In terms of aggregate relatively populist critic-think, the two most acclaimed leading male performances this year seem to be Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco. I will be astonished if Colin Firth wins a major critic's award for The King's Speech. If there is a spoiler, it's probably Ryan Gosling but it seems like he's getting overshadowed by Michelle Williams. I think LA will go for Franco and NY will pick Eisenberg as part of a wider Social Network sweep.
I think both groups will cite Jennifer Lawrence. She's likely to remain present throughout the balloting and pick up votes if/when Annette Bening, Natalie Portman, or any other candidate goes missing off. She's a strong compromise candidate.
I'd be very interested to see if Lesley Manville gets the bump down to Best Supporting Actress. If LA starts it, NY will finish it. If not, Jackie Weaver may continue a sweep of the critic's circuit for Best Supporting Actress. I just don't see The King's Speech or Rabbit Hole as films that will light up the critic's circuit. Or The Fighter, unless of course Christian Bale continues onward. Has Best Supporting Actor been this weak in ages? Andrew Garfield will probably be a part of a NY sweep. I'm really hoping that John Hawkes makes some kind of showing.
Thinking LA & NY - (And Eventually Predicting)
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Precious Doll
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I only hope that the L.A. and New York (and the NSFC) film critics haven't forgotten all those wonderful performances from non-English production. After all last year Yolande Moreau deservedly won the L.A. & NSFC prizes so there is hope for the likes of Isabelle Huppert, Hye-ja Kim and others.
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The Original BJ
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Next week is going to be CRAZY.
LA on Sunday.
NY on Monday.
Broadcast Film Critics' list of Oscar predictions on Monday.
Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday.
SAG nominations on Thursday.
Be prepared for the blogosphere to declare the award hopes of certain films and performances completely dead...only to have them resuscitated within a day or two!
LA on Sunday.
NY on Monday.
Broadcast Film Critics' list of Oscar predictions on Monday.
Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday.
SAG nominations on Thursday.
Be prepared for the blogosphere to declare the award hopes of certain films and performances completely dead...only to have them resuscitated within a day or two!
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I'm still not sold on Black Swan being a major player at the Oscars, but with the word surrounding the film, I think that a win here could push it into the Top 10 for sure. It seems like it may be becoming the critics darling of December, and if one of these groups anoint it, then it becomes a formidable nomination contender.
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I've never exactly been a fan of Mike Leigh and I haven't seen Another Year, but I recall seeing several things in which Lesley Manville has had small parts and checking the cast credits to see who this interesting actress was.
Nothing comes particularly to mind, but there is something distinctly interesting about her. The only thing I could find about her on IMDb. is a notation that she has a 22 year-old son by Gary Oldman, which in itself I find fascinating for some strange reason.
I hope she wins a few awards this year to boost her profile so we can see more of her.
Nothing comes particularly to mind, but there is something distinctly interesting about her. The only thing I could find about her on IMDb. is a notation that she has a 22 year-old son by Gary Oldman, which in itself I find fascinating for some strange reason.
I hope she wins a few awards this year to boost her profile so we can see more of her.
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It really annoys me the LA and NY critics make their picks so close together -- about 16 hours apart. I'd like the time to digest the first and make counter-predictions for the second, but, unless I have free hours Sunday night, that's unlikely to happen. So, might as well think about both now. I expect to eventually use this thread to post predictions, but, for now, an overview, largely on what effect I think or expect the two groups' choices will have.
The main best picture question is, will either/both live up to what their reviews have suggested -- a Social Network romp -- or have they prematurely tired of their own consensus, and might this prompt someone to take a flier on something else? (I'd almost bet the National Society will; they'd hate to see a Hurt Locker repeat) And, if not Social Network, what? It doesn't necessarily have to be a film with overwhelmingly strong reviews; it just has to be what a group coalesces around (Affliction somehow finished second in NY in '98,, despite being out-reviewed by any number of films). Judging by the ten best lists dribbling out in NY, it seems Winter's Bone has stuck in many people's minds, and I think that's the best bet for an East Coast upset. LA could surprise in different ways -- they're more likely to fall for King's Speech (which I'd say has no shot in NY), or, having placed Wall E/Dark Knight 1-2 in '08, could swing for Toy Story 3 or Inception. I'd still say the odds favor a Social Network win both places (with Fincher and Sorkin even more highly rated). And none of this -- short of an outright Winter's Bone win in NY -- will have any impact on the season ahead.
