote:Get ready for a nap.
I thought so...
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Post by Sabin »

(Italiano @ Dec. 16 2010,12:03)
It seems I will have to see Get Low - which I was hoping I could avoid - just in case (though I realize that at the Oscars either Duvall or Jeff Bridges could be replaced by someone else).

Get ready for a nap.

Robert Duvall has a climactic, damn near ten minute monologue all in close up. He does more in his eight minutes in The Road than the entirety of Get Low, but he's probably in. Just a shame. The film is a snore.
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Post by Mister Tee »

And one thing I forgot: Did anyone else see the nominations live on TNT? And, if you did, would you like to strangle Angie Harmon? Actors are sitting out there waiting anxiously to see if their careers are going to affected, and she makes the whole thing "me-me-me".
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Post by ITALIANO »

It seems I will have to see Get Low - which I was hoping I could avoid - just in case (though I realize that at the Oscars either Duvall or Jeff Bridges could be replaced by someone else).

Another one I so hope I won't have to see is Conviction. I know that another Bening-Swank duel is good for the press and the publicity, but I still trust the Academy a little bit and I believe it won't happen, especially with so many good alternatives (though Manville seems more and more in danger, and maybe not only because of confusion over her placement - but then she isn't a SAG-type actress anyway).

Christian Bale is at the moment the only one I'd bet my money on for an Oscar win. They saw him growing up, movie by movie, and it seems that he has the most interesting characher in The Fighter - plus, it will be a way to honor a movie which many seem to like and which could fail in other categories. But I'm glad for John Hawkes - very good actor - and I hope he will be confirmed on Oscar nominations morning. One who, I feel, will certainly stay is Jeremy Renner - he has the kind of role that the Academy loves, though I expected more from him and his performance.

Jacki Weaver will probably make it in January - I didn't expect her to be nominated here anyway. But these five look strong - including Mila Kunis, who was much praised by Italian critics when Black Swan premiered in Venice and won the Marcello Mastroianni award there. And from some photos I have seen she looks extremely beautiful - which as we know when it comes to Best Supporting Actress can play a role.
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Post by Eric »

Mister Tee wrote:I also wouldn't worry much about Jacki Weaver, who's unlikely to have been widely seen. A few years back, she might have scored based on her critical support -- but here and now, SAG ballots were in the mail before those critics' prizes were ever announced, so she had no hope of benefitting from the attention. Oscar voters will be more alert.
Might she also not be an SAG member?
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Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:I would also add that Barbara Hershey and Dianne Wiest now have about as much of a chance at an Oscar nod this year as Vanessa Redgrave - practically none.
They both definitely should have been in my last paragraph along with Rockwell et al. Deeply hurt by the week's events.

Greg, I see things almost at a 180 from you: I think Colin Firth is by far the most solid/bordering on locked favorite in any category. I think lead actress is even between Bening and Portman, and likely to stay that way at least till SAG's awards. Bale's failure to sweep the critics leaves him strong but far from out of the woods. And, if there is a favorite for supporting actress, I'd say it's Leo rather than Steinfeld.
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Post by Sabin »

Great news for John Hawkes and Hailee Steinfeld.
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Post by Greg »

There does not seem to be a heavyweight favorite in any Oscar acting category; but, three of them do appear to have middleweight favorites. That would be Annette Benning, Christian Bale, and Hailee Steinfeld in Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. Lead Actor looks like it is starting to become a race between Colin Firth and Jesse Eisenberg.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Agree with Tee's observations.

I would also add that Barbara Hershey and Dianne Wiest now have about as much of a chance at an Oscar nod this year as Vanessa Redgrave - practically none.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

I am very happy about all the love for THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT and BLACK SWAN, as well as Jeremy Renner's nom.

I have not seen BLUE VALENTINE but I love Gosling and Williams, and wanted them to be included. Likewise with Manville and Weaver for performances I have heard such great things about.

I am sad Andrew Garfield was not singled out, but I am not sure who I would have him replace in the supporting category. All very good performances.

Very disappointed DiCaprio was not recognized for SHUTTER ISLAND. I have to finally accept his chances are pretty much dead, as well as the film itself.

THE FIGHTER clearly has its fans in Hollywood, but I sure hope Wahlberg is not swept up in that love and given another Oscar nom. The first one was painful enough.

The Hilary Swank nom is the biggest shock. I could easily see Manville replacing her.

I also think Kunis is vulnerable. I thought she was perfect in the part, but Hershey, Weist, or Weaver (along with a few others) deserve a nomination before her.

Other than that, I think we have our Oscar nominees.
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Post by Mister Tee »

SAG has had a couple of 19-of-20 matchups in recent years. This doesn't seem like one of those. Swank is as good as gone, and you have to feel that one or two of Gosling, Garfield or Weaver will be scoring at AMPAS.

I understand the temptation to rev up another round of The Rivalry That Only Exists in the Minds of Certain Oscar Bloggers, but I don't think any good comes of giving Tom O'Neil more air-time. He already thinks he make the Oscar world spin; I hate to see fuel added to that.

Besides, I'm in agreement with Eric on both points: it's way too good a year for actresses to toss a slot away on the equivalent of Theron/North Country or Blanchett/ Elizabeth: The Golden Age; and nominating Swank while passing over the film's nomination-worthy performer Rockwell seems almost calculatedly insulting.

Black Swan's run through the early rounds continues impressive. It's possible it turns out an Into the Wild in the end (though Into the Wild never had close to the commercial luck Swan has already had). Or, maybe, Black Swan resembles American Beauty. The latter, when it opened, was considered dark and challenging by alot of critics -- comparisons were made to art house efforts like Happiness and The Ice Storm. But when the film became an instant, prolonged smash, suddenly people were invoking Ordinary People. If Swan continues on its hit trajectory, in retrospect it may be viewed as a Fatal Attraction-ish obvious hit, not the divisive/weird project it was initially labeled.

It's obviously not great news for the Blue Valentine pair to have been omitted, but the fact that both are missing suggests inadequate screening might be to blame. Having scored at both Broadcast and the Globes, the film has enough in the bank to continue to hold hope.

I also wouldn't worry much about Jacki Weaver, who's unlikely to have been widely seen. A few years back, she might have scored based on her critical support -- but here and now, SAG ballots were in the mail before those critics' prizes were ever announced, so she had no hope of benefitting from the attention. Oscar voters will be more alert.

Garfield's absence is the first tiny chink in Social Network's seasonal armor, but I still rate him high for nomination.

Renner, huh? I still view this as standard-issue live-wire/screwup acting, and see his singling out as carryover affection from last year. I know I can't be alone in this feeling: I recall Okri promoting him for a nomination, then retracting it as soon as he saw the picture.

Kunis has now swept the three rounds of TV awards. Yet I remain doubtful. She feels like Cameron Diaz/ Vanilla Sky -- another babe-a-licious choice who scored at all those groups but was flicked away by the Oscars.

A key score for Ruffalo, whose week otherwise would have been bad news apart from NY, and John Hawkes -- who may have benefitted from DVD viewing.

The people truly hurt are the ones who got none of the TV three: Rockwell as mentioned, the apparently invisible Manville, and the once-bandied-about Matt Damon. Also, True Grit's no-show under Ensemble suggests the film's only a midpack contender for best picture.




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