The acting awards, though, could. Tom O'Neil's group heavily expects Colin Firth to win in both places. I can barely express how fiercely I doubt that. I think Firth will be a stone-lock in the Broadcast/Globe/SAG portion of the race, but in these early races I'd expect to see more of Ryan Gosling, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco. Of the two groups, LA is certainly more likely to go Firth: there's a Hollywood-ish chunk in their membership -- the ones who voted Helen Hunt and Gloria Stuart second place in 1997. But second place is mostly the best they can achieve; the prize is more likely to go to someone like James Franco. And in NY, I wouldn't even be sure Firth would make the top three (he didn't last year, for a far more critics'-bait performance). My strong sense is that the NYers will want to push their 2006 runner-up Ryan Gosling into the winner's circle, but, if not him, Eisenberg and Franco seem more likely than Firth. And Gosling -- a solid but not assured candidate for nomination -- could use the high-profile boost to get himself more firmly in the conversation. (Eisenberg, as well)
You know what I hope about the best actress category? I hope, for once, the critics can stifle their propensity to swoon unanimously for Mike Leigh's ladies. You have to consider the possibility: Sally Hawkins and Imelda Staunton swept the three majors (the latter albeit in a tie at National); Blethyn won LA in '96. And of course Leigh himself has had at least one film win at each group. To go just by these voters, Mike Leigh is the unparalleled auteur of the era. (Damien is mortified at the thought) But I hope they can restrain themselves this year.
I say this not because I dismiss Lesley Manville (how can I?; I haven't seen her). A sweep by her this year would irk me because this is one of the best, most diverse year for acclaimed lead actresses we've had in some time, and it seems to me the prizes ought to be split some in recognition of that. (As they weren't in '06, when Cruz, Dench or Streep might have been given a crumb somewhere, rather than Mirren walking off with everything) Plus, this may be stubborn obtuseness on my part, but I'm STILL not 100% sure Manville won't be shunted into supporting by at least one of these groups, who may see a thinner field down there and want a more impressive winner.
So...assume it's not automatically a Manville sweep (or Manville goes to supporting). What happens with the critics? More precisely, what needs to happen for certain actresses? It seems to me Natalie Portman needs to start translating her buzz into actual prizes..., to make this campaign a reality. And to do that she's going to have to overcome loud opponents in either city. I'd say, offhand, she's more likely to triumph in LA, because she's got multiple blockers in NY (Denby and White, for starters), but, even in LA, she'll win over Ken Turan's dead body. And she really does need a critics' group to single her out, or her chances in January will be diminished. Annette Bening, on the other hand, with her Chamber of Commerce support, could wait till the Globes/Broadcasters to make any kind of showing. Bening, of course, also has a decent shot at winning LA -- as might Nicole Kidman, who would also be seriously helped by a win.
My strong feeling about NY is that Jennifer Lawrence will be their candidate, which would just about put her over the top for a nomination. But there's always the possibility someone else slips in -- Michele Williams if Blue Valentine really wins them over; maybe even Tilda Swinton (I'd also watch I Am Love for cinematography). The competition for best actress is so tight this year that each one of these prizes could have a bearing on who ends up being nominated.
In support, I'll be interested to see if Christian Bale is potentially a juggernaut. Geoffrey Rush will make a showing at AMPAS regardless, but if Bale becomes a unanimous choice among critics, he'll be hard to slow down. There are others who could also use the help a win would bring: Andrew Garfield, a strong but not certain possibility for nomination, and, above all, Mark Ruffalo, who's been more or less expected all year, but hasn't shown up in any of the early lists, and might turn out to be the Alfred Molina of this year without a boost.
In supporting actress, beyond answering the Where to put Lesley Manville? question, we'll see if Jacki Weaver can become enough of a critics' darling to overcome her film's poor commercial performance; whether the Fighter ladies are taken seriously by critics or are just populist choices; and whether an off-the-radar possibility like Olivia Williams can be elevated by critical attention.
Predictions in a day or two. For now, thoughts to chew on.
The main best picture question is, will either/both live up to what their reviews have suggested -- a Social Network romp -- or have they prematurely tired of their own consensus, and might this prompt someone to take a flier on something else? (I'd almost bet the National Society will; they'd hate to see a Hurt Locker repeat) And, if not Social Network, what? It doesn't necessarily have to be a film with overwhelmingly strong reviews; it just has to be what a group coalesces around (Affliction somehow finished second in NY in '98,, despite being out-reviewed by any number of films). Judging by the ten best lists dribbling out in NY, it seems Winter's Bone has stuck in many people's minds, and I think that's the best bet for an East Coast upset. LA could surprise in different ways -- they're more likely to fall for King's Speech (which I'd say has no shot in NY), or, having placed Wall E/Dark Knight 1-2 in '08, could swing for Toy Story 3 or Inception. I'd still say the odds favor a Social Network win both places (with Fincher and Sorkin even more highly rated). And none of this -- short of an outright Winter's Bone win in NY -- will have any impact on the season ahead.
The acting awards, though, could. Tom O'Neil's group heavily expects Colin Firth to win in both places. I can barely express how fiercely I doubt that. I think Firth will be a stone-lock in the Broadcast/Globe/SAG portion of the race, but in these early races I'd expect to see more of Ryan Gosling, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco. Of the two groups, LA is certainly more likely to go Firth: there's a Hollywood-ish chunk in their membership -- the ones who voted Helen Hunt and Gloria Stuart second place in 1997. But second place is mostly the best they can achieve; the prize is more likely to go to someone like James Franco. And in NY, I wouldn't even be sure Firth would make the top three (he didn't last year, for a far more critics'-bait performance). My strong sense is that the NYers will want to push their 2006 runner-up Ryan Gosling into the winner's circle, but, if not him, Eisenberg and Franco seem more likely than Firth. And Gosling -- a solid but not assured candidate for nomination -- could use the high-profile boost to get himself more firmly in the conversation. (Eisenberg, as well)
You know what I hope about the best actress category? I hope, for once, the critics can stifle their propensity to swoon unanimously for Mike Leigh's ladies. You have to consider the possibility: Sally Hawkins and Imelda Staunton swept the three majors (the latter albeit in a tie at National); Blethyn won LA in '96. And of course Leigh himself has had at least one film win at each group. To go just by these voters, Mike Leigh is the unparalleled auteur of the era. (Damien is mortified at the thought) But I hope they can restrain themselves this year.
I say this not because I dismiss Lesley Manville (how can I?; I haven't seen her). A sweep by her this year would irk me because this is one of the best, most diverse year for acclaimed lead actresses we've had in some time, and it seems to me the prizes ought to be split some in recognition of that. (As they weren't in '06, when Cruz, Dench or Streep might have been given a crumb somewhere, rather than Mirren walking off with everything) Plus, this may be stubborn obtuseness on my part, but I'm STILL not 100% sure Manville won't be shunted into supporting by at least one of these groups, who may see a thinner field down there and want a more impressive winner.
So...assume it's not automatically a Manville sweep (or Manville goes to supporting). What happens with the critics? More precisely, what needs to happen for certain actresses? It seems to me Natalie Portman needs to start translating her buzz into actual prizes..., to make this campaign a reality. And to do that she's going to have to overcome loud opponents in either city. I'd say, offhand, she's more likely to triumph in LA, because she's got multiple blockers in NY (Denby and White, for starters), but, even in LA, she'll win over Ken Turan's dead body. And she really does need a critics' group to single her out, or her chances in January will be diminished. Annette Bening, on the other hand, with her Chamber of Commerce support, could wait till the Globes/Broadcasters to make any kind of showing. Bening, of course, also has a decent shot at winning LA -- as might Nicole Kidman, who would also be seriously helped by a win.
My strong feeling about NY is that Jennifer Lawrence will be their candidate, which would just about put her over the top for a nomination. But there's always the possibility someone else slips in -- Michele Williams if Blue Valentine really wins them over; maybe even Tilda Swinton (I'd also watch I Am Love for cinematography). The competition for best actress is so tight this year that each one of these prizes could have a bearing on who ends up being nominated.
In support, I'll be interested to see if Christian Bale is potentially a juggernaut. Geoffrey Rush will make a showing at AMPAS regardless, but if Bale becomes a unanimous choice among critics, he'll be hard to slow down. There are others who could also use the help a win would bring: Andrew Garfield, a strong but not certain possibility for nomination, and, above all, Mark Ruffalo, who's been more or less expected all year, but hasn't shown up in any of the early lists, and might turn out to be the Alfred Molina of this year without a boost.
In supporting actress, beyond answering the Where to put Lesley Manville? question, we'll see if Jacki Weaver can become enough of a critics' darling to overcome her film's poor commercial performance; whether the Fighter ladies are taken seriously by critics or are just populist choices; and whether an off-the-radar possibility like Olivia Williams can be elevated by critical attention.
Predictions in a day or two. For now, thoughts to chew on.